Bitcoin has been on an uptrend for 11 years, showcasing 5 separate Elliot Waves going along with it's parabolic and volatile movement. As of 2/13/22 we are in wave 5 for BTC, and the only ways for BTC now is the moon, or hell. For the past year, BTC has been in an upward channel ranging between multiple fibs and about 2x price movement. We've moved sideways. DCA traders and scalpers / swingers have made super profits, and to those people, congrats. But as for our long term portfolios, we are in the same spot... We have touched the 60ks twice and couldn't seem to finish our Wave 5 of BTC and dump... or have we?!
If we look at BTC's price over the past few years, especially from late 2019 - late 2020, that climb in BTC price could act as a Wave 5 climb for BTC and 69k was truly the top of wave five, which means hell for crypto. Or, if we look at this years price movement with higher highs and lower lows being an upward channel (as long as 33-32k holds) as being a continuation pattern to BTC's true top, which is around 150k, or at the top of BTC's channel since it's creation, 400k. 400k is too high for me, and that is because of the increase in volume of traders trading BTC (ratio of volatility and volume moving in and out going down compared to people already in it over time). Check out these conditions and let me know how you guys feel in the comments.
Right now we are in a dangerous spot for BTC... But remember... Since the long-term trend for BTC is bullish, we are Bull until we are Bear in this market - (making this a post favored toward Bulls).
Many things could happen but these are the most likely scenarios:
A downtrend / bear market to 25-14k (roll over {-decrease of volume-} of BTC reaching 60k twice into a bear market and capitulation event)
or
An uptrend / bull market to 72k - 150k (reversal breakout / pattern forming from BTC's descending triangle with increasing buy volume)
These are my conditions for my long-term portfolio, take them as you like and let me know what I should change.
Bull Conditions:
-Break 45k again
-Break 48k
-Form Inverse Heads and Shoulders on 4hr
-Bounce off of Golden Pocket / 0.5 fib on 4hr
-Shorting pressure lifted
-Bounce up off EMA's 20 / 55 (or 50)
Bear Conditions
-Prolonged consolidation around 40k +- 1.25k
-Break (Candle Close) of 37500 and 39500
-Increase in shorter volume compared to longers
-Break of 33k and 28k
-Break down through descending triangle resistance (turned to support)
NOTE: a bounce off of 28k could happen and spell a double bottom, but by that point there would be too much sell pressure in my opinion. Every trade is best decided at that time, so if the market decides it wants to rally off of 28k, I wouldn't be surprised (more volume up with higher wing highs than down with equal swing lows...)
trade safe, trade smart
-Goku
If we look at BTC's price over the past few years, especially from late 2019 - late 2020, that climb in BTC price could act as a Wave 5 climb for BTC and 69k was truly the top of wave five, which means hell for crypto. Or, if we look at this years price movement with higher highs and lower lows being an upward channel (as long as 33-32k holds) as being a continuation pattern to BTC's true top, which is around 150k, or at the top of BTC's channel since it's creation, 400k. 400k is too high for me, and that is because of the increase in volume of traders trading BTC (ratio of volatility and volume moving in and out going down compared to people already in it over time). Check out these conditions and let me know how you guys feel in the comments.
Right now we are in a dangerous spot for BTC... But remember... Since the long-term trend for BTC is bullish, we are Bull until we are Bear in this market - (making this a post favored toward Bulls).
Many things could happen but these are the most likely scenarios:
A downtrend / bear market to 25-14k (roll over {-decrease of volume-} of BTC reaching 60k twice into a bear market and capitulation event)
or
An uptrend / bull market to 72k - 150k (reversal breakout / pattern forming from BTC's descending triangle with increasing buy volume)
These are my conditions for my long-term portfolio, take them as you like and let me know what I should change.
Bull Conditions:
-Break 45k again
-Break 48k
-Form Inverse Heads and Shoulders on 4hr
-Bounce off of Golden Pocket / 0.5 fib on 4hr
-Shorting pressure lifted
-Bounce up off EMA's 20 / 55 (or 50)
Bear Conditions
-Prolonged consolidation around 40k +- 1.25k
-Break (Candle Close) of 37500 and 39500
-Increase in shorter volume compared to longers
-Break of 33k and 28k
-Break down through descending triangle resistance (turned to support)
NOTE: a bounce off of 28k could happen and spell a double bottom, but by that point there would be too much sell pressure in my opinion. Every trade is best decided at that time, so if the market decides it wants to rally off of 28k, I wouldn't be surprised (more volume up with higher wing highs than down with equal swing lows...)
trade safe, trade smart
-Goku