TLT Volume speaks volumes, pun intended.Don't forget that another man's trash, is another man's treasure. Volume speaks volumes, pun intended. You know what to do... by stantheinvestingmanUpdated 113
Let's Not Be Blind to our Blindness..!Nassim Taleb's: “My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” He also said: "The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral biases." This phrasing reflects Taleb's critique of traditional economics and his acknowledgment of Kahneman's work on human decision-making, which can be tested and applied in real-world scenarios. Taleb has discussed Daniel Kahneman's research on behavioral economics, particularly Prospect Theory, which studies how people make decisions under uncertainty. A Wisdom from Daniel Kahneman: Not only are we sometimes “blind to the obvious,” but also we are “blind to our blindness.” We all have our own unique experiences and ways of thinking. This can make it hard to see things from a different viewpoint and recognize our own blind spots. Here are some things you can do to overcome this blindness: Be open to feedback: Ask trusted friends or colleagues for their honest opinions. Seek out diverse viewpoints: Read books and articles from people with different backgrounds. Challenge your assumptions: Actively question your own beliefs and biases. By being aware of our limitations, we can start to see the world a little more clearly. Prospect theory is a behavioral economics model developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It challenges the idea that people make decisions based solely on logic and maximizing expected utility (total value of possible outcomes). Instead, Prospect Theory argues that: Decisions are relative: We judge gains and losses relative to a reference point, often our current wealth or situation. Loss aversion: People feel losses more intensely than equivalent gains. A $100 loss might feel worse than a $100 gain is satisfying. Diminishing sensitivity: The impact of gains and losses diminishes as the amount increases. A $10 gain might feel more significant than a $100 gain. Here's how these ideas influence decision-making: Risk aversion for gains: When faced with choices involving gains, people tend to be risk-averse. They might prefer a guaranteed smaller gain over a risky chance of a larger gain. Risk-seeking for losses: When faced with choices involving losses, people might become risk-seeking. They might choose a gamble with a chance to avoid a loss, even if the odds are not in their favor. Prospect theory has numerous applications in understanding human behavior in various fields, including: Investment decisions: Investors might be more likely to hold onto losing stocks to avoid the pain of realizing a loss. Marketing and sales: Framing promotions around avoiding losses can be more effective than highlighting potential gains. Public policy: Policymakers can use prospect theory to understand how people respond to incentives and risks. Is it possible to be wrong and right at the same time??? My answer is Valid Yes..! look at the following chart published 70 days ago it moved in the opposite direction: Now we can see why Claude Shannon said: “We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it.” Educationby MoshkelgoshaUpdated 12
Rolled (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 Short Calls to Feb 21st... for a .28 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20. The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 222
TLT for 15.04 big bear attack is comingFor TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history. In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will be a serious withdrawal with possible reaction sales. In the meantime, I will make a loss as I am in a long position.Shortby Berdem79333
TLT Treasuries Long breaks down under VWAP SHORTTLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023. Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time. Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20. Relative strength trending correlates with price . I conclude, TLT continues to be set up SHORT or alternatively TBT LONG . I will take short trades at weekly highs on a 30-60 minute chart until signs of a reversal are seen on the chart.Shortby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 2
TLT- #TLT Long Idea- $TLT BuysEntry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone. Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea. Take Profit: Discretionary.Longby Just-Technicals0
Bullish Falling Wedge continues on TLTBullish Falling Wedge continues on TLT. Inflation Data is screaming higher for longer, however the Bond Market continues to "prophesy" a Pivot from the Fed. Does the Bond Market see a massive Bank Failure Event in the near future?Longby grumpa06114
Opening (IRA): TLT January 17th 83 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. Unfortunately, when I started laddering out, a March cut was on the table, but that has been pushed back to at least June and possibly September, so I probably got a little bigger in the position than I originally anticipated. That will resolve itself somewhat as shorter duration rungs fall off via take profit or roll-out (probably the former).Longby NaughtyPines0
TLT Roadmap Dec 2023Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024by NeonUpdated 12129
TLT- Are rate cuts postponed? LONGTLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value of existing bonds with the implications of a rate cut postponed beyond June. The faster RSI line has recovered to cross the 50 level lending further support to this long trade.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 4
TLT to $200 by EOY 2025?This is a possibility for TLT brought to you by Goodtexture who is hoping you can appreciate this artwork for its noble character and enthusiastic reprise Longby GoodTexture228
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.19 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point. I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See Post Below), so am getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) short put premium; and (c) dividends for a kind of "triple whammy."Longby NaughtyPines222
$TLT bull flagCan long NASDAQ:TLT here...with a 0.50 cents SL per share Hourly shows SMA support at 93.85 Daily shows SMA support at 94.25 Longby siddheshmuley14622
TLT price action after FOMCMajor buying under 92.66 . The day closed higher even after briefly touching a new low. Fed Chair Powell : Long-term goal is to move to a balance sheet that's mostly treasuries Source : www.youtube.comby stantheinvestingmanUpdated 1
Rolling (IRA): TLT June 21st 86 Short Put to Nov 15th 83... for a .55 credit. Comments: With the June 86 at greater than 50% max, rolled it down and out to the November 15th 83 for a .55 credit (where I currently don't have a "rung" on). I collected .93 for the June 86; with the .55 here, I've collected a total of 1.18. Primarily looking to reduce a smidge of risk in this position, since my highest strike is at the 86.Longby NaughtyPines0
TLT Small upside before FOMCBroke out of a falling wedge pattern. Oversold on the 1hr. There's a great risk to reward ratio here. Set your stop losses accordingly. Uncertainty still looms... by stantheinvestingmanUpdated 3
TLT very bullish energyI dowse stocks and this morning it told me to let the pendulum pick. This seldom occurs, but it went to TLT. It has very bullish energy. Idk if there's news of some sort, or what, but this will be a very large move probably within the next week. Possibly later today. I'm not going to post a target because it seems too unlikely to hit the answer I have, but I'll update when things are moving and I can maybe get more clarity. It did say this will be a spike up and reverse down, so there will be a short opportunity as well if we can get the high nailed down. That's all.Longby JenRzUpdated 1
Opening (IRA): TLT May 17th 88 Short Put... for a 1.08 credit. Comments: Laddering out on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit at or below the cost basis of the shares I've currently got. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Opening (IRA): TLT October 18th 84 Short Put... for a .98 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals at strikes between 85 and 82, assuming they're paying. This is naturally longer-dated than most will want to go, but is part of a TLT position made up of covered calls (stock + short call) and short puts, so that I'm getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) dividends; and (c) short put premium over time. Alternatively, it's a "hmm, I really need to get more BP deployed here because I don't really have shit on at the moment" sort of thing ... .Longby NaughtyPines331
TLT to $90 by 3/22/2024TLT hit resistance at its' 03/2023 weekly channel and its' 12/23/2023 daily channel and is likely to move down to $90 per share by 03/22/2024.Shortby grumpa06224
$TLT an Underdog StoryIf it was Rocky Balboa vs the NASDAQ:TLT I'd take the TLT every time.. Not only is TLT Bull Flagging on the dominant chat, it also formed a mean double bottom. Combined with the divergent and imminent positive crossing on the CCI, i'd say we have one hell of a breakout on our hands Coming Soon™Longby Midgar-0
Hidden Bullish Signals Detected Ahead of US Inflation ReportTomorrow it's time again: The US inflation data will be released. Over the past two years, the significance of this report has increased significantly, as it allows conclusions to be drawn about the future monetary policy of the Fed. Accordingly, the monthly event is associated with a lot of volatility, comparable to that seen when the labor market data is released - at least. A look at the 10-year government bonds gives us an idea of how the data will turn out and, in particular, how the market will react to it. Initially, from a chart technical perspective, we see a clear hidden bullish divergence between price and the VOLD indicator. This divergence is most pronounced on the M30 chart, allowing for conclusions about price movements within the next few days, roughly until the end of the week. A look at the put-call sentiment of the bond futures (ZNM24) also shows a very bearish assessment by investors - a signal that has repeatedly proven to be an excellent contrarian indicator. Therefore, we expect the bond price to be positively influenced by the upcoming data and accordingly, interest rates to decline. This, in turn, is bullish for the US stock markets. There are thus good reasons to be optimistic about the new week.Longby Ochlokrat1
Bond outlook is improvingThis week the TLT long-term US Treasury bond ETF bounced from a key support level. Meanwhile, the three-month rate of change on core PCE—the Fed's preferred inflation measure—dropped to 2.2%, near the Fed's 2% target. With a looming government shutdown, we're also seeing the first serious Congressional effort to impose fiscal discipline in a long time. Any serious spending reduction would be positive for US bonds. I don't think the economy is in imminent trouble, so I don't expect bond prices to rapidly climb from here. But I do think the worst of the selloff is probably done and it's a decent time to lock in that ultra low-risk mid-4% return.Longby ChristopherCarrollSmithUpdated 7717