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Wave Analysis

An Educational Journey into Technical Analysis with Dogecoin/USDIn this tutorial, we'll dive deep into the art of technical analysis using the Dogecoin USD chart as our canvas. You'll discover how to blend Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave Theory, and the Wyckoff Method to forecast potential market movements. Whether you're new to trading or looking to refine your analytical skills, this guide will provide you with practical insights into identifying entry and exit points, understanding market phases, and preparing for future trends. Let's embark on this educational journey together to enhance your trading strategy toolkit. When in doubt, Zoom Out! Below I was looking at Arguments for a Significant Short Position Before the Continuation of the Bullish Trend and the Pursuit of New All-Time Highs Elliott Waves: From the bear market bottom at 4.5 cents, we started wave 1 and concluded with wave 5 at the current top. Following five waves, we expect an ABC correction. Waves A and B have been completed, and we are now in wave C. Fibonacci 1: Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension - From the all-time high (ATH) to the recent bear market bottom, then to the current 48-cent top. The 0.382 Fibonacci level suggests a target of 0.2130 for the upcoming drop, which I believe is necessary for liquidity ahead of the next upward movement. Fibonacci 2: Regular Fibonacci Retracement - From the bottom of wave 4 to the top of wave 5, the 0.618 level is at 0.235 cents. I've marked a green box between these two targets. See in the image below how Backtesting this strategy on the two previous cycles shows that before breaking ATHs, Dogecoin always hit this 0.382 Fib level! I use these 2 Fibonacci targets to place the green box between them and where I expect price to go in the newxt couple of weeks. Additional Observation: The green line below the 0.618 Fib retracement and above the 0.382 trend-based Fibonacci extension also marks a retest of the wave 3 high at 0.23 cents. Now that we've examined the macro perspective, let's Zoom In to the current action: Wyckoff Schematic: Check my previously published idea on Bitcoin, linked here, where Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. Dogecoin seems to follow with Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2. I've added vertical lines for phase separation, a red resistance box, and a green support box. Link to Richard D. Wyckoff, his Method and Story www.wyckoffanalytics.com . ABC Pattern: Wave A from top to bottom is exactly 0.222 cents or -45.81%, suggesting wave C should be of similar magnitude. Wave B measures 0.1724 cents and 65.65% to the upside. Using an arrow tool, the 0.222 cent drop points exactly to the 0.382 Fibonacci target from the trend-based extension we did in the macro analysis, now highlighted in yellow. Link to chart. Zooming in on the 4-hour Chart: I've drawn another Fibonacci retracement just for wave B, colored in turquoise blue. Notably, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension aligns with our macro 0.382 Fibonacci target, now colored yellow for clarity. Speculations for Future Moves: Fibonacci Circle and bottom timing prediction: Drawn from A to B, this circle in orange might help us predict when we hit the green box target at the bottom. Considering that the A drop measures exactly 12 days and 4Hours I have added another vertical line now marking a timeframe of 5 days from Thursday 30 January to Monday 3 February 2025 This is speculative but worth watching. It includes also a weekend so a CME gap before weekend plus filling the week after could also be in play. Wyckoff Phases: According to earlier discussions, we're moving through phases A to E. I've added a vertical line where the Fib circle crosses our 1.272 and 0.382 Fib levels, suggesting we'll enter phase E on January 23, 2025, potentially concluding by February 2, 2025. Predictive Arrows: Blue arrows indicate possible future price movements based on current patterns. After hitting our target, I'll analyze again and publish a new idea with plans for breaking the ATH and targets for the anticipated bull market. Enough for now, as it's getting late. Give me a follow, share if you liked this analysis, and stay tuned for updates.
BINANCE:DOGEUSDEducation
by Candle_Styx
13
HOW TO Document your RESEARCH using TradingViewDocumenting your research as a trader is not just beneficial—it's essential. After a decade in the trenches, I know that organized, thorough documentation can make the difference between a profitable strategy and a missed opportunity. TradingView is not just a charting platform, it is also a journal, a diary, for ALL your trading ideas. The features it has are enormous. You can literally screenshot/snip your screen or part of it from another window and then CTRL+V it onto the chart itself. Personal TIP: I picture my physical notes, then I put the picture inside next to the chart, then I save the chart image with a link, and then I put the link into the idea text, and it shows me the note, like here: You can always revise your documentation and add to it as much as you want. The more evidence you can add, the more sound your pattern is, and the more confident you will be in putting your money on it, since you "KNOW" it should manifest because it is backed up by stock market logic and research. The price will move, with you or without you, ask yourself always the question: "Can this move be predicted beforehand?" and start your way from there... Be honest with yourself, some moves just CANT be predicted, they come out of nowhere, but others CAN and WILL give you HUGE SIGNS... if you document them... Here’s a structured approach to help you capture and refine your trading insights: 1. Find a Market Logic Before diving into trades, establish a market logic—a hypothesis or theory that drives your trading decisions. This might stem from historical data patterns, news-driven market reactions, or economic indicators. Ensure your logic is grounded in data and has a clear basis for expected outcomes. This foundational step helps avoid random, emotion-driven trades. 2. Give It a Name Assign a distinct and memorable name to your market logic. This helps you quickly reference and differentiate between multiple strategies. A good name can be as simple as “Earnings Reversal Strategy” or as creative as “The Phoenix Rebound.” Naming your strategy not only aids in documentation but also enhances your cognitive recall during decision-making. 