Bitcoinforecast
BTC The State NowHere’s a quick market update with a timeline and trend analysis :
- As always, it’s as simple as checking the colors and trends in the graphic.
- We’re currently in a phase of solid consolidation.
- The bull run hasn’t started yet, but in time, BTC is expected to go parabolic, as it usually does.
- The current cycle is taking longer to play out.
- The differences between 2020 and 2024 corrections are clear. Back in 2020, BTC was still maturing, not widely accepted, and impacted by the Covid crisis.
- In 2023, BTC has gained more recognition with ETFs, attracted wealthy investors, and is evolving into a true store of value.
- For these reasons, TheKing may be retracing, but it’s doing so with power and resilience.
- Everyone wants a piece of the cake, which is why Bitcoin's price remains elevated.
Just HODL and you'll be rewarded in the long run.
Happy Tr4Ding
Will history repeat itself ? (A look at Bitcoin Halving)What is bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin halving is a major event that occurs every four years on the Bitcoin network. It involves the reduction of the block reward that miners receive for adding new blocks of transactions to the blockchain. The block reward was initially set at 50 BTC when the Bitcoin network first launched, and it has been halved twice since then. The first halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the block reward to 25 BTC, and the second halving occurred in July 2016, reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. The most recent halving occurred on May 11th, 2020, and reduced the block reward to 6.25 BTC. This process is designed to keep the total supply of bitcoin limited and controlled, helping to preserve its value over time. It is a significant event in the Bitcoin community and is often seen as a catalyst for price movements in the cryptocurrency market.
The price of bitcoin has historically trended upwards in the months and years following previous halving events. For example, the price of bitcoin began to rise significantly in the months leading up to the first halving event in November 2012, and it continued to climb in the years following the event. Similarly, the price of bitcoin increased significantly in the months leading up to the second halving event in July 2016, and it reached an all-time high of almost $20,000 in December 2017, several months after the event.
In the above chart, we can see a similar pattern with each Bitcoin halving cycle. In the first halving cycle the price of bitcoin was trending downward until the halving event and after the halving, it started moving upward and reached the peak price of around 1100 USD and started the downtrend for the upcoming bear run till the next bitcoin halving cycle.
Similarly in the second halving cycle bitcoin started moving upward after the halving and reached the ATH price of around 20,000 USD and initiating the next downtrend cycle.
And in the latest halving cycle the price moved downward until the halving cycle and started moving upwards after the halving and reached the ATH of around 69,000 USD and initiating a new bear trend.
Currently, we are in a bear market (crypto winter until the next bitcoin half which is supposed to occur on April 2024, we can expect a clear uptrend after the bitcoin halving cycle and to reach a new ATH.
In my personal opinion, this is a great opportunity to invest in Bitcoin and increase your overall bitcoin holdings. If history repeats itself then we will see a new ATH in the next 2 years. (Based on past data bitcoin tends to hit new ATH within 1 year of the halving)
Stay tuned for more long-term crypto analysis and education content.
Thanks
Hexa
🔥How much can the Crypto market capitalization grow by 2025🔥Today we want to share with you our observations and thoughts on how the total capitalization of the crypto market can grow in the future.
You have probably already noticed that in all markets the history of market participants' behavior and, accordingly, asset prices is cyclical.
The cryptocurrency market is no exception.
Here is a global chart of the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies in different periods of the market.
