Argentina
BTCARS: If in Argentina, buy some Bitcoin each monthIf you have saved money in metals, dollars, or stocks, you're in more or less good shape relative to the peso, but, Bitcoin will outperform most other markets, and will be a great store of wealth, for at least 15 to 30% of your wealth. You can save each month and add to your positions in BTC, or simply allocate some of your speculative resources to it for the long term. If we get any kind of correction we can add to it, but it's likely to keep trending higher and higher, so don't miss the boat if you haven't bought in yet.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months).
Good luck,
Ivan.
Opportunity in Argentine markets?In the last year, Argentine markets recorded a rise.
In the first days of November, we see a correction.
After the United States presidential election, will continue the trend?
USDARS: Update, we broke the key levelThis doesn't bode well for my local currency, the Argentine Peso. It's possible this week triggers a weekly time at mode uptrend signal, that forecasts a rally to at least 16.052 within ten weeks, starting with this week as #1.
With the fundamental events this week, it's possible this is the start of the acceleration and breakout of this range, specially now that RgMov has shifted into an uptrend in the daily chart, and that we're above the fundamental key levels originated from local events (presidential speeches).
Good luck to us all (mostly Argentinian residents that have to deal with hyperinflation).
Ivan Labrie.
OIL/ARS: Uptrend spotted, YPF going up?Seems like the case here, we could see a prolonged rally in YPF and OIL expressed in ARS.
If you drive, sorry for you...hopefully, you have been buying USD and/or GOLD as per my reccomendation before this devaluation surge started.
Good luck, we'll need it.
Ivan Labrie.
DJIFF - A Grand Future Ahead.I feel as though this is a stock that's less appreciated. They recently acquired 11,000 acres of land in Argentina for $60,000. The exciting part about this is that Argentina has like 70% of the world's lithium or some crap like that, idk look it up. That being said the fact they bought land in a nice spot is telling me they have a good relationship with the local government. I see a good future for this company as well as PEMIF when lithium demands start to rise. I would get in early for this and ride it out.
To top it off they even had some promising scans in Nevada for drilling. Can't wait to see where they go.
YPF: Time at mode forecastThis is the potential upside in store for YPF shares, if the uptrend confirms. You can look to take a long position here, risking a drop under the recent low to be safe. We can add to it once it confirms the biweekly uptrend, very similarly to the commodity index setup (logically, due to the sector).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold priced in pesos: Argentinians, swap your USD for GoldPhysical gold is the asset to own, if you live in Argentina and don't trust in the government, the currency, or the stock market. Owning shares in $MERV stocks might work well, but I'd rather avoid that risk considering the country's fundamentals, and stick to physical gold.
I had reccomended to buy dollars when price was around $13 something for USDARS (see related ideas). Well, that can still continue creeping higher, but I think it's a safer bet to swap (at least 50%) of your holdings for gold here. We have 15.41% upside vs the peso in store.
Compared to 6.05% left for $USDARS to appreciate further. And, there are risks of dollar weakening until December, so, now is the time for action.
Go, swap those USD for Gold, and thank me later.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BMA - Banco MacroIn our last post we recommended to buy $BMA, now the share is very near of USD 70. It's a good opportunity to buy this stock.
Now the stock is trading between USD 70 and 73.
USDARS: Confirmed a daily uptrend in placeMy local currency is in terrible shape, and has confirmed a daily uptrend as per the RgMov signal on chart. You can see the key levels associated to speeches by the Argentinian president Mauricio Macri, and how price action has moved between these levels so far.
I anticipate a breakout of this level above, and a continued rally in this currency pair.
If you took my advice and bought dollars, and/or gold/silver with your pesos, you're doing well.
Keep at it,
Good luck, and brace yourselves if you live here.
Ivan Labrie.
YPF If YPF cross the blue line and the 200 moving average line, I will recommend to buy and hold until USD 20. (You could sell in USD 19)
MERV: Looks toppy hereIn one week, the Merval index will be in a weekly downtrend, as long as the close is below 15561. Rgmov had fired a short signal 4 weeks ago, and this rally is a good opportunity for Argentinian investors to either unload longs, or even go short the index.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
GGAL: Perfect short setup in the makingGGAL is offering a great short setup here. This is an ADR (American depositary receipt), that is, basically, a foreign stock that is traded in an american exchange. It's of special interest since I'm from Argentina. Fellow argentinians can take note of this setup and trade it in the local market as well. Upside risk is the same, despite the ADR being priced in dollars, so the stop loss is easy to calculate: use the recent highest high.
