BREAKOUT or FAKEOUT?? - EG
Updated
Here I have EUR/GBP on the 4 Hr Chart!
Ever since its visit at the Support Zone @ ( .8534 - .8528 ), Price has been steadily making Higher Highs and Higher Lows with the most significant High in the Price Action being Friday's High reaching the Resistance Zone @ ( .8586 - .8581 ) on the release of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD ( 175K Actual - 238K Forecast )
Now not only did we get an enormous Bullish Break on Friday, but by market close, most of those gains were given back bringing Price back to the cycle of Highs it broke AND a Minor Support Zone.
So .. Is this a BREAKOUT or a FAKEOUT?!
I think to answer this question, it will come down to the Fundamentals as of late!
I believe EUR started to slightly overpower GBP Mar. 21st when BOE decided to HOLD their Interest Rates @ 5.25%
Then, Apr. 17th GBP gets the HOTTER than expected CPI of 3.2% with BOE Bailey making the comment that Inflation looks to have quite a STRONG DROP in May ... Followed by a very disappointing Retail Sales read of 0% on Apr. 19th ..
-COULD THIS MEAN GBP WILL BE THE NEXT UP FOR RATE CUTS?!?!-
Well on Thur. May 9th, BOE meets to take vote on whether they INCREASE, DECREASE or HOLD RATES
Also GDP Fri. May 10th ..
From a Technical standpoint, I want to watch for Price to either:
Find Solid Support at the Minor Level + Ranged Highs to continue higher
-OR-
Price to drop back down through the High/Low Range with a Bearish Break using Resistance from the Ranged Lows
-DOES THE BOE HAVE THE DATA INFRONT OF THEM TO LOWER OR HOLD RATES??-
Ever since its visit at the Support Zone @ ( .8534 - .8528 ), Price has been steadily making Higher Highs and Higher Lows with the most significant High in the Price Action being Friday's High reaching the Resistance Zone @ ( .8586 - .8581 ) on the release of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD ( 175K Actual - 238K Forecast )
Now not only did we get an enormous Bullish Break on Friday, but by market close, most of those gains were given back bringing Price back to the cycle of Highs it broke AND a Minor Support Zone.
So .. Is this a BREAKOUT or a FAKEOUT?!
I think to answer this question, it will come down to the Fundamentals as of late!
I believe EUR started to slightly overpower GBP Mar. 21st when BOE decided to HOLD their Interest Rates @ 5.25%
Then, Apr. 17th GBP gets the HOTTER than expected CPI of 3.2% with BOE Bailey making the comment that Inflation looks to have quite a STRONG DROP in May ... Followed by a very disappointing Retail Sales read of 0% on Apr. 19th ..
-COULD THIS MEAN GBP WILL BE THE NEXT UP FOR RATE CUTS?!?!-
Well on Thur. May 9th, BOE meets to take vote on whether they INCREASE, DECREASE or HOLD RATES
Also GDP Fri. May 10th ..
From a Technical standpoint, I want to watch for Price to either:
Find Solid Support at the Minor Level + Ranged Highs to continue higher
-OR-
Price to drop back down through the High/Low Range with a Bearish Break using Resistance from the Ranged Lows
-DOES THE BOE HAVE THE DATA INFRONT OF THEM TO LOWER OR HOLD RATES??-
Trade active
Took a Sell Entry @ .8580 seeing failed progress from price to push higher.Waiting on price to test our Ranging Highs again
Novi_FIbonacci
Telegram - t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
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