3. Take Pictures of It Documenting your strategy visually is crucial. Take screenshots of relevant charts, trade setups, and indicators. Annotate these images with key details like entry and exit points, stop-loss levels, and any other pertinent information. Visual aids can clarify your logic and make it easier to analyze past trades. TradingView allows you to insert a chart into your research, giving you the most visual documentation possible. By the way, if you are short in time, you can do a video of your documentation and speaking your idea of a strategy instead of writing it, much faster documentation. Also, much more interactive for future reference. 4. Write the Pros of It Clearly outline the pros of your strategy. These could include: Consistency: Does your strategy yield reliable results over time? Risk Management: Does it have built-in mechanisms to minimize losses? Simplicity: Is it straightforward to execute without complex calculations? Adaptability: Can it be applied across different market conditions? 5. Write the Cons of It - Are You Maybe Wrong? Be honest about the cons of your strategy. Acknowledge potential weaknesses: Overfitting: Does your strategy rely too heavily on historical data, potentially failing in real-time? Complexity: Is it too complicated to execute consistently? Market Conditions: Does it only work in specific market environments? Emotional Bias: Are there elements that could lead to biased decision-making? 6. Write the Limitations of It - Where It Works, and Why? Define the limitations of your strategy. Clearly state where and why it works, and under what conditions it might fail: Timeframes: Does it perform best on certain timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly)? Market Phases: Is it more effective during trending or ranging markets? Instrument Specificity: Does it work better with certain asset classes (stocks, forex, commodities)? Understanding these limitations helps you apply your strategy more effectively and avoid unnecessary risks. 7. Connect with Different Ideas - Do They Make Sense? Finally, cross-reference your strategy with other ideas and strategies. This process involves: Finding synergies: Does your strategy complement other existing strategies? Seeking validation: Are there external sources or research that support your logic? Peer Review: Discuss your strategy with fellow traders to gain different perspectives.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by ZoharCho
1
Bitcoin major sign of Stop loss hunting and dump seen!!!This is educational post and i am making it short this time with one example which happened at 13/Jan/2025 as you can see previous time we had same scenario but they did hit stop loss of sellers + buyers and how is that ? price was breaking 90K$ support zone which is strong and major support for BTC in lower time frames as you can see at that time and it breaks that immediately after hitting so many stop loss of buyers below 90K$ and get them out of their buy positions it pumped and start to rise also it hit so many stop loss of sellers with high leverage which sell the Bitcoin below that support zone and they were looking for the upcoming dump after breakout but it didn't happen and both sides get loss and someone's loss is some others profit and this high volume there is reason of that and after price pump above we can see more gain also appear due to that good stop loss hunting and it seems that we have the same scenario now happening but this time it seems that Resistance and ATH resistance zone is breaking so take care. How to find out if the breakout is valid or is it fake breakout ? 1. let it breaks the resistance or support with at least +-3% as confirmation. 2. after breakout wait for retest of breakout and let it retest previous support for example and see if it turns to resistance zone this time. 3. high volume is needed after 2-3 next candles after breakout + breakout candle. I think we may have another fake breakout and soon price will fall and dump hard and this is my thoughts. So always do your own research and DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <>
Education
by MMBTtrader
24
HOW TO TRADE with the ICHIMOKUThe Ichimoku is one of the best-trending indicators out there. The best strategy you could use is the CLOUD BREAK. When the price is breaking out of the cloud, you enter into a trade in this direction. This is the best strategy because the Ichimoku Indicator shows you multiple timeframes simultaneously, but the cloud is the highest timeframe, which means it is the strongest, and you will have fewer whipsaws and false entries with it. This indicator is also a great tool, to hold onto your winning trades and let your profits run. Once you get professional with it, you will know how to recognize both trending environments and ranging environments. This means that you will know how to apply different strategies that are fit to that specific environment.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by ZoharCho
Mastering XAUUSD Gold Trading: A Trading Plan For Success!🌟 In this video, I share my detailed trading plan and emphasize why a well-structured strategy is 🔑 to success. Learn how to trade Gold 🪙 using a trend continuation approach while leveraging TradingView's powerful tools and features to gain a real edge in the markets. 🖥️✨ Here’s what we’ll cover: 📊 Trend Analysis: A top-down review of market direction to identify opportunities. 📈 Market Structure & Price Action: Key insights into how price moves and behaves. 🎯 Trade Planning: Using higher timeframe support and resistance levels to set stop loss and target points. 🛠️ TradingView Features: Practical tools to refine your analysis and boost efficiency. This video is an in-depth guide to trading effectively with a proven strategy, enhanced by TradingView's unique capabilities. 🚀 Please remember, this is not financial advice. 📜
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDEducation
by fxtraderanthony
#WhatsTheTicker Your Asset Our Expertise Technical/Fundamental#WhatsTheTicker: Your Asset, Our Expertise 🚀 📩 Comment Your Ticker Below: We’ll analyze your ticker directly in the comments, offering in-depth insights tailored to you. Let’s grow smarter, together. ✨ Discover a unique mathematical approach to support and resistance, designed for day trading and swing trading success! Why This Matters: 🔍 Precision Over Arbitrary Lines: Forget static, arbitrary lines. Our analysis defines dynamic Neutral Zones for equilibrium and actionable Extreme Zones for deeply oversold or overbought conditions. Whether you're navigating quick trades or planning long-term entries, these zones offer clarity. 🛒 Buy the Dip Like a Pro: Extreme Negative Zones highlight fear-driven sell-offs, perfect for disciplined, systematic dip-buying. Extreme Positive Zones flag overheated markets, helping you lock in gains early. 📊 Strategic Trading Decisions: Neutral Zones: Act as dynamic support or resistance, guiding smart entry and exit points. Extreme Zones: Combine market psychology with math to identify value-based opportunities. ⚡ For Day Traders and Swing Traders: Whether you're capturing intraday momentum or building positions, these tools adapt to your needs with pinpoint accuracy. ✅ Like ❤️ and Follow 🌟 for exclusive strategies that redefine trading insights. ⚠️ Stay Agile: Markets shift quickly, and even the best signals require flexibility. Always trade with a plan! Best regards, DCAChampion
