A H&S followed by a rally... I know how trusted Head and Shoulders is around the world, but I've never really been good with it -- I get the inverted and etc mixed up, every single time and I google images for one that matches the current situation and read through tutorials on whether it is bullish or bearish. We've hit some resistance, heading into the second half of the week. If this pattern isn't possible, then the obvious alternative is simply that it breaks through and goes another leg higher, but if this H&S pattern is possible, then its really 50/50 where we go from here. A pause, a retest, and then a new leg up. And then another retest as Q3 2022 begins and a race to the top begins (between the economy and the Fed)
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Personally prefer Fib and line trends
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And making sure it stays consistent through a spectrum of methods
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and just for fun, though technically outdated
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Current levels and outlook
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Using trend channel, whether you want to believe we're on the top of the channel or we'll just keep hugging the top
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Using this data, I predicted this bump and exited my puts near $414. I theorize that though we're bearish, not many were positioned for such and therefore we have to go a bit higher before falling. I currently see a dip for the 11th but will wait for tomorrow for a better entry point (either price wise or just more certainty)
regardless of anything else, this is a rejection of trend play, which is lucrative but not as certain as a continuation of trend play. And all in all, I still remain bullish towards the end of the year but more bearish as we come to the final months.
regardless of anything else, this is a rejection of trend play, which is lucrative but not as certain as a continuation of trend play. And all in all, I still remain bullish towards the end of the year but more bearish as we come to the final months.
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EDIT: I don't mean to sound boastful so I'll clarify: The price went above the price band in my original above post, so when the price dipped and QQQ performance relative to SPY flipped I knew it wasn't sustainable and that it would bounce off the top of that band. So I exited my puts with a $44 loss and continue to monitor the situation. My working theory has it going under $410 Thursday morning but that requires lots of verification before I can call it for sure.
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Chart weirdness that only shows up in the < 1 hr timeframe
Chart weirdness that only shows up in the < 1 hr timeframe
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gut punch as market cannot revive back above the support line. Maybe nvdia? starting setup for short, but as the market remains very confused (volume shows no conviction) I'm not all in yet. Dip my toe is more like it.
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*bullish but staying on the sidelines*
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.