Bearflag and Bearish pennantA Bear Flag is a price action within the context of a downtrend that produces an orderly price increase consisting of a narrow trend range comprised of higher swing/pivot highs and higher swing/pivot lows.
The success of a Bear Flag can be greater after a significant downside move due to the possible increase of overhead resistance.
Bear Flags can be stronger when the swing low that begins the pattern is also an all time low due to the possible lack of underlying support.
Target of bearflag is the lenght of flagpole and you need to measure this lenght for breakdown target from support line of Flag(wait till this support line will be broke and after you can entry)
Bearish pennant:
The initial sell-off into the pennant can be steep or gradual.
The Pennant represents a pause to consolidate, retracing a small part of the initial sell-off within a tight channel. A break-down from this channel is the first hint that a bearish pennant could be in the making.
Once the shares break down from the pennant, it is possible that another sell-off – the same size as the first
Target of bearpennant is the same like in bearflag,measure lenght of flagpole and this lenght from pennant support line will be the target
Stocks!
Double bottom and Double topThe Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts, and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.
It is important to remember that the Double Bottom Reversal is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer than tops to form and patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues
Double top is a chart pattern, characterized by two consecutive peaks in price, that signals a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend.
The double top chart pattern is considered to be an indicator of an intermediate- or long-term reversal in price. After two attempts by bulls to push the price above key resistance levels, many bulls may capitulate and bears often take control over the market price.
Weekend special (Educational)Includes,
2, 6 rule
Iron triangle of risk control (How many shares to trade?)
The concept of risk control (Where to stop?)
In the markets it hardly matters how good your trading system is..
What matters is if you can count or not.
Confused? Even i was for many years before understanding the importance of Risk management in trading. There is one missing element in your trading and realizing it alone does not help, trusting and welcoming it does. Here is a small article inspired from one of the best books on Psychology and risk management.
Continue reading: tradersworld.co.in
Bull Flag and Bullish PennantFlags and pennants are continuation patterns. They are traded in the same way, but each has a slightly different shape. The terms flag and pennant are often used interchangeably.
A flag or pennant pattern forms when the price rallies sharply, then moves sideways or slightly to the downside. This sideways movement typically takes the form or a rectangle (flag) or a small triangle ( pennant ), hence their names. Draw trendlines along the highs and lows of the sideways price action. The sharp price rise preceding the flag or pennant is called the flag pole.
The sideways period is often followed by another sharp rise. This is where the trading opportunity comes in. Once the flag pole and a flag or pennant have formed, traders watch for the price to breakout above the upper flag/pennant trendline . When this occurs, enter a long trade.
Target 1: Size of the Flag
The first target of a confirmed Flag pattern can be derived using the measured move technique. The measured move target is a distance equal to the size of the flag. To measure the size of the flag, you would just take the vertical distance between the upper and the lower channel within the flag.
Then you would apply this distance starting from the breakout point. Your first target is located at the end of this distance.
Target 2: Size of the Pole
The next target of the Flag formation equals the size of the Flag Pole. So, to get this target 2, you need to measure the vertical distance between the high and the low of the Pole. Once you get that distance, you will need to apply it to the pattern. Again, as we did with Target 1, you would apply it starting from the breakout point.
Even though flags and pennants are common formations, identification guidelines should not be taken lightly. It is important that flags and pennants are preceded by a sharp advance or decline. Without a sharp move, the reliability of the formation becomes questionable and trading could carry added risk. Look for volume confirmation on the initial move, consolidation, and resumption to augment the robustness of pattern identification.
The fear in their eyesThe VIX is known as the 'fear index'. It has taken a pulse north which is not unexpected, as volatility on the P SPX500 took a leap recently.
The VIX is not an index I trade, nor do I know anyone who trades it. Its value is in keeping a finger on the 'pulse' of the stock market.
When the VIX begins to pulse, expect trouble. Some see trouble only after it has happened.
Stock buyback failures could herald a crashThe SPBUYUP index has not been shown in a published idea on Tradingview before now (I checked). It is the index which tells how much companies are buying back their own stock to keep the S&P500 afloat.
