2024-05-08 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

overall market comment
Markets went sideways again which means balance. Currently most indexes fight for the 1h 20ema and oscillate around it. Bears got a deep pull-back which probably ran many stops just to quickly trade back up again. We are high enough to qualify for a proper lower high so the minimum bullish targets are met imo. Does not mean we sell-off now. Have to see more price action and bears would need to make another lower low. Patience pays.


nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Same as for dax. Market closed around the 50% most recent low to high and we have to be patient for the next impulse to manifest.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 18000 - 18270

bull case: Bulls bought the low of the day which was a perfect double bottom with the open of the week at 18074. They barely managed to close above the 1h 20ema and they could not make a higher high today. So bulls are not as strong as they could be. On the daily chart it’s still only a minor pull-back and we have to see more price action tomorrow to determine if we get higher prices or a deeper pull-back to the daily 20ema around 17900. Next target for the bulls is a higher high above 18267. Invalid below 18070.

bear case: Bears got a deep pull-back but no follow through. We are oscillating around the 1h 20ema at 18170 and that’s also exactly where we closed. Coincidences huh. Bears need a lower low below 18070 for more bulls to cover longs and think this might be a top and we trade back down. We also made a decent double top with yesterdays highs. On the daily chart you can draw a trend line from the ath to the recent highs and it’s reasonable to see this as resistance.

short term: Sideways to up - Invalid below 18070. If we break 18300, we will most probably trade 18500 after.

medium-long term: Bearish - 16500 over the next months and probably 15000 in 2024.

trade of the day: Long from US open, bar 35 was too strong to not be long. Before that 18080 was clear resistance after the sell-off.