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by DCAChampion
BITCOIN MARKET CYCLEThe common misconception among market participants is that, they say we’re just at the beginning of the bull run, but what many don’t realize is that we’re actually nearing its end. The bull run began in November 2022, and we are approaching what is known as the "blow-off top." During this phase, there will likely be a mini altcoin season in Wave 5. In this Wave 5, many self-proclaimed gurus and influencers will hype the market, claiming, "We’re just getting started!" This will entice market participants to keep chasing gains, only to end up trapped when the bear market sets in because they failed to take profits. Always remember to be smart, study the market cycle carefully, and make informed decisions. Taking profit at the right time is key to avoiding losses.
Education
by chase_ID
BTC's Bull-Bear Cycles: A 14-Year Historical PerspectiveSince Bitcoin's inception, the crypto market has experienced four major bull-bear cycles that have defined its trajectory over the last 14 years. This chart provides a detailed analysis of these historical trends, emphasizing the diminishing returns observed during each bull cycle: 2013 Bull Cycle: Bitcoin surged an astonishing 22,700%, marking its first major bull run and firmly establishing itself as the pioneer of the crypto market. 2017 Bull Cycle: The rally reached a 9,879% increase, a substantial gain but less aggressive compared to the earlier cycle. 2021 Bull Cycle: Bitcoin rose 1,614%, signaling further moderation in returns as the market matured. 2024 Market: The ongoing market surge reflects a 571% increase from its bottom, showcasing the continuation of the trend toward diminishing bull cycle returns. To further contextualize these cycles, we have incorporated a 100-bar RSI indicator on the 3D timeframe, which highlights a consistent pattern of lower highs over Bitcoin's 14-year history. This RSI trend provides critical insights into the market's long-term momentum and strength. While the numbers have slightly shifted since our previous April 2024 analysis, this updated chart reaffirms the broader trend of diminishing returns and evolving market dynamics. Traders and investors are encouraged to consider these historical patterns when evaluating their strategies in the current cycle. What do you think about these insights? Your feedback and ideas are welcome!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ama-Beeps
Understanding and Using the Gann Fan in TradingThe Gann Fan is a powerful technical analysis tool developed by the legendary trader W.D. Gann. It consists of diagonal lines drawn at specific angles, which help traders identify potential support and resistance levels based on time and price. While the Gann Fan can be complex for beginners, mastering its use can provide valuable insights into market trends and turning points. --- What is the Gann Fan? The Gann Fan is a grid of lines radiating from a central pivot point on a price chart. These lines are constructed at various angles, representing the relationship between time (horizontal axis) and price (vertical axis). The most commonly used lines are: - 1x1 (45-degree angle): Represents one unit of price for one unit of time. It is considered the most critical line, reflecting a perfect balance between price and time. - 2x1: Indicates two units of price for one unit of time. This is a steeper line, suggesting faster price movements relative to time. -1x2:Represents one unit of price for two units of time, showing a slower price movement compared to time. Additional lines such as 3x1, 1x3, 4x1, and 1x4 can also be used to identify key levels of support and resistance. --- Principles of the Gann Fan W.D. Gann believed that price and time move in harmony, and market trends develop at predictable angles. The Gann Fan lines aim to represent this harmony and forecast potential market movements. The key principles include: 1.Balance Between Time and Price: When the price moves along the 1x1 line, it indicates a balanced market. 2.Support and Resistance Levels:Gann Fan lines often act as dynamic support or resistance. Prices tend to respect these levels, bouncing off or breaking through them. 3.Trend Reversal Indicators: A break above or below a fan line can signal a potential trend reversal or continuation. --- How to Use the Gann Fan Step 1: Setting Up the Chart To use the Gann Fan effectively, ensure your chart has an equal scaling ratio between price and time. This ensures that the angles are accurate. Many modern charting platforms, like TradingView, automatically adjust the scaling when drawing Gann Fans. Step 2: Identify a Significant Pivot Point Choose a notable high or low on the chart as the anchor point for your Gann Fan. This point is critical as it determines the origin of the fan lines. Step 3: Draw the Fan Lines Using the Gann Fan tool on your charting platform: - Start at the selected pivot point. - Draw lines radiating outward at the predefined angles (1x1, 2x1, 1x2, etc.). Step 4: Analyze Price Movements - **Support and Resistance:** Observe how prices interact with the fan lines. If the price approaches a fan line, it might act as support or resistance. - Breakouts: A breakout above or below a fan line may signal the start of a new trend. - Trend Strength:The slope of the line indicates the trend’s strength. Steeper lines (e.g., 2x1) reflect stronger trends, while shallower lines (e.g., 1x2) suggest weaker trends. --- Best Practices for Using the Gann Fan 1. Combine with Other Tools:Use the Gann Fan alongside other technical indicators like moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, or oscillators to confirm signals. 2.Backtest on Historical Data:Practice using the Gann Fan on historical price data to understand how well it works for a particular market or asset. 3.Focus on Major Lines: Start with key lines like 1x1, 2x1, and 1x2 before incorporating additional angles. 4.Adjust for Scaling Issues: If your chart appears distorted, ensure that both axes are equally scaled. --- Limitations of the Gann Fan While the Gann Fan is a useful tool, it’s important to be aware of its limitations: - Subjectivity:Choosing the initial pivot point can be subjective, affecting the accuracy of the analysis. -Scaling Challenges:Incorrect scaling can distort the angles and lead to unreliable signals. -Not a Standalone Tool: The Gann Fan works best when combined with other analysis techniques and market context. --- Conclusion The Gann Fan is a versatile and insightful tool for traders seeking to understand the interplay between time and price. By mastering its use and combining it with other analysis methods, traders can enhance their ability to predict market trends and make informed decisions. As with any technical tool, practice and experience are essential to unlock its full potential.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Cryptonic_Trading
