Bitcoin Long-Term Forecast: $10k in 2024, <$6K in 2025
Based on Neowave principles, the chances are high that we have just finished wave-D and are now beginning wave-E. Wave-D is now time similar to waves-C and B, which means we're likely forming a diametric. The internals of wave-D have also formed into a contracting triangle which is now breaking to the downside.
Momentum, price action indicators, moving averages, fundamentals, and macro are all confirming that a top has formed here.
Wave-E is likely to take us to around $10k by the halving, which is estimated to be in April. After the halving we'll probably see a small run to around $20k for wave-F during the rest of 2024. Following that run we'll see one final crash to under or around $6k in the first half of 2025. This is likely to be the wave that knocks out Microstrategy and many other companies which have been recklessly over-leveraged. After these companies go under, we can begin the next major bull market which will take BTC to well over $100k.
The next bull run will see major institutional adoption as new US federal regulations or supreme court rulings provide widespread regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency markets in 2025. The majority of institutions will simply not participate in crypto markets until there is regulatory clarity. This widespread institutional adoption is necessary for cryptocurrencies to be able to reach the promised land of multi-trillion dollar market capitalizations, because the vast majority of global wealth is parked in major institutions and corporations.
Momentum, price action indicators, moving averages, fundamentals, and macro are all confirming that a top has formed here.
Wave-E is likely to take us to around $10k by the halving, which is estimated to be in April. After the halving we'll probably see a small run to around $20k for wave-F during the rest of 2024. Following that run we'll see one final crash to under or around $6k in the first half of 2025. This is likely to be the wave that knocks out Microstrategy and many other companies which have been recklessly over-leveraged. After these companies go under, we can begin the next major bull market which will take BTC to well over $100k.
The next bull run will see major institutional adoption as new US federal regulations or supreme court rulings provide widespread regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency markets in 2025. The majority of institutions will simply not participate in crypto markets until there is regulatory clarity. This widespread institutional adoption is necessary for cryptocurrencies to be able to reach the promised land of multi-trillion dollar market capitalizations, because the vast majority of global wealth is parked in major institutions and corporations.
Trade closed manually:
As mentioned on my short-term post, it does seem like wave-D (or possible wave-X) could continue on for the rest of the year before we see a breakdown. With this in mind I've taken profit on all shorts and opened some longs.