Bitcoin on H12 - when is it going up?
Updated
If you look at the H12 chart, then you will see that a channel of blue lines is emerging. The price movement may well follow the pattern of Wolfe waves. Thus, the fourth wave will start somewhere at the level of 20,000 - 20,400 USD. (POC for horizontal volumes is around 20,300 USD). Also, the Stoch RSI is currently supporting the price decline.
Take into consideration the fact that point X on the red line (local minimum) occured as a result of a sharp fall from the local maximum of 32,400 USD. The angle of point X relative to the 32.400 USD point is too narrow. This factor offers supports to the formation of point 6 according to Wolfe waves.
In general, Bitcoin is at an accumulation stage, where the flat may last another 2-3 weeks. Therefore, the price rise to 28,000-30,000 USD may well not take place until point 6 is formed. However, it is worth tracking the price movement on 4H, 8H, 1D. Afterall, this is a market! Everything is possible!
Take into consideration the fact that point X on the red line (local minimum) occured as a result of a sharp fall from the local maximum of 32,400 USD. The angle of point X relative to the 32.400 USD point is too narrow. This factor offers supports to the formation of point 6 according to Wolfe waves.
In general, Bitcoin is at an accumulation stage, where the flat may last another 2-3 weeks. Therefore, the price rise to 28,000-30,000 USD may well not take place until point 6 is formed. However, it is worth tracking the price movement on 4H, 8H, 1D. Afterall, this is a market! Everything is possible!
Note
I would like to offer a second variation for price movement using the Wyckoff method. For me, this price movement seems more plausible, because after a significant drop from 48,000 to 17,600 USD the process of accumulating an asset is inevitable and it takes time.
The chart above show the main trendline in brown colour + horizontal resistance lines in red colour and support lines in green colour. This is the range within which the accumulation phase takes place. The Wyckoff's price movement is presented in dark red (text marks are also in red). The Wolfe's price movement is now presented in green colour (text marks 1-6)!
The bottom line is that the price reversal will begin when the price reaches the SPRING point according to Wyckoff or point 6 according to Wolfe - in this instance it's the same thing. This point will be just below the current minimum of 17,600 USD plus/minus.
Please note that the trajectory of the price movement on the chart is approximate!
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The price has reached the lower line of the blue channel. The POC is concentrated here, so an A-B-C bounce to 20,500-21,000 USD is possible before the price attempts to break 18,665 USD. Worth watching the price movement on 4H.Note
I'm updating the chart. Wyckoff is the way to go. Most likely, the price will test the local minimum and will break through by 200-400 points in order to collect current stops, mislead shortists and create a new support line. Therefore, a good LONG entry point would be around 17,600-17,300 USD.
Note
The rebound from the blue line took place as expected. It is plausible to expect the price to start falling in the form of new impulse. The reasons supporting this are:
1. Rising wedge;
2. Price divergence in relation to vertical volumes;
3. Reversal at the brown trend line;
4. Stock RSI on H4 is ready to decline.
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We got a good rebound from the rising wedge on H1. Wave 5 is also completed. I went short. Expect to take main TP in the POC area at around 19,350 USD.
Note
The price is playing around at the border of point 5 according to Elliott (the very first/top chart). Judging by the vertical volume on H12, the crowd just rushed in looking for a pump. In my view, price reversal could take place at around 22,400-23,100 USD unless the price breaks above 23,000 and confirms its position above this resistance level.Currently Stoch RSI is positioning itself for a fall on 12H. Should wait for more signals on indicators and some candle pattern reversal on 4H.
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These are five TP levels in my view!
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1. Obvious price divergence against volume.
2. The price bounced off the resistance line. A large volume confirmed this.
3. The purple area is the sales area. As soon as the price consolidates in it, most likely at POC 2, the price should continue its downward movement collecting 7 stops on the way to 17,600 USD!
Note
My bad! My TA should say Wolfe waves, not Elliott! A genuine typo!Trade active
1. A secondary bounce off on 15M.
2. The price is heading in the same direction as the volume.
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Unless the price gets a confirmation above the resistance lines, my strategy is active.
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Due to yesterday's news from the FED, the price jumped up and is currently in the growth's zone. However, it has not broken through the support level of the trend line in brown colour. The news often tend to swing. The conditions for the Wolfe waves are still met. Therefore, it is worth watching how the price will move once 38.2 and 61.8 is reached. The red line also shows a downtrend. The price should consolidate below it for further decline. A secondary test to the upper brown line is possible.
Pay attention to the divergence of the volume against the price.
Should the price get a fix ABOVE the trend lines, then it is worth considering an upward movement to 29,500 USD.
Note
Wolfe waves are no longer valid! The price just reached the top of the resistance line. At this level it's overbought. It should go down shortly. It may break the resistance and then go down or can go down right away.
What's important is how the price will behave at it's 38.2 or 61.8 Fib when it's pulled down and how and where it consolidates.
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At first glance, it looks as if the price will continue to move up. But is this a plausible scenario?
1. The blue line is the price movement's average. Due to the pin bar on July 20, the price did not consolidate above the line. If today the price also closes with a pin bar, then this will be a rebound from the average!
2. Currently there is a divergence of vertical volumes against the price! The Stoch RSI is also showing a divergence since July 20 against the price!
3. The wave format since June 18 is showing re-distribution schematics. There were two tests to the top and none to the minimum (June 18). Of course, accumulation can go through an upward channel, however, after an upward impulse, the price should go down to 38.2 or 61.8, and then break through the current maximum.
4. The black line is an approximate trend line on 1W. As you can see it is below the local minimum. To end its movement from 68.7K, the price should touch this line as a closing remark.
Therefore, if the price does not break through the blue line average and get a confirmation above it, it may be premature to go LONG. In general, we should observe 1D and 1W for a better speculation!
Note
4H is showing signs of a pull back.
1. Horizontal volumes show divergence.
2. MACD shows divergence.
3. Stoch RSI shows divergence.
4. Price has reached 0.5 on Fib and is inside a falling wedge .
If the reversal is confirmed around 22,500 USD, then I think the price will go towards 23,870 USD to close a gap on several exchanges. Also, this will be the area of 61.8% on Fib.
Note
I have started a new project "Making a million"
As a result, I am closing this particular article.
For new trading signals, please use a new current article. Click here.
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