Trying to figure out the target for the bitcoin bubble that usually occurs after the all-time high.
We've seen in the past that bitcoin usually has a big correction after topping of 94%, 86%, 84% and 78%. The bear markets are bloody, but still a bit softer each time while the market majors, so I am assuming a 70% decline this time.
I also assume that the log regression support will hold during the next bear market, so we can expect bitcoin to bottom at around 50k to 100k, but most likely around 50-75k depending on how long it takes to bottom. To have such a bloody bear market and then bottom around there, btc would have to go much higher before that, something around 180k-260k.
Another option we have is to check the Fib extension levels. The 2013 and 2017 bubbles topped at or above the 17.944 fib, while the weak 2021 bubble topped at the 3.618 fib. These fibs would point to 209k and 979k.
The third option I see is to use the top line of the log regression (marked as red line) which is around 300k-400k.
Since it is unlikely for btc to go above the log regression high, it is very unlikely for bitcoin to hit the 979k target.
To compare the current move with previous bubbles, I added the 2017 and 2021 fractals after BTC hit its all-time high.
My conclusion from this is that I think 180k is a conservative target that will very likely be hit, 240k is also still likely and up to 350k is on the cards. Anything above that is unlikely but not impossible.
We also need to remember that the ETF and the arrival of institutions can change the market dynamics so that past price movements may have become less relevant.
source for Bitcoin Log regression, Log/Log power law: charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
We've seen in the past that bitcoin usually has a big correction after topping of 94%, 86%, 84% and 78%. The bear markets are bloody, but still a bit softer each time while the market majors, so I am assuming a 70% decline this time.
I also assume that the log regression support will hold during the next bear market, so we can expect bitcoin to bottom at around 50k to 100k, but most likely around 50-75k depending on how long it takes to bottom. To have such a bloody bear market and then bottom around there, btc would have to go much higher before that, something around 180k-260k.
Another option we have is to check the Fib extension levels. The 2013 and 2017 bubbles topped at or above the 17.944 fib, while the weak 2021 bubble topped at the 3.618 fib. These fibs would point to 209k and 979k.
The third option I see is to use the top line of the log regression (marked as red line) which is around 300k-400k.
Since it is unlikely for btc to go above the log regression high, it is very unlikely for bitcoin to hit the 979k target.
To compare the current move with previous bubbles, I added the 2017 and 2021 fractals after BTC hit its all-time high.
My conclusion from this is that I think 180k is a conservative target that will very likely be hit, 240k is also still likely and up to 350k is on the cards. Anything above that is unlikely but not impossible.
We also need to remember that the ETF and the arrival of institutions can change the market dynamics so that past price movements may have become less relevant.
source for Bitcoin Log regression, Log/Log power law: charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
Comment:
Regarding the term bubble vs. cycle: in 2013 and 2017, when BTC reached the 17.944 fib, we talked about the bitcoin "bubble", while since 2021 we talk more about the bitcoin "cycle". However, I think they mean the same thing and there will be blood after. But first we will ride it to the top.