Crypto market or Your dream world-Maybe it is Whale's Dream landHi in the Summary of what is going on on this Educational post we have these topics: 1. How much is percentage of BTC pump from low and is it saving spot here? 2. How did market react previous time when every one rush to buy crypto? 3. are these short-term falls and soon after that pump back above 100K$ any sign? 4. Future of Bitcoin(long-term)? 5. Where is better Buy zone for me to enter after i miss +600% 700% pump on most of the tokens? 1. How much is percentage of BTC pump from low and is it saving spot here? The answer is crazy +500% to 580% pump: from the low to ATH is something around 580% gain and from range zone of daily low to above 100K$ it would be around 500% rise. and if you take a look at that chart you can see at July 2024 we had short-term fall of 32% which is what i am looking for now, 30% dump here as a correction is nothing but it may definitely liquid so many Traders and new investors with Low leverage even. And we can not say how much it fall not sure to say 20% or 30% or 40% But it needs range or correction soon. 2. How did market react previous time when every one rush to buy crypto? you can read the chart the info and most investors feeling is also mentioned on the chart. 3. are these short-term fall and soon after that pump back above 100K$ any sign? I can not talk about this very sure because it may be sign for two possible scenarios: 1. the Bull candles and market is strong and every time it is getting back near ATH. 2. The Whales or ... are pumping it soon after they sell huge amount to New investors then after it pumps and so many other investor come To buy because it may break ATH and ... they sell huge more amount and this processes of selling usually takes a lot because we are talking about huge amount of sell and they need more investors to bring and sell them token and after that dump it and range it down there in -40% or more and get back their tokens. So yes i think the price is getting back up is Because of More sells to new investors which are rushing to come to the market.(But these are all my experience and you always do your own research) 4. Future of Bitcoin(long-term)? IF we are talking about long-term i should say my view is also Bullish. Why not we all know the benefits of Bitcoin and crypto market and we all know it is not like our money which we are using daily and banks can easily print them and ... and day by day the value of them decreasing and the amount of them are increasing But Bitcoin or most crypto the tokens are Fixed number and day by day they are getting more valuable and acceptable in world and......... 5. Where is better Buy zone for me to enter after i miss +600% 700% pump on most of the tokens? As i mentioned above this is my personal Analysis of where to buy and .. and it may be right and it may be false so always in market open different analysis and also do your own analysis and do research.(Because it is my analysis but that one in your hand is your money so take care) So i think the major buy zone and major daily support if it touches and also it holds is : 70K$ to 80K$ for now i may update after i see candles. Conclusion: Crypto market or Your dream world---Maybe it is Whale's Dream land The answer is this: Yes the crypto market is your Dream world + also it is Whales Dream world too(😊) And it is all about who hunt first? and who is hunted? Please if you like the content like this post also lets talk about your experience in market and any questions in comments Below. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) and also remember this may happen or not and this was my own view so always keep searching and learning and good luck and i provide this post to give you some warning and learning about BTC or your own Tokens
Education
by MMBTtrader
29
Altcoins: What Comes Up Must Go Down?Giant Flat Correction could be built on the altcoins chart (less Ethereum) Indicators: -Collapse in three waves in 2021-2022 (wave A) -Retest of 2021 peak in three waves in 2023-2024 (wave B) -wave B retested the start of wave A and failed to grasp the bullish ground beyond -first move down and small correction that keeps below all-time high could be the harbinger of new five waves down in wave C Large wave C should at least retest the valley of wave A at 288b cap What could be the reason? -Altcoins could lose its shine as institutions prefer only BTC -Some huge risk aversion in global economy You are welcome to share your views in the comments below to enrich our outlook.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Education
by aibek
2
Wave Analysis Cheat Sheet: Master Technical Analysis Wave Analysis Cheat Sheet: 🌊 Master the Market with Ease What is Wave Analysis? Wave Analysis, developed in the 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, breaks market cycles into predictable patterns 📊. These 13 recurring waves move prices in repetitive cycles but vary in size and timing. How It Works: 🔄 Market moves are cyclical: 5 waves 📈 follow the main trend (Motive Waves). 3 waves 📉 move against the trend (Corrective Waves). This framework helps traders forecast price movements and sharpen their entry and exit points 🎯. Key Wave Types 1. Motive Waves 🚀 Action waves that align with the dominant trend. 🔥 Impulse Waves: Strong price push, always in 5 sub-waves. 🌀 Diagonal Waves: A twist on Motive Waves, forming patterns like Leading or Ending Diagonals. 2. Corrective Waves 🔄 Reaction waves moving against the trend. 🛑 Cannot be divided into 5 waves (unlike Motive Waves). Common Types: Zigzag Waves ⚡: Sharp corrections that mimic an impulse. Flat Waves ➡️: Sideways corrections with sub-waves A-B-C. Triangle Waves 🔺: Consolidation patterns signaling continuation. Common Patterns in Wave Analysis Impulse Waves: Push prices 📈 in the trend direction. Rules: Wave 4 must NOT overlap Wave 1—strictly 5 sub-waves. Diagonal Waves: Motive Waves with unique structures 🌐, like Leading or Ending Diagonals. Corrective Waves: Push against trends 📉 with patterns like: Zigzags ⚡ (single, double, or triple). Flats ➡️ (regular, expanded, or running). Triangles 🔺 (contracting or expanding). Trading Insights 💡 Wave 3: The Trader’s Favorite Wave 3 often packs the most momentum 🔥—the perfect time to ride the breakout! Why Use Wave Analysis? 🌊 Wave Analysis isn’t just theory—it’s your key 🔑 to decoding market psychology and making smarter moves. By spotting patterns early, you can: Anticipate price moves 🎯. Maximize gains 📈. Minimize losses 📉. Use this cheat sheet as your go-to guide for riding the market waves 🌊🚀!