Despite the fact that in different periods there were different factors of growth or decline of the cryptocurrency market, such as the ICO alt-season 2017 and the bear market 2018 or the DeFi boom of 2020-2021 and the current exhausting market's decline. There is a clear cyclicality (of course, a statistical error of 1-2 weeks over such a long period of time is acceptable)
So, 1 candle or bar on the chart is 1 trading week and that's what we have:
from the high of 2017 to the low of 2018 - +/- 49 weeks have passed
from the high of 2021 to the low of 2022 - +/- 52 weeks have passed (of course, if an absolute annual minimum was recorded last week)
from 2017 high to "BTC halving 2020" 123 weeks have passed
from the high of 2021 to "BTC halving 2024" may take +/- 125 weeks (the approximate date is April 2024, but the date may move, depending on the capacity that will be connected to mine BTC blocks. Halving will take place on block 840000)
after "BTC halving 2016", the crypto market maintained a rapid growth trend for 77 weeks
after "BTC halving 2020", the crypto market maintained a rapid growth trend for 78 weeks
after "BTC halving 2024", we project a rapid growth trend of 79 weeks. Accordingly, the future growth trend in the cryptocurrency market may reach its maximum around the middle of autumn 2025.
We also designed 2 fractals of a possible path of growth of the total capitalization of the crypto market.
The white fractal indicates growth with a maximum value of +/- $13 trillion.
The blue fractal indicates growth with a maximum value of +/- $26 trillion.
In order to understand whether it is a lot or not, we will give you some examples of the current capitalization of certain markets:
SP500 +/- $33 trillion
Gold +/- $11 trillion
Silver +/- $1 trillion
Cryptocurrencies +/- $800 billion
Earlier, we made an idea where we made similar calculations on the BTCUSDT chart
So, if you are interested in what mark the Bitcoin price can reach at the end of 2025, we invite you to view it:
If you are interested in the current situation on the BTCUSDT chart and the prospects of price movement for the next week, we invite you to read this idea:
_____________________
Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Bitcoin's Next Move: Bullish Continuation or Bearish Reversal?Hey, traders! Artem here with another Bitcoin update. Let's dive into the 4-hour chart and explore the recent price action to see what’s been happening since last week.
Bitcoin has broken through key levels , hitting a new high of $66,566 last Friday , and this could signal a potential uptrend . But is it all bullish, or should we watch out for a reversal?
On the chart, we’ve got a fresh Higher High (HH) at $66,566 and a Higher Low (HL) at $52,400 , which typically suggests bullish momentum. However, there's a Rising Wedge pattern forming , which is often a bearish signal . Bitcoin has broken out of the wedge, moving down from $66,000 and is now trading around $63,570 , near a key support level at $62,800 (marked in blue).
If this support holds, we could see some sideways movement followed by an upward continuation. But if the selling pressure continues and $62,800 fails, we might see a further decline toward $60,848 , with $61,824 (marked in red) as a critical level to watch.
What’s your take on Bitcoin this week? Are we going long or short? Share your opinion in the comments – I’d love to hear your strategy!
If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and follow for more market updates. Let's see where Bitcoin takes us next!
The next target of the Bitcoin cycle is the historically MVRV?Bitcoin's price is currently overbought locally. Yesterday, the price reacted with a decline of 4.9%. This was the first response, and now it’s important to hold the level of $62,700–$61,800. A breakdown below this level would signal a trend reversal to a downward trend with the first target being the imbalance zone at $52,500–$49,550, as marked on the chart. I would like to see investor support manifest in this imbalance zone, but if I don’t observe sufficient buying volume, I will expect a swift reversal and a breakdown towards the key on-chain level, the MVRV Pricing Bands (-0.5sd). This is a critically important level from which strong Bitcoin trends have historically formed in a broader perspective.
In a positive economic environment, there is a chance of a rebound from the $62,700 support zone, possibly forming a divergence and a potential double top. The reaction of sellers during the bounce from $62,700 will play a significant global role. If the price consolidates above $67,000–$68,500, then we could see a BullRun!
BITCOIN ULTIMATE PARABOLIC CURVE CHART | Insane $181,267 Target!🟢 Hello, fellow traders! I’m excited to share an update on Bitcoin price prediction and the potential implications of the Parabolic Curve pattern we witnessing at the moment!
Today, let’s dive into the Parabolic Curve as Bitcoin approached the end point of Base 4. Understanding this pattern can help us evaluate future trading opportunities.
The Parabolic Curve often surfaces near the culmination of major market surges, marking the end result of multiple base formation breaks. This pattern is typically seen in growth assets with innovative technology or visionary leadership — Bitcoin is a prime example.