So if this fails, market 'manipulations' of the S&P500 could fail. Of course, this not the only thing that influences the S&P500 but it is a significant marker of influence or lack of it.
JD: Earnings Stock of the Day JD.com has been in a downtrend since it topped early this year. This weekly chart shows why it is no longer an ideal sell short. The stock has declined steadily, losing more than 50% of its price value and JD is now at a support level that is strong, where buyers are likely to start moving in. At this time, a sideways pattern is likely, or a bounce up today if earnings are showing growth and stronger revenues.
How to use my Indicator/MethodBuy Green
Sell Red
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it's mainly for swing trading, i use the 3 day / 15 day / monthly charts with it and it works perfectly,
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it works good for stocks and cryptocurrency.
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you will use heiken ashi chart style and turn on the EMA DOTS indicator.
once the indicator is on you will hide the heiken ashi so you only see the dots.
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when a green dot appears you buy, if a green dot appears after that green dot you hold your investment.
if a red dot appears you sell your position. easy as that.
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the standard dots setting will be set to 10 - use this for any chart above 3 days
change the dots setting to 6 for 3day charts and below
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shorter time frames will be choppy.
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larger time frames will be smooth.
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*Daytrading smaller timeframes is possible but not recommended.
Is the S&P500 at the end of a 100+ year CYCLE?The S&P500 market has started the end of a 100+ year 5 wave cycle, if this is correct we are now at almost the top of a 5 wave cycle which can end in the very near future. If this is true we are at the start of one of the biggest, if not the biggest market crash in the history of the S&P500. A correction of 5 wave cycle is usually 61.8% of the entire 5 waves, if this is correct we could see S&P500 prices of $1,100 levels. We are talking about $20 trillion wiped out. We could be going into a DEPRESSION!!!!
Slow and Steady WINS the race.Buy Green
Sell Red
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it's mainly for swing trading, i use the 3 day / 15 day / monthly charts with it and it works perfectly,
//
it works good for stocks and cryptocurrency.
//
you will use heiken ashi chart style and turn on the EMA DOTS indicator.
once the indicator is on you will hide the heiken ashi so you only see the dots.
//
when a green dot 0.35% -0.78% -0.78% -6.68% -7.44% -7.44% appears you buy, if a green dot 0.35% -0.78% -0.78% -6.68% -7.44% -7.44% appears after that green dot 0.35% -0.78% -0.78% -6.68% -7.44% -7.44% you hold your investment.
if a red dot appears you sell your position. easy as that.
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the standard dots setting will be set to 10 - use this for any chart above 3 days
change the dots setting to 6 for 3day charts and below
//
shorter time frames will be choppy.
//
larger time frames will be smooth.
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*Daytrading smaller timeframes is possible but not recommended.
Trading Psychology- Master your Mind and Money BY BEN WRIGHTSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Trading Psychology- Master your Mind and Money
Are you continually loosing money and not knowing why? For the past decade of trading the financial markets, I believe psychology is so vital to trading success. Below is a small snippet of questions that you need to ask yourself prior to entering the market so that you are in the best condition to compete;
1. Have I slept well?
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2. Do i feel emotionally and physically fit?
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3. Am i following other people's opinions?
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4. Am i following my head or my heart?
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5. Have i received losses lately? Should i be entering the market? If so do i have a drawdown procedure in place?
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6. Have I had a series of winning trades? If so monitor your behaviour and ensure your ego doesn't cripple your performance
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7. And many more...............
Let me know if you have any questions or would like to know more :)
Happy trading
"Rule number 1: never loose money. Rule 2: Never forget rule number 1." Warren Buffet
Money Management 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Money Management 101
Are you receiving a win-rate of more then 60% and still loosing money?? Money Management may be an area that you need to focus on. It is an essential element in becoming a professional trader. Listed below are 4 Simple Steps To Evaluate Your Financial Health;
1. Position Sizing
A portfolio of $... and I decide to only risk 2% on a trading strategy
2. Capital - How much?
A portfolio of $....
3. Loss - How much?
I must be right more then 50% of the time, but win more money on winning trades versus losing trades. I will use stops and limits to enforce a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher
4. Profits - What?
A profit/loss ratio refers to the size of the average profit compares to the size of the average loss per trade. For example, if your expected profit is $1500 and your expected loss is $500, the P/L ratio is 3:1
Please let me know if you have any questions :) Happy Trading
"The simpler it is, the better i like it" Peter Lynch
The best Van Tharp's Quote!! Read all his books!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Van Tharp “When you understand what’s involved in winning, as do professional gamblers, you’ll tend to bet more during a winning streak and less during a losing streak. However, the average person does exactly the opposite: he or she bets more after a series of losses and less after a series of wins.”
Over the 18 years of trading the Futures/ Stocks and Currencies market, Van Tharp's books have help me immensely.
I suggest you read his books. Some of them are listed below;
Trade your way to financial freedom
Super Trader
Trading Beyond the Matrix
Safe Strategies for financial markets
Financial freedom through electronic day trading
I have a large collection of trading books. If anyone needs suggestions on great trading books i would be happy to send you a list :)
Definitions: Every type of decline in priceUnderstanding the definitions. Here they are, well this is my own definition, but look into any book it will be quite similar.
I will post examples to show why that makes sense.
First, this applies to anything that has enough participants, and enough market cap. I do not have an exact number, but if something is not public or next to impossible to trade kind of "secret" or "underground" and has a market cap of 25 million, rules do not apply. If something is a NYZE listed company with a market cap of 500 million it applies. Applies to gold, does not apply to granular piss (actually maybe it does as people are really buying this stuff and using it well idk but let's just focus on anything that has lets say a mcap of at least 500 million, the definition could be pushed to anything over 2 billion to be "safe").
The time span for declines is 1 to 2 quarters.
The definition will be different for FX, numbers are smaller, and for crypto, numbers are bigger like 25% for Bitcoin is just a correction.
Here are the different categories - truer definitions would use percent drops compared to average market volatility:
Correction: 10% decline
Bear market: 20% decline
Crash: 35-60% decline
MegaCrash: 60%-80% decline (less than once in a lifetime)
Death: 80% decline
Ponzi: 90% decline
Here is the example of a correction:
Here are examples of a bear market:
Here are examples of market crashes:
Here is a mega crash:
Here is a death:
Here are a few examples of ponzis :):
1- Every single stock Jordan Belfort has ever participated in.
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9-
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12- Well any stock or crypto you find in a "hot stock" list that is "very cheap" and "a great buy"
Dow Jones (Wall Street) - crash is an irrelevant issue.I explain in the screencast why I think 'crash' is an irrelevant issue.
It is impossible to know whether 'we're in a crash' because a crash can only be discovered well into into it or after it has happened.
True trend-followers will appreciate that all one can do is find a suitable trend - and follow it. Simple but I didn't say it was easy. In fact I will assert that true trend followers really don't care whether there will be a crash or the next market melt up.
What people (in general) want, is to be able to foretell the future. Sorry, they can't - and no guru has such powers. We might prepare for the future in various ways. This is not ordinary life. It's not everyday activities like trying to find the safest point in time to cross a road. The reality is that markets are wild random things - pure chaos of a different order - where the 'normal rules' we may apply in everyday life just fail miserably. As I've said in other posts, a whole new mindset is needed to manage this very different sort of chaos.
With 76 to -90% of real trader accounts consistently losing money (hard data), the battle is not with the charts or the markets. The battle is with yourself and your psychology.
Correlation continuesBitcoin and the stock market continues to correlate as news this morning started to cause markets to sell-off, which has resulted so far in a drop in Bitcoin shortly after.
We have to continue to keep an eye on this because they have been following each other closely.
Thanks guys
Explained - How To Lose Money In Stock Trading?! Following simple personality streaks will easily help you lighten your pockets or bank balance or e-wallets ( for tech savvy ;) ) trading stocks, Forex, commodities etc etc.
1.) If you are a good person, open hearted, who doesn't know how the worldly affairs are being dictated by rich, powerful and smart people then probability is higher that you are taking most of the information at face value. So here not being cynical will help you go broke :)
2.) Being egoistic? Well my friend, you are just about to be humbled very soon !
3.) People who are smart, logical and very educated in conventional way. By educated in conventional way I mean, brandishing a coveted degree from some coveted institution or simply a very successful professional having very sharp logical brain. Sorry to give the bad news but unfortunately market is not logical :( . Ohh you didn't like that even if being smarter than 99% of population you are still destined to lose money in market ! Sorry again but what can we do ! It is what it is. Of course you are free to try your sharp logic ( which has helped you gain fame and money in your profession ) to predict the market moves and experience the burns yourself !
Then you might be asking, how the F*** you are making money trading? Well, simply put, I'm just feeling lucky ! ;)
The importance of trading sessions and volatility (educational)Forex trading sessions are important as are stock market trading sessions. I'm sharing some of my knowledge and experience, mainly for new traders. See forex sessions by timezone (this does not promote any service or broker).
The sessions are important because various groups of traders have their own preferences for particular currencies in respective time zones. At the opening of a session there can be increased volatility - sometimes leading to gaps up or gaps down. This can be catastrophic for traders with small accounts and tight stop-losses.
Those trading on live accounts may wish to use guaranteed stop-losses, if their brokers provide that - as some form of defence. A standard stop-loss near the start and end of sessions, is likely to suffer badly due to what is known as slippage i.e. price does not close where the stop-loss is set. So a trader can lose far more than they expected because of the gap up or down. An alternative some for some traders is to close trades (if favourable). just before the close of a session. But many brokers increase spreads about 30 minutes or so near the start of end of a session.
What happens in stock markets may affect forex markets. It is a two-way dynamic relationship.
For example, there is an inverse relationship between US Dollar and Wall Street, similar between EURO and the DAX (GER30), and again similar between the Yen and the Japan225. Stock markets favour weak currencies (generally), in respective countries.
It is therefore important to find out the times of trading sessions for stock markets. For UK traders (from my experience) peak volatility on Wall Street is usually around 07:00AM, 09:00AM, 14:30PM, 18:00PM and 22:00PM (+/- one hour depending on daylight saving time). Around 01:00AM the Japanese stock markets come alive with many surprises. What that means is that one can expect volatility on the forex markets too around those times. This does not mean that volatility is to be avoided i.e. it just needs to be risk-managed.
The information above is shared experience and may not be 100% accurate. Traders on live accounts need to check trading session times for greater accuracy.
Trading sessions add another layer of complexity to risk management. Profitability in the long term may depend on attention to the details.
Bitcoin and S&P500 correlated more than people think! For the longest time, most people always correlated Bitcoin price to Gold price but there was a small subset of people that argued the equity market was the true correlation. As shown in the comparison chart above, we saw that the equities market began selling a few days before the cryptocurrency market given that cryptos are already down over 80-90% but this is more an analysis over global selling.
We can see that October 9th was the day stock broke the triangle and began selling heavily while Bitcoin continued to range for a few days before taking the plunge. After the DOW fell over 800 points yesterday, the crypto market was hesitant to follow suit and waited until the end of the day and into the night before selling off heavily. Some exchanges even saw price break below $6000 as volume picked up massively and volatility re-entered the market. We also got news last night that the Shanghai Composite hit new lows not seen in 4-years last night when that part of the world woke up and saw the carnage of the New York session.
Some rumors were swirling around that the Japanese were selling their crypto to cover the massive losses they were incurring on their equity portfolios, which caused the huge cascading sells in Bitcoin and rippled across the market. Some might say that a bounce in stocks might cause a bounce back in Bitcoin so keeping an eye on this correlation could be profitable if we are in fact correlated.
Thanks guys
What rules the world?The NASDAQ tech 100 index probably rules most of the world. How?