Education
by DCAChampion
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 3Hello Traders. With the new year upon us, I think sufficient time has passed for the charts to develop from our previous #Bitcoin analysis. Having accurately forecasted the macro trends for each pivot within a reasonable margin of error, I believe we're approaching another pivotal moment this year, aligning with our previous predictions. Please take this post with a grain of salt, and more importantly, please use it to add confluence to your personal theories. In this post, we will be diving deeper into the Elliott Wave Theory by also integrating the Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory. By combining the two theories, the chart below represents our current position within the final leg for what could be giving us signs of a possible reversal (again, within margin of error depending on how far wave 5 extends): Wyckoff believed that markets move in cycles, which arguably has a direct correlation to the Elliott Wave 5-wave/3-wave cycle. Wyckoff introduced a four-stage market cycle , attributing it to the actions of institutional players who strategically influence price movements to capitalize on the behavior of uninformed traders. Simply put, the theory gives us a further understanding of 'cause and effect' within the markets. In my view, the Wyckoff cycle also does a fantastic job of representing market psychology. And if intertwined correctly with the Elliott Wave Theory, price action tends to follow patterns in similar ways. The Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory often overlap in their application and interpretation of market behavior, but they approach the market from different perspectives. Both theories aim to understand and predict market movements based on the behavior of market participants and price cycles, making them complementary in many ways. Commonalities Between the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory: Market Cycles - Wyckoff Theory identifies a four-stage market cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. The Elliott Wave Theory also emphasizes cyclic behavior through a fractal structure of impulsive and corrective waves within broader market cycles. - Both theories suggest that price movements are not random but follow identifiable patterns driven by market psychology. Psychological Basis - Wyckoff focuses on the interaction between "big players" (institutional traders) and "uninformed traders," highlighting group psychology and how institutional actions exploit public sentiment. - Elliott Wave focuses on the crowd psychology behind price movements, suggesting that mass investor sentiment drives waves in predictable patterns. **Both theories reflect the influence of human behavior and emotions on market prices.** Application Across Timeframes - Both theories are applicable across multiple timeframes, from intraday trading to long-term investments. This flexibility allows traders to use them in conjunction for deeper market analysis. Identification of Trends and Reversals - In Wyckoff Theory, phases like Markup and Markdown align with Elliott Wave's impulsive trends, while Accumulation and Distribution phases can correspond to corrective wave patterns. - Both approaches aim to identify key turning points in the market, helping traders anticipate trends and reversals. ----- The Four Stages of the Market Cycle According to Wyckoff Accumulation Phase This is a sideways range where institutional traders accumulate positions quietly to avoid driving prices higher. During this phase, the asset remains out of the public spotlight, and uninformed traders are largely unaware of the activity. On a price chart, the phase appears as a range-bound movement between areas of support and resistance. Markup Phase Following the accumulation phase, the market enters a classic uptrend. As prices rise, uninformed traders begin to notice and join in, further fueling the rally. Institutional players may take partial profits or continue holding for greater gains. Short sellers caught off guard are forced to cover their positions, adding additional buying pressure and driving prices to new highs. Distribution Phase After the uptrend loses momentum, the market transitions into a sideways range, marking the distribution phase. Institutional players use this period to offload their holdings, while uninformed traders, still expecting higher prices, continue to buy. Some institutional traders may also initiate short positions during this phase to benefit from the subsequent price decline. On the price chart, this phase appears as a reversal of the uptrend into a sideways range. Markdown Phase The markdown phase is characterized by a downtrend following the distribution phase. Institutional traders add to their short positions, while uninformed traders, recognizing the decline too late, sell in panic, creating further downward pressure. The market eventually reaches new lows as selling accelerates. The Model of Group Psychology After the markdown phase, the cycle often repeats, moving from accumulation to markup, distribution, and markdown again. The Wyckoff cycle offers a simplified perspective on market behavior, focusing on the psychological dynamics between two groups: institutional traders (the "big players") and uninformed traders (the "small players"). It highlights how the mistakes and emotional reactions of uninformed traders often benefit institutional players. The Wyckoff cycle provides valuable insights into market behavior but is not without limitations: Limitations of the Wyckoff Trading Cycle Difficulty in Identifying Phases Distinguishing between accumulation and distribution phases can be challenging. What appears to be an accumulation phase