Ive been building a position on this stock for several weeks, in anticipation that BTC will be the first to move on good news and catch up to equities as the crypto rally has been stagnant.
I was expecting this drop on MARA to come fill the gap created before we had a MASSIVE move of almost 100%.
This retracement will give us an idea whether or not MARA is drilling its floor and preparing for reversal, or further down side to come.
Furthermore, we do have a trend pattern, however to me it is not exactly clear whether it is a wedge or an up trend, as I would not want to short after such a retracement. To me, I am more concerned at zones of liquidity as we determine support and resistance.
I was expecting this drop on MARA to come fill the gap created before we had a MASSIVE move of almost 100%.
This retracement will give us an idea whether or not MARA is drilling its floor and preparing for reversal, or further down side to come.
Furthermore, we do have a trend pattern, however to me it is not exactly clear whether it is a wedge or an up trend, as I would not want to short after such a retracement. To me, I am more concerned at zones of liquidity as we determine support and resistance.
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$10.50 demand zone huge pop
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So far going according to plan.
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Looking for a potential accumulation around $8-$8.50
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Starting to build position between 8.50 - 8.75
Trade active
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8.50 is the first major resistance
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Hoping we see a S/R flip at $8.50 zone and are able to push higher with BTC strength.
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Seems like we reclaimed and closed at our first daily resistance at 8.50 and tapped our level above.
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$10.60 - $10.80 next resistance zone.
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Be aware of the large gap below us. It may require fill at one point.
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Would ideally prefer to see this
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Gap Filled
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Need this level to hold for us to consider it an S/R flip
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I hope you guys are seeing a trend here. Every gap MARA makes tends to fill same day. One thing different about today, BTC price is dropping below $35k but MARA is rallying. Current GAP is at $9 - $9.10.
If we do not fill this gap today / this week, I must expect it will be filled eventually at one point.
If we do not fill this gap today / this week, I must expect it will be filled eventually at one point.
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Keep an eye on gaps! I also pulled a fib from the bottom to top of the recent move to give us an idea of local market structure.
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Ill likely be updating this idea more often than not as I feel like we may have a big move coming ahead, understanding the current levels and reactions will be important.
My main levels to hold now is $8.50. Holding this fib golden pocket would be great too.
My main levels to hold now is $8.50. Holding this fib golden pocket would be great too.
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Gaps are pretty annoying but likely they need be filled before we can move higher...
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sometimes it genuinely shocks me how simple it is shorting this stock. I would be careful on shorts moving forward, you can see the potential of squeeziness from the last move.
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Get Ready
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so close to filling the gap. I am okay to add some shares at these prices as well.
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BTC ETF decision tomorrow from the SEC. It could potentially squeeze the market. Watch this trend line.
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Heres your fib retracement on the last move, right into the CC
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Potential low, forming a reversal pattern. Not sure if this CC level will truly hold but we can watch the trend. 5% move just to get to the 200ma
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Not much gas left in the tank.
Waiting on btc to move to my lower targets before placing a long trade.
Waiting on btc to move to my lower targets before placing a long trade.
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Keep an eye out for $33,400 - $33,800 level on BTC
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Fibs being respected
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Looking towards 13.86 next level above.
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hoping for something like this as we move into big order blocks.
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Next up $13.86 pivot high
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We are currently trading at 13.80 after hours. Mondays open will be important to watch if BTC will blast through 40k and continue, or if this will be our resistance.
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BTC Clearly showing some bull strength, the question will be how long can this squeeze continue. Taking a look at MARA, the RSI momentum indicator on the WEEKLY time frame is now showing us a positive break with room to run. Could this potentially be the last leg we have been waiting for?
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We are officially in squeeze territory, if BTC keeps pushing, we may likely see a move up higher to $20 previous pivot high where majority of liquidity sits.
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Daily level at $15.76 is showing us resistance as expected.
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Long term picture on the weekly time frame
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I hope you all enjoyed this content and analysis. At this point, we've built an average position at $8.50 and will let this one ride.
Don't forget to take profits along the way.
I wont be updating this idea much at this point as there are not too many technical's to look out for. We are likely in a squeeze zone as I mentioned.
Good luck, and thanks for looking.
Don't forget to take profits along the way.
I wont be updating this idea much at this point as there are not too many technical's to look out for. We are likely in a squeeze zone as I mentioned.
Good luck, and thanks for looking.