Last year, at the pivotal point of Base 3 , indicated by the "X" on the chart at $25,700 , Bitcoin doubled in a remarkably short timeframe.
The hallmark of this pattern was its staircase-like formation, where the price created short-term bases before catapulting to new highs, repeating this cycle multiple times during its ascent.
In my analysis using Fibonacci tools and Elliott Waves , I've observed that:
Base 4 in the range between the $72,759 resistance and $55,257 support , with lowest spike at $49,000 .
The anticipated sell zone for the parabolic move was positioned between $149,175 and $181,267 .
This parabolic curve, reminiscent of a rocket's trajectory, has demonstrated significant persistence. However, as we saw, caution is a key as this pattern near completion; rapid upward momentum can conclude abruptly, resulting in price declines that outpace previous gains.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's recent movements? Did you spot the Parabolic Curve unfolding as anticipated? Share your insights in the comments below — I’d love to hear your perspective!
Your support means the world to me, so if you found this analysis valuable, please smash that like button and follow for more insights!
Bitcoin Eyes $64,928: Will the Double Bottom Confirm?Hello, fellow traders! Today, I’m diving into Bitcoin’s recent price action following the Fed's rate cut decision.
Bitcoin has been stuck in a range for some time, and the recent -50bps rate cut has triggered a positive market reaction. Let's break down what this could mean for Bitcoin's next move, with a focus on the developing Double Bottom pattern.
Current Situation: After the Fed's decision on September 18th, Bitcoin is showing signs of upward momentum. However, it's still forming a Double Bottom pattern, which needs to move up to the neckline at $64,928 to confirm a potential breakout.
What to Watch: The key target level for a bullish continuation is $69,607 . Currently, we only have a Higher Low established on September 7th, which hints at a possible shift in market sentiment.
Risks: The invalidation level is around $53,968 . If Bitcoin drops below this, it would form a Lower Low, potentially signaling a bearish trend.
What do you think, traders? Will Bitcoin break through the neckline, or are we in for another pullback? Share your thoughts in the comments – I'd love to hear your perspective on this pattern!
If you found this analysis helpful, please give it a like and follow for more insights. Let’s keep an eye on Bitcoin’s next moves together! Feel free to ask any questions or request an analysis of another asset in the comments.
Bitcoin , What happened to Him! ? Based on Elliott's theoryIn The Name Of God, Who created the pen
THE BEAR RETURN TO THE CAVE
next target about 40000$
i think if power of correction wave in the primary cycle between 70% to 80%
then
In the future, buy bitcoin as close as possible to the double horizontal black lines .
double black lines = BIG-TICKET in Investing Long-Term
thank u 4 notice
BITCOIN in trouble? check this out first... There is no doubt that Bitcoin is in a downward trending channel. As you can see in this analysis, Bitcoin has been in a bearish sequence since the highest point (#1), bouncing within the channel until it was rejected at point #5, which did not break through our green confirmation zone and instead dropped to the purple inefficiency zone.
If you look closely, the purple inefficiency zone has shown significant strength for months (since April). It's a crucial area because when the price reaches it, there is a strong volume and buying pressure.
There are only two possible moves the price could make this week:
Move 1: The price could stay in our purple inefficiency zone and consolidate, accumulating for its next bullish trend. Note: Point #5 was a total rejection and decided to disrupt the sequence that Bitcoin had from point #1.
Move 2: The price could simply respect a large-scale supply and demand zone, in which case we might see the price continue to drop, allowing it to enter a demand zone and then take off into a bullish market.
What will happen? We really don't know, but what we can conclude from this postis that since the beginning of this analysis several weeks ago, the price has moved in our favor just by using basic price action concepts.I am very satisfied with this analysis, and I'm glad you were able to benefit from it, if you have been following this analysis closely, The price has been moving according to our prediction, And whenever I see these kinds of charts or analyses, I remember the words my mentor used to tell me: always remember that the price action is always right.
