Been playing with 30DTE $MSFT Options, and I'm cautiously LONG
Background
- Been playing with 30DTE MSFT Options for the last 3 months, and I'm cautiously LONG since buyers always seem to buy at Bollinger Bands ranges rather than let it drop below those ranges, regardless of Earnings, News Cycles, or Open Trading Windows.
Growth Fundamentals
1. MSFT is a major holder in OpenAI pre-public stock
2. OpenAI: Will continue to benefit from first mover advantage at scale + API adoption (now part of many workflows)
3. Azure: Continues to benefit from cloud infrastructure adoption
4. Office: Continues to benefit from increased knowledge worker population
🧠 IMHO this combination is what will help us get to annotation #3. (Consumer hardware and gaming business is probably not going to make a significant difference any time soon.)
Technical Analysis
1. Weekly chart shows lots of support levels between now and 312.
2. Expecting buyers to come support 325 and bring us back to the "triple tap" level.
3. I believe we could also range here for awhile due to macro-uncertainty.
Investment Buy and Hold Potential:
1. Certainly a good pickup for the long haul, as MSFT sells to global markets, and has moats in across several different business solutions.
2. AI and Cloud Infra will continue to bring in revenue.
3. Most people are likely comfortable holding MSFT stock if they get assigned
4. Looking for
SPY
to hit $470 before taking profits
- Been playing with 30DTE MSFT Options for the last 3 months, and I'm cautiously LONG since buyers always seem to buy at Bollinger Bands ranges rather than let it drop below those ranges, regardless of Earnings, News Cycles, or Open Trading Windows.
Growth Fundamentals
1. MSFT is a major holder in OpenAI pre-public stock
2. OpenAI: Will continue to benefit from first mover advantage at scale + API adoption (now part of many workflows)
3. Azure: Continues to benefit from cloud infrastructure adoption
4. Office: Continues to benefit from increased knowledge worker population
🧠 IMHO this combination is what will help us get to annotation #3. (Consumer hardware and gaming business is probably not going to make a significant difference any time soon.)
Technical Analysis
1. Weekly chart shows lots of support levels between now and 312.
2. Expecting buyers to come support 325 and bring us back to the "triple tap" level.
3. I believe we could also range here for awhile due to macro-uncertainty.
Investment Buy and Hold Potential:
1. Certainly a good pickup for the long haul, as MSFT sells to global markets, and has moats in across several different business solutions.
2. AI and Cloud Infra will continue to bring in revenue.
3. Most people are likely comfortable holding MSFT stock if they get assigned
4. Looking for
SPY
to hit $470 before taking profits
Comment:
*gulp*
Comment:
9/25: I see some buyers stepping in at 315 and putting my money where my mouth is :)
1. Bought market price
2. Set up some laddered buys at 315 and 310
3. Selling some Puts as well.
Thought process:
1. R/R looks much more attractive for knife catchers.
2. There's a lot of support at 312-307
3. Happy to be a MSFT holder for long term so I can stop Swing trading
Risks:
- One thing that gives me pause is $SPY. I wrote this a few days ago and doesn't feel too comfy anymore: " Looking for SPY to hit $470 before taking profits"
- That said, for US Equities overall, I also look at AAPL as the bellwether and AAPL looks good to me.
1. Bought market price
2. Set up some laddered buys at 315 and 310
3. Selling some Puts as well.
Thought process:
1. R/R looks much more attractive for knife catchers.
2. There's a lot of support at 312-307
3. Happy to be a MSFT holder for long term so I can stop Swing trading
Risks:
- One thing that gives me pause is $SPY. I wrote this a few days ago and doesn't feel too comfy anymore: " Looking for SPY to hit $470 before taking profits"
- That said, for US Equities overall, I also look at AAPL as the bellwether and AAPL looks good to me.
Comment:
MSFT back at $325; that's wild 🔥🚬🤤