U.S. dies by financial repression, then hyperinflation
Updated
A 5th wave can extend into 9 waves as per my conjecture.
I will follow-up in the updates posited plausible crash scenario for early 2024 which is difficult to see on this chart if not zoomed in.
DJIA charted from 1789 inception.
It’s plausible that Robert Prechter’s Elliot Wave (EW) count for the DJI (c.f. direct link to the chart) might be correct to the extent of per my observation (of a repeating fractal) that the 2020 flash crash was a repeat of the 1987 flash crash, thus the top of looming major degree wave V (aka 5) could be in ~2032. Prechter’s charted expectation for a top in 2023 (or even those that think 2025 will be a top) are likely incorrect. I will elaborate my reasoning in follow-ups, including explicating Martin Armstrong’s 37⅓ year and his other cycles.
Glenn Neely (creator of Neowave) presented his thesis in 1988 (c.f. video follow-up in 1995 and in 2022) for an extended major wave V (which he refers to as Super Cycle major degree wave 3) terminating between 2020 to 2060. Ostensibly Neowave’s main claimed “innovation” over orthodox EW is the ‘neutral triangle’ (c.f. also) which attempts to explain some motive 5-wave counts that increase in price as corrective in structure (i.e. potentially overlapping instead of strictly impulsive) such that the ending E wave is a down wave in price (c.f. 2022 video). My impression so far is his methods do not help to explain anything. However, I did appreciate from his 1988 paper the points that this extended 5th wave posited to be underway since 1929 is likely duplicating the structure of the 3rd wave (he refers to as SuperCycle wave II). His assertion (based on his conjecture that DJIA commenced 1765 not 1789) that his Cycle I is 61.8% of his SuperCycle reminds me that my posited 5th wave extension (~142 years, 1932 to 2074) is ~1.618 duration of my 3rd wave (87 years, ~1842 to 1929) and equal the entire duration from 1789 inception to 1929 or 1932 termination.
I will follow-up in the updates posited plausible crash scenario for early 2024 which is difficult to see on this chart if not zoomed in.
DJIA charted from 1789 inception.
It’s plausible that Robert Prechter’s Elliot Wave (EW) count for the DJI (c.f. direct link to the chart) might be correct to the extent of per my observation (of a repeating fractal) that the 2020 flash crash was a repeat of the 1987 flash crash, thus the top of looming major degree wave V (aka 5) could be in ~2032. Prechter’s charted expectation for a top in 2023 (or even those that think 2025 will be a top) are likely incorrect. I will elaborate my reasoning in follow-ups, including explicating Martin Armstrong’s 37⅓ year and his other cycles.
Glenn Neely (creator of Neowave) presented his thesis in 1988 (c.f. video follow-up in 1995 and in 2022) for an extended major wave V (which he refers to as Super Cycle major degree wave 3) terminating between 2020 to 2060. Ostensibly Neowave’s main claimed “innovation” over orthodox EW is the ‘neutral triangle’ (c.f. also) which attempts to explain some motive 5-wave counts that increase in price as corrective in structure (i.e. potentially overlapping instead of strictly impulsive) such that the ending E wave is a down wave in price (c.f. 2022 video). My impression so far is his methods do not help to explain anything. However, I did appreciate from his 1988 paper the points that this extended 5th wave posited to be underway since 1929 is likely duplicating the structure of the 3rd wave (he refers to as SuperCycle wave II). His assertion (based on his conjecture that DJIA commenced 1765 not 1789) that his Cycle I is 61.8% of his SuperCycle reminds me that my posited 5th wave extension (~142 years, 1932 to 2074) is ~1.618 duration of my 3rd wave (87 years, ~1842 to 1929) and equal the entire duration from 1789 inception to 1929 or 1932 termination.
Comment
The central theme of this chart interpretation employing Martin Armstrong’s 8.6 and 37⅓ year Financial crisis cycles, is that the U.S. started off Jeffersonian agrarian, decentralized, and liberated. Yet as the U.S. industrialized (via debt) and financialized, the Hamiltonian Federalist technocrats steered the Titanic towards a runaway money printing machine which should manifest as totalitarianism, financial repression of trapping the public on 666-like central bank digital currencies (which will enable UBI and money from helicopters flooding into the stock market, but Hotel California style where you can check in any time you like, but you can never check out) and then ultimately a hyperinflationary death spiral as Bitcoinization (Bitcoin becoming the global reserve currency in a multi-polar world where the U.S. is no longer a superpower) enslaves the world in a deflationary fiscal discipline. By 2020, the barbarians hoisted a C19 scam on the entire world to grab/sustain Deep State control, and a wrecking ball that is spiraling out-of-control. Towards the end everyone fled Rome because it was impossible to live there.Before elaborating on the main theme further below, here’s my thoughts on the current near-term.
Per recent updates on my prior published idea Bitcoin is ending; no new high coming in 2025, I’m expecting a top for the markets in January 2024 and correction, perhaps not final bottoming until May.
There’s some reasons to posit that it could be a flash crash, of unknown severity, but if the period after 1987 is the posited repeating fractal, there’s a possibility the severity could be lower than the 2022 low. This is guesswork, but note the 2020 pattern is more extended in duration than the 1987 and the proportional timing for the second flash drop in 1990 would roughly correspond to commence Q1 2024.
Remember n the updates of my published idea 2023 - Year From Hell, I had correctly predicted the summer 2023 price objective exactly for DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq by employing the Shark pattern harmonic reproduced below for the DJIA.
And here’s the imminent DJIA 1.13 projection. Note speculation on the posited H1 2024 correction or crash, ranges in severity as indicated by my cyan trend lines.
On Oct 9/10 (2022), I first speculated on said Shark pattern:
Nov 10 was my first allusion to the 0.886 target (estimated “4700” bcz I was in a rush and didn’t chart 0.886) when I posted the following chart update, but with only the 1.13 extension target plotted.
On Oct. 10, I correctly predicted NatGas’ crash:
On Dec. 26 (2022), I wrote about Bitcoin being near to a bottom, “Is this Shark pattern projecting up to 4650 to 4925 invalid?”
On Nov. 20 (2022), I wrote, “I might accumulate some ~16k. Waiting for a bullish RSI divergence. I think a bounce this week. Everyone is bearish.”
And the subsequent Bitcoin bottom on Nov. 23:
Followed up on Jan 10, 2023, confirming my flip to bullish, “I have Bitcoin rallying to at least 18.6k after a pullback. And as high as ~21k. ~10 - 20% gains.”
Followed up on Jan 15, 2023, “Yeah I like this idea a lot. Looks like a bottom in W-X-Y corrective pattern which will take BTC up to $35 - 57k for wave X, then back down to a lower-low inQ1 2024 for the next variant of the March 2020 corona crash.”
Btw, on Nov 1, 2022, I noticed an old LTC chart of mine, which had exactly predicted the 2021 high.
Comment
Financial repression becomes necessary because the other alternative of allowing the entire financial system to collapse in a massive deflationary bust would be suicide (especially for those, e.g. Neocons, who hold the reigns of the superpower). To fund everything to keep it all levitated, without driving interest rates to pluto and radically exacerbating inflation, yield curve control should also be coupled with capital controls so that market forces can disrupt the house-of-cards. But capital controls implies the dollar can’t be the reserve currency of the world (this shift has already begun by freezing funds of Russians, politicizing the Swift money transfer system). Can’t have people converting their dollars to other hard assets (e.g. Bitcoin or that dying non-sendable, relic gold) that can be taken outside of the closed system. Thus the plan (probably implemented with some precipitating crisis, perhaps in banking facilitated as bank runs perhaps with the recently implemented FedNow) to be able to control every single transaction by forcing everyone to use a centrally controlled digital (CBDC) variant of the dollar.Armstrong wrote, “The lesson of 1987 is NOT in the chart. It is behind the chart. Once the public realized that the central banks were not actually in control, that is when the panic took place. Today, when interest rates rise without the Fed’s actions because the Neocons are constantly threatening the world with war in Europe, the Middle East & Asia, including China over Taiwan, that is when panic will strike. It all goes nuts once people realize that the government is just a ship of fools with ZERO sailing experience..”
So if all capital is locked into CBDCs unable to be freely spent (carbon limits ostensibly to be one excuse/pretext for limiting what one can buy), idle funds will pile into ETFs thus stonks will continue to rally. But the catch is, Hotel California style you can cash out but only to the CBDC, which means you can never really cash out of. Presumably you will be allowed to buy the Bitcoin ETF but not actual Bitcoin. Thus when the hyperinflation eventually arrives, your profits and savings essentially evaporate and you have no escape mechanism.
Don’t get too excited about the potential for stonks to rise in price so much as I posited in this idea, because it’s possible you may only be able to spend proceeds on politically correct big ticket items such as tethered to the grid, 666-panopticon fully electric vehicles with the newly legislated remotely activated kill switches and all seeing in-cabin cameras for A.I. drunk driver detection. Or houses fully retrofitted with every Agenda 2030 green mandate. Goodbye freedom, goodbye privacy.
Armstrong wrote about the 1987 flash crash, “At the precise bottom of the ECM in 1985, they formed the G5 at the Plaza Accord responding to the high in the dollar which produced the high in deflation. The government does not want to learn how to manage the economy. They want to fool the voting masses just to retain power.”
It is important to understand from my recently published idea, Bitcoin is ending; no new high coming in 2025, that the impostor 2017 softfork of Bitcoin will die, not the legacy protocol which is The Digital Kill Switch instead here to enslave us not to help us. I had also elaborated on the looming ANYONECANSPEND restoration event (aka “attack”) on a published idea prior to that one. IOW, we will eventually will not even be able to afford to transact on Bitcoin because the transaction fees will be too high as the legacy protocol is limited to 5 or 7 transactions per second thus suitable only as a settlement reserve currency for the wealthiest entities on the planet.
Armstrong wrote about the 1987 flash crash, “This was the birth of the G-5 (Group of Five now Eight) whereby nations gathered together to coordinate intervention, internationally in an effort to manipulate the economy. This is when I wrote the President Reagan warning that you cannot manipulate the economy to create artificial objectives. The Chief Economic Advisor Mr. Sprinkle wrote back thanking me for the advice, but stating that until someone else had a model to support my warnings of a sharp rise involatility, they could not rely upon only one model. When the next turning point created the volatility from world foreign exchange markets manifesting into the1987 Crash precisely to the day 1987.8 (365 x .8 = 292 days = October 19th, 1987), I suddenly was urgently called asking for what would happen now?”
Also as annotated on my chart that on every instance of Armstrong’s 37⅓ year Financial crisis cycle, the U.S. moved another step closer to the monetary reset end game. And what was launched in 2008 on the most recent instance of the 37⅓ year cycle? Bitcoin (Satoshi announced Bitcoin in emails in 2008).