I sincerely appreciate your trust and support in my study.
I send you a warm greeting, and always stay alert for the next move.
-RM
Bitcoin must make these 2 key moves !As we can see on the chart, the price remains stuck in the inefficiency zone, showing a lot of liquidity since last week. Over the past two days, the price has resumed an upward trend, but it is still moving a bit slowly in the inefficiency zone.
#1 In this analysis, I want you to see that liquidity has decreased daily since last week, leading me to believe that Bitcoin could gain strength at any moment and break through my white trendline. This would be the first move I’m looking for to confirm that Bitcoin is ready for an uptrend. (Buying pressure)
#2 Once the price breaks through my white trendline, I expect the price to reach this green order block and reject at the confirmation zone. this rejection is a key point, However, it is precisely at this point that after the rejection, Bitcoin could gain momentum to break through the green order block and thus confirm its bullish trend.
Let's see what happens this week. In the meantime, buckle up because it’s going to be a very volatile week due to the scheduled economic news.
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
Keep Calm And Trade BitcoinIt would be relevant and popular to type a scenario called "if" with forecasts to buy, sell and hold in one article. However, I tend to be as objective and useful as possible, because I believe that if we hold and speculate on our popularity, this can continue until the last market maker is left without his commission and lead to a dead line of existentialism. Especially since, while some if buy, others if sell and else if hedge. In general, I do not see the point in two or even three way forecasts for all occasions, so that you can always tell your subscribers: "Look in my feed history! — I told you..." (all the ways). I am convinced that in order to learn, you need to practice confident steps, then you will get irreplaceable experience and the opportunity, if necessary, to earn money without begging. Risk is a noble cause. It is important not to miss the moment here. Either way, you will have to make a choice, otherwise doubt will eat you up. So grab your space spoons and forks and have a hearty meal, the training simulator won't be returning to the ground until lunchtime.
I often observe fatal conclusions (probably from newbies) that if "bitcoin falls" so then it's forever, "it's all over". But what they won't understand is that always goods are bought and sold on the market? Otherwise the market doesn't exist. You simply can't afford to buy-buy-buy all the time, sometimes you have to sell. Otherwise, what's the point of all this? And Bitcoin is not Ethereum! Bitcoin is original blockchain core with limited emission! And look at all chart at least sometimes. Take a break. There are other areas for investment in life. You can buy a new laptop or surfboard, for example. You have to fix your profit from time to time.
Due to outside interference for the last four years, the price looks tired. Sooner or later, an exotic vacation of Bitcoin to at least 28k for a breather is inevitable, and then it returns to its mathematically lawful exponential level of ~100k by the end of next year. If your friends just bought Bitcoin, it does not mean that it will be worth a million next week, and they can sell it on the market and buy it again. Maybe they lack education in this area, help them. Think before you judge. Just free your mind to think differently from time to time.
As much as we would like it, the rocket is not fly into space this year. And the events do not matter for the mathematical regularity of the original blockchain. Yes, there is a tendency for shortages (deficit), but what will you do with Bitcoin if not sell at the real price now and buy it profitably later? Do not stand still, use the market to dream. There is a lot of liquidity in the support zone. The exponential trend is constant, but we will not fly into space at all, because there is nothing to do and under gravity we just build and fill up the supporting silicon mountains for our observatory to look at the stars. The original blockchain is the most stable algorithm for maintaining independence in a secure decentralized unity environment. And it is only a matter of time what the result of the infinity fraction with a limited denominator will be.
We are on the peak of the wave, the next part of Blockchain journey ahead. Now put the record on.
Bitcoin, take a trade with me!Bitcoin, take a trade with me!
In a previus analysis, i shared that the best area for taking long is $57k area
Price follows our plan. Everthing looks like price will go up and take $62k or even $64400 key zone
I`ll take a trade in a case of SL hunt or Big oi rise
watch full plan to follow me
What to expect from BTC in the next six months? Global forecastHalf of 2024 is over. During this time, Bitcoin has managed to update its 💥 historical highs. What can we expect from bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in the future?
