Looking at the previous (2014) and recent (2017) bubble movements of Bitcoin, we can see three apparent price channels that dominate the cycles:
1) Base
2) Breakthrough
3) Pop
Here the chart is logarithmic to linearize the growth rate (price channel), assuming the cycles are predominantly exponential.
In the previous cycle we can see the Base price channel was broken and first Breakthrough price resistance was around 200. Later on, the Breakthrough channel ends as the price reaches to 1000 as second Breakthrough channel resistance, and we enter the downwards Pop channel. Pop channel ends when the price reaches to the first Breakthrough price resistance of 200, and we enter the next bubble's Base price channel.
In the recent bubble, again Base price channel was broken and this time first Breakthrough price resistance was around 3500. Second Breakthrough resistance is around 5000. Lastly the Breakthrough channel ends as Bitcoin reaches 20000, and we are now in the Pop price channel.
With these I will speculate and predict the real bottom range for Bitcoin as 3500-5000 and we will hit there around January 2019 - that will be the beginning of the next Base price channel.
Furthermore, we can see that the recent Base price channel was broken (beginning of the Breakthrough channel) when the price reached to the previous all-time-high value of 200. By the same token, Bitcoin will enter Breakthrough channel when it reaches 20000 USD in July-August 2020.
Aside from market cycles, the fundamentals are much different today than of the year 2014. Rate of adoption and visibility is increasing. Therefore I believe the idea I presented here is the worst case scenario.
Thanks for reading - let me know what you think.
