Get started

CFD

Nasdaq Monthly Analysis - Possible Measured Move CorrectionThere may be a lot of choppy price action at the top of this trading range until price definitively starts to trend down to facilitate the correction or break out to make new highs. The reason for speculation that Nasdaq may be due for a correction is based on the current impulsive wave's similarity to the previous impulsive wave in both price and time. If the current impulsive wave has reached exhaustion it will be an approximate measured move of the previous impulsive wave with increase factors of: 1.022 increase in price range (10,365÷10,142) 1.046 increase in days to climax (637÷609) If the upcoming correction is also a measured move of the previous correction, using the calculated increase factors, the correction should be projected to occur over approximately 340 days (325×1.046) and decline by approximately 6,483 Points (6,344×1.022). This would bring price to 14,309 (20,792-6,483) around the date of June 16, 2025, which would also bring price back to the trend line. The projected correction, based the listed calculations, may retrace 77 Points below the 61.8% level (14,386-14,309). It is also worth mentioning that the previous correction retraced 76 Points below the 61.8% level (10,503-10,427). This difference in retracement below 61.8% is a factor increase of 1.013 (77÷76). On the monthly timeframe, technical indicators such as Stochastic and RSI show price as overbought.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by MartialChartsFX
6
Brent Oil Resistance Rejection IdeaDescription: Brent oil is approaching a key resistance level. This level previously acted as support, but after being broken, it has now turned into resistance. If the price revisits this area, there’s a high probability of rejection based on past price action. Trade Idea: Watch for the price to approach the resistance level. If there are signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns or declining momentum), this could be a good opportunity for a short position. Set a stop-loss slightly above the resistance level in case the price breaks through. Potential target: Previous support level.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by rebenga93
Gold Breakout and Retest StrategyRecent Breakout: Gold has already broken through a strong resistance level and moved significantly higher. Pullback Scenario: Now, I’m watching for a potential pullback where the price could retest the new support level, which was the previous resistance. Bounce Opportunity: If the price successfully retests and holds the new support, we could see a bounce, providing a good entry point for a long position. Confirmation: Wait for signs of bullish momentum or candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, hammer) at the support level to confirm the bounce before entering the trade. Risk Management: A stop-loss can be placed just below the new support to protect against a failed retest or further decline.
TVC:GOLDLong
by rebenga93
BTCUSD Daily Outlook - 2024/09/14General Overview: Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo): Across all timeframes, the Ichimoku Cloud shows a bearish sentiment, especially in the smaller timeframes (M1 to H1), with price action predominantly below the cloud. However, as you move into higher timeframes like H4 and W1, the price approaches the cloud, suggesting a potential medium-term bullish reversal or a phase of consolidation. The bearish cloud (Kumo) remains thick, indicating strong resistance overhead in many cases, especially on shorter timeframes. MACD: In most timeframes (especially up to H4), the MACD lines show consistent downward momentum with histogram bars extending into negative territory, signaling bearish momentum. However, in the larger timeframes (D1, W1), there is a slight flattening of the MACD, which could indicate that the selling pressure is slowing, and a reversal might be on the horizon. ADX and DMI: ADX levels across timeframes are showing mixed signals. In the shorter timeframes (M1 to M30), ADX shows moderate trend strength, suggesting short-term volatility. The longer timeframes (H1 and beyond) show weakening trend strength, as indicated by a declining ADX, pointing towards a lack of a clear strong directional movement and a potential transition phase. ATR (Average True Range): ATR values show increased volatility, particularly in the higher timeframes. This suggests that while there may be lower volatility in the shorter timeframes (M1 to M15), there is overall heightened market volatility, which could lead to larger price swings in the coming periods. RVI (Relative Vigor Index): The RVI is signaling bearish momentum across the board, with values remaining negative. This further aligns with the downward price action seen in the charts. Any potential bullish divergence should be closely monitored in the higher timeframes like H4 or D1. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support: 59300-59500 USD: This is a significant near-term support level observed across multiple timeframes, particularly in the M15 to H4 charts. A break below this level could lead to a retest of the lower support around 58500-58800 USD. 55000-55500 USD: In the longer timeframes (H4 and D1), this area represents a major historical support zone. If the bearish momentum persists and breaks through the near-term supports, this level could be revisited. Resistance: 60500-61000 USD: This region represents a strong resistance, particularly in the H1 to H4 charts. There are several rejections from this area, and the thick bearish Ichimoku cloud adds to the resistance strength. 62000-62500 USD: In the higher timeframes (D1, W1), this level acts as a critical long-term resistance, and breaking this could signal the beginning of a more sustained uptrend. Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment appears to be cautiously bearish with potential for consolidation or reversal in the mid to long term. The bearish trend is clearly dominant in the smaller timeframes, but in the longer timeframes, the indicators suggest that the bearish momentum could be losing steam. Any strong catalyst could lead to a breakout, either to the downside or upside, depending on whether key support or resistance levels are broken. Conclusion: Short-Term (M1 to H1): The market remains bearish, with limited bullish sentiment. A break below 59300 could lead to further downside. Mid to Long-Term (H4 to W1): The bearish momentum is slowing down, and a consolidation or bullish reversal is possible if price breaks through the 60500-61000 resistance. Traders should watch closely for signs of trend reversals or confirmation of a continued downtrend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by williamwklee
Gold Price Analysis: Watching Resistance and Support ZonesGold is currently trading between a strong resistance zone, where we’ve seen multiple rejections, and a key support level. The price has been bouncing between these areas. If we see the price drop back to the smaller support, there’s potential for a bounce. It will be crucial to observe how buyers respond at this level to determine the next move. If buyers show strength, a rebound could occur; otherwise, we might see further declines. Monitoring price action at these critical levels will be key for future trades.