might turn into a distribution phase, with the market unexpectedly breaking lower. Timing Challenges Entering trades during accumulation or distribution phases is difficult due to the lack of clear stop-loss levels. Placing stops around support and resistance often leads to being trapped. Complexity in Trading Trends Trading the markup and markdown phases requires skill, as they are filled with complex price action patterns. Modern markets often experience frequent trend reversals, complicating trade execution. Irregular Cycles The market does not always follow the textbook sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Variations such as accumulation followed by markdown or other combinations are possible. Despite its limitations, the Wyckoff cycle remains a useful framework for understanding market behavior. It is best combined with other strategies, such as price action and market dynamics, to enhance its practical applicability. While modern markets may reduce the cycle's predictive reliability, it still serves as a powerful tool for traders who know how to apply it effectively. Proper Application of the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Overlap (in Practice): Trend Identification: The Markup Phase in Wyckoff often aligns with Elliott's Impulse Waves (1, 3, and 5), while the Markdown Phase aligns with corrective waves or bearish impulses. Sideways Markets: Wyckoff’s Accumulation and Distribution phases correspond to Elliott’s Corrective Waves (A-B-C) or sideways consolidations (Flats and Triangles). Volume Confirmation: Traders can use Wyckoff’s volume analysis to validate Elliott Wave patterns, especially in identifying wave 3's (typically accompanied by high volume) and wave 5's (often showing declining volume). Timing and Execution: Wyckoff’s emphasis on identifying support/resistance levels and trading ranges can help refine the entry and exit points suggested by the Elliott Wave Theory. Combining the Two: Many traders find value in combining these theories: - Use Wyckoff to identify key price levels and market phases (e.g., when accumulation or distribution is occurring). - Use Elliott Wave to determine the broader trend structure and anticipate the next moves within those levels. - By integrating Wyckoff’s volume-driven approach with Elliott’s fractal patterns, traders can gain a comprehensive view of the market and improve their ability to time trades effectively. ---- By integrating the concepts from both theories and the outlined schematics, we can now take a closer look at how Bitcoin is behaving through the lens of these frameworks. As observed, Bitcoin appears to be nearing the completion of the potential 5th wave we've been discussing over the past year. In my view, a bear market (or at least a significant correction) may be approaching. While timing is uncertain due to the unlikely nature of extensions, we can use insights from both Wyckoff and Elliott Wave theories to gauge our current position. I believe we are likely in the Distribution phase, which aligns with the 5th wave. The 5th wave can extend as much as it wants, but it won't change the overall conclusion of the cycle. We still anticipate the cyclical behavior that Bitcoin has shown in the past. While past price action isn't necessarily a predictor of future movements, it often follows a similar pattern.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
22
Lesson Learned: What Seperates the Greats from the AmeteursI am getting back to trading again after several years of unprofitability. I went over my trade entries from many years ago, as well as entries I backtested, now that trading view seems to have improved it's bar replay, it's been even easier. I made a discovery: 1. High R/R as well as moves with possible multiple entry opportunities are found on the 1hr or higher timeframe breakout structures. 2. The losses I had taken came from trading breakouts within a consolidating market. 3. Winners start working rather quickly, they go move big and fast. When checking my trade duration, the losses tend to happen either very fast, or they linger for a bit, then hit my SL. or perhaps a small profit. Winners tend to have very fast(especially since I daytrade the 5min). This was a great observation, as last night, I got to see it in action again, using live money and real emotions. Now I can see what I do so I can learn. Lessons Learned: 1. Trade Only 1hr or higher timeframe breakout structures. It's fine to take a 5min breakout within to catch the full breakout(as you would take a 1hr structure to catch a Daily chart breakout), however, step back if market is hostile. This allows for: Optimal R/R due to a bigger trending move Higher win rate due to cutting out losses from random price breakouts due to using only the 5min chart patterns. Patience to wait for the bigger trend to break out, when the market moves and can actually provide a good trading environment. 2. Avoid Hostile Markets. mentioned on lesson 1, but is worth reemphasizing. Continuing to reenter a market that is clearly moving unfavorably to your plan is death by 1,000 papercuts. Rather than continuing to try to get in, which is absolutely fine in a favorable market, use your "sit-out power" - The discipline to stay out of the market when conditions dont suit your strategy. By sitting out during unfavorable periods, top traders like Mark Minervini(U.S. Investing Championship 1st place winner on multiple years with multiple students also reaching top ranks) maintains a win rate closer to 50%. 3. If market takes too long to go, it could be a sign that it is not ready yet and may most likely continue correcting . This is clearly evident in how the market today, although it seemed to be forming double tops, and breakout structures, it didnt breakout yet, it just extended it's correction, making this move unpredictable, and raising the chances of stopping out. Trading is probabilities, and successful trading is moving the probabilities in your favor. This may be an opportunity to revisit during more favorable market conditions, when it begins to trend. I used a time stop today, and it is something that I have recently started implementing, as I also discovered that many successful traders also use a time stop, because timing the market breakout is a key element in trading the market profitably, as well as is staying out when the timing is off and avoiding a full unnecessary loss when markets are moving unfavorably for a long period. A tweet I read today, published by Law Wai-Sum, known on X as @JLawStock, One of Mark Minervini's student's, and also 1st place winner of the Eleven Month 2024 U.S. Investing Championship with a 