For six months, there was only one month when the price was actively growing. It was February 2024:
In one month, the BTC price rose by 💎43% and began consolidating on the monthly timeframe.
In March, the BTC price updated its historical high. This month saw the highest volume trading in 2024.
The situation with BTC is most dangerous on the monthly timeframe . For 4 months, bitcoin has been consolidating under the historical high. If we didn't know that it was bitcoin, we would have expected the price to fall by the end of 2024 with a minimum target of $41,000.
However, a similar situation with bitcoin occurred exactly a year ago. The BTC price stopped in consolidation starting in March 2023. During the summer, bitcoin did not move anywhere globally, and since September, we have seen a powerful wave of growth:
Given the fact that bitcoin has never stopped its growth after updating its historical highs, the likelihood of such a scenario is also high:
Great! So how do we make trading decisions? To do this, let's look at smaller timeframes. For example, a weekly one.
After a strong upward momentum in the BTC price since September 2023, sellers have reacted rather weakly to the update of the historical high:
In our opinion, everything will become clear after the BTC price updates the $56,000 mark. If the decline slows down and the price rebounds actively, we do not expect a deep correction of BTC and will wait for the extension of the BTC term and the update of historical highs by the end of 2024.
However, if there is no support in the $55,000 range , this is a signal that 2024 will end with a boring correction with the main target of $42,000.
And until the BTC price tests the $55,000 range, we would not make global decisions.
However, what will happen to altcoins if, for example, bitcoin goes to $42,000?
Here, I would like to show you a chart of BTC's dominance on the monthly timeframe so that you can understand how much things can change:
Since October 2023, it has become extremely difficult to update local highs on the BTC dominance chart. And this is not even helped by Bitcoin ETFs. During July-August 2024, bitcoin's influence may drop sharply to 47%. Therefore, even in a negative scenario, when bitcoin falls to the $42,000 range, other cryptocurrencies should not fall as much as they did in June.
And now let's look at what chance the cryptocurrency market has of falling back into a protracted crypto winter!
Here is a chart of USDT's dominance on the monthly timeframe:
In January 2024, the USDT dominance indicator broke through the 2019 USDT dominance uptrend! The worst-case scenario we see now is a retest of the consolidation in which USDT dominance moved from June 2022 to October 2023. However, such a scenario is possible if the current 5.1% range does not keep the pressure off USDT dominance:
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the growth structure of USDT dominance does not look strong.
What conclusions can be drawn from this information?
👉By the end of the summer, bitcoin has a good chance of losing its influence on the cryptocurrency market. And it can happen abruptly.
👉In July, it will become clear whether the cryptocurrency market will grow by the end of 2024 or whether 2024 will end on a bearish note.
👉Right now, there is a critical point in the cryptocurrency market from which the market can start a new medium-term growth wave. And it is during this growth that altcoins will feel good.
What do you think about the cryptocurrency market by the end of 2024? Write your thoughts in the comments!
Bitcoin Testing and Testing Demand ZoneBitcoin is once again seeking to fall into our equilibrium zone (purple zone). Bitcoin has tested this zone several times, and if we look at the overall structure, Bitcoin continues to bounce within a range.
Our plan remains in place. Remember that markets need to make pauses or retests before taking action. Additionally, we must consider that markets, in general, have been bearish—we are in a bear market. However, the points of interest I have marked are based on historical prices and significant liquidity, so we can expect aggressive movements once the price reaches the indicated zones.
Thank you for your support, and don't fear these bear markets; on the contrary, we should average in and take advantage of the opportunities they offer us.
Will Bitcoin ever break above it's old trend line again ? The point of this chart is not to look at future peaks, although we will touch upon it. The point is to take a dive into the indicator called the BTC log regression {Rainbow Dark} that is based on the Fibonacci sequence and the possible transition to the lower band from the top band.
