A bad week for the bears as the inflation number has receded so much, the bulls anticipate a Fed pivot. We know that it will take a lot more than this paltry number for the Fed to change direction.
A real spanner was thrown admittedly, our down trend line was breached for the first time in this bear market, such a powerful rally was not expected...a mix of buying and short covering.
So where are we and where is this going?
Our own mantra has been to sell the rally, but losses are now being encountered which is uncomfortable. The economic situation cannot improve with rates rising and inflation at such a high reading, never before has inflation been tamed when the rates are lower than inflation.
More data to validate the inflation reduction would sends stocks higher, prices are not dropping and supply is not increasing yet and so this counters any ideas that peak inflation has occurred.
As we have said before, all markets are now running on interest rate data, perversely, a worse economy is good for the market...it is sad to see this addiction to cheap debt which will create a bigger problem down the track.
We don't see the Fed pivot, this weeks market raid by the bulls could well turn out a false break.
The disgraceful trillions that the Fed has thrown away the past two years has morphed the liabilities through the roof, they seriously cannot raise rates too much as this implicates their repayment burden.
Looking for 34,000 to be touched early this week and thereabouts some oscillating moves and a top. Note the doji cross candle from Friday....this is the last throw of the dice, any serious rally from here would negate our bearish stance.
Precious metals look to have bottomed. This is perplexing in why they have rallied well before Thursday's inflation gimmick. Crypto's have been hammered...is there rotation out of these hyped products into a real and tangible asset?
PM's are unlikely to continue the rally if the markets resume the bear trend, although a possible situation can be some fearful event or news that craters the Dow and sends PM's upwards.
2008 saw an exodus out of PM's as liquidity issues spread quickly...they reasserted themselves as investors sought safety.
Gold and silver have been the rock for 5000 years as every other fiat has dissolved...this coming calamity will see a stampede that propels prices skywards.
Technical analysis tells us that this is a bear market rally, we go on the probability of an over bought market goosed. The Santa rally is expected, too many bulls now who believe the worst is over, waiting for the Fed pivot.
A dishonest, lying government and media have pulled one over the masses the past 30 months...always seek the truth.
In summary: call their bluff and flog this rally.
Appreciate a thumbs up...Good Trading & God Bless!
A real spanner was thrown admittedly, our down trend line was breached for the first time in this bear market, such a powerful rally was not expected...a mix of buying and short covering.
So where are we and where is this going?
Our own mantra has been to sell the rally, but losses are now being encountered which is uncomfortable. The economic situation cannot improve with rates rising and inflation at such a high reading, never before has inflation been tamed when the rates are lower than inflation.
More data to validate the inflation reduction would sends stocks higher, prices are not dropping and supply is not increasing yet and so this counters any ideas that peak inflation has occurred.
As we have said before, all markets are now running on interest rate data, perversely, a worse economy is good for the market...it is sad to see this addiction to cheap debt which will create a bigger problem down the track.
We don't see the Fed pivot, this weeks market raid by the bulls could well turn out a false break.
The disgraceful trillions that the Fed has thrown away the past two years has morphed the liabilities through the roof, they seriously cannot raise rates too much as this implicates their repayment burden.
Looking for 34,000 to be touched early this week and thereabouts some oscillating moves and a top. Note the doji cross candle from Friday....this is the last throw of the dice, any serious rally from here would negate our bearish stance.
Precious metals look to have bottomed. This is perplexing in why they have rallied well before Thursday's inflation gimmick. Crypto's have been hammered...is there rotation out of these hyped products into a real and tangible asset?
PM's are unlikely to continue the rally if the markets resume the bear trend, although a possible situation can be some fearful event or news that craters the Dow and sends PM's upwards.
2008 saw an exodus out of PM's as liquidity issues spread quickly...they reasserted themselves as investors sought safety.
Gold and silver have been the rock for 5000 years as every other fiat has dissolved...this coming calamity will see a stampede that propels prices skywards.
Technical analysis tells us that this is a bear market rally, we go on the probability of an over bought market goosed. The Santa rally is expected, too many bulls now who believe the worst is over, waiting for the Fed pivot.
A dishonest, lying government and media have pulled one over the masses the past 30 months...always seek the truth.
In summary: call their bluff and flog this rally.
Appreciate a thumbs up...Good Trading & God Bless!
Watch the upward trend line for the break imminently.
A major inflection point and turn down.