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One gap fill after another. I do believe we are setting up for a massive cup and handle, combined with inverse head and shoulders and the final part before the ultimate squeeze may be this small pullback to fill the $14 gap, before we make that next 100% move.
Seeing several confluences of zones and CC levels, I think we may get a pump, then down to the .618 to confirm it as our support, and then make our move up.
Seeing several confluences of zones and CC levels, I think we may get a pump, then down to the .618 to confirm it as our support, and then make our move up.
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Get ready for the squeeze, you can watch the demand zone if you want to continue riding the trend.
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Well that was fast, just a few minutes later. This zone will be important to hold as support in order for us to blast off
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exactly as expected
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On the weekly...
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This would obviously be a great place to take profits if you have been riding this one with me, we are just about at 300% from entry. I will be looking for resistance from $32-$34
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Almost at our target, I am scaling out of this trade. It could be possible to see higher prices up to 34-37, but that is a large risk for me. I will let a small trade portion ride but majority we will be exiting between 30-32.
Well done if you took this trade.
Happy New Years!
Well done if you took this trade.
Happy New Years!
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Conclusion:
My overall thesis with this trade was following the gaps MARA tends to make being prone to volatility, rooting from BTC. I personally believed that gaps are treated many times as in-efficiencies in the market, similarly to large wick candles. In my opinion, those levels should be retested / filled by the market, only then can the stock continue to move in its trending direction.
For this reason I've marked out my current chart based on market structure.
Here are the levels Im going to be watching for if this stock does end up pulling back.
The market tends to over-compensate, and over-correct to find a neutral balance, or in other words a fair market value.
After this epic move, MARA will certainly find a new price which will be its fair market value. I will likely consider re-accumulating if the opportunity is clear. It could potentially squeeze higher, so you probably want to be careful shorting.
Moving forward , I will check the fixed range volume profile to identify where future price may be magnetically trending towards.
My overall thesis with this trade was following the gaps MARA tends to make being prone to volatility, rooting from BTC. I personally believed that gaps are treated many times as in-efficiencies in the market, similarly to large wick candles. In my opinion, those levels should be retested / filled by the market, only then can the stock continue to move in its trending direction.
For this reason I've marked out my current chart based on market structure.
Here are the levels Im going to be watching for if this stock does end up pulling back.
The market tends to over-compensate, and over-correct to find a neutral balance, or in other words a fair market value.
After this epic move, MARA will certainly find a new price which will be its fair market value. I will likely consider re-accumulating if the opportunity is clear. It could potentially squeeze higher, so you probably want to be careful shorting.
Moving forward , I will check the fixed range volume profile to identify where future price may be magnetically trending towards.
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Monthly Fixed Range
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Daily Range
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If you are hoping for more upside then you likely want to see something like this on the weekly. This however, could be a multi-month trade similar to this one.
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This is exactly why you take profits when we approach major levels. However, this massive pull back may potentially be a reload attempt. We moved down nearly 20% in just 2 hours and finding support at the Value Area High at $24. If we lose $24 then this would look bearish to me and likely trend to the $20 support pivot. A loss of that price point may bring us back to the range point of control at $10-$11.
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If MARA does manage to find support and shoot back up, I have pulled a Fib from the top to bottom of the move. Watch the golden pocket for sellers to step back in. If we break above then we may potentially push higher although I am not sure of those probabilities. One really interesting thing giving me the idea that we may see higher is the gap around $37, and ofcourse the gap at $30 before we saw this huge move down. Additionally, whenever we see reversals, I personally prefer either to see one of 2 things.
1) Blow off top on the daily with a large wick up and ultimately reverse.
2) A retest of the dump CC level where sellers definitively step back in and establish the reversal trend. Currently, we closed a daily candle full at the top before gapping down which is a bit strange.
1) Blow off top on the daily with a large wick up and ultimately reverse.
2) A retest of the dump CC level where sellers definitively step back in and establish the reversal trend. Currently, we closed a daily candle full at the top before gapping down which is a bit strange.
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Sellers clearly in charge today, MARA moved upwards of 10% in the morning, however by closing bell all the gains were erased plus some losses. A nearly 15% move from top to bottom. Huge volatility.
Lets see if we can find support between $20-$22 marked in my white box range. I do see bitcoin potentially moving higher. Im not sure if miners will react, but if we do, I have marked out my levels above.
