Bitcoin: 40K In Play For Bounce.

Bitcoin failed attempt to break 40K means the broader support area is still in play. While the broader resistance is 45K, the minor resistance is 42.5 which appears to be affecting price now. IF a bearish pin bar appears at this location, it increases the chances of a bearish retrace back into the 40.5K area. THIS is the scenario I am looking for in order to justify risk for a new swing trade long.

Upon a retest of 40K, if there is no confirmation, then I stand aside to see if there is a retest of 38.5 again. IF 38.5 breaks, then I stand aside because the broader trend at that point goes into question. As of now, the broader trend can still be argued as bullish. It is important to keep in mind that markets do not necessarily go from bullish to bearish, they can consolidate. As the market provides new information, arguments and expectations can be adjusted.

Assessing a market effectively requires evaluating smaller time frame information in light of larger time frame information. I am not trying to forecast the future (this is a typical retail mistake). I am gathering clues from recent price action in an attempt to narrow the range of possibilities that the market can present over the next week or two. From there it is up to the market to confirm or not which justifies if I can take risk or not. This is the passive mindset, which facilitates an open mind in contrast to jumping to conclusions or thinking in absolutes.

I also wanted to mention, do not lose sight of the monthly time frame. A break of 38.5 will add more weight to the monthly C Wave scenario that I have been describing for weeks. Realize that IF the market chooses this route, price will NOT move in a straight line. It will takes months to unfold and there will be many conflicting situations (bullish reversals) along the way. This is why it is essential to constantly gauge the levels in play and what to expect relative to the trend structure.

IF price manages to retrace back to 45K, I would not expect much more than that. This level is ideal to take profits. From there the market will have to continue to prove strength.

Traders and investors have many obstacles to deal with which they aren't even aware of. One such obstacle is the value of the information. Understand that if you consume the same information as everyone else, you have NO advantage which means your outcomes will most likely be random. Information is NOT just news reports, etc. Price itself offers much more value in the absence of inside information because it paints a picture of reality. You just have to learn how to interpret it.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.