BTC needs to hold 3hrly 200 SMA, bullish if breaks above 21 EMA.

3 hourly chart: Thin orange 200 VWMA crossing above thick orange 200 SMA showing bullish volume coming in. BTC needs to go over red 21 EMA again for me to be short-term bullish again. A further brutal drop becomes possible if the thick orange 200 SMA fails to hold. Long-term, I'm still presently bullish.

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Bear flag for a 30+% (or more!) drop to inflict maximum pain to newcomers looking to make a quick buck and consolidate (which historically makes sense in BTC bull market), or simply a retest of the daily 21 EMA?

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Daily Chart showing the retest of the red daily 21EMA

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Continued Analysis from:

Comment:

Fib levels. Looks like a simple "gentle" (in terms of BTC's present volatility) healthy retracement to me so far.

Comment:

Not out of the woods just yet. BTC appears to be rejected by the red 21 EMA atm.
Lower low set. Lower high set if rejected by red 21 EMA.

BTC presently needs to go above green 50 SMA and find support above it for market to turn short-term bullish again. More likely and healthy to consolidate sideways for awhile first IMO.

Need to also consider the bear flag formation, if fulfilled, would bring BTC down to about 40k USD.