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XAUUSD 1Y Frame: Deciphering the Final Impulse Wave

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Before delving into the details, it's essential to note the analytical nuances of this chart:

Heikin Ashi Candles: Utilized to smoothen price action and reduce noise, providing a clearer view of the trend.
Channels Defined:
  • Support Channel: Connects the start of wave 1 with the end of wave 2, with a parallel line extending from the end of wave 1. This formation aids in identifying strong support zones.
  • Wave 5 Target Channel: Connects the end of wave 2 with wave 4, with a parallel line from the end of wave 3. A break below the lower bound of this channel signals a potential for a deep correction.

Analysis Overview:
Within the 1-year frame, XAUUSD price action unfolds a clear 5-wave impulse structure. These movements are meticulously analyzed through Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci projections, offering a calculated glimpse into the potential paths ahead.

Wave 5 Observations:
  • Having reached the 50% Fibonacci level and extended beyond the end of wave 3, wave 5 has fulfilled the minimum requirements posited by Elliott Wave Theory (EWT).
  • However, considering the corresponding DXY analysis forecasting a visit to the 93-89 area, there is an implied expectancy for XAUUSD wave 5 to extend minimally to the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
  • A reanalysis of both DXY and XAUUSD will be crucial following this extension. Given the magnitude of the preceding impulse wave, a substantial correction is likely on the horizon.

Strategic Insights:
Given the interplay between XAUUSD and the DXY, as well as the adherence to the EWT and Fibonacci guidelines, traders should closely monitor these channels and fib levels. The confluence between the 61.8% fib level and the channel boundaries might serve as a strategic juncture for assessing the strength and potential culmination of wave 5.

Subsequent Analysis:
Transitioning to normal candlestick view reveals distinct sub-impulse waves within wave 5, indicating a more intricate structure. A dedicated analysis focusing on wave 5's sub-channel is forthcoming, aiming to pinpoint the exact termination point of this expansive wave.

Disclaimer

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