TVC:GOLD
by rebenga93
BTCUSD Daily Outlook - 2024/09/11Trend Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud: The price action is frequently interacting with the Ichimoku cloud, indicating periods of consolidation, as well as potential trend reversals. In shorter timeframes, the price is often within or below the cloud, signaling bearish tendencies, while longer timeframes (D1, W1) show some potential support from the cloud. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI values across multiple timeframes are mixed but largely show the asset in a neutral or slightly oversold state. The lower timeframes (M1, M5) are nearing oversold regions, which might suggest a short-term buying opportunity. In higher timeframes (H1, H4), the RSI is more neutral but trending towards bearish momentum. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows bearish momentum across most timeframes. There’s some divergence in longer timeframes indicating slowing bearish pressure, but lower timeframes have stronger bearish signals, suggesting potential short-term downside. ADX (Average Directional Index): The ADX values vary, but the lower timeframes show increasing directional strength. This suggests that while the trend is not decisively strong in higher timeframes, lower timeframes show more pronounced trend movement, likely bearish. ATR (Average True Range): Volatility is evident across the charts, especially in the shorter timeframes. Higher ATR values in the larger timeframes show that the asset is experiencing wider price swings, which suggests that any reversal or continuation in trend may happen with significant volatility. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: Short-Term: Around $56,400–$57,000 as shown by price bouncing off this level multiple times across different timeframes. Medium-Term: $55,200–$55,500, which is more apparent in the higher timeframes like H4 and D1. Long-Term: $52,000–$53,500, evident from the weekly chart (W1), which shows this level as a historical support zone. Resistance Levels: Short-Term: $57,800–$58,200 is a notable short-term resistance level that BTC/USD has struggled to break above in smaller timeframes. Medium-Term: $58,900–$59,100 shows as a significant barrier on the daily (D1) and H4 charts. Long-Term: $60,000+ could act as a psychological barrier as well as technical resistance seen from past movements on higher timeframes (W1). Conclusion: BTC/USD is currently facing downward pressure across multiple timeframes, but short-term oversold conditions could present a rebound opportunity. It’s crucial to watch the support levels around $56,400 for short-term moves and $55,200 for medium-term market dynamics. Bearish momentum might persist unless there is a clear break above the resistance levels in the $58,200–$58,900 range. Any upward breakout could see BTC attempting to challenge the $60,000 mark in the longer term.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by williamwklee
4
Understanding Volume Oscillator and Its RoleUnderstanding Volume Oscillator and Its Role in Technical Analysis Navigating the complex terrain of trading requires a grasp of various technical analysis tools. One such tool is the Volume Oscillator, a potent indicator that offers insight into market trends and their strength. This article provides a comprehensive look at this tool, its interpretation, principles, and limitations. What Is the Volume Oscillator? The Volume Oscillator is a vital tool in technical analysis, utilising two moving averages of trading volume to generate signals about the strength and weaknesses of trends. Unlike price oscillators which focus primarily on the direction and momentum of price movements, this tool delves into the undercurrents of the market. Volume, in the context of financial markets, is the number of asset units traded during a given period. As such, it is a measure of market activity. So what does a Volume Oscillator do? This indicator goes a step further by comparing short-term and long-term buying and selling activity flow to help traders identify potential reversals, breakouts, and other market events. However, it's important to note that this tool doesn't signify bullish or bearish behaviour but rather indicates whether a move has supporting volume. Calculating the Volume Oscillator Technical Indicator The calculation of the Volume Oscillator is straightforward. It begins with selecting two lengths of moving averages, often referred to as the short and long periods. The default Volume Oscillator settings used are 5 and 20, but these can be adjusted as per your trading needs. The indicator is then calculated using the formula: * 100. This calculation produces a percentage that oscillates above and below zero. If you’d like to practise your Volume Oscillator skills, you can use FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started within minutes. Principles of Volume Analysis The principles of volume analysis are integral to understanding and interpreting this indicator. These principles encompass two primary signals: signs of strength and signs of weakness in the prevailing trend. A sign of strength is identified when the price of an asset moves concurrently with a rise in buying or selling activity. This suggests that the prevailing price movement – whether upwards or downwards – has solid support from traders, leading to a stronger confirmation. Hence, when the fast volume moving average is above the slow volume moving average, the indicator is above the zero line, indicating a stronger market direction. Conversely, a sign of weakness is indicated when the price movement is not supported by strong activity. This means that the price is increasing or decreasing while trading activity is declining. In such a case, the Volume Oscillator is below the zero line, implying a potential lack of conviction in the current price direction, thereby signalling a potential