Target is the bare minimum this stock should fall, and can possibly evolve into a larger move, since the Rgmov indicator is firmly planted in negative territory, without showing any new 44 bar high yet, after plotting a 44 bar low before.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
Banco Macro $BMAArgentina could be part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2017 as announce yesterday the MSCI. So this news could be the driver that need the ADR to broke the top
ARGENTINA | MERVAL LOOKING FOR 16.000The big fall after the presidential elections , Merval is testing 9.300. Channel with a Bullish trend looking for a new max. Argentina's economy is trying to grow up with international capitals, with many free market deals. The expectation for the econmy are so bullish because Argentina won big a victory to end 15 years in default .
Merval: Projected pathwayThis is my current forecast for the Merval index. I'm looking at a new leg down, to retest the Vix spike retracement support level cluster below.
I propose a wide stop long off the level below, but we could also take a short term short as depicted on chart and unwind and flip long.
You can check my previous forecast in the related ideas below.
I'm republishing with the original projection so you can see how it fared. Not bad, huh?
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.Here I am with a little contrarian idea.
There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies.
The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons).
That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Merval index: Bearish time at mode trend signal and fundamentalsIn this thread I'd like to discuss my current forecast for Argentina's Merval index.
Price expanded range down and crossed below the yearly average last week, after the Government was forced to make speculators use the official dollar rate to valuate their assets in the local market, beause of the decline of foreign reserve currency. Instantly many big speculators started selling and made the index crash 3 days ago.
This also impacted the unofficial exchange rate of the 'contado con liqui' dollar, which is a way to obtain dollars by buying stocks or bonds and selling them in foreign exchanges. With the strict government controls on foreign currency, there's a huge market revolving around this, which fuels the 'dollar blue' rates, which is a black market cash dollar you can buy without abiding by the government's limits and regulations.
The official rate is 70% lower than this last one.
Some key dates to keep in mind, from: bakerinstitute.org
"October 25 – Federal Election Day and Local Elections in 11 Provinces
On October 25 Argentina will hold its presidential election as well as elections in eight provinces to elect a total of 24 senators (one-third of the Senate) and elections in all 23 provinces and the city of Buenos Aires to elect 130 deputies (one-half of the Chamber of Deputies). Simultaneous gubernatorial, provincial legislative and mayoral/city council elections will be held in 11 of the country’s 23 provinces, including the province of Buenos Aires, which contains 39 percent of the Argentine population.
November 22 – Presidential Runoff Election
If on October 25 the first-place candidate does not win either more than 45 percent of the valid vote or at least 40 percent of the valid vote and at the same time finish more than 10 percent ahead of the second-place candidate, a runoff election between the top two candidates from the first round will be held on November 22. The candidate who receives the most votes on this date will be elected president for a four-year term and assume office on December 10."
I expect to see massive volatility in my local currency, the stock and bond markets in the coming months. Sadly it's not looking good at all.
On a technical basis, forecasting will be relatively easier once we clear the recent weekly low or high.
If price remains inside this range, then we might witness sideways action until the elections are out of the way (this is what I expect).
Regards,
Ivan.
Pampa holding.SA... holding for dear life?Two scenarios: Fifth wave has already developed, it failed to reach its target of 12.41 and is now going to retrace the whole movement (first target 5 usd area).. or the fifth way hasnt developed yet and we are just seeing wave 4 in progress, and wave 5 will hit its target at 12,50 & 13,79 for a last bang. For now, wave 4 holds 38% perfect retracement, so now its just a waiting game If price shows a significant impulse to the upside or crosses 12usd I would buy for a 12% pop, setting my stop loss at 11,39, for a 6% downside. If Price action doesnt hold 38% retracement i would target 62% & 76% (double top height down) as targets for a short or option trade.
In the fundamental side of things, pampa is an energy generation & distribution company, having a lot of trouble to make ends meet in the distribution side of things, since user fees are frozen by the goverment since 2001. There has been a fare/fee update in mid 2014, but it has not been enough to cover productive costs. Edenor, a pampa holding division company has entered in negative equity in 2014.
For now we keep a neutral position and wait.
