Price action on BTC is mirroring the 2nd half of 2021, wave analysis remains bearish, bearish momentum divergences are increasing, regulatory headwinds are getting stronger, sentiment is high and traders are becoming increasingly arrogant, memecoins like PEPE are echoing SHIB, BTC is stuck under a multi-year resistance line, fundamentally there are still several firms which have a very high probability of bankruptcy lurking about (Microstrategy, DCG, etc.).
It seems like these degenerate over-leveraged firms must be taken out before we can begin the next bull market. Smart money is waiting to buy their blood before pushing through regulatory clarity next year. Then a fundamental shift can happen and the real bull market can begin. After 2-3 years of bear market and an 85% drop in price, sentiment will finally be low enough for the market to find a true bottom, and this bear market will be similar time and size as the previous bear markets.
Longer-term wave structure, while not being specifically clear and giving many different possibilities, sets us up with a perfect Rule of Reserve Logic scenario which indicates that we are not at the end but near the middle of the bear market. Shorter-term wave structure seems to be mimicking wave-b, indicating we are at the end of this wave up which began in January.
All signs continue to point towards a bearish continuation happening relatively soon.
It seems like these degenerate over-leveraged firms must be taken out before we can begin the next bull market. Smart money is waiting to buy their blood before pushing through regulatory clarity next year. Then a fundamental shift can happen and the real bull market can begin. After 2-3 years of bear market and an 85% drop in price, sentiment will finally be low enough for the market to find a true bottom, and this bear market will be similar time and size as the previous bear markets.
Longer-term wave structure, while not being specifically clear and giving many different possibilities, sets us up with a perfect Rule of Reserve Logic scenario which indicates that we are not at the end but near the middle of the bear market. Shorter-term wave structure seems to be mimicking wave-b, indicating we are at the end of this wave up which began in January.
All signs continue to point towards a bearish continuation happening relatively soon.
Comment:
Wave-X could also be Wave-D as the chart I posted in May has drawn. Since wave-X puts us close to the center we will consider wave-X the more likely possibility, but both are still possible. Either way when Wave-X/D is finished we should see a large move down. Whether that ends by the end of this year or drags on for another 1-2 years will have to be determined when we have more information in the future.
Comment:
To be more clear, wave-D on this chart should end sometime around August, and then we will begin the next wave down. The overall bear market probably won't end for about 2 years from now.
A diametric for the entire bear market is probably the most likely pattern to form, but if wave-D is actually an X-wave then we will see a double combination which will basically have the same effect of taking about 2 years to finish and dropping to around 5-10k.
A neutral triangle is the least likely scenario because it wouldn't be able to reach at least 10k which is the minimum required price target for this bear market, so a shorter-term bear market ending this year or even next year probably isn't going to happen.
To be more clear, wave-D on this chart should end sometime around August, and then we will begin the next wave down. The overall bear market probably won't end for about 2 years from now.
A diametric for the entire bear market is probably the most likely pattern to form, but if wave-D is actually an X-wave then we will see a double combination which will basically have the same effect of taking about 2 years to finish and dropping to around 5-10k.
A neutral triangle is the least likely scenario because it wouldn't be able to reach at least 10k which is the minimum required price target for this bear market, so a shorter-term bear market ending this year or even next year probably isn't going to happen.
Comment:
In 2 years, after the bear market is finished, we will probably see the biggest, fastest bull market since 2011, definitely since at least 2017. And in the longer-term Bitcoin will easily exceed $1M. After congress passes definitive regulations, we will see real institutional adoption which is going to be needed to bring crypto prices to a level that is on par with other major asset classes such as currencies, stocks, and commodities.
Comment:
Wave-e extended slightly further than originally forecasted on June 20th, but now with the hype generated from the XRP victory we have likely reached a manic top and have now set up multiple sell signals indicated a top has formed here.
Based on the long-term wave forecast, there is a good chance we will not be above 32k for 2+ years.
Wave-e extended slightly further than originally forecasted on June 20th, but now with the hype generated from the XRP victory we have likely reached a manic top and have now set up multiple sell signals indicated a top has formed here.
Based on the long-term wave forecast, there is a good chance we will not be above 32k for 2+ years.
Some signs here that wave-d has ended and was much shorter than originally anticipated. We could now be in wave-e which should be the final wave of wave-X before we see a bigger move down. Wave-e will probably be at least 61.8% of wave-a and could potentially exceed the high of wave-c.