(source)
Comment
The 72 to 80 year cycle of collapse following Great Britain’s 224-year cycle of growth, was less onerous than what is faced by the collapse cycle of the U.S. underway, ostensibly because the Anglo-Saxon global empire continued (after overthrowing the monarchy) with the transfer of the global reserve currency from the British pound (and gold) to the U.S. dollar (and only temporarily the gold standard) with the Thucydides trap of the two world wars.We face a dystopian, nation-enslaving Bitcoinization global standard (because no nations will be forced to trust each other’s national fiat shitcoins) in a fractious, multi-polar world of no single global hegemon.
Read at least the succinct §Get Out in Arthur Hayes’ Kiaseki blog on the looming financial repression{¹} and the Austrian crack up boom it will cause in stonks and ETFs.
{¹} Thus the need to cancel cash and force everyone onto 666-like, panopticon CBDCs to be introduced as UBI and forced into adoption with totalitarianism and perhaps a banking (or staged false-flag cyberattack on banks?) crisis circa 2024 to 2026. Hayes explains that if the BTFP was allowed to expire on March 12, 2023, there would be instant banking defaults contagion and bank runs. Not claiming it won’t be renewed. The FedNow instant withdrawal system was put in place in 2023 and will facilitate rapid, wildfire bank runs when/if our overlords are ready to push the ignite button. It should be easy to understand why Armstrong implied these flash crashes such as 1987 and 2000 are an indication that the U.S. financial system is becoming unstable and unhinged thus being a harbinger of the system eventually going entirely off-the-rails.
Hyperinflation is never caused by money printing alone, but when the public loses CONFIDENCE and tries to withdraw their capital from the system. For example in Japan domestic price deflation persists despite persistent, pernicious BoJ monetary easing because of domestic demographic collapse, being primarily a technological export nation wherein technological advance keeps driving prices of exports down and Asians being conservative savers. Financial repression (which exporting nations suffer by default) will precede eventual hyperinflation in the U.S. because being a primarily non-export, consumer, debt-bubble nation and especially the global reserve currency,{²} there’s no stable deflationary option— only a choice between deflationary collapse if the Fed instead allowed the free market forces, or the mafia in control of the financial system attempt to keep us locked into our cages of real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) wealth losses in the form of negative real interest rates and moar greater fool speculations. Slowly boil the frogs so they don’t realize they’re losing ground.
{²} Deflationary strong dollar is a self-feeding spiral, because of global reliance on dollar denominated debt (e.g. EuroDollar system).
Armstrong wrote, “The WATERFALL pattern is the opposite of a spike high. It is far more devastating to say the least, for in its wake there is profound change. This is how nations die. While I will save the example in details for the book, this pattern is showing up far more frequently on various levels of price activity and this is in itself a real warning of what is to come … This is why the dollar and gold will rise, and why yes, the stocks will rise as well! … The Doomsday boys who only see the doll falling to 1400 to 2,000 are lost in the crevices of their own mind … the fact that we have a WATERFALL EVENT intraday, warns that this pattern is going to manifest itself in higher levels of economic activity. Capital will it first rush into America for it can absorb it. This will swing the treasury bears who only see domestic inflation into losing positions. As they are forced into becoming bullish, then the capital flows will reverse once more and then we will see an outflow.”
Armstrong quoted, “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising them the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over a loss of fiscal responsibility, always followed by a dictatorship. The average of the world's great civilizations before they decline has been 200 years. These nations have progressed in this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage.”
Comment
Armstrong might contemplate to be more circumspect and realistic in his optimistic expectations for the USA! Also his egregious myopia w.r.t. Bitcoin will be one of his major oversights. He just can’t seem to realize what his own models are telling him about the future because it’s so alien to his Boomer (i.e. belief in institutions/governance) normalcy bias.Since the USA’s empire and dollar as monetary standard is ending ~2033 with Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM), to gain insight into the future of the USA, let’s investigate end-of-empire Britain in 1929 heading into the last such 51.6 year turn from Private to Public wave.
Firstly England was experiencing comparable decadence such as “social rights, identity politics and new non-governmental movements.”
Armstrong explained that capital shifted from Europe to the USA in the 1920s (and in general increasingly so for 51.6 years prior to 1929) because of the instability in Europe which was related to and leading to the first two World Wars. During the contemporary Private Wave that started 51.6 years prior to 2033, capital has been on the move out of the West (to Asia, Latin America) and now at the analogous 1920s in 2020s to Bitcoin instead of any other nation’s fiat currency!
Britain was becoming more socialist/statist/civilized as it became affluent in the 1800s under the Victorian era as the sole maritime superpower leading into its decadence. And after the Thucydides trap it doubled-down on socialism-on-steriods establishing the NHS. The inexorable expansion in government never lets an economic crisis (e.g. WWII aftermath) be wasted when it can serve as a pretext for its evermore bloated existence. In recent times completely banning guns for self-protection, thus eliminating any countervailing check against tyranny.
Government only ends the way Rome ended, when it becomes so destructive that everyone just leaves, and there were only cows remaining grazing in the Roman Colosseum as the population collapsed from 1.3 million to 30,000. The UK and USSR are in the end-stage cycle where they approach failed states and collapse,{¹} as they both transitioned from empire on the prior cycle. The USA is one cycle behind those two, yet also being it was the extension of the Anglo-Saxon empire after the hand-off from Britain, the U.S. Fed govt (and Fed Reserve) is likely to accelerate quickly to end-stage during this incoming 51.6 year cycle to 2085— remember 2033 in the ECM is the end of six waves of 1857.6 years composed of six waves of 309.6 years composed of six waves of 51.6 years.
That’s 6-6-6 and end of 11145.6 years of civilization. Thus human civilization in its current form is at the end stage— the one world government self-immolation pattern emerges. What comes next? Interstellar colonization? Digital-only-existence where we upload our brains and discard the biological baggage entirely?
{¹} Ostensibly China just conquered Russia Sun Tzu-style w/o needing to fire a single bullet and turned Russia into a vassal state by ostensibly bribing Brandon (i.e. the Neocons) to attack Russia to force it to turn to China.
Near-term James A. Donald is correct about there were never elections but now we know there are no elections. The Deep State will react to naked violence and civil unrest by weaponizing the Federal Reserve cum Treasury with dystopian digital CBDC power. But when they cancel the U.S. dollar as cash to stop leakage and maximize their power, they end the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency, break the EuroDollar markets and implicitly elevate Bitcoin.
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Armstrong is ostensibly pondering if the USA can unite in revolution by 2032. Highly doubtful.
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/revolution-v-civil-war/
“…revolution cannot be used interchangeably with ‘civil war’…{Propaganda} has…divided {us}…p{L}andemic {INTENTIONALLY amplified/accelerate our} differences…The 99%…now {in}fighting {instead of overthrowing intentional corrupt propaganda}…unvaccinated were demonized…Everyone was forced to choose a side…{corrupt elite are} pitting us against one another {to distract us from doing revolution}…{Brandon set} the Constitution…on fire…By…2032 {self-selected division or revolution?}. Neither side will accept the results of the {2024, 2028} election{s} if they bother to hold one at all {or if another farce of an election is even perceived as democracy at all}…USA will eventually break {up}…South+Midwest Bible Belt…Northeast…{la la land} Pacific {coast}…volatility {rises from} 2024 to 2032…”
Comment
‘Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it. Yet those who do study history are doomed to stand by helplessly while everyone else repeats it.’ — attributed to George SantayanaMerry Vaxxmas from Klaus Schwab AUTO PAINTING
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Economic collapse pressures will further divide society as a significant percentage become dependent on dystopian CBDC-distributed UBI welfare. Society will move in the path of least economic resistance, as a water flows down not uphill. CBDCs will empower the Green Agenda, further bankrupting the West, amplifying the gradient descent into a combustible mix. Inescapable because individual U.S. States/provinces DON’T HAVE SUFFICIENT SCALE TO LAUNCH NEW MONETARY SYSTEMS IN AN ERA OF GLOBALIZED INDUSTRY/COMMERCE.
The large demographic of retirees (Boomers) combined w\UBI-dependent impoverished will vote (politically unified) en masse to sustain Feds’ + Federal Reserve power to prop it up. Even my charted EW model of the DJIA implies the USA descends into centralized (i.e. fed govt supplied) financial repression until ~2037ish at least, followed by tumultuous period (secession attempts?) followed by increasing monetary debasement ultimately hyperinflationary, spiraling-the-toilet-bowl blackhole perhaps eviscerating Fed govt irrelevancy by ~2074.
Nation-states will split into chaotic political divisions, yet regional fiat powers (Biblical Revelation 10 Kings underway) will enslave their populations in CBDCs for a couple or decades or so, until the new Bitcoin monetary system has entirely destroyed the nation-state. The next phase after that will usher in the Antichrist, as all the world’s wealth will be concentrated in the Biblical 7 Hills as Bitcoin as hard money (reserve and int’l settlement currency only, not daily commerce currency) will be egregiously deflationary.
Sorry I do not see any rejuvenation of the USA other than as it shifts to the 51.6 year Public Wave (i.e. capital/trust shifting back to government over the private sector) in 2033— socialism on steroids (at the Federal level, while States try to opt-out but only in limited form because of the monetary issue) in the form of CBDCs, UBI, and all that. Because the economics will make it so. The prior 51.6 year Private Wave was FDR’s next level up socialism. So why would 2032, not be the next level up, until the USA as a federal entity exists no more by monetary self-immolation?
And besides too many of the youth believe all the climate change propaganda and love the idea of being digitally, panopticon connected. Why would the USA become more united? Most saliently, what is the Schelling point for people overthrowing the monetary system? How could they overthrow the monetary system?
Some Americans will resist and there will also be resistance in the form of migration to like-minded States, but too many Americans will be incapable of fighting back economically. Thus any unification of politics will be around restoring “fairness,” printing more money, taxing the rich, etc. because that is only the Schelling point of common ground— the rest of us will be the outcasts and targeted.
Maybe the Green Agenda eventually crashes and burns but the demand for money printing will only increase, until it can not anymore because everyone is eating bugs.
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Last call to for me to get serious about coding. Roughly 12 to 16 months until the next (and perhaps final) altcoin top.
I don’t think there’s any other worthwhile activity for me online.
Blogging and what not is a waste of time due to the Sheep Logic of humans.
Comment
Bitcoin is here to end all that nation-state corruption (i.e. fiat power as the inane way humans organize themselves politically). But this is going to be very weird and massively deflationary, which will be eviscerate socialism. What is really going on is that uniparty Neocons are losing control of the globe because the globalism debt bubble is bursting and they are trying to create wars, steal elections, and otherwise retain their grip on power. But they will lose, Bitcoin will win. Because in the process they will be forced to move to a 666-like, panopticon CBDC to control us and when they cancel dollar as cash, the dollar ends as the reserve currency. No nations are going to trust each others' CBDCs (central bank digital currencies), thus they will only have Bitcoin as a means to transact between nations. However guys pay close attention. The 2017 soft-fork protocol of Bitcoin is a deception. Everyone who keeps their Bitcoin in addresses that begin with 3 or bc1, instead of the legacy protocol 1, will end up involuntarily donating their Bitcoin to the miners when the restoration event occurs that destroys the soft-fork by forcing it to hard fork off.Also let me add that Bitcoin as the world's reserve currency after 2032 will be very diabolical. Because all the world's wealth will become concentrated in Bitcoin among the 0.1%. It is essentially taking us back to feudalism when usury was banned by Christians in Europe. Bitcoin in my view is actually is the next step towards a world government and the Antichrist.
And the nation-states will resist and they force all their citizens onto CBDCs to try to control them and prevent them from moving their wealth to Bitcoin and escaping the looming totalitarianism. This is going to be a very difficult time. Those trapped in CDBCs will find that centralized power will be abused and eventually tyrannical as the uniparty Neocons become more evermore desperate as their power continues to be evermore threatened.
We are heading into a maelstrom. Prepare.
Deep State is getting cornered and very desperate. A cornered, rabid dog is very dangerous.
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/a-political-disaster-2024-will-be-worse/
“So many emails are coming in that say they never voted for or liked Trump, but now they will vote for him to shake up Washington. These people in DC have to stop destroying this country. Trump is rising in the polls, NOT because he is some saint. It is all becoming so obvious that it is a vote against Washington.
…
This is the Deep State fighting for its life.
…
They cannot allow him to take office because they won’t get World War III. My concern is they intend to start war ASAP to box in Trump where he cannot exit a war they have already begun. Pay attention. NATO will be deploying more Troops on the border of Russia in Estonia and Lithuania, where they can launch an attack against Russia, whereas Ukraine is not a member of NATO.”
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Get your residencies and/or citizenship(s) set up for someplace warmer before it becomes more onerous to do so. Australians can simply drive west and/or north. Americans can drive south. Europeans only have north Africa or the Muslim option of Turkey, although too cold in winter for me compared to Cabo San Lucas. Climate of Agadir, Morocco looks good. ARE YOU HEARING ME NOW ABOUT THE RELATIVE VIRTUES OF FLORIDA, S.TEXAS OR BAJA, MEXICO?
armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/dark-hole-opens-in-the-sun-we-are-in-a-solar-minimum/
“facing a global cooling period in the planet that may span 31 to 43 years”
theconversation.com/the-original-climate-crisis-how-the-little-ice-age-devastated-early-modern-europe-178187
historyextra.com/period/victorian/frozen-little-ice-age-britain-thames-freeze-when/
“the River Thames froze many times between 1400 and 1815, with freezes increasing in frequency and severity…[during the Maunder minimum]…price of …firewood increased as demand for heating soared…[Europe]’s poor and newly unemployed was increasingly desperate, …[poverty, famine, frozen to death]”
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Most people incorrectly assume this will not happen suddenly. The ~13 year solar cycle #25 peak is 2024 and it is one of the lowest of recents. The next solar minima at end of this decade is going to be brutal and kick off the 30+ year suffering. Massive famine ahead as well because of the inane, unscientific “Green Agenda” propaganda, intentionally premeditated societalcide, cultural self-immolation of West civilization.
The strongest possible argument I can make to set plans to leave the UK and Europe, i.e. West civilization. Freezing and starving to death because chained by Green Agenda, prevented from doing the necessary things to survive is going to lead to massive depopulation and rural security risks especially in Europe and the U.K. which don’t generally allow self-protection and gun rights.
Comment
Forgot to mention after the WWIII (after its Thucydides trap) Britain nationalized the Bank of England and the steel industry. This is what the USA is on the verge of doing. They will nationalize the Fed, and they have already seized control of FAAMG (the Internet software industry). Musk is trying to resist but they will bankrupt Twitter.=============
From the comments:
> “so your saying us30 will reach 10k sorry confused”
QUICKIE, yeah sorry there is a lot there to digest, if you are not familiar with any of that bizarre stuff I am dropping on many viewers their first time being exposed to many of these concepts and points of view. Anyway, I presume you have a typo and you meant 100k. Yes DJIA (US30) should hit $100+k within a decade or so, if this model I have posited is correct. I can not say with 100% confidence this is correct, but this seems like a valid, holistic explanation for how the future of the U.S. and world play out in the 21st century.
I actually did this analysis because I wanted to see if it could give me any insight into the future of Western civilization, because I am very interested from the standpoint of contemplating what my strategies should be for my life, since at my age 58.5 now, as an U.S. born American State National (not “U.S. citizen”) I have not known a world like the one that appears to be coming. I grew up in the tail end of the wonderful era of the USA that had begun in the post-war 1950s. Seems everything is going to h3ll now, or on the way there.
But at least the stock market will be going up, YET MY THESIS IS WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CASH OUT. They will have us tethered to CBDCs (digital central bank direct control over every transaction). You can take profits, but you can not spend the funds on what you want to. We will have a carbon tax credit and we will be rationed. If this CBDC dystopia comes to fruition from ~2026 forward, then can not buy gold or Bitcoin anymore (although you can buy the ETFs)— not your private keys in head, not your Bitcoin, not your physical metal in hand, not your gold. We will be restricted.
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Comparing the Tesla Model 3 as the benchmark state-of-the-art mass market EV to economy vehicles of comparable dimensions such as the Honda Civic, make it clear that the EV is an impractical choice.
Costs ~$5 to 10k more at least. If you will not travel more then ~170 miles between overnight charges (for maximum battery life avoid fast or full charging/discharging), the Tesla offers more torque in a heavier vehicle. Fuel costs will be significantly less, perhaps up to 1/5th.
But the elephant-in-the-room is that those who are price sensitive to fuel costs, are price sensitive to the up front cost of the vehicle— was less the case during the 2020 to 2022 0% interest rate regime, because monthly payment was the main consideration. But now even insurance rates are crazy high on financed vehicles (need comprehensive not just liability insurance) because repair costs skyrocketed from inflation.
Battery replacement costs are coming down over time as well as vehicle costs due to battery cost reductions.
But the other elephant in the room is that fast charging them on the road reduces battery life, and finding a fast charger that is functional and isn’t occupied is a hassle, not just the 15 minutes charging time for the 50% recharge range extension, but any queue, time hunting around or going out of the way to find a functional charging station (much vandalism) not backed up with a queue.
Because the minuscule fuel cost and rate of customer flow throughput is so low, there is no business model for putting up these charging stations and having an attendant guard them with an adjunct convenience store.
The government would have to basically force people to buy EVs which would result in economic misallocation of resources and even worse economic failure ahead.
The EV paradigm is the self-immolation paradigm.
Maybe a decade out or so, EVs might reach a natural price parity with ICEVs, but still the charging issue will persist. So they might be sensible in the urban areas for certain use cases.
The price parity can be reached sooner by driving up the cost of ICEVs as the bastards overlords have been doing, but this will just cause economic collapse anyway. So thus I repeat, the EV paradigm is the self-immolation paradigm.
Be sure though our overlords are going to try. And they will twist everything evermore totalitarian as they attempt to force the outcome they want.
Note in China, their need for short urban commutes and tiny vehicles, perhaps means their small battery EVs are price parity already to ICEVs. China has to import all their oil, so I presume gas prices were high (BEFORE XI CONQUERED RUSSIA BY BRIBING BIDEN TO ATTACK RUSSIA VIA UKRAINE)?
> “Quite a few charging stations here in metro DC are powered by diesel generators!”
Yeah that makes (non)“sense” because the other problem is that fast charging requires wide taps to the grid which simply don’t exist everywhere.
Comment
Martin you had better make sure you understand the following. I am tired of trying to explain this to you, you old geezer. I respect you a lot but you are so ossified on this issue. I am 58 years old, not so much younger than you!======================
Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {1/6/24 2:14 AM}
What is so weird is Armstrong will never comprehend the following, because while he is entirely wrong about Bitcoin, he is simultaneously entirely correct. How can that be? Because there are two Bitcoins— a fact that very people know and obviously Armstrong does not know this even though I have written to him many times about legacy vs. 2017 soft fork being two separate protocols which coexist until the 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 restoration event transpires.
Armstrong can’t even get the creation date for Bitcoin correct as it was announced in emails on August 22, 2008 (bitcoinist.com/satoshi-nakamotos-secret-email-emerges/) not June 3, 2009, which referenced an earlier email correspondence with Adam Back which may have been in July 2008 (cointelegraph.com/news/adam-back-on-satoshi-emails-privacy-concerns-and-bitcoins-early-days). Armstrong also does not seem to be aware of Mircea Popescu who has 500,000 Bitcoins (primarily earned from his Satoshi Dice venture) and who ostensibly faked his death in July 2021 perhaps on the anniversary of Bitcoin’s creation— 13 years later thus Friday the 13th or 1.5 times Armstrong’s Pi Cycle of 8.6 years?
armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/the-truth-about-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies-an-unpopular-analysis/
“Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.”
This is what the 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 event will do to restructure what Bitcoin is and used for, as it will destroy the ‘official’ Bitcoin (the 2017 soft-fork) which is actually an impostor. It will confiscate all of the Bitcoin of those on that protocol and transfer it to the miners on Satoshi’s original legacy protocol. And thus will transform Bitcoin from a system that could scale transaction volume with Lightning Networks to a system that can only do ~5 transactions per second for the entire world. This will be perfect as a new world reserve currency, because the transaction fees will be too high for plebs to use it.
Armstrong will be gloating when that 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 attack comes because he and almost everyone in the world will think Bitcoin is dead (maybe in 2026 or 2030), as the price will go to near $0 for the impostor protocol.
“Every major central bank has said they plan to move to CBDC. The entire purpose of the CBDC is to impose COMPLETE capital controls. So, how will you buy and sell anything that they deem to be a threat to their totalitarian world?”
What part of Bitcoin was not created for use by the public does Armstrong not understand? It will be used by Central Banks, corporations and billionaires only. None of these entities will be able to trust the CDBCs of different nations.
Has Armstrong failed to notice that each nation will have a different CBDC? These will not all be interoperable, nor trustworthy! Governments are dying, becoming desperate and rogue. The capital controls will be chaotic. The world is entering a period of chaos and disorder where nothing will be trustworthy. Bitcoin will be the only thing that is trustworthy for those will international settlement and clearing obligations. They can not go back to the Stone Age of shipping gold or using gold receipts for globalized settlement— we live in a digital era.
Comment
“Could governments seize bitcoin?”There is no plausible way to seize Bitcoin if the mnemonic private key is memorized inside your head only. What is the govt going to do, cut open my brain and dig out the private key? Waterboard me?
Yes the government can effectively seize Bitcoin by placing regulations on it that most people will follow. But not everyone will follow the regulations. Black markets always exist. And the more desperate that people become, the more that governments disintegrate, self-immolate and defile themselves. the more people that will choose to disobey and use black markets.
Will most people turn to “illegal” black markets? Probably not. Depends on how desperate people are.
