I am not a firm believer on inflation being transitory, and am pretty sure we are in the very last innings of a long term rally in equities that started from the 2009 lows. The yearly #SPX chart suggests this tops this year, which could be at any point of the year, and logically not later than EOY. The big question is when will the Fed hike interest rates, and what will happen with their bond purchase program. Stimulus is likely to increase, judging by the current turn of events and the administration at the helm.
It's probably wise to be a bull in bonds, precious metals and equities for the time being, but I would be careful once we reach the end of the year. Mid term signal here indicates a rapid and steady rally in equities until late August, before the next consolidation period starts in the weekly timeframe. I focus on where will the rotations of big money will take place, and also monitor fundamental and technical developments across sectors and different stocks to figure out what names to hold in my portfolio.
It's still highly interesting to analyze the action in $QQQ and $SPY overall.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
It's probably wise to be a bull in bonds, precious metals and equities for the time being, but I would be careful once we reach the end of the year. Mid term signal here indicates a rapid and steady rally in equities until late August, before the next consolidation period starts in the weekly timeframe. I focus on where will the rotations of big money will take place, and also monitor fundamental and technical developments across sectors and different stocks to figure out what names to hold in my portfolio.
It's still highly interesting to analyze the action in $QQQ and $SPY overall.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
Sidenote: $EEM failed to break down and now triggered a weekly trend, probably connected to the rally in oil. I guess we have plenty more upside to come until well into September easily.
I'm not particularly fond of tech stocks, but risk on might go for longer indeed. I was concerned of the down trend potential $EEM had two weeks ago.
Comment:
Seems like reflation trend until August easily here.
Comment:
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed: target reached:
Wait for another weekly consolidation or correction...
Trade active:
I actually bought back this week, we had a nice dip after hiting the target:
Trade closed manually:
Target hit, time expired, daily now flashing a down trend, we might get a correction or consolidation for many weeks again, either hedge, sell calls, or just go to cash.
Target hit, time expired, daily now flashing a down trend, we might get a correction or consolidation for many weeks again, either hedge, sell calls, or just go to cash.
Trade active:
Down trend signal worked, reentered longs lower. New uptrend signal now:
I did point out the weakness would lead to lower lows, it did happen for a couple more days going into options expiration.
