Fractal pump stairs, walking up an unbroken rally floor
We've been on a constant up/sideways/up/sideways/up formation, that has just broken a major ceiling trendline drawn from July 2019. Lots of folks expecting this to stop at 10K, but I think we're just getting started, and the next major resistance is the ATH ceiling trendline from Dec 2017 (around 11.2K). Also happens to be the 1.618 extension of the rally to 9480, funny how that works 😉
We're seeing enough FOMO and buying pressure that all the attempted dumps cannot keep price sideways anymore. Every dip gets bought back up in minutes. That relentless pressure popped us out of this formation before we could kiss the rising bull floor.
We should have a solid vertical pump here to the next ceiling, and then a whoooole lot of whiplash as bears demand to short the "top" but buying pressure continues to absorb everything sold, resulting in higher lows every time.
Post-Halving, there will be the assumption that all of this nonstop rally euphoria since the Covid crash was purely manufactured by miners, to capitlize on "halving mania", so I can see the sideways ranging actually running into the black rising bull floor and finally going through it. If that happens, and we *don't* just blow out the top again, we will have a retrace at *most* to 9300, retesting the topside support of the previous ceiling resistance.
But that's it. No more sub-9K coins. Discount buyers will be disappointed.
Started long position back at 6800, with occasional shorts in the sideways chop. My Wyckoff model on this last sideways was invalidated (before we even touched the black floor), so I flipped my opportunistic short at 8940 and went long again 9037. Not shorting **anything** until that black rally floor breaks down as confirmation. Bears hoping to preempt a major retrace will get burned. WAIT for confirmation even if you're convinced we're going to have a correction.
We're seeing enough FOMO and buying pressure that all the attempted dumps cannot keep price sideways anymore. Every dip gets bought back up in minutes. That relentless pressure popped us out of this formation before we could kiss the rising bull floor.
We should have a solid vertical pump here to the next ceiling, and then a whoooole lot of whiplash as bears demand to short the "top" but buying pressure continues to absorb everything sold, resulting in higher lows every time.
Post-Halving, there will be the assumption that all of this nonstop rally euphoria since the Covid crash was purely manufactured by miners, to capitlize on "halving mania", so I can see the sideways ranging actually running into the black rising bull floor and finally going through it. If that happens, and we *don't* just blow out the top again, we will have a retrace at *most* to 9300, retesting the topside support of the previous ceiling resistance.
But that's it. No more sub-9K coins. Discount buyers will be disappointed.
Started long position back at 6800, with occasional shorts in the sideways chop. My Wyckoff model on this last sideways was invalidated (before we even touched the black floor), so I flipped my opportunistic short at 8940 and went long again 9037. Not shorting **anything** until that black rally floor breaks down as confirmation. Bears hoping to preempt a major retrace will get burned. WAIT for confirmation even if you're convinced we're going to have a correction.
Comment:
30m view, showing how we've not only broken the last pump high, the downtrend ceiling, but also popped out of the top of the current rising channel. Bullish sentiment cannot be contained here, everyone jumping in front of each other to catch the moon train...
Trade active:
Pump pausing at 10K, upper trendline of the rebound rally peaks since the Covid crash. buying pressure will prevent any deep dips, sideways = steep up, hugging the tops, with likely the next leg up before Halving
Trade active:
the major psychological "10K" has been breached. Took profits, will reopen on any pullback, as I don't expect any sideways to slump downwards, only higher. Also will happily reopen if bulls decide to pop the trendline top right here.
Trade active:
CME futures closing in one hour, with us right up against the rally ceiling. Spot has been reliably returning to futures close price by the time of opening Sunday evening, so whatever happens over the weekend I expect it to stay within the rally bounds. Closing at 10100 would set us up for a nice breakout launch position at opening. Looking for a possible bullish "batman" fractal (pointy ears, right higher than left) to provide the positioning.
Trade active:
Futures closed, and spot stopped climbing the line and began selling finally. With the weekend range well-defined, I happily opened a short position at 10K, expecting to re-enter longs over this weekend in the 9500-9600 range.
Futures closing at exactly 10K provides us a *tried and true* forecast of where the price will end up at 5pm CST Sunday - 10K again 😉
Futures closing at exactly 10K provides us a *tried and true* forecast of where the price will end up at 5pm CST Sunday - 10K again 😉
Trade active:
took profit on short as we continued selling into 9650 range. Have long entries spread all across 9500-9650, will see how many get filled.
Trade active:
Filled all my longs average 9608, too much buying going on to be sure we get full retraces anymore. removed pink scribble (hugging the top scenario) as the zigzag is clearly working perfect. We should drift back up slowly to 10K futures over next 36 hours. Another reach for 9500 isn't impossible but I"m not going to wait for it
Trade closed: stop reached:
the rising bullish rally floor we've been riding all this way up? Yeah, it got smashed this time. Clearly whales saw an opportunity to crush all the longs that got opened as we reached 10K, and unloaded all at once. A retrace of the entire rally since 6800, to the 0.618 fib, in one big dump. My stops got hit, not going to chase this down with a short, need to see how consolidation forms before taking up new positions.