As for the $600 reporting threshold, again that applies only if the rule-of-law is worth adhering to. What if the rule-of-law collapses?
If the gestapo is going to take everything people have and throw all white men in prison anyway for not paying taxes, then what do the people lose with civil disobedience? And how can States’ rights exist if States lack economies-of-scale to make their own money in this modern era?
So it is not quite clear yet how pear-shaped everything will be and the timing. But Bitcoin will eventually play some role. Whether it is used by many people for a while (until transaction fees become too excessive) or whether it will only be used by central banks, corporations and billionaires remains to be observed as we observe how the rule-of-law holds up or collapses.
Also as for the $600 legal limit, it would be possible to design like a virtual game crypto currency that would be decentralized and could be used for transactions online which would typically be less than $50. And this could become a huge online economy. I am actually working on this.
It is quite amusing to see Armstrong still so intransigent and still a nearly extinct dinosaur incapable of comprehending how the monetary system will be reformed and the pivotal role Bitcoin will play. I guess his brain is too ossified to actually add 2 + 2.
“Governments have reached the end of their rope and are actively on the hunt for additional taxes. They will default on all their debts, and the new monetary system they are planning will give them total control.”
Indeed. Precisely why Bitcoin will be needed and precisely why the governments and their CBDC systems will self-immolate.
But the salient distinction is that the CBDCs will not end by some coming together party of society after 2032 as Armstrong’s fantasy. No. The system will self-immolate over decades as the power vacuum is milked by MMT or whatever politics exists to serve the bankrupted Western masses who will demand the government take care of them. Has Armstrong not realized how entitled and self-important Westerners are? Does he even understand entropy, power-vacuums and political transformation? The revolution is not coming— just a huge insoluble mess that slow-grinds into irrelevancy by scorching those stuck in the CBDC system.
“Countries with strong currencies do not want bitcoin in existence.”
There will be no strong currencies after CBDCs are launched— only Economic Devastation (bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0). Ergo “countries” will have no say in the matter.
“Governments are allowing cryptos like Bitcoin to exist because they can trace the transactions far better than paper currency.”
Indeed the governments were lured into allowing Bitcoin— which ironically will destroy the governments in the end game because Bitcoin has a fixed supply unlike gold and silver which can be and have been manipulated in the past where the USA impoverished China which was on a silver standard— which btw laid the dys-economic (despair) foundation for the Communist Revolution.
Comment
Armstrong has concurred what I have been publicly predicting for weeks and months now on my Tradingview. Martin has at most $49,658 for the January top.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-the-cryptotrap/
“BITCOIN is merely bouncing to retest to the former uptrend line from below. January is a crucial timing target for a high.”
His overhead resistance trend line also predicts that Bitcoin will not make a new ATH in 2025.
As for the following, indeed transacting in truly decentralized crypto in transaction sizes over $600 will become incompatible w\the looming dystopian CBDC totalitarianism. Only buy&hold or the more intrepid willing to risk being doxxed in black market will disobey. Why do you think I moved to Mexico!
“They will declare computers generating cryptos “banks” and require you to report event transactions eventually $600 or more, and if not, apply the same regulations and threaten you with 20 years in prison for money laundering.”
==================
Here’s Armstrong’ latest thoughts on Ukraine:
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/ukraine/its-time-for-a-decision-on-ukraine/
armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/its-the-lusitania-ploy-all-over-again/
My guess is that the Neocons thought they could control the media narrative and gain the sympathy of the West for “protecting democracy in Ukaine.” Perhaps they thought the millions of Ukrainians could be sacrificed to the meat grinder to achieve comparable meat grinder of Russian soldiers, causing Putin to lose public support enabling an overthrow or election loss, perhaps with more radical leadership that would attack NATO providing the pretext for the WWIII that our Neocons need as the scapegoat to hold on to power as the global debt bubble Minsky Moment is collapsing. There was no other alternative (e.g. Armstrong’s The Solution) in which they could retain power of the global monetary system.
Thus the cornered Neocons and political establishment are taking the world to the precipice because they have no alternative. If they lost power (as Trump was threatening to achieve), they would be prosecuted for their treasons which is punishable by the death penalty.
My one disagreement with Armstrong is his belief that socialism dies after 2032. Socialism didn’t die during the last 51.6 year Public Wave under FDR, it radically increased. I believe it will continue to increase until the United States is no more by 2085. The Federal government will be turned into a bastard child which is prostituted for survival, as they print away the value of the U.S. dollar in eventually hyperinflation a few decades from now. And by 2085 it will be Planet of the Apes scorched earth.
EXPOUNDED: I wrote about my rationale before. The U.S. dollar ending as the world’s reserve currency after 2032 is going to mean the U.S. will be incapable of continuing as a consumer-based, import-led economy. This is why the elite are pushing the 15 Minute Cities and Great Reset, because they know they need some excuse (e.g. climate change scapegoat) for the masses being downgraded to a subsistence economy like China was. The actual productive part of the U.S. economy that remains—after all these useless eaters and their debts are pushed onto strictly rationed UBI (carbon credits scapegoat to restrict how much they can consume)— will opt-out of the U.S. dollar CBDC, high-taxation, capital controls dystopia. To the extent said can’t escape the CBDC system, said will be confiscated/taxed/perish.
So the discredited/diminished/reviled U.S. dollar CBDC system (once they cancel cash, the dollar can not be the reserve currency anymore) will be the death star system for the underbelly of the West that strangles itself in self-immolation. So it will be a system that is abused and prostituted until it is no more. The productive will demand States’ rights and increasingly over the years and decades the States will defy the Feds and eventually detach their monetary systems as well once the dollar has been fully tarred, feathered and MMT milked to its end.
Note the end of the hegemony of the U.S. dollar will be a massive power vacuum that will suck in warlords, rogue States, Civil Wars all over, etc.. The world is going to be a chaotic mess.
Comment
Following is relevant to the demise of the United States of America as we once know it…“it was nice when we stole it” and nice knowing ya…👋🖕Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {1/5/24 5:22 PM}
I believe Armstrong is incorrect in his understanding of the Electoral College and the relevant law. The conservative Supreme Court should rule for States’ rights and the States have complete autonomy for how they choose electors (as it says in the Constitution it’s decided by the State legislatures). Thus they will refuse to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court decision. And I think that is the correct decision.
We really need the United States to revert to States’ rights, else we can be caught in totalitarianism from the Federal level. At least with States’ rights, we can move from the leftistard States to the sane States. Let the Blue States crash and burn along with the United States as we once knew it— that is what it must be.
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/supreme-court-to-decide-if-trump-can-be-removed-from-ballots/
Armstrong wrote:
“I personally would be shocked if the Supreme Court agreed and kicked Trump off the ballot … That would be the end of the United States and the Constitution, regardless of who is running. We just cannot go there.”
We are going there, if not this looming Supreme Court decision, then by other desperate and insane actions of the uniparty Deep State in their quest to defeat MAGA populism.
archives.gov/electoral-college/provisions
I bet Supreme Court will refuse to intervene in Colorado’s ban on Trump.
Clearly the current Supreme Court has been siding with legislative and States’ rights whether it be the EPA ruling (that EPA can’t set regulation via policy) and the abortion issue.
rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/supreme-court-allows-idaho-abortion-ban-1234941475/
“The court order rebuffs the Biden administration’s argument that hospitals receiving Medicare funds are required by federal law to provide emergency care.”
Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {1/5/24 8:41 PM}
Armstrong is citing the Equal Protection Clause employed in Bush v. Gore as the grounds for the Supreme Court intervening, but (not only is every Constitutional amendment after the Civil War invalid yet I will not rely on that argument) but that said clause has no relevancy to the issue of whether the State has the right to set its own election laws (applied consistently throughout the State thus not violating said clause). The argument that Trump is on the ballot in some States and not in others is not inconsistent application of any law as each State sets it election laws independently as stated in the Constitution! Armstrong claims to be expert in Constitutional law, but this is like an obvious lapse of logic on his part.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore
Interesting to read (linked below) the “U.S. Pravda’s” take on the coming Constitutional crisis/crises. Of course it’s mostly outright lies and propaganda. Biden’s “violence” fails to mention that nobody that was at the Capitol was ever charged with insurrection. Or for anyone who has actually watched the fully released video is that the Capitol guards were ordered to escort Trump supporters into the Capitol. Or that there were FBI agent provocateurs leading the so called “insurrection” which was nothing more than sight-seeing and taking selfies. Heck even Nancy Pelosi’s son was among them. Are there any people ill-informed or ideologically unhinged enough to believe this rag?
rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/donald-trump-constitutional-crisis-1234939887/
rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plot-to-turn-jan-6-trial-into-maga-freak-show-1234938951/
rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/elon-musk-great-replacement-conspiracy-theory-1234941337/
Comment
Previously I quoted Armstrong:“Trump is rising in the polls, NOT because he is some saint. It is all becoming so obvious that it is a vote against Washington.”
…
“…beware of the 2nd quarter next year…”
=========
rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/donald-trump-constitutional-crisis-1234939887/
“there has always been some share of American and European populations — usually between 15 and 30 percent — who have supported right-wing populist nationalism … sometimes these people actually win elections, especially when the opposition is divided. This happened in 2016, when Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 44 percent of the votes”
A key insight is that the far-right Freedom Caucus is asserting itself now directly by the small minority of 30 or so House members who are prefer gridlock or govt shutdown if necessary. They can call for a new speaker and then block his replacement (to stall all voting in the Congress) if refuses to hold the party to their “far-right” demands. The Federal government depends on the Congress to pass a budget annually, else it must shutdown.
Fed won’t be able sustainably lower rates bcz the Green New Deal (and destruction of globalism by war+capital controls) and rising taxation (to fund bankrupt retirement obligations) is driving price inflation. Congress is now passing the budget piecemeal, which means if they shutdown most of it (over fight against immigration), they can still fund UBI welfare to throw a life raft to the economically affected populace. Thus how they will onboard the economy onto CBDCs (to be argued as necessary to prevent stimi fraud seen during Covid and make sure it is spent on essential needs not drugs) by bankrupting everyone as the pretext Hegelian dialectic problem that requires the CBDCs as the solution, while blaming it (scapegoating it) on the “far-right.”
After we get past the initial shock and selloff bcz of the govt shutdown (plus Reverse Repos will be entirely drained by March requiring a market correction) in February and March, the stock market can rally into 2025 because interest rates might be cut in March and/or May, then paused into 2025 but not going much lower which might cause a massive flood out of 10Y bonds into stonks.
armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/what-will-the-fed-do-in-2024/
“Now, consider the dates above and consider what events align with them … Institutions are buying up government debt without considering the potential that rates may not fall.”
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/one-third-of-americans-believe-elections-are-rigged/
“The efforts to take Trump off the ballot in Maine and Colorado only add fuel to the idea that Biden was INSTALLED and not elected. Biden is not campaigning or attempting to secure his position as POTUS since the establishment already knows the outcome. Hence, we will see a major upturn in civil unrest as the election approaches and a heightened prospect of a waived election.”