308.6% return in the Money Manager Verified Rating($1 Million+ Accounts), yesterday, mentioned " to improve trading performance, the first step is not to seek trading opportunities but to learn how to eliminate them ...Currently, the U.S. Stock market is also not the time for me to engage in agressive trading. I have given up on many trading opportunities, but this is cautious timing approach allowed my overall account to achieve double digit growth last december with minimal drawdowns. The second step is to learn to focus on opportunities that truly belong to you. How many times in the past have you kept firing away, only to end up busy for nothing and making no progress? This shows that the majority of trades are, in fact, meaningless. The major contributions to your account often come from a few key trades. But one thing is for certain: These key trades do not present entry opportunities every day- they only appear at the most favorable moments, and when they do, that's when you grab the money in large handfuls..." This was so special for me to read precisely today, as I took losses for trading an unfavorable market, and now, hours later, I see, the market was not breaking out. Jesse Livermore, or JLaw himself couldve been trying to trade these breakouts and they wont go. The key is, they wouldn't continue trading these breakouts. they dont get results from the markets because the market just move in their favor, rather, they decide to keep their profits by staying out when it does not. I invite you, as a reader, to take action on the knoweledge learned, and observe your past trades. zoom out, were you taking losses due to trading a hostile and corrective market? Rather than switch and learn new strategies(As I once did, which was fine too, as it was great knoweledge, but I go back to the basics, what I started with, because it works, it always did, I just needed to do a better job of understanding when it worked and when I was overtrading), I challenge you too, to develop further YOUR strategy. To understand when to stay out and sit in cash.
Education
by DAVID_GIRALDO
Becoming a Meme Coin Millionaire in 2025 Guide ▪️Becoming a millionaire through trading Solana-based meme coins in 2025 is a high-risk and speculative endeavor that requires careful planning, research, and disciplined execution. Here's a guide to help you navigate this volatile but potentially lucrative market: 1. Understand the Meme Coin Market Meme coins are cryptocurrencies that derive value largely from community enthusiasm, social media trends, and memes rather than intrinsic utility. ▪️Key Characteristics: -High volatility and speculative value. -Often community-driven and influenced by social media hype. -Short-term opportunities with rapid price fluctuations. -Popular Solana-Based Meme Coins: Keep track of emerging and trending meme coins in the Solana ecosystem. Join Solana communities on platforms like Twitter, Reddit, and Discord to stay updated. 2. Start with Research Thorough research is critical before investing in any meme coin. ▪️Analyze the Project: -Tokenomics: Look at the coin's supply, distribution, and burn mechanisms. -Community Strength: Check the activity and size of the project's community. -Development Team: Identify whether the project has a credible team or is purely community-driven. Market Trends: Track Solana ecosystem developments and meme coin trends. Use tools like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko to monitor meme coin performance. 3. Develop a Strategy A clear strategy can protect you from emotional decision-making. ▪️Set Financial Goals: -Decide how much you want to invest and your profit targets. -Be prepared to lose the amount you invest, as meme coins are highly speculative. Risk Management: -Diversify your investments across multiple meme coins and other crypto assets. -Allocate only a small percentage of your portfolio to meme coins. Exit Strategy: Decide in advance when to sell—whether at a specific profit percentage or when a coin reaches a particular price. 4. Master Timing Timing is critical in meme coin trading due to their speculative nature. ▪️Watch for Early Opportunities: -Participate in pre-sales or initial DEX offerings (IDOs) for meme coins in the Solana ecosystem. -Use platforms like Solana's Raydium or Serum for early access to new coins. Leverage Social Media Trends: -Monitor social media platforms and influencers who often drive meme coin popularity. -Stay alert for trending hashtags, memes, or community events. Take Advantage of Volatility: Be ready to buy low during market dips and sell high during hype cycles. 5. Use the Right Tools Tools and resources can help you stay informed and make better trading decisions. ▪️Trading Platforms: -Use decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Raydium or Orca for Solana-based tokens. -Use Solscan or other Solana block explorers to verify transactions. Analytics Tools: Track price movements with crypto analytics platforms. Use bots or automated trading tools to take advantage of rapid price changes. 6. Stay Disciplined Discipline is crucial to survive the meme coin market. Avoid FOMO: Fear of missing out (FOMO) often leads to poor decisions. Stick to your strategy. Resist Emotional Trading: Avoid panic selling during dips or overbuying during hype peaks. Reassess Regularly: Periodically evaluate your portfolio and adjust based on performance and market conditions. 7. Be Aware of Risks The meme coin market is highly speculative, and there are significant risks. ▪️Scams and Rug Pulls: -Beware of projects with anonymous teams or no clear use case. -Verify contracts and audit reports, if available. Market Volatility: -Prices can plummet as quickly as they rise. -Only invest what you can afford to lose. Regulatory Risks: Monitor potential regulations that could affect meme coins or the broader crypto market. 8. Cultivate Long-Term Wealth Building While meme coins might offer quick gains, consider diversifying into more stable assets to build long-term wealth. ▪️Invest in Solana Ecosystem Projects: Solana-based DeFi, NFTs, and other utility-driven projects could provide steadier returns. Stake SOL or Meme Coins: Earn passive income through staking or liquidity provision. Reinvest Profits Wisely: Use meme coin profits to invest in more stable crypto assets or traditional investments. ▪️Conclusion Becoming a Solana meme coin millionaire in 2025 requires research, timing, and a strong risk management strategy. While meme coins offer exciting opportunities, they are highly speculative and risky. Balance your enthusiasm with caution, and focus on building a sustainable approach to crypto trading.
