OIL, What's next?As the CPI numbers and the inflation numbers starts to slow and decrease, and banks are saying that 2023 inflation will drop even more.
The oil is facing more down moves.
The Saudi Arabia, needs a $75 per barrel to cover the government budget.
but what if the decrease production to keep prices high, will be enough to cover the budget ?!
In this chart, we are seeing too possible buys, with two possible scenarios.
the first buy at $75.00 per barrel and the second one at $50.00
Always manage your risk in trading be for you enter the market.
Regards.
Brentoil
Brent: Watch it burnWe're currently observing a downwards trend that should turn once the blue wave is completed. Thereupon, Brent should move above the $105.42 resistance into the turquoise target zone between $104.29 - $116.05. After hitting the target zone, Brent should turn and drop below the support at $83.61 directly into the green target zone between $77.10 - $42.16. After crossing the green zone, the green wave should be completed and turn out of the green zone to move above the $83.61 support. Since the anticipated downslope is surely not going to evolve as a straight line, we'll sketch the in-between-movements as the course comes down from the top.
BRENT OIL BUYThe price has been able to rise higher than the previous peak and this is one of the bullish signs. Price is likely to test the trend line, which I think can be crossed given the strength of the trend.
Or continue to correct after the test and move from the $87 support area to the downtrend line.
US OIL TRADING IDEAAs its clear from chart,
us oil has broken the blue down trend / bull flag and got a nice push up side,
As dollar index is in corrective mode and we can see some more pullback in dollar index,
We are looking oil as a long opportunity, any pullback around 90.70 -90.80, will be a long opportunity targeting 97.50 -97.80.
The idea will be considered as invalidated if it get backs inside to broken bull flag.
Economic Turmoil and Political Tensions Evoking Crude OilThe candlestick pattern at the lowest low is very probable to be the pivot point for the downward consolidation of oil. October also can be closed by a green candle after 4 months of drop. The political and economic conditions are making the pivot more valid at the moment.
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market.
The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs.
U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA.
The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage.
In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap.
Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels.
A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
CRUDE OIL CAN FURTHER TUMBLE BELOW $80Check out the trade plan for USTCBUSD today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you!
Oil faked a bullish breakout on the hourly minor trend formed and here we can clearly witness a failed breakout on the key level highlighted. This reversal is on the 4th impulse hinting us another minor trend to happen to the downside with respect to a bear flag breakout. Here I expect the price to revisit back another important low we have been moving close to or below $80 in the next few days.
WTI: Crude oil prices are impacted by a dimming demand outlook.Despite limiting its highest daily gains in a week, WTI crude oil remains in a flat trend. US government representatives have stated that they are prepared to release 15 million barrels of oil from SPR.
In contrast to repurchasing shares and paying dividends, according to Biden, oil firms should increase output and lower gasoline costs.
He said, “My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging,” Biden said. “You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.”
Since the beginning of the year, the White House has released approximately 165 million barrels of petroleum from the reserve, out of a total estimated to be over 180 million.
This means the demand is diminishing.
However, if price manages to trade, break and close above 86.55 the setups would be invalidated making the bulls take charge.
oil analysis inputs most welcomeoil on one hand is showing sighs of weakness and on the other hand is showing that there is a last leg of the wave pending if oil goes with the wave theory it can seriously ruin the stock market party it has also fallen from a rectangle pattern to the down side where it can fall towards levels of 70 but if the last leg of the wave theory is pending it may go towards 120 to 140 levels which can hurt especially the Indian economy and the rupee as oil production is being cut it supports higher levels as until there is more supply the prices are not going to fall. demand cannot die or slow as particularly talking about india economy needs oil move there goods these are uncertain times and in uncertain times there are maximum oppurtunities
hope to take the right trades
Brent tanking soonBrent is in a predominant falling wedge channel.
As I have mentioned this week, channels are always stronger than breakout patterns.
So we need the price to break below or above a certain level, before the price stops meandering...
The first target is to the top of the channel at $97 then down to $88 (channel).
If the price breaks below the channel then we could see a target of $67.65
I am bearish with Brent STILL.