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/rigging-the-2020-election-beyond/
Regarding your recent blog posts on the election being rigged, I think three anomalies prove that it was:
1. Trump is the first incumbent President in history to allegedly lose while increasing his vote total from the previous election. All previous incumbent Presidents who did so won reelection…
2. Biden severely underperformed both Hillary and Obama in all the “safe” blue states that usually vote Democrat, yet somehow miraculously overperformed both of them in precisely all the battleground states he needed to win. A statistical anomaly that has never happened in U.S. history
3. while most Presidents usually gain House seats after their initial win, Biden somehow lost seats while allegedly gaining the most votes in history … he lost more than any incoming President since at least 1928…
REPLY: Your statistical analysis is spot on … The major turning point will be 2028, reflecting that there is no way Democrats or Republicans will win in 2028 … This will terminate the USA and alter the world economy in the process.
Comment
CORRECTION: I meant Nancy Pelosi’s son-in-law (← photo), not son. Someone who was at Jan 6 and was prosecuted for merely taking a selfie inside, informed me that Pelosi’s daughter was also there.Note I advised everyone I knew not to attend the Jan 6 rally, because I could smell a Bolshevik-redux QAnon-nonsense trap. I have a very good intuition of such dangers, perhaps due to being I am a Cancer zodiac sign.
Comment
Martin I’ll argue you’re oversimplifying/romanticizing the future outcome.The sheep-people might not realize they’re doomed until they’ve already enslaved themselves to such a degree that only way out is for example mass suicide as Deagel.com was decades ago predicting 67% population loss in the USA by end of 2025 (obviously will be incorrect due to mass immigration). The sheep-people individually certainly don’t have the warrior genetics for shooting their way out (my 2D:4D digit ratio is ~0.928 which is extremely high testosterone, which was confirmed when I had it measured it in late 2017).
Even if the masses reject fake news propaganda after 2032, they will still demand huge Federal government fiscal spending, because otherwise many will be living in squalor (Sheep Logic prevails in democracy). And the Fed will control the monetary system, as it’s impossible for local scrip to be viable in the modern era as I explained to you previously too many times. Thus USA will continue to spiral the toilet bowl with too much government spending and Fed monetization after 2032, yet without the luxury of the reserve currency privilege anymore. That is unless the nation splits apart with a FAR-RIGHT reaction which kicks out all the sheep-people (so they can radically shrink the size of the government as percentage of GDP), but what monetary system do they adopt then? Bitcoin? Florida has the wrong trajectory with the size of government increasing, now building socialized housing for sheep-people! For people to come together and build civilization, they must be starting from low statism expectations and high self-sufficiency (e.g. the developing world). Developed countries must first crash back to scorched earth so they can reset. It’s a cycle. And it’s time for the capable to milk it for what we can, with one leg out-the-door.
Regardless of the machinations of how we get there, the West is fully cooked, ran its debt bubble statism as far as it could go (with the peace dividend post-WWWII) and now must self-immolate back to a Third World condition. The only possible alternative is secession/movement, e.g. Byzantium.
Observing you express predictable, Western Nietzschean ressentiment outrage (mental disease) aka virtue signaling. But why be offended by sheep enslaving themselves? Sheep-people deserve and will be, even after or as a result of Klaus’ centralization technocracy.
Martin you are (IMO foolishly) clinging to the past, hoping the American dream can be reset after 2032, but sorry this will not be. I do agree there will be an attempt and maybe the USA will bounce from 2032 to 2037 or so. But the overall trajectory is as your Collapsing Wave for the USA predicts is Planet of the Apes outcome by 2085. Even my analysis of Elliot Wave theory for DJIA confirms that 2085 is the hyperinflationary end (and it’s bcz sheep take all they can get, Sheep Logic):
(click for chart)
I realize war is silly, as we will be defending nothing worth defending anymore. And collectively will we warriors want to defend the statism-loving sheep-people and even our country, after it has been IRREVOCABLY decimated by illegal migration? The warriors dumb enough to think so will be sent off to die in WWIII. Remember my lateral ancestor was Isaac Shelby and my direct ancestors served in the first Mississippi militia. One of my direct ancestors was a wealthy saw mill owner from Shelby, TN.
Martin the country died at the Civil War. Everthing done since then has been entirely unconstitutional as it all violated the fact that our Constitution was a contract from the SOVEREIGN individual States granting only enumerated powers to the British Maritime Law to operate in WA D.C. because of pragmatic reasons that Britain was still the global superpower on the high seas for world trade. The warriors were culled in the Civil War and all that remained were the defeated who accepted permanent occupation and martial law (Lincoln’s Leiber code was never official rescinded).
============
armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/wef/nobody-will-be-safe-if-they-are-vaccinated/
“They have sown their own future, for when 2032 comes, I am sure that the people will rise-up and ensure that any such media operation is ever again conspiring against the people and that they deserve the worst criminal penalty possible.”
armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/democracy-crisis/schwabs-wef-elimination-of-all-elections/
“Schwab envisions the same as Karl Marx’s – the perfect world that eliminates the business cycle by eliminating private ownership. People are stupid, and Schwab knows that. Anyone who reads Aristotle or Plato understands their low regard for Democracy, which has influenced Marx and Schwab. Many people may be stupid enough to fall for these 2`COVID-19 and Climate Change scams, and they can easily vote themselves into Schwab’s world. BUT SCHWAB OVERLOOKS THAT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REALIZE THEY MUST SHOOT THEIR WAY OUT OF HIS WORLD OF SERDOM 2.0. However, As Abraham Lincoln warned:”
> “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.” {some-all, all-some but not all-all}
“They are selling humanity down the path of serfdom, and they can neither see the conclusion nor do they have the courage to stand up and say what the world is thinking, as in the meme.
Schwab’s WEF will also crash and burn”
…
“Socrates forecasts the future BECAUSE there is a business cycle. Academics reject the idea of a business cycle because they want to be our new landlord, and we are to be the mere serfs beneath their feet. We are always too stupid to know what is best for the nation or even how to raise our children. Schwab is trying to eliminate private wealth and our right to vote on anything, recreating Serfdom 2.0, where we work for the landlord who would graciously allow us to hide in his castle when invaders came.”
Comment
Martin I will articulate this one more time perhaps in a way that will resonate more for you.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/wef/netherlands-promotes-digital-id-at-davos/
Socialism will devour itself. We will not survive by overthrowing it, but instead by opting-out and letting them self-immolate and that includes all the sheep incapable of adding 2+2.
I have very little empathy for those who have become reliant on civilization and find themselves unable to opt-out, because truly if they intensely wanted to opt-out, they have options available to them but they simply refuse to make the trade-offs in their lives. Those who aren’t willing to endure some hardship or spill some blood to stop tyranny, deserve their fate.
Stop pandering to these people. And stop the Nietzschean resseentiment disease of virtue signaling outrage, as if we who opt-out care at all. That is not an action plan. If you rephrase it as a warning and suggesting to us to opt-out, then that morphs from inutile virtual signaling to actually voting with our feet.
Maybe you are freaking out because you’ve decided to stay put in Florida, which is turning statist/socialist under DeSantis (socialized housing, massive expansion in government spending, insurance corruption, etc). Westerners are addicted to their Leave It To Beaver society and participate in cheering the expansion of government. So they will collectively repeat their mistakes everywhere they migrate to. Western culture is decadent, which is why it will take several decades for the collapse of the USA to complete by 2085ish. Westerners aren’t going to pull-the-plug entirely on their opulent lifestyle and idiotic representative forms (of even local) govt.
Comment
youtu.be/9eRGHlvRkwI(Find out the fate of America and the U.S. Dollar in this LIVE debate presented by ZeroHedge)
01:15:00 Michael Every’s myopia is that the U.S. States themselves will be trying to destroy the dollar because it is going to be weaponized internally with the looming financial repression and CBDCs. 01:24:45 that global war is underway and will expand to that catastrophic Thucydides Trap WWIII by 2026ish which 01:28:20 Jim Rickards correctly explains the U.S. will lose. Brent is offended, lol. I am a founding stock American, so it’s not pride issue with me. 01:38:40 CBDCs indeed will accelerate the dystopia and the need to abandon fiat.
Comment
ADD: I see my other more detailed comment was censored by YT. Anyway, perhaps the more vital point is that a strengthening dollar, rising interest rates, global deflation pain of the $30 to 50T in Eurodollars the parties outside the U.S. owe each other, turns into an unstoppable spiral of war, supply chain shortages, and thus razes the entire global economy. This is a non-linear outcome, not a manageable one. The Eurodollar systems ends by evaporating into $ 30T of defaults. The horror that lies ahead is indescribable. I remember Filipinos in MIndanao were literally eating grass during the Asia Financial Crisis.02:26:55 Jim Rickards says the Great Taking is unconstitutional (5th amendment) this was after he argued earlier than FDR’s gold taking was not a confiscation and thus constitutional, because FDR paid fiat for it and then devalued gold. By analogous sleights of hand, the Great Taking can proceed, e.g. depositors receive the CBDC balances and shareholders receive the assets. Rickards says only by martial law, but the CBDCs will be de facto martial law.
Comment
armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/the-coming-new-monetary-system/> “The only benefit of Bitcoin is that it is neutral. But it is insufficient for world commerce because it cannot be used for lending or credit, or you end up in the same situation where it is just leveraged – the very complaints about fractional banking. You deposit $100 in a bank, and they lend out $92, and then two accounts show the same cash. The money supply can be multiplied many times through credit. The nonsense that Bitcoin would replace the dollar as the reserve currency only shows that those people do not understand the world financial system. To accomplish that, you will destroy everything – mortgages can no longer be made, and the entire world is plunged into a truly monumental depression, sending us back to the Dark Ages.”
And so Martin is of the opinion that the Dark Ages are not coming, lol.
He is wrong. Nobody will trust anything that is centrally controlled anymore after the dollar. Nobody wants to go back to that system. And there is no system whereby a basket of currencies or goods could be used as the reference unit, which would not be centrally determined.
Sorry but the future is decentralization and yes this will be incompatible with debt-based economies and nation-state politics.
THIS IS THE END OF THAT WORLD. ARMSTRONG BETTER REALIZE WHAT TIME IT IS.
Gold is not coming back as the global reserve standard. That monetary era relic already demonstrated that it was incompatible with the need to move wealth over distance reliably and efficiently. Besides gold would be deflationary also if was adopted. Might as well adopt Bitcoin instead, which is ongoing right now.
Surely Armstrong is reacting to my email where I informed him that Snowden predicts a major central bank is accumulating Bitcoin right now which will be revealed later in 2024.
Armstrong is correct that the world will be moving to a two-tiered monetary system wherein the plebs are enslaved in CBDCs and the wealthy, central banks and multinational corporations settle internationally in Bitcoin.
