The following is PURE Speculation and opinion:
The massive rise in crypto is due to unprecedented historical times which skew normal rules.
So I am leaning more toward psychology.
The Initial SCARE, and Lockdown caused above average digital users and attention.
The Injection of unprecedented Trillions into the economy caused mass distortion.
Couple this with simultaneous HYPE campaigns and we get our first ATH in April 15 2021.
The rapid crash trapped countless buyers.
The Second wave was due to the above as well, plus new FOMO who saw the reality of the first wave, plus the intent of those trapped to escape.
The Hype was strong but weaker in comparison to the first.
Once the top was reached, and the same happened again, great faith was lost.
So I believe the third wave will be no more powerful because, the money printing stopped and is actually being condemned. The buyers are becoming aware that most youtubers are actually paid hypers. The buyers see the possibility of a massive rapid crash. Thus the entire market is more aware and cautious; FOMO will be less.
However BTC is the future of money (clip long discussion) So it WILL continue to rise, but on a more conservative basis. This is why I show two "Ranges". One is the effects of HYPE, the other is the more cautious and conservative buyers, which will eventually dominate.
I see BTC as very stable but simply in a massive range. Notice the blue 55K line. That is the peak of the 100MA the last two waves. It is a Psychological fair value at this point.
IMO it will take tremendous Hype to reach 100k by NEXT Year, However 72K is possible by This July.
I included bearish price angles which I found to be rather symmetrical for your musing.
Clustering at 110, and 52 day increments.
{BUT... as crazy as the world is right now... ANYTHING can happen at this point. Drop to Zero or Rise to 100k in 30 seconds would no longer shock me. :) }
The massive rise in crypto is due to unprecedented historical times which skew normal rules.
So I am leaning more toward psychology.
The Initial SCARE, and Lockdown caused above average digital users and attention.
The Injection of unprecedented Trillions into the economy caused mass distortion.
Couple this with simultaneous HYPE campaigns and we get our first ATH in April 15 2021.
The rapid crash trapped countless buyers.
The Second wave was due to the above as well, plus new FOMO who saw the reality of the first wave, plus the intent of those trapped to escape.
The Hype was strong but weaker in comparison to the first.
Once the top was reached, and the same happened again, great faith was lost.
So I believe the third wave will be no more powerful because, the money printing stopped and is actually being condemned. The buyers are becoming aware that most youtubers are actually paid hypers. The buyers see the possibility of a massive rapid crash. Thus the entire market is more aware and cautious; FOMO will be less.
However BTC is the future of money (clip long discussion) So it WILL continue to rise, but on a more conservative basis. This is why I show two "Ranges". One is the effects of HYPE, the other is the more cautious and conservative buyers, which will eventually dominate.
I see BTC as very stable but simply in a massive range. Notice the blue 55K line. That is the peak of the 100MA the last two waves. It is a Psychological fair value at this point.
IMO it will take tremendous Hype to reach 100k by NEXT Year, However 72K is possible by This July.
I included bearish price angles which I found to be rather symmetrical for your musing.
Clustering at 110, and 52 day increments.
{BUT... as crazy as the world is right now... ANYTHING can happen at this point. Drop to Zero or Rise to 100k in 30 seconds would no longer shock me. :) }