Bitcoins entire history has been on the upper band of this log and in the recent crash of this year it has broken below. It did break this upper band support once before it the covid crash of 2020 marked with the orange circle. Price action broke through but as we can see it quickly recovered and held as support into the eventual bull run. This sequence of events seems to have left us a couple of clues, being the first time there was a substantial breach of the bottom and the bull run not hitting the top. I think yes, it could telling us that Bitcoin is now transitioning {reset} to the lower part of the band and it's most likely could be the new trending range. To confirm this theory we need two touches, one on top and one on the bottom.
In my opinion the only questions that remains is which line will be touched first and what will be the path. I do believe the top of this lower band could be the top of Bitcoins next bull run and the bottom of could be the bear market, of course only time will tell. I do not believe we ever go to top of the band ever again and could possible be the new resistance point for future bull market tops.
Just purely on looking at this lower band and assuming that we have a new bull market that tops in March of 2025, price point is showing a possible of just over 200k top.
My speculation is bitcoin moves towards the top first and then touch the lower part of the band later next year at relatively the same price point as now which would mark a double bottom that ultimately sparks the new bull run. There is only one thing for sure, Bitcoin will surprise everyone.
Keys to look at is the stochastic RSI. this will show which way momentum is going.
This is not financial advice and should not be taken as such. it's an observation.
Thanks for looking and leave comments below.
From Monthly to Daily: Bitcoin’s Bullish Surge Above $100KI'm not a "to the Mooner", and when I thought Bitcoin was going down, I said so, even though I knew I'd get some negative comments.
I'm not a perma-bear either...
In fact, at the beginning of this month, I mentioned that the break under 60k is most probably a false break.
I try to stay as objective as possible, trading based on what I see rather than my biases, and right now everything I'm seeing looks extremely bullish
I'll break down my analysis from monthly to daily because I believe all signs point to Bitcoin reaching 100k or more by the end of the year.
Monthly Chart Analysis:
Starting with the monthly chart, although I'm not an Elliott Wave (EW) expert, it's quite clear that from the 15,500 bottom, we have an impulsive EW structure.
The first wave reached 31.5K, followed by a correction in the second wave down to 25K. Wave three then surged to 74K, and now we're experiencing the complex correction that typically characterizes wave four.
Going further with basic Elliott Wave (EW) theory, Wave 1 shows an approximate 100% increase from 15,500 to 31,500.
Wave 3 then surged from 25,000 to 74,000, an approximate 200% increase.
After a correction in Wave 4 down to 54,000, we can now project Wave 5 using these percentage movements.
Using the percentage increase of Wave 1 (100%) and applying it to the bottom of Wave 4 (54,000):
- A 1.0x extension of Wave 1’s percentage increase suggests Wave 5 could rise by approximately 54k (54,000 * 1.0), reaching a target above 100k.
- A more bullish scenario, using a 1.618 extension of Wave 1’s percentage increase, suggests Wave 5 could rise by approximately 90,000 (54,000 * 1.6), reaching a target of 144,000.
Therefore, considering these percentage movements and the high volatility of Bitcoin, the potential target for Wave 5 could be between 100k and 150k, depending on market conditions and the exact nature of Wave 5.
Weekly Chart Analysis:
Refining to the weekly chart, we observe a notable upward movement from 25 to 74, followed by a correction that forms a bullish flag pattern.
The bottom of this flag pattern aligns around the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, which is typical for flag formations.
Additionally, from a price action perspective, the last three weeks exhibit strong bullish tendencies, with the current week presenting a bullish continuation Pin Bar.
Applying the measured target for the flag pattern projects a value above 100k.
If we were to apply a percentage-based target similar to the wave analysis, it would suggest 150k, but it's prudent to hold off on that projection for now (though this would approximately equate to a 1.6 extension from the monthly wave analysis).
Daily Chart Analysis:
Zooming in further to the daily chart, we clearly see a false break followed by a reversal back above 60k.
