Nasdaq IXIC - Finding the 9 year cycleMarkets are more predictable than we have been led to believe. Here we are going to examine the 9 year cycles found in the Nasdaq composite.
This is a follow-up idea from my previous idea which was Lesson one in Market Cycles in the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. Please follow that link for a more detailed explanation on this.
In the Nasdaq we can see an (approx) 9 year half cycle which is very consistent. It actually is closer to approx 9 year 3 months. But you should know that the time between each line is EXACTLY the same. In the method I use, I use the fib time zone tool to create lines which all have the EXACT amount of time between each line.
As I said in my previous idea, there are multiple cycles on different time frames and different frequencies all occurring simultaneously. If we only focus on one particular cycle, we will not have enough information to know how to trade. But when we calculate the net effect of several cycles, we will have a much better idea and information for FUTURE predictions. Please read my previous idea for more info on that.
In addition to the 17 year Secular bull and Secular bear markets, we can see this 9 year (approx) cycle which also is present in DJIA.
The green line represents the LOW Point or trough of the cycle and the RED line represents the PEAK of the cycle. The GREEN ZONE starts at the GREEN LINE and goes to the RED LINE. The RED ZONE starts and the RED LINE and goes to the GREEN LINE. Remember that a GREEN ZONE will have stronger GROWTH - GREEN = GROWTH and RED = REST. But the 9 year cycle and 17 cycles are not the only cycles occurring. There are others. So the individual cycle will not explain all of the movements int he chart.
Can you see how near the end of the GREEN ZONE (before the red line) the growth gets stronger? And near the end of the RED ZONE, it gets weaker. Imagine this a cycle of fluctuating energy -- the green is a positive energy and the red is a negative energy. The energy is highest as we reach the end of the GREEN ZONE, and energy is lowest when we reach the end of the RED ZONE.
We will also explore other cycles and other charts soon. I will soon make a chart where I will show both the 17 year cycle and 9 year cycle on the SAME CHART. There you will see how when both cycles are GREEN the growth gets much stronger. Please STAY TUNED for more IDEAS.
I also will be analyzing BITCOIN using the same method. You may save my profile so you can see more ideas as I post them.
Please feel free to give your comments and click like if you like the idea.
Stocks!
Big trouble in 'Little China'In this video I review again some evidence that everybody can see with their own eyes. The US30 or the DJI is in trouble.
There are observable signs of a trend change in a parabolic picture from the Weekly right down to the 4H time frame.
The market is convulsing with hope and greed. But the geopolitical situation is very unstable at at this time, and a terribly overbought market as it is, is pretty fragile.
Have a look at some entertaining and informative videos from Francis Hunt which goes into greater detail.
DOW Jones - SKULL & BONES day crash to be real deal!
Dow Jones and US Indices in deep sell off more serious then most suspect
daily view on VIXJust a daily view on the VIX
It's for show how the VIX react.
AT that time the VIX is realitely low...historical low we can said.
Since 2015 we saw 4 shocks on market who came from BIG to LOW
1- the yuan devaluation,where we can remember was a good shock for stock,jpy and gold
2-the oil fail in start of 2016 where the stock make a good coorection also but get back up in the next week
3-The Brexit in June 2016 who was a surprise and impact the most the GBP and also again Stock and gold ( that is normal because is the vix of SP500)
4- The USS election in Nov 2016
But the VIX right now he still relatively low.
the VIX is used for see the volatility on market and also knows as " Fear Gauge" on market
maybe is the North korea topic That will make up again the VIX and may more than Yuan devaluation
I wanna say that is not bad for new trader to
-Focus on VIX everyday or sometime when you see market got a move without data
- try to stay far of Jpy ,Stock and gold until North korea topic is gone even you wanna buy gold or JPY or also sell stocks
-i not want to say is the time to short the stock even there are historical level+ the geopolical risk is high ,because is not the topic.
there was not an idea of trade,just to post it for may help new trader who not know about the VIX.
Support and Resistance DefinedThe Traders Decisions at S & R Areas:
This is a function of how we are wired as humans.
The decisions to buy or to sell are made by analyzing the current price against previous areas which cause an emotional response to traders.
They fear of missing out of on opportunity so they either buy or sell at these areas of support or resistance.
So the support area is basically summed up as the demand overcomes the supply limiting the price to go down any further.
Then resistance, is the area with the supply has been overcome with demand which limits an upward price movement.
That is were you see a ‘Barrier” form.
You will sometimes notice that a support/resistance area isn’t exacly a straight line which is why it is called an area. What happens is traders will make different decisions at different prices in this area.
Never assume these areas will hold, however, they should always be areas of interest and you should take note of it when you see them.
DXY vs S&P: they live together and decline togetherJust a small research I made. Haven´t applied any advanced methodics though, just a simple comparison.
1. DXY and S&P move together on bullish times which means there is a strong demand on US Dollar to make profit from raising american market. The profit is double: growth of the stocks index and a convertion back from the USD to your own currency which, by that time, should be substantially cheaper than the USD.
2. In times of bearish cycle for the USD, S&P also goes down or, at least, it doesn´t grow. It is surely explained by a moreless stable domestic demand but a huge reduction in foreign demand, that prefer parking money in Gold or Japanese Yen.
2.1. Defensive strategies are applied on stocks market in times of a decline. E.g. www.investopedia.com
3. In times of a switch between bullish and bearish cycle there was a period when the SP1 Index has already begun to decline but the USD still kept up and renewed peack values. Probably this time we will see a slightly different picture: USD sell-off will start before the stocks market decline as these who invested in stocks will start going back to their home currencies and cancel home loans on an unprecedent low interest rates. On another side, the USD "Safe heaven" period should almost match with the euphoria on the stocks market: we have already seen a 70 bln Dollars capital inbound once the new US President was elected and there should be more to come as money will move from Europe and, specially, from Asia. Therefore, the USD outflow would also start before a definitive decline on stocks indexes and complete a bearish movement after the market hits new long-time lows.