Hi all! Happy May 1st!
First of all, I want to thank all of my followers. Your love and support are the drivers and the motivation behind what I do. As much as I love making money, I love giving back, and there is nothing more rewarding than sharing a bit of what I think and know with you here today.
In short, bears are still in control, and bulls are waking up. Last week we saw indecision, low participation, and a continuation of a bearish slide further down as bulls tried to beat the bears and failed.
We are seeing a similar price action to that of the end of February. However, much lower volume indicates indecision and lower market participation, and lower price targets. No matter how fundamentally strong BTC is, it's subject to overall market forces, especially what the FED will say this week.
We cannot ignore the high correlation of BTC to NASDAQ (blue line). Last week NASDAQ took a beating, and along with that, we saw Cryptos sliding further down. NASDAQ was retesting support last week. It’s possible to see a spike down, as we have seen before. This will be bearish for Cryptos.
At this point, for BTC’s long-term direction, we only need to ask ourselves, where is BTC likely to go? Fall 20% to 30k or go up 20%+ and get back closer to 50k?
There are some facts that we must not ignore. FACT 1: We are seeing a much lower stopping volume than we saw in February. Generally, to stop the momentum, we have to see a high price force applied to stop that direction and reverse it. We haven’t seen it yet. FACT 2: We are inside a strong support zone and consolidating inside 2 triangles.
The question is, which triangle is the bottom? Let’s zoom out into daily view.
The triangle leg that I’ve drawn in Red comes from a trend line that was established more recently, and it has a touch when BTC set its last bottom on Jan 24th. So it’s highly likely this is where the price will go. It’s possible we will see high market participation after the FED speaks, and we will see a week that produces a significant price spike. High likelihood we will see the stopping volume.
The price could drop to $35k before it goes anywhere else. This means, along with BTC, altcoins will make further downward waves of high magnitude.
Now to my opinion piece because it’s anyone's guess what the FED will say next week. We know the current price has already priced in what the FED did and said when they spoke in March. When the FED does what the market expects them to do, we generally see prices going up, and that’s what we saw in mid-March. Most likely, we can expect the FED to do what’s expected of them. I think the surprise will come from what they will say. IMHO, I think the inflation is here to stay, FED is only interesting in keeping the markets up as the middle-class spend all they have and the wealth transfer is completed. At which point the market will have a massive correction. I expect this surprise to be bullish for the market next week. Overall I remain bullish and expect BTC to make a reversal, but I see the possibility of a high volume down spike.
What do you think? Where will it go from here? Cast your vote; it's easy:
(A) +20%
(B) -20%
(a) +6%
(b) -6%
Follow me for technically strong analysis, unlike anything you have seen before. My understanding came from over a decade of accelerated learning performed by statistically and programmatically analyzing multiple trading systems and assets and building thousands of indicators and hundreds of trading systems to uncover hidden market forces. I will share some of these learnings as I find more and more time. Here is a screenshot of the system that gives me the targets based on market gaps formed by momentum ibb.co/g7bnhtG (BTC highlighted)
If you are an experienced trader who considers yourself successful, direct message me if you are interested in participating in an intimate group chat where we can expand our knowledge and abilities together and have some fun.
First of all, I want to thank all of my followers. Your love and support are the drivers and the motivation behind what I do. As much as I love making money, I love giving back, and there is nothing more rewarding than sharing a bit of what I think and know with you here today.
In short, bears are still in control, and bulls are waking up. Last week we saw indecision, low participation, and a continuation of a bearish slide further down as bulls tried to beat the bears and failed.
We are seeing a similar price action to that of the end of February. However, much lower volume indicates indecision and lower market participation, and lower price targets. No matter how fundamentally strong BTC is, it's subject to overall market forces, especially what the FED will say this week.
We cannot ignore the high correlation of BTC to NASDAQ (blue line). Last week NASDAQ took a beating, and along with that, we saw Cryptos sliding further down. NASDAQ was retesting support last week. It’s possible to see a spike down, as we have seen before. This will be bearish for Cryptos.
At this point, for BTC’s long-term direction, we only need to ask ourselves, where is BTC likely to go? Fall 20% to 30k or go up 20%+ and get back closer to 50k?
There are some facts that we must not ignore. FACT 1: We are seeing a much lower stopping volume than we saw in February. Generally, to stop the momentum, we have to see a high price force applied to stop that direction and reverse it. We haven’t seen it yet. FACT 2: We are inside a strong support zone and consolidating inside 2 triangles.
The question is, which triangle is the bottom? Let’s zoom out into daily view.
The price could drop to $35k before it goes anywhere else. This means, along with BTC, altcoins will make further downward waves of high magnitude.
Now to my opinion piece because it’s anyone's guess what the FED will say next week. We know the current price has already priced in what the FED did and said when they spoke in March. When the FED does what the market expects them to do, we generally see prices going up, and that’s what we saw in mid-March. Most likely, we can expect the FED to do what’s expected of them. I think the surprise will come from what they will say. IMHO, I think the inflation is here to stay, FED is only interesting in keeping the markets up as the middle-class spend all they have and the wealth transfer is completed. At which point the market will have a massive correction. I expect this surprise to be bullish for the market next week. Overall I remain bullish and expect BTC to make a reversal, but I see the possibility of a high volume down spike.
What do you think? Where will it go from here? Cast your vote; it's easy:
(A) +20%
(B) -20%
(a) +6%
(b) -6%
Follow me for technically strong analysis, unlike anything you have seen before. My understanding came from over a decade of accelerated learning performed by statistically and programmatically analyzing multiple trading systems and assets and building thousands of indicators and hundreds of trading systems to uncover hidden market forces. I will share some of these learnings as I find more and more time. Here is a screenshot of the system that gives me the targets based on market gaps formed by momentum ibb.co/g7bnhtG (BTC highlighted)
If you are an experienced trader who considers yourself successful, direct message me if you are interested in participating in an intimate group chat where we can expand our knowledge and abilities together and have some fun.
Momentum is your friend. Think beyond the box, expand your reality and you will be ahead of the trend.