The recent correction dropped to a horizontal support level, concluding with a Pin Bar. Adding to this, yesterday's bullish candle completes a strongly bullish Morning Star pattern, indicating a likely imminent break of the resistance level.
Overall Perspective and Conclusion:
Looking at Bitcoin's behavior from monthly down to daily charts, the outlook remains very positive.
The long-term wave analysis suggests significant growth potential. On the weekly chart, the bullish flag pattern points to further gains, and the daily chart's reversal patterns reinforce this bullish sentiment.
In summary, Bitcoin is showing strong signs of upward movement across all time frames. While conservative targets point to around 100k, the possibility of reaching 150k isn't off the table if the bullish trends continue.
As always, it's wise to watch for key resistance breaks to confirm these bullish projections.
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
BITCOIN. HIDDEN FACTS ON. (BTCUSD)We don't see a drop in Bitcoin .
There is no money or investment that falls forever.
Unless Of course the system crashes.
I do not give investment advice.
As soon as it breaks 28800, they will try to blow up all the crypto.
Stop-Sell = 27999 Don't worry, sell it.
Supported.
33000 (buy %5)
31900 (buy %5)
31000 (Buy %10)
30200 - (Buy %15)
29400 (Buy %15)
28800 - Last Level
27999 - Short. ( %50)
2*300 - Short Closed ?
There is no such thing as coincidence.
Tschüss!
BTC → Bitcoin to $40,000? Or to $80,000? Let's Answer.Hello everyone, I am back! I spent the last couple of months finishing the trading course, which is now live. With that project complete, I am back to the analysis!
My Bitcoin Weekly analysis has not dramatically changed since March 25th. Bitcoin is now staring at the $65,000 to $74,000 resistance zone. A double top has formed after three pushes up, and we have closed below the Weekly 30EMA.
How do we trade this? 🤔
We ought to be looking for a long entry since Bitcoin is bullish on this timeframe. We now have three completed pushes toward the upside ending with a double-top in the resistance zone, we need to at least wait for a two-legged pullback toward the Support Zone between $40,000 and $45,000. Once successful signal and confirmation candles close above the Weekly 200EMA, it's reasonable to enter a long position at a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio. Stop loss should be set below the Weekly 200EMA at $32,350, the first take profit at 1:1 Risk/Reward at $51,600 where the stop loss is moved to your entry price, then the final take profit at $61,300 before the Resistance Zone at $65,000.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: $42,000
🟥 Stop Loss: $32,350
✅ Take Profit #1: $51,600
✅ Take Profit #2: $61,300
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up into the Resistance Zone at $65,000 - $74,000
2. Double-top reversal pattern completed inside Resistance Zone
3. Weekly close below the 30EMA, more confirmation of a pullback
4. Wait for a two-legged pullback toward the 200EMA in the Support Zone between $40,000 and $45,000
5. RSI is near 49.00 and below the Moving Average. Wait for contact and a final drop toward 40.00 in concurrence with the price action to enter.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
It's reasonable to take half profits at the first resistance target in a long trade, or the first support target in a short trade. Using a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio for your first target, you can move your stop loss up to your entry price, locking in profits. This allows you to watch the rest of the trade execute without worry of losing money. This helps improve trading psychology and the equity in your account.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about:
1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
Magnetic Fields (Part 2)At the architecture faculty, I was taught that if it looks ugly in a project, then it won’t work. So this is another clear example of how events can unfold in the future. Given the exponential trend, we can assume that without the current stop Bitcoin price would have already reached $150k. But since this hasn't happened yet, the start of the swift rise period is clearly moving to the second half of 2025. Looking at this optimistic scenario, we can see that the resistance and support exponents each have their own magnetism and the price always made sharp falls after reaching the highs and a smooth rise untill excitement begins. So this time, it is quite likely, and ideally necessary, for the price to fall below the (orange) median expected in this case. I understand that the trends of the desired and the actual may differ and therefore I try to be objective. However, one way or another, the clarity of the picture speaks for itself.
A related idea (part 1) has a less optimistic outlook.