Lets see if we can find support between $20-$22 marked in my white box range. I do see bitcoin potentially moving higher. Im not sure if miners will react, but if we do, I have marked out my levels above.
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I saw several youtube channels suggestion shorts at $20-$21 lol. I would not short a support level like this given it should be technically a stronger range as we have over 2 years of historic price action here.
On thing to consider, bitcoin took a huge dump, but MARA is showing some strength off of our zone. If you wish to take a long, you can can look between $20-$22.
A break below $18 would likely invalidate the trade and that is when we will likely see lower.
However, I would like to trade probabilities, and that is suggest the current zone should be treated as a support zone until it breaks.
On thing to consider, bitcoin took a huge dump, but MARA is showing some strength off of our zone. If you wish to take a long, you can can look between $20-$22.
A break below $18 would likely invalidate the trade and that is when we will likely see lower.
However, I would like to trade probabilities, and that is suggest the current zone should be treated as a support zone until it breaks.
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So far MARA is holding the support zone. If you purchased some this morning it could be a nice trade, stop loss below the wick low of approx $20.30.
I want to share this potential reversal chart on the DXY dollar index. You can see we have wicked into a downtrending resistance line, creating a rollover from the peak. We may actually be headed lower towards the liquidity zone marked out on the chart. BEWARE, its not a huge move but the dollar could see a bounce from that level.
In the instance that the market does rally, be very aware of the levels on the DXY as they are inversely correlated.
I want to share this potential reversal chart on the DXY dollar index. You can see we have wicked into a downtrending resistance line, creating a rollover from the peak. We may actually be headed lower towards the liquidity zone marked out on the chart. BEWARE, its not a huge move but the dollar could see a bounce from that level.
In the instance that the market does rally, be very aware of the levels on the DXY as they are inversely correlated.
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Nice
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Potential for upside move. We have reclaimed the current range point of control. If we get a retest and bounce then I would like to see the Value Area High marked at $28.30.
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Here is the longer term fixed range profile since MARA traded at $14. We are still above the range point of control, but this time we are seeing the value area high as the previous high at $31.30.
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Printing a potential reversal pattern here. Falling wedge, plus an inverted head and shoulders, falling into large support zone. We bounced right off the range POC at 23.75. Gives me reasons to believe that we will still see higher prices.
Keep in mind the inverse head and shoulders is still being printed, we would need a break above $26.50 for full confirmation. A rejection here could be a bearish sign as that is where the CC resistance zone of the .618 as I mentioned before where sellers MUST step in to establish the reversal trend.
Target previous high, stop loss invalidation is a loss of the POC (daily close below 23.75)
Keep in mind the inverse head and shoulders is still being printed, we would need a break above $26.50 for full confirmation. A rejection here could be a bearish sign as that is where the CC resistance zone of the .618 as I mentioned before where sellers MUST step in to establish the reversal trend.
Target previous high, stop loss invalidation is a loss of the POC (daily close below 23.75)
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Resistance zone to watch
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Trade active
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Added some position at $23, following the bullish divergences being set at support zones.
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Looking for a break upwards through the resistance. If we break above $27, we can likely see $29.50 again swiftly.
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Need this region to hold. We got a rejection of the neckline the first time around, now lets see if we can pick up some steam to break it upwards.
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So far according to plan
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Nice divergence on the low time frame
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Ascending triangle forming. Approaching support zone. Be careful with these patterns as they are 50/50 and can break down to the bottom of the triangle as well. The breakout target is showing me 34.50.
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Resistance Coming Up
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Potential breakout happening. Watch the re-test for confirmation.
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This is our big resistance zone I mentioned before. We are at the golden fib .618 as well as previous liquidity zone. If we break and hold above $28, It would make sense for the highs to be taken.
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Moment of truth
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Extreme volatility on BTC. Hourly fakeout
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Also be aware of this rising wedge pattern, breaking below 24 would be pretty bearish to me
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ETF Approved
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Patience, react, don't predict!
Trade closed manually:
Out of all trades now.
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For those that did get the opportunity to escape the trade, this was a really severe and sharp move down. The rising wedge ended up playing out. It makes sense for shorts to take profit, and likely re-enter short positions at our resistance zones. Right now, $25 does seem likely for sellers to step back in. If BTC pop up in the next 24 hours, expect this to be a big sell zone back down.
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For those curious when MARA will rally again, Ive made a new idea which you can follow on along here:
