BNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts
Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar
A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen.
It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.”
The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed.
BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates.
According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.”
BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world
It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling.
Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground.
Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows
BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen.
Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions.
It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency.
The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar
A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen.
It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.”
The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed.
BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates.
According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.”
BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world
It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling.
Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground.
Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows
BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen.
Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions.
It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency.
The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.