Note the nation-states will still attempt to run debt-based economies with their fiat CBDCs for some decade(s), but eventually they will be scorched by the Bitcoin discipline. This is going to result in massive upheaval. We are heading into a tempest and tumult for decades. Armstrong’s post-2032 public wave will attempt to rise up against the Bitcoin discipline but it can not possibly defeat it. We must remember that 2032 is the culmination of 6 waves of 1857.6 years of 6 waves of 309.6 years, of 6 waves of 51.6 years. So the public wave that is starting in 2033 is on the scale of 10,000+ years. The ensuing public wave will be nascent for hundreds of years and thus will be dominated by private sector for hundreds of years.
I previously wrote:
My thought is that smaller entities will be dependent on the eventual world govt, e.g. to maintain order between States.
For decades might just be a de facto order of Bitcoin has the fulcrum unit-of-account as described by John Nash.
Forgot to include the link to John Nash’s paper where he described what Bitcoin would become and how it will discipline the nations. We are headed into massive global deflation and socialism will be eviscerated. Expect (not quite teotwawki) warlordism and government collapse all over.
Skip to page 5, §Currencies in Competition.
web.math.princeton.edu/jfnj/texts_and_graphics/Main.Content/IDEAL_MONEY.../Older/PENN_STATE/babu.money.b.pdf
Comment
Instagram is destroying the women. Who cares. Let them self-immolate.It just is what it is. I should unpack that snide remark…
Logically makes no sense for me to have feelings or empathy about a societal phenomenon.
It’s really difficult to imagine any point whatsoever to procreating a daughter these days, but this may change quickly?
It is going to be very interesting to see what human civilization morphs into.
If AI+robotics along with the collapse of government+regulation+make-work-jobs-with-no-real-productive-value renders most midwits at subsistence-level farming in productive value, we could possibly end up with billions of the population which can’t even afford the raw materials for a car.
If the fewer number of capable males realize it is much safer to procreate with IVF surrogates, raised with Tesla-bot nannies, of what value are females except to sell their eggs and rent their wombs on the open market to the highest bidder?
For a while humans can embrace poverty to be able to still generate enough value to raise a family, but at some point even robots are less expensive then even subsistence level is not a viable survival mode. So then the females sell their eggs and rent their wombs, but what do the midwit males do? If the females let them occupy their wombs, they all perish. So the midwit males have to become hermaphrodites or seppuku?
Govts are only going to be able to stand in the way of this[1] for a short-while with their UBI and forced subsidies. Bitcoin discipline to eviscerate those governments eventually.
[1] Also new jobs might be created by robotics, but those jobs might be eventually performed by robots also! Robotics is more of a zero-sum game than other technological revolutions.
My refutation of more rosy forecasts is that the “creative jobs” are significantly predicated on the global debt bubble which is going away for a loooonnnnngggg time.
Another counter argument is that the increased productivity of robotics will make goods less expensive to produce— but my argument is more binary in that a person who is more expensive at their capabilities than a robot, then they can not buy anything regardless of price. Well obviously that person can pursue the poverty strategy up to a point. Will the cost of goods decline faster than the drops in salaries for the increasingly unemployable? An argument is that increasing production (thus also lower goods costs) requires more of the high-skilled workers that manage the ever increasing number of robotics. But the key phase is high-skilled (that can not also be performed by another robot), thus again my argument is the result is going to be much more binary because robotics will eventually be more capable than most people.
Will the humans die off faster than robots automate their jobs? Will AI enable humans to retrain faster than their jobs die off? Can you retrain a midwit to be a non-midwit? Retrain for what that the robots can’t do?
Will AI enable so much free time that humans invent entirely new jobs (e.g. game and meta worlds design?) and demand for those jobs?
==================
The agricultural revolution enabled the use of fewer humans on farms, which lead to more jobs in cottage industry, which ultimately spawned the industrial revolution.
Every prior technological revolution, enabled humans to move to jobs which were even more specialized to our big brains and remarkable hand dexterity.
Yet AI+robotics threatens to replace the big brain and dexterity roles for humans. What do humans move on to that can’t be automated eventually at lower cost?
Some humans still need to be leaders and creative decision makers, but this favors the power-law distribution of wealth, wherein the 1% take 99% of the value available. This phenomenon is observed with social media influencers.
The leftovers can’t make war, because wars will increasingly be won with technology as well, not cannon fodder.
As well Bitcoin will subjugate all the nation-states and concentrate all the world’s capital into an extreme, global deflationary power-law distribution.
I do think there will rise a new upper middle class that’s very high tech savvy. And billions of underclass that race to the bottom of trying to cost less than a robot.
That is the future I see.
QAnonemo wrote:
The positive angle to take on this though is the AI/automation/robotics/etc could ultimately decommoditize many of the things that make up the base layer for Maslow’s hierarchy so they are free or near free.
We’ve seen this happen over and over again, and there’s no reason why with certain advancements it couldn’t happen with fuel, energy, and agriculture.
I remember seeing a story about a boy who found a way to basically distill plastic back into oil. News about AI discovering hundreds of thousands of new crystalline structures and the creation of robots to create and test them for stability and capabilities in energy production/storage. And new techniques for generating new top soil even in the harshest of conditions.
It’s not decidedly dystopian. Humanity has a chance
Myself:
The application of technology is still a competitive race. If my technology can defeat yours, I can enslave you.
The more powerful technology becomes the more powerful the maximum division of labor and specialization?
P.S. Well known technology named Pyrolysis.
QAnonemo:
When you talk about then1% taking 99% of the value available, in a world of more abundance, there’s not much more to be had.
Poor people can live relatively better than the richest people did, even just 100 years ago.
As long as there isn’t a direct attack on the general population, we’ll work through a transitional period towards a new age… society will just have some growing pains along the way, and we’ll shed some of the weaklings along the way
Myself:
The absence of friction would mean nothing would exist. Past and future would merge. The light cones of Physics would collapse.
I thus discount the likelihood of a friction-free universe.
The control/ownership of fungible resources will become everymore concentrated— namely technological resources. Unless technology is not fungible, in which case a zillion flowers can bloom and no single technological superiority can emerge.
Comment
My comment on:Why I'm not worried about AI causing mass unemployment: Software didn't eat the world and AI won't either
understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world/comment/51268748
As I started to explain on my updates *today* on my recently published idea, the author of this blog is I argue blinded by too short of a look-back window time horizon. Suggest readers peruse my U.S. dies by financial repression, then hyperinflation.
I posit the brick&mortar world has resisted disruption only because the Fed propped up the global debt bubble to enable that misallocation and maladaption to continue to even more egregiously maladapted levels. Which I conjecture is just going to make it that much more difficult for maladapted society to adapt quickly when the sudden “phase transition” (e.g. the discontinuity as heated water suddenly transitions to steam) ensues with a sudden global collapse, probably in taking the form of WWIII circa late ~2025.
NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION. The technological disruption hasn’t been absolutely necessary yet, but the technological “molecules“ are heating up and getting aligned for a sudden, face-ripping, neck-breaking, whirlwind waterfall transition.
I will respond to some specific points in Tim’s much appreciated and eloquent enumeration:
1. Bitcoin will not lurch to the global monetary standard replacing the dollar until after the $30+ trillion EuroDollar market (i.e. dollar denominated loans outside the Fed’s banking system control) defaults creating scorched earth. The ANYONECANSPEND destruction of the impostor Bitcoin likely has to transpire first as well (the Bitcoin everyone is using will be destroyed and legacy will rise as the 1988 Economist Magazine’s cover story Phoenix). So do not make any judgements about Bitcon yet, as it is too early. All the plebs must be kicked off Bitcoin first, and the transaction rate returned to the 7 txns per second limit, so that only billionaires can use Bitcoin. Plebs will be enslaved in the looming two-tier CBDCs system. nobody will trust any centralized monetary system ever again after the looming devastation the EuroDollar collapse is going to cause. Dollar will become very strong one final time as the world implodes in a Greater Depression and war. The West is self-immolating as we observe accelerating approaching a phase transition to civil unrest mayhem. World is about to be turned upside-down. Boomers are culling themselves (jabs, begging for war with Pootin, etc). All their normalcy biases (e.g. towards time-honored institutions) will eviscerated. Bitcoin isn’t eating the banking system per se, it’s not about retail, but instead it’s eating the monetary system.
Bitcoin is not here to help you. It is here to enslave you. Wait I will cite the whale with 500,000 BTC who carried out the Dao attack on Ethereum on this. You do not seem to factor in that the world that comes after this global smashup, is a broken, multipolar world, where in some places warlords rule. Where capitalists rule, and the Gini coefficient skyrockets. You are either rich or you are useless.
ALL FUNGIBLE RESOURCES ARE POWER-LAW DISTRIBUTED. Let that fact sink in.
trilema.com/2015/lets-address-some-of-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/
trilema.com/2015/lets-address-some-of-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/
trilema.com/2015/lets-address-even-more-of-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/
trilema.com/2015/third-pass-addressing-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/
trilema.com/2014/the-sins-of-the-group-of-posers-behind-the-so-called-bitcoin-foundation/
trilema.com/2014/the-bitcoin-foundation-finally-incorporated/
trilema.com/2015/theres-a-one-bitcoin-reward-for-the-death-of-pieter-wuille-details-below/
trilema.com/2015/ok-so-what-is-bitcoin-disrupting/
I also hope for the brighter version of the future, but we have so much work to do, and that is not a given. The future looks very precarious to me.
…
Comment
…2. The Fed is the only thing standing between plumbers being dime-a-dozen (e.g. 1000 plumbers competing for every plumbing job) and the current situation where entitled people do not want to work. That entire monetary system paradigm is dying. The peace dividend of the fall of Communism has already reached its apogee. China can’t continue absorbing the West’s debt bubble so they must soon devalue their currency, import inflation and export global deflation. Being at the end of their globalism rope, is why they have been cooperating with the Western elites to trap Russia and foster the WWIII the CCP needs as a scapegoat to hold onto power. But the nation-state is going to be torn to shreds over the next century. I posit that the CCP has a few decades or so before they are disrupted as well, e.g. the demographic time bomb for China by 2040. Also the race to the bottom for economies that are trying to compete to the world’s manufacturer— Industrial Age is dying.
3. Writing about the sharing economy is myopic when the global economy is predominantly about the financial economy and the Fed. Capital flows are orders-of-magnitude more significant than trade flows. The significant theme is what does a world look like without a Fed backstop? With the wrecking ball of hard money in control?
Rise of Hard Money is a Harbinger of Misery
And how does deflationary scorched globe focus resources when there is no more backstop? Let’s hearken back to the Dark Ages when usury was banned in Europe and human labor was in such excess supply that West of the Hajnal line females delayed child birth to their late 20s and it was not even productive to breed stronger horses, because humans cost less to hire to plow than horses. The Black Death ostensibly reduced the population enough to stimulate the Agricultural revolutions. The abolition of (or preliminary work arounds for) usury was necessary to provide the finance for the consequent expanding economies.
