Hello, dear friends!
Bitcoin has approached to the critical price level where most of traders are struggling to define if now still the bear market or the bull market has been already strated. In today's article we will try to bring together many facts and make the conclusion about what is coming next. Let's go!
BEAR MARKET STRUCTURE
I have see many opinions that bear market has been started on November 2021, but I suppose it has started much earlier - in April 2021. My first evidence of this assumption is that maximum euphoria was in April, where we saw the largest altseason ever. Remember, many altcoins made 10-100x in those period. After
BTCUSDT
faced with the corrective move in wave A. The wave B was very tricky, it broke through the previous ATH which made a lot of traders confused. But in November 2021 only BTC and fundamental altcoins set the new ATH, like ETH, ATOM and DOT. So-called "shitcoins" demonstrated very weak pump and retraced only to 0.61 Fibonacci. To sum up this part of analysis, I consider now Bitcoin is finishing the wave C before the new bull market.
WAVE C STRUCTURE
Our main purpose now is to anticipate where the wave C could be ended to invest in crypto. Wave C should consists of 5 waves. Awesome oscillator is our best tool to identify the waves. The minimum AO value corresponds to the wave 3 bottom. Yes, It was at $17500, not at $15500. In my opinion, wave 4 has the shape of complex correction - very tricky one for all traders. I suppose that wave 4 has been finished in two reasons: BTC reached the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci area and AO crossed the zero line.
WHAT IS THE BEAR MARKET TARGET PRICE?
I consider the wave 5 ahead. It's to fearfull that the potential target for this wave is located between $9k and $10k. There I plan to invest in Bitcoin and some fundamental altcoins. I suppose most of altcoins will disappear at such low price levels. Anyway we have the clear scenario invalidation level. If Bitcoin will break through the $32800 - wave 1 bottom level, my Elliott wave formation is gonna be failed.
In updates I am going to add this idea with local scenarios which supports this scenario.
Bitcoin has approached to the critical price level where most of traders are struggling to define if now still the bear market or the bull market has been already strated. In today's article we will try to bring together many facts and make the conclusion about what is coming next. Let's go!
BEAR MARKET STRUCTURE
I have see many opinions that bear market has been started on November 2021, but I suppose it has started much earlier - in April 2021. My first evidence of this assumption is that maximum euphoria was in April, where we saw the largest altseason ever. Remember, many altcoins made 10-100x in those period. After
BTCUSDT
faced with the corrective move in wave A. The wave B was very tricky, it broke through the previous ATH which made a lot of traders confused. But in November 2021 only BTC and fundamental altcoins set the new ATH, like ETH, ATOM and DOT. So-called "shitcoins" demonstrated very weak pump and retraced only to 0.61 Fibonacci. To sum up this part of analysis, I consider now Bitcoin is finishing the wave C before the new bull market. WAVE C STRUCTURE
Our main purpose now is to anticipate where the wave C could be ended to invest in crypto. Wave C should consists of 5 waves. Awesome oscillator is our best tool to identify the waves. The minimum AO value corresponds to the wave 3 bottom. Yes, It was at $17500, not at $15500. In my opinion, wave 4 has the shape of complex correction - very tricky one for all traders. I suppose that wave 4 has been finished in two reasons: BTC reached the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci area and AO crossed the zero line.
WHAT IS THE BEAR MARKET TARGET PRICE?
I consider the wave 5 ahead. It's to fearfull that the potential target for this wave is located between $9k and $10k. There I plan to invest in Bitcoin and some fundamental altcoins. I suppose most of altcoins will disappear at such low price levels. Anyway we have the clear scenario invalidation level. If Bitcoin will break through the $32800 - wave 1 bottom level, my Elliott wave formation is gonna be failed.
In updates I am going to add this idea with local scenarios which supports this scenario.
Comment:
THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO YOU DON'T WANNA SEE
If Bitcoin price will break through the $32800 critical level - the wave 1 bottom. It means that the main Elliott waves axiom has been violated. In this case I am going to consider the following fromation. I hope it will not happen because in this case we have to wait more than one year for the true bull market start.
If Bitcoin price will break through the $32800 critical level - the wave 1 bottom. It means that the main Elliott waves axiom has been violated. In this case I am going to consider the following fromation. I hope it will not happen because in this case we have to wait more than one year for the true bull market start.
Trade active:
I considered all bullish and bearish scenarios and even if Bitcoin will now reach $10k it have to reach $23400. I drew this potential move on the chart below. If this is a correction ABC $23400 is reachable price. I suppose that wave B has been already ended. That's why I decided to take this trade. It has nice risk to reward 1:4.
Comment:
WHAT CLASSICAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TELLS US?
I like when Elliott waves analysis coinsides with the classical TA tools. In our case we have the strong confirmation of the bearish scenario. Bitcoin is finishing printing the Head & Shoulders chart pattern. If the neckline are will be broken the impulsive dump is likely to be seen. And again we have the target next to $23500. Here is the Head's height located and the huge liqudity zone also.
I like when Elliott waves analysis coinsides with the classical TA tools. In our case we have the strong confirmation of the bearish scenario. Bitcoin is finishing printing the Head & Shoulders chart pattern. If the neckline are will be broken the impulsive dump is likely to be seen. And again we have the target next to $23500. Here is the Head's height located and the huge liqudity zone also.
Trade active:
I decided to update this trading idea. Bitcoin price is consolidating just above the support trendline. We have already see 2 such consolidations which led to the pump. I think this time the outcome will be different. It's time to break the support down. I think today or tomorrow it will happens.
Comment:
OKXIDEAS contest is about to be finished!
Dear followers, please, support me with your boosts to this idea! Just press the rocket so I can win in this contest. It will motivate me to make more ideas for you
Love you all, best regards!
Dear followers, please, support me with your boosts to this idea! Just press the rocket so I can win in this contest. It will motivate me to make more ideas for you
Love you all, best regards!
Comment:
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF NEW BULL TRAP
Here is a quick Bitcoin analysis update. I marked the local sub waves and it seems that $26k price level will not be broken with the first attempt. Price has already reached the wave 3 target at $26k, which is 1.61 Fibonacci extension. I expect the sideways during the weekend and small pump in wave 4 on monday. After that dump will be continued in my opinion.
We can also see the squat bar on 4h. It means that here is the huge buynig pressure and it could be another one evidence that local sub wave 3 has been finished.
Here is a quick Bitcoin analysis update. I marked the local sub waves and it seems that $26k price level will not be broken with the first attempt. Price has already reached the wave 3 target at $26k, which is 1.61 Fibonacci extension. I expect the sideways during the weekend and small pump in wave 4 on monday. After that dump will be continued in my opinion.
We can also see the squat bar on 4h. It means that here is the huge buynig pressure and it could be another one evidence that local sub wave 3 has been finished.
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I want you to bring your attention to my Elliott waves analysis inside wave 4. It is represented as ABC complex correction. Wave A and B were ugly. At the same time wave C looks like the impulsive wave consisted of 5 waves. The Awesome Oscillator is showing the confirmed divergence between waves 3 and 5. I think this large wave is finished.