11/03/24 - 15/03/24
Welcome to another weekly analyses idea.
Last Friday (March 8th) the week ended with new historical highs. However we did not see our typical bullish rally that has played out before on a Friday to confirm strength of the bulls. Instead, new historical highs were created just 400 PIPs above the previous high which was then strongly rejected from 18416.3 level. The Daily timeframe clearly shows this rejection where price bought up until 10:00AM EST after which the bears took over and recovered the entire upside move from Thurs (March 7th).
The bears have gained their strength and we are now in a downtrend.
On the 1H timeframe a clear double top was formed at the highs followed by a break in structure to the downside. However this break in structure rejected perfectly from the pre-existing bullish trend line. So although a 1H Low was formed at 17986.0, it is still higher than the previous low at 17901.9. This indicates that we are technically still in an uptrend. But we should not be fooled as the strong rejection on the Daily candle shows that we are now approaching a downtrend.
This week I will be monitoring my lows and highs formed. So what defines a downtrend??
LHs and LLs OR LHs and Lows constitutes a downtrend.
The previous week ended with a 3H HL at 19037.1, but since price cannot buy from a low, it must signal a type of high on the 1H - 3H timeframe. As I mentioned, for a downtrend, we want to see a LH and not a HH signalled. This LH should be completed below the HH on Friday.
Based on the 1H Timeframe, this LH should be signalled at the support and resistance level which retest the 1H HL. Once price breaks structure we always want to see it retest the area which it broke structure before completing the trend move.
If the bears have truly gained there strength, there is a high probability that price will signal a Daily HL this week at 17654.0. This TP was determined based on the following reasons:
1. Completion of M pattern
2. Area between 61.8% - 78.6% fib retracement level using the Daily and 11H Timeframe.
Furthermore, if the bears have maintained their strength, new historical highs should not be created on Friday. Instead, a LH should be formed on my biggest timeframe following the Daily HL. As I always say, price cannot continue to sell from a low so it must signal a high point. And for a downtrend, we want this high point to be a LH that is below last week's all time highs. if that's the case. We can expect a weekly HL for next week.
Summary of Trade Plan:
1. I will not be taking any sells until a LH has been formed on the hourly timeframe anywhere around 18181.2.
2. After which I will be holding the sell until a Daily HL is signalled between Tuesday - Wednesday at 17654.0.
3. Once a Daily HL is signalled, I will exit and look for buys on Wednesday to signal a LH on my biggest timeframe on Friday.
Welcome to another weekly analyses idea.
Last Friday (March 8th) the week ended with new historical highs. However we did not see our typical bullish rally that has played out before on a Friday to confirm strength of the bulls. Instead, new historical highs were created just 400 PIPs above the previous high which was then strongly rejected from 18416.3 level. The Daily timeframe clearly shows this rejection where price bought up until 10:00AM EST after which the bears took over and recovered the entire upside move from Thurs (March 7th).
The bears have gained their strength and we are now in a downtrend.
On the 1H timeframe a clear double top was formed at the highs followed by a break in structure to the downside. However this break in structure rejected perfectly from the pre-existing bullish trend line. So although a 1H Low was formed at 17986.0, it is still higher than the previous low at 17901.9. This indicates that we are technically still in an uptrend. But we should not be fooled as the strong rejection on the Daily candle shows that we are now approaching a downtrend.
This week I will be monitoring my lows and highs formed. So what defines a downtrend??
LHs and LLs OR LHs and Lows constitutes a downtrend.
The previous week ended with a 3H HL at 19037.1, but since price cannot buy from a low, it must signal a type of high on the 1H - 3H timeframe. As I mentioned, for a downtrend, we want to see a LH and not a HH signalled. This LH should be completed below the HH on Friday.
Based on the 1H Timeframe, this LH should be signalled at the support and resistance level which retest the 1H HL. Once price breaks structure we always want to see it retest the area which it broke structure before completing the trend move.
If the bears have truly gained there strength, there is a high probability that price will signal a Daily HL this week at 17654.0. This TP was determined based on the following reasons:
1. Completion of M pattern
2. Area between 61.8% - 78.6% fib retracement level using the Daily and 11H Timeframe.
Furthermore, if the bears have maintained their strength, new historical highs should not be created on Friday. Instead, a LH should be formed on my biggest timeframe following the Daily HL. As I always say, price cannot continue to sell from a low so it must signal a high point. And for a downtrend, we want this high point to be a LH that is below last week's all time highs. if that's the case. We can expect a weekly HL for next week.
Summary of Trade Plan:
1. I will not be taking any sells until a LH has been formed on the hourly timeframe anywhere around 18181.2.
2. After which I will be holding the sell until a Daily HL is signalled between Tuesday - Wednesday at 17654.0.
3. Once a Daily HL is signalled, I will exit and look for buys on Wednesday to signal a LH on my biggest timeframe on Friday.