But in a world where robots can manufacture robots, thus so capital multiplies itself faster than any feasible rate of interest, capital will concentrate and those left behind will fall further and further behind. Massive social discontent, but what will they do to defeat the robot armies of the capitalists to demand a redistribution of wealth?
I conjecture that the era of RobinHood returns along with feudalism 2.0.
The return of the servant problem
Timothy B Lee: “And most of the American economy is not information-focused: It’s focused on delivering physical goods and services like homes, cars, restaurant meals, and haircuts.”
That’s all propped up by the Fed. But not for much longer. What remains after?
“Human workers will still retain another big advantage in the marketplace: the fact that other people like to interact with them.”
Who cares what they like if the Fed is no longer able to enable them to afford it.
“For example, in the future there will probably be low-cost virtual schools where students interact with chatbot tutors rather than human teachers.”
And that will be the only affordable option. Nobody will be handing out student loans, except maybe for a while the soon-to-be scorched earth socialist governments may try to hand out dystopian CBDCs forcing students to choose unionized educational tarpits. And all those who choose that fork in the road will self-immolate.
The ATM example is especially pertinent because luxury is only a choice for those who aren’t impoverished. I suggest you check out banking in the Philippines for a glimpse of the Western future.
trilema.com/2012/bitcoin-and-the-poor/
“For example, it’s very hard to imagine we are ever going to replace human judges with AI.”
With the kangaroo courts deconstructing Western civilization, most certainly we are going to never again trust humans in positions that can be corrupted.
“If AI starts replacing workers in the coming years, that will put downward pressure on wages and prices while growing the economic pie. That will give the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates and give Congress more room to raise spending or cut taxes.”
C.f. my discussion of John Nash’s proscription for the future (e.g. Bitcoin as Ideal Money) in the aforementioned updates on my published idea.
The dollar reserve currency system will be dead by 2032. This is the 6-6-6th wave comprising the end of a 11145.6 year cycle.
Does Timothy B Lee realize what time it is? He had better pay attention.
Comment
I’ll deconstruct another article on this topic of our labor future.pewresearch.org/internet/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/
It’s likely true that AI will spawn the creation of many new highly-skilled, high tech jobs. But there will be relatively few (i.e. millions) who are qualified to fill those jobs (i.e. versus billions of cute bunny rabbit human protoplasm).
But the flaw in arguments that AI+robotics will only augment existing roles instead of eliminating a preponderance of roles, is (I argue) those roles only continued to exist because the global, consumerism debt bubble enabled them to.
I conjecture that In the ensuing deflationary monetary system (i.e. Bitcoin as the only trustworthy global unit-of-account), the priorities of those looking to accumulate wealth and capital will be diverted away from throwing socialist-propped-up protoplasm-blobs into the IPO-scam financialization money pit, in a mad race to capture a share of the Brrrr money printer, to instead of maximizing return-on-capital-investment which will be a much more cold, calculating position of risk mgmt and consistency of outcomes. The human laborer is a massively-embedded entitled liability, that will sue for his/her/its (pronoun entitled) fattening stipend, petition the government labor board, unionize, etc.. Humans these days are entitled and think they deserve community, work-life balance, etc.. Nature owes us nothing. We had our chance and the Lord warned us in 1 Samuel 8, and now the Lord (i.e. nature) cometh for payback as in 1 Samuel 15 (i.e. cull them all, even the babies and women).
“The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender.” — Proverbs 22:7
Westerns fell in love with 30 year mortgages, socialism and egregiously inefficient suburbia. Now they will be harvested by the natural reversion of economic reality. The normalcy-bias, exponential-function-ignoring can has been kicked to the edge of the societalcide cliff. Goodbye social safety net, welcome to feudalism 2.0. China has no social safety net and the world will be competing with them, and India, etc.. A race to the bottom.
Yes eventually after the billions have been culled by the socialist governments those protoplasm-blobs will demand protect them from nature, there will be a new golden Knowledge Age. Covid was the first salvo in giving them what they demand, per 1 Samuel 15. But we first have to get from here all the way to there, which will involve perhaps decade(s) of tumult.
steemit.com/science/@anonymint/the-golden-knowledge-age-is-rising
I wrote in my updates on my aforementioned published Tradingview idea, that the public wave which begins in 2033, will likely be nascent for decades if not hundred years or more, because of the significance of the 11145.6 6-6-6th ECM (Economic Confidence Model) cycle wave which is ending. That new public wave will be the NWO with a world government to replace the nation-states, which will self-immolate as their constituents demand socialism. Without the dollar empire and the servant class of Chinese to sustain debt-based globalism, the paradigm that ensues simply won’t be able to prop up such uneconomic paradigms.
Westerners are not at all prepared for the immovable brick wall they are about to slam face first into and have their noses rearranged to the back of their skulls. Their fingertips to be burned up to their armpits.
trilema.com/2013/the-story-of-pointless-and-witless/
There will be a race to the bottom to remain relevant for most of humanity that was lulled to sleep by the globalism bubble and thus never transitioned to the exponentially advancing future. Humans don’t correctly perceive the pace of exponential function. The doubling-daily coverage of the lily pad is only 50% covered and then the next day the farmer is shocked it is fully covered in lilies.
For example, Hal Varian’s comment in aforelinked is likely correct, but only for those millions sufficiently skilled to remain relevant in the new economic and technological necessity that I posit ensues. Tim Bray hopes for a government socialism that can redistribute to sustain the humane environment, but this can not happen until AFTER the nation-states are torched. Only the future world government (perhaps after Bitcoin becomes incentives incompatible by 2141 when programmed mining reward is replaced by txn fees) that will be able to enforce such a global socialism (and that will end up being Biblical Revelation hell but I will be gone long before that anyway).
My reaction to Kevin Carson at al’s 3D printing artesian prediction is indeed to some extent but bespoke is inefficient and the demand will only be from the wealthy. Westerners have a mindset of abundance of finance because they are maladapted to the globalism debt bubble. The vast majority will be in a race to the bottom. The globe can not return to homeostasis until perhaps the Georgia Guidestones’ 50 to 100 million population goal is achieved. Or sufficient percentage of the population has retrained in the new high-valued added knowledge age skills, which ever comes first.
Agreed technology is not deterministic of future. But economics is. Unfortunately not that many people have realistic understanding of economics and their cycles. Refer back to the 6-6-6th cycle which can be researched at my aforelinked published idea.
Comment
Again to recap so the central thrust of my arguments are not lost in the weeds of all I wrote.1. Whether technology spawns new jobs or focused on eliminating roles is dependent on how saturated the market is already:
sites.bu.edu/tpri/2017/07/06/why-isnt-automation-creating-unemployment/
builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-workers-jobs
And unlike during the two major Agricultural revolutions (following the Dark Age and Black Death), the Industrial Revolutions, by now human civilization is at the apogee of a massive globalism debt bubble that will crater demand. And the billions are going to be in a race to bottom as they entered the tail-end, dying Industrial Revolution, e.g. the discussion I had recently about Mexico and note that fits my model of the massive, deeply embedded maladaptation inertia that will retard the world forward:
youtube.com/watch?v=B1CC97WuM6w&lc=Ugyarb1WBxAJOzFK40Z4AaABAg.9x0lkCcou6EA0QlL11grDW
(find my hopefully not shadow-banned comments by @SMoore-vj7bt)
Note I love Mexico, so please do not anyone take those comments as derogatory in any way.
2. The reaction of humanity will exacerbate instead of adapt, because maladapted systems self-immolate instead of adapt, as they can’t:
fee.org/articles/no-robots-wont-make-us-all-unemployed/
(c.f. §Universal Basic Income Is Unaffordable and §Wrong Diagnosis, Wrong Prescription)
Ditto even regulation can delay and exacerbate maladaptation. The egregious socialism is the problem, not the solution! But Westerners will not forsake socialism and debt willingly because w/o it they are just in race to the bottom with Chinese who will tolerate much more sacrifice.
fastcompany.com/90906438/why-mass-unemployment-worry-sentient-ai
youtube.com/watch?v=KdhHO9HBZvc
(Jordan Peterson’s Full Testimony Before Congress)
3. Again that technology is not driving the dire outcome per se but economics is and deflationary spirals in the face of technological disruption juxtaposed against Wrong Prescription reactions at the government/societalcide level, are a prescription for snowball into Gini coefficient hell. Thus my rebuttals to the following are necessity (of the looming deflationary collapse) is the mother invention and 30% automation of 60% of jobs would still 18% unemployment if demand remains level but demand will also crater leading to a downward spiral in demand and that necessity of invention will bite evermore intensely in a spiral in the wrong direction. Also outsourcing has been the first salvo, but the catastrophe of Baumol's Cost Disease which sustained the West (enabled by the monetization of the Fed) is indicative of what is to ensue and consideration to when the Fed is no longer able to maintain control of this careening Titanic:
reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/s2nmbw/cmv_ai_and_automation_will_not_lead_to_massive/
4. True that automation can increase overall production and thus human prosperity:
archive.today/https://medium.com/swlh/no-ai-wont-lead-to-mass-unemployment-67c38a3ddb79
But that requires an economic paradigm by which the fruits can be distributed out to the population-at-large. When starting from extremely high interest rates and low global debt, with a fiat central banking system born in the Middle Ages, then humanity had bluesky to pursue.
armstrongeconomics.com/research/a-brief-history-of-world-credit-interest-rates/3000-b-c-500-a-d-the-ancient-economy/
(c.f. interest rate chart since inception of human civilization in Mesopotamia)
But we are starting from egregious maladaptation which will pursue resistance to adaptation (i.e. sustaining socialism) first. And choose rationing via carbon credits and CBDC enforcement, instead of a free market adaptation. Because the system is too highly ordered right now and the only path forward for nature (in its Second Law of Thermodynamics quest for inexorable advance of entropy aka disorder aka maximal distribution of uncertainty) is to first 1 Samuel 15 destroy the highly ordered morass to make way for the golden knowledge age which can flourish after that maelstrom smash-up.
See capitalists will see the deflationary spiral writing on the wall and pursue self-preservation and maximum return on capital investment, which robotics will presumably offer which can outstrip any double-digit rate of interest that the human civilization can not bear (as maladapted as it currently is to ZIRP).
