goldenBear88

Gold delivered abnormal gains once again

Short
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Technical analysis: My #2,152.80 pivot point held as Gold remains under heavy Buying towards #2,220.80 Resistance, way above record High's fractal upon Fed release and didn't rebounded immediately to close the Daily chart’s candle back inside Bullish Flag. This maintains overall Bullish trend with outside forces (difficult to find viable explanation) keeping Bullish bias alive. This is not good time to Bear on the market and to maintain Bearish perspective where Technical rules do not apply on such sessions. On the Medium-term the Fed's hike structure and market sentiment in general should be Bearish for Gold (my Medium-term Target is intact and is seen Trading near #2,000.80 Higher Low’s extension, and Long-term below #1,700.80 benchmark) but since I didn’t position myself already (my yesterday's order triggered my #12-point Stop-loss), best option at the moment is to await for the Price-action to break below the Daily chart’s #2,195.80 - #2,200.80 to confirm the Selling breakout as the DX is constantly Trading on gains. This is because I believe Gold is more closely tied to the DX lately and should Trade on the opposite direction once it moves. From Technical perspective as well, Gold remains severely Bearish.


Fundamental analysis / My position: Even though Rate remained unchanged, Gold delivered #14-point spike to the upside before the news (#2,165.80 test) to trigger Stop's for Sellers, got rejected towards #2,155.80 again and then on Rate numbers unchanged, another #20-point uptrend. Last #9 out of #9 times Fed kept the Rate unchanged, Gold was Trading from small to #15-point + decline. However this time, Gold was manually lifted and with slightly dovish stance from Powell (nothing serious) another (# +3.00%) abnormal rise even though Inflation is once again rising uncontrollably (Price-action should lose strongly in current far from Gold-friendly environment). Regardless, this is ideal re-Sell entry however as it was the case lately, I wouldn't be surprised if Gold closes today above #2,220.80 Resistance for the fractal. I will stay aside for the session preserving my capital from such violent Volatility.

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