It heavily influences stock markets around the globe. The JP225USD is pretty sensitive to what happens on NDX and the US30 aka Wall Street. A fall in the tech 100, usually sees a rise in the strength of the Yen, which then has knock on effects on other currencies.
What's on the chart?
1. Signs of a weakening daily trend (red dots) curving to a possible plateau (almost a double top) and falling off.
2. The VMA has been punctured, which is not a good sign.
3. Switch on the Vervoort.
4. Two areas of tight squeeze on the Squeeze Momentum indicator (just below the RSI) - and weakening rebellions (height of green histogram).
5. RSI has fallen below 50 - not a good sign (price less likely to move north).
6. A high cross on of AroonUp over AroonDown - suggesting the bears are more likely to have time in the market (time momentum) - if they continue to dominate for the next 7 days.
In essence the combination of the above indicators cohere to point to more down side. How far? I have no crystal ball.
To be clear, every probability in one direction sits with a probability for the other direction.
In the last two weeks, I've seen Ethereum correlate inversely on smaller time frames, with the strength of the Yen.
So, I'm stalking this index for what else might happen on other stock indices and anything Yen.
FACTORS NEEDED FOR ONE TO BE A PROFITABLE TRADERYou WILL NOT be a successful Forex Trader until….
You are able to Master the 3 M’s of Forex Trading….
Point Blank…..That’s the Truth of it…
No If’s, And’s or But’s…..
But before you MASTER it….You gotta Know what it is.. Right?
You’re gonna want to write this down... so make sure you got your notebook handy…
So here goes….
The Three M’s of Forex Trading.
…...The First M stands for METHOD….
…...The Second M stands for MIND…..
……The Third M stands for MONEY MANAGEMENT…
That’s right….This is the 3 Pronged Key to Success in Forex...
Method, Mind, and Money Management….
You have to Master all three to be successful at trading….
It’s ABSOLUTELY true, if you stop to think about it….
……..You can have the Best Trading Method, but if your Mindset and Money Management are OFF, you WILL NOT succeed as a Forex Trader.
……..You can have the Best Psychological Makeup and Mindset, but if your Trading Method and Money Management are OFF, you WILL NOT succeed as a Forex Trader.
……..You can be a PHD in Mathematics and Finance and have the best Money Management skills, but if your Trading Method and Mindset are OFF, you WILL NOT succeed as a Forex Trader.
Enough Said….
I notice most traders working on Method more than any other part of this 3 pronged equation….
Which is FINE….but to their own determinant most times…..cuz if and when they finally do master the Method part….they still cannot seem to understand why they are not profitable….
Many times….it takes these traders years to realize the importance of the other two missing ingredients….
So start thinking about this... and try to incorporate this 3 dimensional outlook when approaching your trading…..
Listen…..You’re not going to MASTER this overnight….
But the Good News is….Knowing is Half the Battle….So you're Half way there now…
Risk on/Risk off, XLY:XLP ratios, THE Real money flow indicator.Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc
So what does it all mean??
The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing.
The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example. Its not a hypothetical as it uses real money data based on what investors are DOING and NOT what they maybe thinking or projecting...
XLY represents the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF.
XLP represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF.
XLY is the ETF which tracks the consumer
discretionary sector XLY’s top 5 holdings are...
Comcast (CMCSK),
Walt Disney (DIS),
Amazon.com (AMZN),
Home Depot (HD),
McDonald’s (MCD).
XLP tracks the consumer staples sector, with
top holdings of...
Procter & Gamble (PG),
Coca-Cola (KO),
Philip Morris (PM),
Wal-Mart (WMT),
CVS Caremark (CVS).
So how does this affect markets?
When the chart value rises its a clear indicator that people are happy to spend freely and without caution, investors will look to increase risk, where as if the value starts to go down and decline, people are spending more on everyday essential items and thus stock markets are in shrinkage, decline and investors are taking LESS risk.
we can clearly see how this chart reflects current highs on the stock indices if we compare to the current S&P500, Russel, Dow Jones and so on
If this article has helped or you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments below.....