Bitcoin: Buy Zone No Signal.

Price structure on the short term is bearish while the broader price structure continues to be bullish. Sound confusing? Traders who fixate on smaller time frames are often blind to the probabilities and potential that is present on larger time frames. This is what usually leads to many to getting caught on the wrong side, and in this case, the wrong side is short. Knowing how to WEIGHT price structures across time frames is where context comes from. And context is a key component when it comes to the decision making process.

As far as Bitcoin analysis now: Price continues to flirt with a key support zone. 29,500 to 28,300. This has been the case for weeks. Since the failed breakout earlier in the month (large bearish candle off 31K), shorter time frames and structure have been bearish (lower highs, lower lows). And if this short term momentum continues, a test of the support zone low (28,300 AREA), is likely over the next week or two.

This is where CONTEXT is important. Unless you are operating very small time frame strategies, this location is an IDEAL area for swing trade longs. The problem is there have been no confirmations, no catalysts and not enough momentum for the short squeeze to occur yet. While the typical low volume summer time price action continues, you must not lose site of the probability and potential of this location. Avoid SWING trade shorts.

IF and when Bitcoin decides to reject the current support, the potential can be measured to the 31K resistance. Keep in mind IF this scenario plays out (can take a month at this rate), all of your favorite frauds will be publishing titles that say "Bitcoin Moon". Just like all the XRP titles that have recently polluted Youtube after the SEC ruling recently. If you are moved by such nonsense, then you have a long way to go in terms of becoming proficient at this game. A solid decision making process is what prevents you from being at the mercy of your emotions (fear of missing out) which is what your favorite fraud's revenue depends on.

While Bitcoin is generally bullish, there is NO way to gauge if it will go to 40K, 50K, etc. over the next 3 to 6 months. all markets are HIGHLY RANDOM. The best way to gauge potential is to consider the economic environment (INTEREST RATES). Rates are still RISING not just for the U.S. but clearly the ECB and other countries are raising as well. Assets like Bitcoin (garbage alts too) NEED CHEAP MONEY for a sustainable rally. So as long as rates continue to rise, XRP or Bitcoin, or whatever is being hyped to the moon has a low probability of getting there any time soon.

Summer time is generally slow as I explained in my previous article. Use this time to learn about aspects of the market that you may be unfamiliar with like the business cycle, interest rates and inter market relationships. This is where perspective comes from. With perspective and the ability to interpret context coupled with a solid set of rules or decision making process, you will be MUCH better informed than your peers who over REACT to everything they see and hear (XRP MOON!). The herd is where profit potential comes from. Do NOT be part of the herd, capitalize on it.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.