Lol, Westerners below calling for another FDR pogrom at the apogee of ZIRP. These Westerners are so maladapted to socialism and financialization. They have no conceptualization the looming monetary reset.
linkedin.com/pulse/why-robotics-cause-mass-unemployment-part-2-mark-fairchild
Governments think the looming crisis will empower them with socialism-on-steriods, but Bitcoin is coming to disrupt them with a monetary reset and alternative to their CBDC fiat Hotel Californias (you can check in anytime you like, but you can never leave their looming capital controls). The Bitcoin ETFs are going to trap everyone and go “poof it’s gone.”
reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/11t0lz7/why_arent_governments_afraid_that_ai_will_create/
anonymint1.substack.com/i/137748629/what-wont-work
youtu.be/-DT7bX-B1Mg
(And it's gone)
Comment
Follow-up debate with that blogger.understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world/comment/51278117
> > > “The human hand for example is an engineering marvel—it has incredible degrees of freedom…”
> >
> > {my comment} But what level of proficiency is needed to displace a given percentage of jobs? We don’t necessarily need robots to be as dexterous as humans in order to for example displace 30% of 60% of jobs, which is an 18% unemployment rate presuming demand is level. What if demand is collapsing due to an imploding global debt bubble and the apogee of the bankrupt paradigm of globalism?
>
> “Machines have been steadily displacing workers for 150 years, yet unemployment is currently near record lows because demand isn’t level. As the economy gets more efficient people consume more.”
Demand isn’t level because the Fed is propping up a massive globalism bubble that is going to self-immolate and leave your mouth agape within this decade. Entitled Westerners do not want to work for peanuts. No surprises there, when the government is handing out fiscal debt spending like there is no tomorrow nor reckoning ever coming. The reckoning is ~2026ish in earnest.
Comment
Excerpting Curtis Yarvin:graymirror.substack.com/p/the-boomer-map
…The boomer mindset is frozen in a pastel pre-1980s caricature of an America which I am still old enough to remember. I remember the Bicentennial! It was awful. I cut my thumb on a chicken-wire float. I was sad and angry and scared when Mondale lost—Reagan was my Trump—I believed in the whole thing. The whole show. NBC and ABC and CBS, plus PBS for the classy people—that was us, of course…
graymirror.substack.com/p/the-contract-of-any-next-regime
…Back in 1994, the lovely and talented Newton Leroy “Newt” Gingrich, a sort of C-tier American Metternich from the Hardee’s belt, invented the “Contract with America.”
Except for winning an election or two, the Contract was a complete failure. It was not even a thing. Its content was the kind of vague, petty powerpoint of half-meaningful, mostly-irrelevant bullet points that passes for a “platform” in a post-democratic age…
graymirror.substack.com/p/a-new-theory-of-constitutional-cynicism
…Yes, in America there are still many enclaves, rural and suburban and sometimes even urban, where order seems to persist. This is an illusion. This is not order, but inertia.
These places are protected from the reigning chaos of the age by systems, institutions and rules inherited from the past: police and prisons and borders. Enough people still believe in these artifacts that they have not yet vanished from the earth. Yet, if they did not already exist, no one would invent them. The energy and conviction is lacking. This shows that they are legacy systems which will inevitably disappear…
…Within a few years after this triumph of human rights, America will finally look like the world. That is, it will look like the rest of the world: the Third World. The noble joy of bringing this about will be comparable to the joy of defeating South African apartheid in the ‘90s. (Indeed, borders are literally apartheid.) The America it creates will look like South Africa in the ‘20s. And your suburb will not be exempt—not once police and prisons have gone the way of insane asylums and prayer in schools. South Africa has a Constitution, too…
…Let us tear apart this theory of “constitutional originalism” from bottom to top. It will be seen that originalism is no more than a cope by which we avoid thinking about the reality of our dead Constitution…
…It is impossible to understand constitutional originalism without understanding that 18th-century New Englanders were law nerds. They were not salaried “wagecucks.” They were a community of small businessmen and farmers who lived and breathed contracts. Defining political science in terms of contract law made total sense to these people—just as defining it in terms of operating systems would have made total sense to a community of software engineers.
Yet the conceit falls apart as soon as we look at it. Not only is there no such thing as a heritable contract—no one can sign a contract that binds his descendants—the United States already had a contractual government, the Articles of Confederation. This new Constitution was simply illegal under the Article…
…it would be obvious that the government we have has nothing but the most superficial resemblance to the one they designed.
Their answer, as law nerds, would be that the Constitution is obviously null and void. As a contract, it has long since been broken. As an operating system, it has little or nothing to do with the principles of its designers.
Both from updated covert intent and updated good faith, it is long since time for all good men and women to abandon their “sad devotion to that ancient religion”—and do what is right in their own eyes, following only the laws of “God and nature’s God.”
Comment
Kudos Martin Armstrong. Now you are being frank. Humans do not perceive the exponential function. This will proceed in the blink of an eye.The Collapse of a Nation Takes 13 years
“What they have unleashed against Trump is EXTREMELY dangerous. The allegations and summary execution of the fake Cataline Conspiracy by Cicero was a turning point that ultimately led to the Civil War and the collapse of the Roman Republic 13 years later. When we reach 2032, it will be also about 13 years from the entire conspiracy that began in 2019 to overthrow the United States as we have known it.”
armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/a-look-back-at-socrates-forecasts-from-january-2020/
“For those who wrote in asking if I still stand by my claims – yes, the computer is still indicating that we are looking at a Dow that could rise to 65,000 by 2032, when we are likely to see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide.”
Comment
Check out the linked chart!!!Middle-class Democrats will not get serious about the economy until they can not eat. They will not hear the cries of the lower-class (e.g. African-American communiy) who are being pushed out by migrants, until they themselves have joined the ranks of the indigent. Should not be too long now. Within this decade and 4 more years of self-immolation underway.
axios.com/2024/03/09/congress-delay-government-shutdown-spending
(c.f. Charted: Partisan priorities for Biden's 2024 State of the Union)
Comment
Fascinating video. I have been aware of the Fourth Turning cycle thesis for a long time.youtu.be/K_7DaWvpNzA
(Neil Howe's Dire Prediction: Economic Stagnation and the End of Prosperity)
10:27 John McCain once said about Boomers, “everything they touch becomes more meaningful, but less effective.” This is in context of how each generation shapes change, and the Boomers have monopoly on U.S. cultural awakening and thus also the economic trajectory until they die off. Awakenings tear down institutions, fourth turnings restore destroyed institutions. We are now approaching a fourth turning.
Comment
Profound:youtu.be/B5if2hthPCs
(Michael Saylor - We Call Them Poor (Poolside House Remix) Lil Bubble)
Everything will change.
Comment
After bouncing to maybe ~17.5 this May/June, MXN peso is poised to drop to 14.5 in H1 2025 to complete another touch of lower trend line support for the broadening, ascending wedge pattern. Huge bullish divergence forming on the large time frames indicating it should catapult back up to the top of the wedge one final time in 2026 to 2027 at ~30. Or perhaps it breaks down, never to rise up. In either case, after that it will be bearish eventually heading below 10.thepatternsite.com/abw.html
Comment
Philippine PHP peso has bullish RSI divergence on the monthly looks likely to make another drive to 60 (perhaps this May/June), possibly to pullback again toward 52ish into 2025, before pushing towards a final drive to another ATH in 2026/27. But overall on the 3 monthly this chart is bearish and eventually this strong dollar will be no more and all currencies of the world will grow much stronger against the dollar after WWIII. Eventually the U.S. hyperinflates away into oblivion and eventually by 2085ish MadMax dark age.Comment
Tether (as do all institutional buyers even though I tried to warn Michael Saylor via his personal assistant but was ignored after making initial contact) are hodling BTC in non-legacy ANYONECANSPEND addresses and thus will fail when the restoration event proceeds. Timing is probably the next halving in 2028 as Bitcoin has been on a documented 10 year cycle since its original announcement in January 1988 as I previously explained.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/01/tether-added-nearly-89k-bitcoin-to-holdings-in-first-quarter-on-chain-data/
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qjasf9z3h7w3jspkhtgatgpyvvzgpa2wwd2lr0eh5tx44reyn2k7sfc27a4-nodusting
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No damn way the Fed will allow any interference with the plan to centralize the banking system to force a privatized 666-like CBDC since U.S. Constitution doesn't allow a direct CBDC. FedNow is just to facilitate the looming bank runs. Cyberattacks may be involved as well.coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/29/custodia-bank-loses-lawsuit-challenging-fed-rejection-of-master-account-application/
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Preparing for Satoshi to move his million BTC eventually, with Craig “Faketoshi” Wright as the excuse or pretext scapegoat?coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/29/uk-judge-freezes-craig-wright-assets-to-prevent-him-evading-court-costs/
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youtu.be/WggsNGRxzuw(More Wacky Ideas and some INSANE CHARTS!!! | Camel Finance)
9:44 notice that in the past this 12M stochastic RSI did not indicate a top until it dropped below 60. Currently above 70. Also the 3M and 6M are potentially bullish postured.
“Nice spot!!”
@camelfinance ty for interacting w\me. I’m not commenting out of disrespect. I attempt to challenge (throw curve balls at) your ideas, commensurate to your ideas challenging any of my extant perspective. To the contrary, I find your ideas challenging/stimulating and my research strategy includes studying a wide-range of opinions and analyses. I attempt to synthesize while also injecting my own independent thoughts. For example your M2 thesis (which is not entirely wrong regardless of any nuance layered on). Definitely the NON-INVESTOR (or the fearful too conservative investor that did not buy the 2022 bottom) consumer is strained right now. That must be factored in. But how much does the “real economy” matter if the administration is willing to flood the economy with fiscal dominance? RINO House Speaker Johnson caved and gave the administration everything it wanted. Now just waiting on the June 15 corporate tax deadline as the last liquidity draining events before the massive TGA is spent down in Q3 and QT has been scaled back. Fed will probably cut once in July. One of my counter-arguments is that the marginalized are becoming less relevant in terms of actual tightness of financial conditions aka liquidity. The money market funds have added ~900B since 2022. Isn’t some of that potentially FOMO money on the sidelines ready to come rushing into stonks if yields have peaked?
Regarding the 12M stochastic RSI my prior was referencing DJI. For SPX it is even more pronounced with the top in the markets not hit until the StochRSI had bottomed! Looks like ~8 years more to go. Then note that it has been 24 to 32 years from every sideways decades bottom until the next top. Thus 2033 at least before that sideways decades. I thus conclude you have the wrong model for the remainder of this decade.
@camelfinance why would TPTB not use their money printing machine? It is the last super power they have control over. Their problem is they can not force the Fed to monetize into massive price inflation. Thus they will be forced to institute financial repression (i.e. rationing, preventing exchange of Tulip bubbles for real things outside the corral and forcing people to invest in bonds via their bank accounts) so the can continue to exorcise their destiny. You instead ostensibly assume they need deflationary bouts to enable the Fed to reflate, but they need the nominal GDP to be higher than the interest rates so they can inflate away the national debt. Bouts of deflation does not accomplish anything. Also they will not be able to motivate all sectors of the economy to uptake such financial repression if assets are declining and the investor class is getting poorer. The bribe will be that all (illusory) boats are lifted as long as we agree that the profits are just numbers on a ledger and not FULLY exchangeable for real goods. Yeah you can take out 1% no problem to live a life of luxury, thus most investor-class frogs will be boiled without even noticing that anything changed. The marginalized consumer is becoming a government welfare zombie.
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