Russell 2000 futures closed at cycle highs on Wednesday, benefitting apparently from optimism Donald Trump will win the Presidential election. That may be so, but for the US small cap space, technical signals often come across as far more important when it comes to directional risks than any fundamental factor.
The latest rally was sparked by a break of downtrend...
Gold had been in a consolidation phase over the past couple of weeks, before staging a breakout attempt this week. Its earlier rally came to a halt just slightly below its all-time high of $2685 hit in September. This is the bear's first real attempt to cause a bit of a reversal in prices, but it is far too early to jump into any conclusions.
While it remains to...
The USD/CAD epic winning streak is over, delivering an obvious topping signal on Tuesday.
There’s a couple of options available to traders: the first would be to sell now with a stop either above 1.3792 or Monday’s high of 1.3806. Possible targets include 1.3700 or 1.3647, depending on the risk-reward ratio you’re looking for.
The other would be to wait for a...
Support and resistance levels are fundamental concepts in technical analysis, widely used by traders across asset classes, strategies, and trading techniques. In this post, we’ll cover the basics of support and resistance so that any trader following us here on TradingView can have a foundation to work with.
What is Support?
Support is a price level where a...
The GBP/USD finally found some mild buying interest in the last few days, but will it be enough to reverse the trend remains to be seen. Last week, we had some weaker US jobless claims and consumer sentiment data, helping to reduce the appeal of US dollar as traders’ confidence in the Fed’s ability to cut rates grew further. Not that there were many doubts but...
Everyone wants to dunk on the euro and buy dollars right now, explaining why EUR/USD continues to grind lower. With signs of US economic exceptionalism evident again, the number of Fed rate cuts expected this cycle continues to dwindle just as the amount of easing from the ECB ramps up.
USD looks great, EUR does not. But that’s now priced in, meaning we may need...
USD/MXN seems to be consolidating within the September range after closing below the 50-Day SMA (19.4039) for the first time since May, but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low (19.1112) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.
USD/MXN may no longer reflect the bullish trend from earlier this year amid the flattening...
USD/CAD sits just below a known level heading into Tuesday’s Canadian inflation report, providing a potential setup for bulls or bears depending on the price action evolves.
1.3792 is the level in question, acting as both support and resistance on multiple occasions earlier this year. Sitting less than 10 pips away, how the price interacts with the level before...
Oil prices have been edging higher from their earlier lows. Understandably, traders do not want to be caught holding short bets on oil heading into the long weekend. The potential for Israel to strike Iran could see oil prices gap higher at the Asian open next week. There’s also the potential that China’s finance minister will announce substantive fiscal support...
If you want clues on directional risks for the US dollar, there are worse places to look than US 2-year Treasury note futures, shown in the left-hand pane of the chart. As one of the most liquid futures contracts globally, the price signals it provides can be very informative for broader markets, especially in the FX universe.
Having tumbled most of October,...
USD/JPY has continued to rally after last month's false breakout at the 140.00 handle, which is part of a large zone of longer-term support spanning from 139.28 up to 140.30.
I tracked that setup in these ideas, first with the support test itself:
and then the initial bounce:
and then the build of a falling wedge + the higher-low from the FOMC rate cut:...
It was a fast turn for EUR/USD last week and that move has grinded lower again this week, pushing below the 1.0943-1.0960 zone. Initially, that zone held the lows last Friday and through the first couple days of this week, but the 1.1000 handle was defended by sellers with this week's swing high coming a mere 2.7 pips away from the big figure.
This is similar to...
Shortly, US CPI will be released at 8:30am EDT or 13:30 BST.
Headline CPI is expected to print +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y (vs. 2.5% last)
Core CPI is seen at +0.2% or +3.2% y/y (unchanged from prev reading).
The inflation data will need to be some distance away from expectations to change the course of the dollar, which has been on the rise in the last week...
Nasdaq 100 futures have closed above 20370 for the first time since July 16, providing a platform for bullish trades to be established with a tight stop below for protection. The record high of 20984 seems an appropriate initial target.
Granted, the bullish move wasn’t underpinned by meaningful volumes, which would have been nice to see. But RSI (14) has broken...
The S&P 500 has been quite resilient despite the Chinese stock market sell-off, raised geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over the upcoming earnings results and not to mention US presidential election.
You would think that these risk events would weigh on risk appetite somewhat but so far this hasn't been the case.
Still, be on the look out for...
NZD/USD is testing the 200-day moving average in the wake of the RBNZ rate decision, a level that one glance tells you is important from a directional risk perspective. Momentum indicators continue to generate bearish signals, but I'm letting the price action tell me what to do near-term.
If the 200-day moving average holds you could initiate longs with a stop...
Silver has now failed t break the $32.00 level on multiple occasions - but it may do so soon Still, the fact that we have tried to take out the May high of $32.51 twice in as many weeks and have failed to hold there may be a sign of waning bullish momentum. At the time of writing, silver was still holding above key support in around the $31.35 - $31.50 area (blude...
It was the long-term fibo level at 1.1212 that has so far marked the 2024 high.
EUR/USD had a full head of steam in the first two months of Q3, eventually testing the 1.1200 level. And this was happening even as USD was setting fresh yearly lows, but even the 'super sized' rate cut from the Fed couldn't compel DXY bears to run with a trend and, in-turn, EUR/USD...
