You can only hit your head on the ceiling sooo many times...

Opened shorts at 7400 and got a second chance at 7200. Everyone was yelling about wedge breakdown a little too early, got faked out by this last kiss of the ceiling (that was immediately retraced 100%) 😂

YES - I've got two opposing harmonics plotted out, and it's premature for either of them. That's the whole damn point. Don't care if it's kosher, it helps me see potential outcomes, combined with the fib retrace and wedge lines.

For either harmonic, however, short-term we're going down first. And it just so happens that it's not until just after The Halvening that we will have a decision point to either bulltrap back up to $9000 (for the bearish bat) or fall to $3333 (for the (bullish crab).

Blue Arrows indicate my current trade plan, projected waaaaaay out. Obviously farther than I can know for sure 😜

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Comment:

alright, I should acknowledge the reality that BTC got into this dump because of the global market selloffs (e.g. DJI dumping on Feb 24th). All the impulse energy is from following stocks -- so this rising channel breakdown timing is **also** dependent on a new dump impulse to follow. That means that no matter how juicy the TA is for BTC to drop already, it's stuck in a holding pattern, because stocks are calling the dump. So the same bearish forecast is in force, but the precise *moment* that volume arrives (instead of this sideways top chop) is not determined by crypto-land.

Assuming DJI has one last-gasp reach to the 0.618 before breaking down severely, that could look like this (with peak around April 20th)

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*IF* that's how the major indices play out, that leaves 5 days of *not dumping* for BTC to make its own final bulltrap. This is a classic case of "we ain't dumping yet, so let's keep creeping up the current channel". Here's my scenario for either a double top at 7450 or a margin-squeezing fake breakout to 8000 around the same April 20th timeframe. Neither of which change my bearish outlook, only the height of my additional shorts 😉

Comment:

NOTE: in keeping with the idea that the global markets are dragging BTC around, above I reframed the fibs for this series going back to Feb 24th. That, combined with my final target of $3333 means we actually did touch the 0.618 retrace just perfectly at 7450, and will either double-top that again OR get an incredible kiss of the 0.705 OTE zone in the most bullish scenario

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yes, we dropped a tiny bit out of the rising channel, but the resulting pump to the falling channel top side burst right out - and I fully expect us to continue to rise now until 7450 (TP1) or 8080 (TP2) before monday morning, so I'm short-term long since $6600. Will happily open new shorts at those targets, as I still expect us to head to $3300 --- but BTC won't do so until stocks lead the way with another strong dump.

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still long since 6600 (sold 7200 and rebought 6850)

Comment:

switched to this chart a few days ago, tracking CME futures is a bit more precise
www.tradingview.com/...-of-rebound-channel/