MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - WEEK 20 - 2024 [May 6 - May 10]
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - WEEK 20 - 2024
This week, international gold prices fell quite sharply from 2,346 USD/oz to 2,277 USD/oz and closed at 2,301 USD/oz.
International gold prices continued to decline this week because the FED kept interest rates at the current level and warned that they were not ready to cut interest rates to curb inflation.
US jobs data released this weekend showed that the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly lower than expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%.
Thus, the FED is facing a difficult dual task, which is to control inflation, but must find ways to stimulate to stabilize the labor market. This is a task that the Fed can hardly solve satisfactorily, because if it continues to keep interest rates at a high level for a long time, it will push businesses into a more difficult position, forcing them to narrow production activities and cut back. labor. However, if the FED rushes to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, inflation is at risk of skyrocketing.
According to forecasts, it is likely that the FED will cut interest rates in November 2024 after the US Presidential election. If that's true, the FED will only cut interest rates once this year, instead of 6 times as expected in early 2024.
Although the number of interest rate cuts by the FED may decrease significantly this year, gold prices still have many other supporting factors.
First, central banks around the world are continuing to buy gold to diversify national foreign exchange reserves in the context of the world's geo-economic and geopolitical instability, especially the huge amount of debt. American giants always pose risks to the USD.
Second, not only the Chinese central bank, but also the Chinese people have also stepped up buying gold in the context of economic stagnation.
Third, gold's role as a haven is still highly appreciated in the context of geopolitical tensions in many regions that are still very complicated.
Especially next week, US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions will continue to take place. These auctions have been disappointing as participation has dropped significantly. And next week's US government bond auctions will likely have similar results. If this situation continues for a long time, there will be great potential risks for the USD, positively supporting gold prices in the long term.
Technically, although gold prices are holding support around 2,300 USD/oz, there is also a potential risk of falling to 2,220 in the short term.
On the H4 time frame ptkt chart, the price is moving in the downtrend channel. If the 2280 support area is broken, it is likely that the gold price will fall around the 2223 mark. To see short-term upward momentum, you need to see Gold price broke out of the 2350 resistance level.
The trading plan for next week will initially consider buying if the price drops to 2223, selling if the price rebounds and touches the upper edge of the trend channel around 2340, all accepting a stop loss of 5 prices for each strategy. .
This week, international gold prices fell quite sharply from 2,346 USD/oz to 2,277 USD/oz and closed at 2,301 USD/oz.
International gold prices continued to decline this week because the FED kept interest rates at the current level and warned that they were not ready to cut interest rates to curb inflation.
US jobs data released this weekend showed that the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly lower than expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%.
Thus, the FED is facing a difficult dual task, which is to control inflation, but must find ways to stimulate to stabilize the labor market. This is a task that the Fed can hardly solve satisfactorily, because if it continues to keep interest rates at a high level for a long time, it will push businesses into a more difficult position, forcing them to narrow production activities and cut back. labor. However, if the FED rushes to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, inflation is at risk of skyrocketing.
According to forecasts, it is likely that the FED will cut interest rates in November 2024 after the US Presidential election. If that's true, the FED will only cut interest rates once this year, instead of 6 times as expected in early 2024.
Although the number of interest rate cuts by the FED may decrease significantly this year, gold prices still have many other supporting factors.
First, central banks around the world are continuing to buy gold to diversify national foreign exchange reserves in the context of the world's geo-economic and geopolitical instability, especially the huge amount of debt. American giants always pose risks to the USD.
Second, not only the Chinese central bank, but also the Chinese people have also stepped up buying gold in the context of economic stagnation.
Third, gold's role as a haven is still highly appreciated in the context of geopolitical tensions in many regions that are still very complicated.
Especially next week, US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions will continue to take place. These auctions have been disappointing as participation has dropped significantly. And next week's US government bond auctions will likely have similar results. If this situation continues for a long time, there will be great potential risks for the USD, positively supporting gold prices in the long term.
Technically, although gold prices are holding support around 2,300 USD/oz, there is also a potential risk of falling to 2,220 in the short term.
On the H4 time frame ptkt chart, the price is moving in the downtrend channel. If the 2280 support area is broken, it is likely that the gold price will fall around the 2223 mark. To see short-term upward momentum, you need to see Gold price broke out of the 2350 resistance level.
The trading plan for next week will initially consider buying if the price drops to 2223, selling if the price rebounds and touches the upper edge of the trend channel around 2340, all accepting a stop loss of 5 prices for each strategy. .
Comment:
🔔Trading plan for May 07
📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2345 - 2347. STOPLOSS 2351
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2304 - 2306. STOPLOSS 2300
➡️Resistance : 2332 - 2345 - 2352 - 2362
➡️Support : 2321 - 2315 - 2305- 2295- 2284
Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals
📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2345 - 2347. STOPLOSS 2351
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2304 - 2306. STOPLOSS 2300
➡️Resistance : 2332 - 2345 - 2352 - 2362
➡️Support : 2321 - 2315 - 2305- 2295- 2284
Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals
Trade active:
🔔Trading plan for May 08
📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2345 - 2347. STOPLOSS 2351
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2293 - 2291. STOPLOSS 2288
➡️Resistance : 2328 - 2345 - 2352 - 2362
➡️Support : 2305 - 2300 - 2295 - 2290
Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals
Note: Full TP and SL to be safe and win the market‼️ Your money, please protect it with me❤️❤️
📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2345 - 2347. STOPLOSS 2351
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2293 - 2291. STOPLOSS 2288
➡️Resistance : 2328 - 2345 - 2352 - 2362
➡️Support : 2305 - 2300 - 2295 - 2290
Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals
Note: Full TP and SL to be safe and win the market‼️ Your money, please protect it with me❤️❤️
🔔Trading plan for May 03
📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2338 - 2336. STOPLOSS 2342
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2304 - 2302. STOPLOSS 2298
➡️Resistance : 2315 - 2321 - 2325 - 2335 - 2340 - 2346
➡️Support : 2305- 2295- 2284 - 2277 - 2259 - 2240
Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals
Note: Full TP and SL to be safe and win the market‼️ Your money, please protect it with me❤️❤️