BINANCE:SOLUSDEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
29
Market Analysis: How to Execute This Trade // EURUSDFX:EURUSD How to Execute This Trade Forex Analysis Over the past three months, the EUR/USD exchange rate has experienced notable fluctuations. In early October 2024, the euro was trading at approximately $1.10. By early January 2025, it had declined to around $1.04, marking a depreciation of about 5.5% How to Make This Trade? Let’s analyze the recent movements in the EUR/USD market. After a medium-term upward trend and a long-term lateral trend, EUR/USD failed to break the resistance level at 1.10. In October, this triggered a downward trend that led to a 2% decline, repositioning the pair on important support levels for the recent rally. However, these supports were unable to hold. Subsequently, we observed a small price recovery, building a timid upward move. However, it was quickly stopped by another decline, likely due to new data. This decline established a support level, which soon turned into resistance and a high-volume area (the yellow zone). These two signals indicate the strength of the downtrend. The support failed to hold even upon the second touch, confirming the weakness of the pair. The most common mistake in such situations is going long with the thought, “It has fallen so much; it must reverse now.” But markets don’t work that way. You need to view the market objectively and unemotionally. In this specific case, the market clearly indicates a downtrend, so the best strategy is to follow the trend and enter short at the next rebound // The chances of success are much higher this way than trying to go long. After breaking support and finding a buying zone on a significant support level (part of the long-term lateral trend mentioned earlier), the price moved back up and broke the resistance area. In such cases, it is always better to wait for a “climax,” a sharp movement that confirms the breakout. A good entry point could have been the resistance level or the volume zone. To avoid unpleasant surprises or anomalous movements, set an alert and wait for confirmation before entering. Ideally, you want to see an upward candle entering your area of interest, retracing, and closing with a medium-to-large spike. Our reasoning is confirmed as the market absorbs a large candle, creating an excellent opportunity for a short. To the left, we see a large expansion candle breaking several support levels—these candles often act effectively at their base, and this case is no exception. We placed our trade at the candle’s close, aiming for a risk-reward (RR) of 3.46. The stop loss (SL) was set above the expansion candle’s opening, giving it some breathing rooM // The more space you allow for your stop loss, the higher the probability of success. Let the trade run, and you’ll notice how the position almost never went into the red. This is because we waited for the right entry point without any emotional bias. Of course, this won’t always be the case, and mistakes will happen, but the key is to remain objective and measured. We were also fortunate that new data caused a sharp price drop. In such situations, it’s smart to capitalize on the movement // Cut losses short and let profits run. Adjust the take profit (TP) accordingly. Switching to a 10-minute time frame, we implemented a “Follow the Price” (FTP) strategy. This involves moving the TP higher, to the base of the last candle, and continuing to adjust it until the price fills the TP. Let’s see how much we extended the profit. In this case, the profit extension wasn’t huge but still added value without taking additional risks. This is “How to Execute This Trade.”
Education
by TIMINGTRADE
ALTSEASON within Q1 of 2025?Many of us have been anticipating an altseason, especially considering it's been about 3 years since the bull run began, yet we still haven't experienced a significant one. Several factors seem to be holding it back, including high Bitcoin dominance, delayed institutional interest in altcoins, weak altcoin fundamentals, and challenging economic and macro conditions, such as elevated interest rates and recession fears, which limit speculative investments in riskier assets. However, my analysis suggests that an altseason may emerge within the 𝐖 wave and this phase could provide a glimpse of an altseason, potentially lasting around 90 days, or within 𝐐𝟏. Following this, we may enter a larger corrective phase during the 𝐗 wave, presenting a generational buying opportunity. This setup could pave the way for another altseason during the next leg down in the 𝐘 wave. 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 : The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by chase_ID
3