Trends in conflict; Earnings Likely to cause a short rebound

So again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days.

I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and I expect the week to be typical which means we will rebound during the Earnings season, especially next week with major powerhouses reporting (Microsoft, Google, Tesla). If NVidia was reporting I'd suggest we could rise back up towards 5300, but they are not until the end of May.

Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5040 Downtrend (4/18/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High

This shows lots of downward pressure, although several of the trends are a bit oversold as the 30m has managed to run away with the market.

Economic Calendar;
Nothing important today or the start of next week. GDP is next Thursday though and CPE is Friday.

If I was to express some sentiment it would be
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral
Longer Term - Bullish

... if the above makes any sense!

Oh, and yes, I still have those Soy contracts. They are worth a whopping $1200 after all this time. I may trade them in for some 6E contracts if I see that look like it could run back up to 1.10 any time soon.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management!

Safe trading, and remember your risk management!

Comment:

I did go into yesterday Long as I explained in this video, and cashed out around $2500. at around 5060 yesterday. Lots of earnings today... I'd like to see if we get a pump today based on Earnings that I full comfortable shorting again.

Basically I see this week being a bearish pin bar or shooting star basically, except that push down when Israel commenced the drone strike against Iran will leave a bit of an unintended lower shadow I don't think we would have had without that issue

Comment:

I'm just gonna hang out over here in my "I told you so" box 😅

Comment:

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... so everything went as expected, except we rebounded a bit more than I would have anticipated. This major move upward has left us with lots of higher highs on the lower timeframes as this settles up here, even though the downtrends are there for the taking of being lower lows if we fall back down again.

We did not get a 6hr uptrend, which would end up being a lower high when it hits, as we would have to pop up above 5302 to disregard it. I'm not liking that everything is a higher high though.

I did not short into today's fall, because I was expecting the pop the happen today without as much plummet from the GDP, and the fall that the GDP had I was expected more tomorrow post PCE.

I may go short here, but very cautiously.

Comment:

Mmmmm... just an FYI to anyone interested, I may end up just sitting this one out. I almost went short into the close at 5132... It did drop 10 points already, but I just don't have the warm and fuzzy.

While LOGICALLY I'd think we will fall going into PCE data, when has the market ever been logical immediately? Sucks cause I almost went short at the close of Wednesday expecting us to bottom back at around 5000 by the end of tomorrow, instead we almost hit that today, and now I just am not feeling this trade, given the FOMO that has been in the market to shrug off bad news, at least initially and especially, during an Earnings season.