reversal or slowdown. Volume Oscillator Interpretation This tool’s interpretation is primarily based on its trend direction in relation to the zero line. When trending upward and above the zero line, it indicates growing conviction in the current price movement, whatever its direction. Conversely, a downward trend above the zero line suggests diminishing confidence in the ongoing price action. Below the zero line, an upward trend in the oscillator points to a potential shift in momentum, indicating that the conviction in the current price direction might be returning, while a downward trend implies that the uncertainty in the market's direction is intensifying. It can also provide divergence signals, which occur when its direction deviates from the price movement direction. For instance, if prices reach new highs while the indicator fails to achieve new highs, it may suggest a weakening upward price trend, potentially heralding a downturn. Conversely, if prices hit new lows and the tool does not follow suit, it could be a sign of an impending upward reversal. Limitations Despite its usefulness, this indicator is not infallible and has certain limitations. Primarily, it may produce false signals in periods of low trading activity or in thinly traded assets where the market participation data can be sporadic. Moreover, while it is excellent at confirming price movements, it may be less effective at predicting reversals, particularly in highly volatile markets. The Bottom Line By gauging the intensity behind trends, the Volume Oscillator adds a depth dimension to market analysis. While it has its limitations, its ability to identify the strength of price movements and potential reversals makes it a beneficial part of any trader's toolkit. If you would like to put your Volume Oscillator knowledge into action, you can open an FXOpen account. Once you do, you will access lightning-fast execution speed and competitive trading costs. Happy trading! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
U.S. Futures Plunge on Recession Fears (USNAS100)U.S. Futures Plunge Nearly 4% Amid Recession Fears and Global Market Sell-Off 1. Nasdaq Technical Analysis: Last week, the Nasdaq saw a decline of approximately 10.5% due to investor fears of a recession and geopolitical tensions. Outlook: The bearish trend is expected to continue towards 17,360 and 17,020 as long as the price remains below 17,875. Bullish Scenario: A reversal is anticipated if the price rises above 17,875 and closes a 4-hour candle above this level, targeting 18,150 and 18,430. Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 17,775, it is likely to drop to 17,360 and 17,000, potentially breaking 16,990 to reach as low as 16,420. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 17750 - Resistance Levels: 17870, 18140, 18430 - Support Levels: 17370, 17050, 16500 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 16,990 and the resistance at 17,880. -------- 2. U.S. Futures Plunge as Recession Fears Grip Investors U.S. stock index futures tumbled on Monday, with Nasdaq futures falling nearly 4%, as recession fears spread through global markets. The stock markets across Asia and Europe experienced significant declines, and bond yields fell as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. Many are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates quickly to stimulate growth. All megacap and growth stocks, which had been the main drivers of the indexes reaching record highs earlier this year, dropped sharply in premarket trading. -------- Previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
GBPUSD - Following The Trend!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈GBPUSD has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in green. Currently, GBPUSD is undergoing a correction phase. Moreover, it is retesting massive demand zone in blue. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted green circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower green trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #GBPUSD approaches the green circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18600 / 18900 bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. comment: Big down, bigger up. Again. High was high enough to qualify as another double top but the high also undershot the bull wedge resistance line. Bulls have not been able to print more then 3 consecutive bull bars since May. Why would they now? Bulls bought dips and I doubt they want to buy above 18800 all of a sudden. Odds favor the bears to trade to the bull channel support around 18500 over the next 1-2 days. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Above is from last Sunday and still valid. As long as bulls trade above the daily 20ema and inside the bull channel/exp triangle/wedge (yes all apply), it’s bullish. Problem with the bull case is, do you really want to buy above 18800? Market knows only rejections above this price so no matter how you put it, new longs here are bad. Can you buy intraday dips at support for scalps? Absolutely. Invalidation is below 18360. bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week. Invalidation is above 18900. Market was rejected twice here on Friday and reversed. Bears do not want to see the market testing that price again or they will probably give up. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. → Last Sunday we traded 18666 and now we are at 18857. High of the week was 18927 and the low was 18362. Outlook was ok. I said we test back down and we did even 100 points lower than I thought. Also said bulls were in control above all ema. I absolutely did not think bulls can do 18900+ again but here we are. short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here so I’m not into guessing. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Chart update: Nope.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds