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Chinese Yuan Price Action Setting Up For a Potential CollapseWe have a huge Void below us and the Yuan has Rallied away from this Void before, but it appears to now be making a Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on Both the RSI and MACD; If the Yuan Breaks Below the B point of this Potential Crab BAMM which also happens to be The Confirmation Line of what would then also be a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern, we will very likely then see Downwards Acceleration Towards the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Below to Complete the Harmonic Pattern
Short
by RizeSenpai
2
Fueling Opportunities: Oil Falls 1% amidst Strong USDToday, we dive into the recent developments that have caused oil prices to dip by 1%. Brace yourselves as we uncover the potential opportunities in this volatile landscape. With a strong US dollar and weak China economic data playing their part, now is the time to take action and seize the moment! The Mighty Dollar: China's Economic Woes: Call-to-Action: Seize the Moment, Buy into Oil! Now, more than ever, it's crucial to capitalize on the current market conditions. Here's your call to action: buy into oil! With prices experiencing a temporary dip, it's the perfect time to invest in this valuable commodity. Here are a few reasons why: Long-Term Growth Potential Diversification and Hedging Technological Advancements Conclusion: Traders, the time is ripe to take action and buy into oil! Embrace the excitement and potential of navigating the twists and turns of the market. Remember, fortune favors the bold, and by seizing the moment, you position yourself for success. So, gear up, stay informed, and move in this thrilling world of oil trading! Disclaimer: Trading involves risks, and it's essential to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
FX:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
China A50 holds its ground despite weak sentimentAU wages came in weak, The RBA hinted that they think they're done tightening in the minutes, The PBOC cut rates (again) and a slew of data from China once again misses the mark. And all in a 30-minute period! I think we’re fast approaching a phase where bets will be on for another round of stimulus. The China A50 is holding its ground above 12,600 and AUD/USD has managed to hold above yesterday’s YTD low despite the weak data. There’s a floor under these prices, and any rumours of stimulus could potentially light the bullish match for these markets to bounce. Economic data from China continues to disappoint, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data all missing the mark today. This follows on from disappointing trade figures for Q3 with imports and exports contracting at a much faster pace than feared, and loan demand falling to its lowest level since 2009. Yet somehow, the China A50 is still holding above the 12,400 base it formed in Q2 (despite negative headlines) before falling on news of stimulus. Are we about to witness a similar scenario? Perhaps. The PBOC announced that they have cut rates for a second month in three, a move not expected by the majority of economists. But it does suggest there is some panic, and with that comes hopes of more stimulus. If a market can’t go lower on bad news, it may not take much ‘good’ news to help it rally. A bullish hammer formed on the daily chart on Monday and prices are holding above its low despite the negative sentiment. We therefore see the potential for a rally to at least 13k, either on hopes of stimulus (or confirmation of it).
FOREXCOM:CHINA50Long
by CityIndex
CNH: Hedging Currency Risk amid Heightened UncertaintiesCME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ) Even though the Chinese Yuan is not a component in the US Dollar Index, Dollar-Yuan exchange rate generally tracks the dollar index. If dollar gains in value, most foreign currencies depreciate against it, yuan included. When dollar is weakened, the opposite holds true. Foreign currencies appreciate relative to dollar. However, this year the two trends diverged prominently. Dollar index was quoted 103.2 on Monday, down 0.8% year-to-date. Meanwhile, dollar/yuan rate moved up 5.2% to 7.26. A higher price quote means that yuan depreciated against the dollar. In conventional thinking, yuan should have risen when dollar declined. The reversal of the trend could signal a major technical breakout down the road. In the past ten years, the Yuan has been trading in the range of 6.0 and 7.3. looking back in early 2000s, the official exchange rate used to be set at a narrow band around 8.28. Exchange Rate Key Driver: Interest Rate Parity Let’s revisit a basic concept in economics. The interest rate parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. In plain English: An investor has the options of investing in either dollar or yuan. With higher interest rates, dollar asset will produce a higher return. To make yuan more attractive, the investor would need to get more yuan per dollar. Therefore, yuan will depreciate. This is the logic behind the IRP. It is called the Law of One Price. Since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022, the Fed Funds rate has risen 525 basis points in the following 17 months. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 15 basis points, from 3.70% to 3.55%. • The US-China interest rate spread has widened by 540 basis points. • If the investor held dollar denominated asset, his return would be 7.65% higher than someone holding the same asset denominated in yuan (=5.40% x (17/12) years). • Meanwhile, the exchange rate went from 6.39 to 7.26, a 12.0% Yuan depreciation. In this example, the IRP explains 64% of the total variation of Dollar/Yuan exchange rate. It is remarkable that fundamental economic theory works so well in the real world. Relative Stock Market Performance Another key factor driving capital flows in and out of China is the performance of its stock market relative to that of the global market. China’s stock market had a good start this year. The hope of economic recovery pushed the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index up by 9%. However, economic data deteriorated markedly in the second quarter, which helped erase most of the gain. • As of Monday, the SSE produced a meager 1.8% return YTD. • For a comparison, the S&P was up 15.8% while the Nasdaq gained 37.8% YTD. Relative Strength in the Economy While interest rate spread and stock market performance drive the exchange rate trend in the short- to medium-term, the long-term value of one country’s currency is determined by the strength of its economy. The US economy has so far managed to avoid a hard landing: • Solid job market (unemployment rate below 4%); • Strong GDP growth (the economy expanded from Q1 to Q2); • Inflation getting under control (headline CPI around 3%); • A banking crisis is contained (only a handful of bank failures); • The debt ceiling crisis is resolved (new bill suspected the debt ceiling until 2025). This year, China’s economic engine appeared to have lost steam. • GDP growth slowed dramatically after a brief spike in Q1; • Export declined by double digits; • A gigantic housing market crisis is brewing to the boiling point; • Debt crisis with provincial and local governments, many are technically bankrupt; • High unemployment rates (youth unemployment exceeding 20%); • Deflation discourages business activities and put further pressure on the economy. Could the second largest economy in the world weather all the headwinds? This heightened risk profile warrants the need to proactively deploy risk management strategies. Hedging for Currency Exposure Amid Rising Risk Outlooks US-China relations remains the top geopolitical risk amid heightened uncertainties. In recent years, the relations have hit the lowest point since President Richard Nixon visited China in 1972. While China now accounts for a smaller share of the US international trade, in 2022, both U.S. exports to China and imports from China continued to grow, according to the Bank of International Settlement data. • U.S. exports totaled $153.8bn, an increase of 1.6% ($2.4bn) from 2021; • U.S. imports from China totaled $536.8bn, an increase of 6.3% ($31.8bn); • And the trade deficit with China was $382.9bn, an increase of 8.3% of ($29.4bn). U.S. importers, exporters, and US companies operating in China all face significant risks when the exchange rate is so volatile. Some of the cost may be in one currency, while the revenue is in another. Hedging net currency exposure is key to locking in profit. Where is the Dollar/Yuan Exchange Rate Heading? In the previous sections, I highlighted the key drivers in the US/China currency exchange rate: relative interest rates; relative stock market performance; relative economic strength; and the state of the US-China relations. If things are moving unfavorably for China, I could see the yuan breaking out of the recent range and going above 7.50. There are a lot of moving parts affecting the outcome. CME Offshore RMB (CNH) is a futures contract on the Dollar/Yuan exchange rate. It has a notional value of $100,000 and is quoted as the number of Yuan per $1. In a hypothetical case, let’s imagine that a commercial firm expects to receive 10 million yuan in six months. Should the exchange rate go from 7.26 to 7.60, the expected receipt in dollar terms would decline from $1.38M to $1.31M, down $70K or -4.7%. The firm could hedge this exposure by buying 14 CNH contracts. The aggregate notional value is $1.4 million, matching over 10 million yuan at current market price. When yuan depreciates, futures price would go up as each dollar is getting more yuan. Therefore, when the firm loses money in business operation due to yuan depreciation, currency futures hedging would compensate for the losses. Holding 1 CNH contract requires $21100 in minimum margin. If the exchange rate moves by 1 tick, or $0.0001, the futures account would gain or lose 10 Yuan. A smaller firm could consider Micro RMB futures (MNH). It is 1/10 of the standard size CNH contract with a $10K notional. Margin requirement is 1/10 of the original, at $2110. Happy Trading! Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
MACRO MONDAY 7 - CHINA DEFLATIONMacro Monday (7) - Advance Release China Inflation Rate – $CNIRRY China entered into deflationary territory in July 2023 and this is being shared by many with an extremely negative outlook for markets. I believe this chart outlines a very different perspective that leans more neutral than cautionary whilst also providing a more usable framework in the event of a recession scenario playing out. 🔴The last 3 global recessions commenced during China's peak inflationary periods, not during deflationary periods. This is the first clear indication from the chart (red circles). 🔵The last 3 periods of deflation in China signaled the forming of a market bottom in 2000 (over 14 months), thee market bottom in 2008 and resulted in positive S&P500 price action in 2020 (blue areas). Two out of three times China Deflation has been immediately positive for markets. ⚠️The most contentious period of deflation can be assigned to the 2000 Dot Com crash. The commencement of this 14 month period of deflation from October 2001 did not immediately mark the bottom. Instead the S&P500 made a further c.35% decline to gradually form its bottom over those 14 months ending in December 2002. If this was to repeat we could be looking at Sept 2024 as a possible market bottom and a 35% decline would be $2.9k for the S&P....👀 This scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI boom to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? Its hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of QE and Fiscal Deficit we have to keep an open mind as we froth in record levels of liquidity. What is useful about this chart is that if a 2000 Dot Com crash scenario was to play out from hereon, we could use China’s move back into inflationary territory (above 0% line) as a possible confirmation of a market bottom/reversal as was the case in Dec 2002. What day is it? 🤣🤣🤣 I released this early brief Macro Monday as I seen this topic repeatedly in my feed today and wanted to share the perspective as soon as possible. There is a strong possibility of a 2nd alternative Macro Monday Chart on Monday 14th. Hope to see you there! As always I hope the chart offers perspective and utility PUKA
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by PukaCharts
LI Auto Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold LI when they reduced the delivery outlook: Or on this Earnings Release: Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-5-17, for a premium of approximately $0.60. I think there is still some upside momentum left, followed by a big selloff by the end of the year. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:LIShort
by TopgOptions
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
JD is it a safe short or an early reversal?JD on the 1H chart has been in a solid downtrend worthy of shorting. However, the zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram and a red to green there. The signal has curled. This looks like subtle divergence. Price is in the area of the mean anchored black VWAP lines. The mass index indicator is double tapping the reversal zone. So, what you think? Is there more downside or instead is JD going to bounce and move up? Please offer your comment !
NASDAQ:JDLong
by AwesomeAvani
NIO | Solid Price Action At The Current BottomHi, Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies. Nio launched the first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold over 122,000 EVs in 2022, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market. Technically NIO looks attractive; I like the way it found a support level from my previous call(s) at TradingView. I like the previous monthly close and if somebody is interested in it then I can give a technical confirmation. Technically it is solid but you have to consider fundamental risks to invest in China and etc. Technically haven't seen such a price action that can be attractive for me on the NIO chart. I cannot say that it is the best but first time, since the all-time high, it looks solid and I would like to share it - odds should be in our favor ;) NIO price got a rejection upwards from the minor horizontal area, there was also the psychological number of $10 and a gap fill from 2020. These criteria held it, got a rejection, and now in the last week it found a great volume and it brought the price to another obstacle which is around $15. So a little pullback was expected. A strong area around $15 can act, and actually has already acted, as a solid resistance level. Still, I'm waiting for that retest because we have some short-term new higher highs, a strong bullish weekly candle close above the Weekly Moving Average of 50 (orange line). * Considering the recent price action then we should see the retest and an optimal buying zone should stay between $9.5 to $12.5 * First targets updated on the chart room Good luck!
NYSE:NIOLong
by VaidoVeek
XPeng is the future of CarsXPeng is one of the biggest Electric Car Brands in China. The Chinese Government announced that it wants to support Clean Energy and Electric Cars. Also Volkswagen published a Cooperation with XPeng to produce Cars together. This is a Sign, that the European Car Producers know that China is ahead of them. XPeng has low Production Costs and a Quality that is getting as good as in Europe. However, their last Quarter Results were negative and the Quarter Results that will be published on August 18th will probably be negative , too. The Stock has risen 200% in one Month and is overbought . Since June XPeng is in a Rising Broadening Wedge that might breaks out to the Downside , because this Pattern is bearish and the Stock is way to overbought. The Target of the Pattern is 8 Dollars, but I think 10-12 Dollars are more realistic. I will update you when a Breakout happens! Have nice Day!
NYSE:XPEVShort
by HenrikDaCrypto
Aussie Dollar: Headwinds AheadAUD is a commodity currency. Australia’s resources rich economy is heavily influenced by commodity trade, particularly with China. When China sneezes, the AUD catches cold. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s rate hiking cycle approaching an end plus China’s economic recovery remaining anaemic, the AUD is likely to weaken further in the short term. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro AUD/USD futures to gain from a weakening Australian Dollar with an entry at 0.6584 combined with a target exit at 0.6300 hedged by a stop loss of 0.6747 delivering a reward to risk ratio of 1.75x. RBA HAS PAUSED ITS INFLATION FIGHT Fending off a stubborn inflationary environment, the RBA was quick to follow the Fed’s path in raising its lending rates to cool the economy. While not as aggressive as the Fed, the RBA held its rates at elevated levels. Inflation in Australia has eased from its peak but hovers above those in the US. The RBA expects inflation to abate gradually to target levels of 2% by mid-2025. With inflation trending lower and GDP softening, the RBA rate hiking cycle is likely at its apex. The RBA did not hike rates at its last two meetings. Much like other central banks, the RBA will be guided by macroeconomic data in shaping the path ahead for interest rates. Thus far, economic data supports the case for no further rate hikes. Consumer spending and GDP growth has slowed over the last two quarters. Barring an unexpected reversal, the rates are at their peak. Sharp retail slowdown in June also vindicates RBA’s case for pause. Still, the odds of further rate hikes are non-zero. The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone stating that further tightening may be warranted. Previously, even though RBA had opted for a pause in April, scorching inflation numbers forced the central bank to hike rates in May & June. RBA’s next policy meeting is on September 5th and until then, the current bearish sentiment is likely to prevail. If RBA opts to continue with the rate pause, AUD is likely to weaken further. US DEBT DOWNGRADES AND THE DOLLAR SMILE Fitch, a leading ratings agency, recently downgraded US treasury debt. The downgrade has led to limited impact on treasury yields or the USD. Instead, the downgrade led to reduced appetite for risk assets and increased flow into the safety of the US Dollar. This is the classic dollar smile phenomenon at play. The dollar smile helps explain the tendency of USD to shine when the US economy is not only strongly outperforming, but also when it faces turbulence. This bodes negatively for the AUD which is a volatile currency as it takes cues from global commodities. Reduction in risk appetite leads to further weakening in the AUD. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE ECONOMIC RECOVERY China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Australia is a resource rich nation. Substantial portion of its resources are exported to China. Iron Ore, Copper, and Natural Gas top the list. Consequently, a slowdown in China adversely impacts the Australian Dollar. China’s post-COVID recovery has been underwhelming. Growth is weaker than expected and domestic consumption remains fragile. Though there are signals that these may rebound, the process will be slow which suggests there will be limited demand from China for Australian commodities in the near term. Inadequate Stimulus China has not been able to rely on external demand for its goods to support its recovery. This has put further pressure on stimulating domestic demand. Last week, Chinese officials announced stimulus measures which have fallen short of expectations. Officials have indicated further stimulus, but details remain scant and timeline vague. Given that, Chinese economic recovery is likely to be drawn out. Feeble Manufacturing Activity Manufacturing forms the backbone of the Chinese economy. Activity in the sector had been shrinking since February. However, the latest PMI data points to a slow reversal in this trend. Inventory levels improved suggesting that de-stocking is ending. However, PMI at 49.3 still points to shrinking manufacturing activity which may take several months to recover as global demand remains pale. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNALS SIGNIFICANT NEAR-TERM BEARISHNESS Aggregate Put/Call ratio of CME Options on AUD futures stands at 1.74 indicating a clear bearish sentiment heavily weighted towards the front of the curve. Analysing ratio across expiries, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish in the near term with signs of bullishness in Q4. Meanwhile, CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report shows that asset managers are positioned net short on the AUD and increased net short positioning by ~9000 contracts (~21%) last week. Conversely, leveraged funds have switched their net short positioning to net long last week. Overall, COT points to a bearish sentiment. TRADE SETUP With Australian interest rates at their peak and Chinese economic recovery expected to be drawn out, investors can gain from the near-term weakening in the AUD using a short position in CME’s Micro AUD/USD futures expiring in September. CME Micro AUD/USD Futures have a margin requirement of just USD 170 (as of August 7th) and provides exposure to 10,000 AUD. Every pip delivers a P&L of USD 1. • Entry: 0.6584 • Target: 0.6300 • Stop Loss: 0.6747 • Profit at Target: USD 284 (284 pips * USD 1 = USD 284) • Loss at Stop: USD 163 (163 pips * USD 1 = USD 163) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.75x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
BABA BULLISH SCENARIOAlibaba has decided not to join the share buyback of its fintech arm, Ant Group. Ant Group remains an important partner, and Alibaba wants to maintain its shareholding. The buyback was initiated following Beijing's crackdown on web giants, with Ant Group receiving a substantial fine. Alibaba's stock value in Ant Group remains lower than in 2020 when an IPO was canceled. Speculation arises about a potential IPO retry, but significant changes have occurred since then, including Alibaba's split into six companies and a reshuffling of its executive leadership. Earnings anticipations set BABA in a good direction. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:BABALong
by legacyFXofficial
XPEV collaborating with VW = China EV on fire !XPEV is trending up. It is Chinese in the biggest EV market on the planet. No import duties. Low-interest rates on debt and consumer auto loans here as the government is doing the opposite as the US fed. Now the collaboration with VW which has legacy excellence in manufacturing with XPEV whose forte may be technology and autonomous driving innovation. On the 2H chart, the stock price jumped fast and hard on the news catalyst. The MACD launched signals over the histogram and the Volume Price Trend screamed higher. This all spells momentum. While there is a risk of a downfall reversal and drop as they saying goes make hay while the sun shines. There may be shadows of short selling squeezing here. Time will tell. For sure being late to the party is sometimes a waste of time. The real show will be watching XPEV/ VW competing with both NIO and TSLA in China. To the victor goes the spoils. Hold on as the ride will have some bumps.
NYSE:XPEVLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Stock from China with upside potential of up to 200% 📈📱 Buy Baozun Ticker: NASDAQ:BZUN Buy by: 5$ Goals: $8.3; $11.5; $15.4. Potential return per trade: up to 200% Volume per trade: up to 1.5-2% of the portfolio This deal should be taken for medium term. The paper is quite volatile, so it makes no sense to put stops, we go in a small volume. ⚠️Risk level: high Baozun is a young IT company that provides e-commerce services. Average annual revenue growth is 27%, debt/equity is a comfortable 37%. Forward P/e ~ 8.3 , P/s ~ 0.2. From its peak, the stock fell by -92%, and our team believes that all the negative is already included in the price and the security is unlikely to fail significantly lower. According to technical analysis, the stock shows the first attempts at a medium-term reversal. At the level of $3.5, a support line was formed, and securities were paid off from this level on an increased volume. Shares are below the 200-day moving average (negative). RSI - locally overbought on D1. But if you want to find more ideas in great companies with high growth potential, welcome to the profile 🎩
NASDAQ:BZUNLong
by Dorado_Crypto
Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you: a) Get rich b) Quick Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women. This is the modern human's dream, right? And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps. There really is more to aim for in life. Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?). In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland. What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates. Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin. The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland. And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before. Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China. Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing. So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon? Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying. Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump. It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs. And then it retraced. That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company. But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts: 31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish. And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred. I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high. This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future. Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back. So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings. But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after. Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average. But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity. The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap And SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent. And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc. What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly. So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
NYSE:RTXLong
by LordWrymouth
1
CHINA50 CN50 Short Bears Remain in ControLike Hong Kong 50(See the Idea here bearish start to the week, with hawkish central banks and growth fears continue weighing on investor sentiment ahead of a busy week. The theme remained the same, with investor jitters over the economic outlook weighing on investor sentiment. There were no economic indicators from the region to change the mood. Market Overview It was a bearish morning session for the Asian markets. The ASX 200 led the way down, with the Hang Seng and the Nikkei also struggling. The Asian equity markets tracked the US equity markets into the red, with fears of central banks sending the global economy into a recession weighing. Hawkish Fed Chair Powell testimony continued to resonate this morning. Last week’s Bank of England 50-basis point interest rate hike was a reminder of central bank commitments to tame inflation. Despite softer US private sector PMI numbers on Friday, the markets are still betting on a Fed 25-basis point interest rate hike in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July Fed rate hike stood at 71.9% versus 74.4% one week ago. Significantly, the chances of the Fed lifting rates to 5.75% in September stood at 11.5%, up from 8.9% one week earlier. Bank stocks also had a mixed morning. HSBC Holdings PLC and The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (HK:1398) saw losses of 0.33% and 0.24%, respectively, while China Construction Bank (HK: 0939) rose by 0.40%. Strategy Bearish Short RSI confirming permanent trend continuation Bulltraps can be used to sell more and stronger Trendlines shold be used in 2 ways: bearish breakout of the trendlines should be sed to new bearish enries or position sizing only. Bullish breakouts should be used as profit taking or trading the 2nd wave only. Bullish breakouts are often traps.
CAPITALCOM:CN50Short
by DaveBrascoFX
1
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long HedgeAt present, the US equities markets are at a critical inflection point, especially tech. We're still in the bear side of a correction in an extremely major bull market impulse fuelled by Party Central's COVID stimulus programs, and yet flirting with all time highs. Sometimes markets top without a blow off. Nasdaq's daily chart, above, shows price raided the 16,000 psychological level and the January 2022 pivot that ended the bull market. This is really significant in and of itself, but even more significant in that the 3% rejection thus far indicates that tech *may* have truly topped already. In my recent call on NVIDIA, some people correctly criticized that I have the problem of being bearish when a stock is clearly bullish. I have thought about this quite a bit and think the criticism is fair. With NVIDIA, I believe the stock has either topped or will top before/at $500 in a coming impulse. However, if one had have just gone long on the dips from low $400s to the $480 mark, they could have financed a freeroll "Short God From The Top" dream trade with potentially huge upside. And that brings us to Taiwan Semiconductor, a company that I believe is a clear long on all time frames and has several significant advantages: 1. It's Taiwan's gemstone and thus highly relevant to the geopolitical concerns I will outline below 2. Producer of much of the world's most advanced chips 3. Market cap still under $500 billion (Thus, room to 2 or 3x in the future) 4. Is not a component of the Nasdaq, the SPX, the Dow, or the Russell, and thus can impulse long even if the equities market corrects 5. Accounts for only 3.4% of the index the SOXX/SOXL/SOXS ETFs underlie, and thus can impulse long even if the semiconductor industry corrects sharply 6. Washington is banning NVIDIA and ASML from selling to China, but never mentions TSM 7. If TSM pulls out the "AI" marketing card with a new offering, watch out for fire. In previous posts I have mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party is about to fall. While people may find that unbelievable or too good to be true, it's worth noting that when the USSR was brought down by Gorbachev and friends on Christmas Day 1992, nobody believed it was possible then either. Those of us who are old enough to remember know you woke up one day to see it all over the news and nobody knew how it would happen. Many entities are considering how to take control of China and its 5,000 year old culture, history, natural resources, and land when the Party falls. The International Rules Based Order wants China for its own reasons, and the reason "Washington" has made itself so close to Taiwan isn't because Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan (The CCP is too weak after so many people died from Wuhan Pneumonia), but because the IRBO intends to use The Republic of China to replace the Communist Party for its own ends. The ultimate purpose is to install genuine communism (note the CCP only still practices socialism according to its own dogma) worldwide via panopticon social credit systems and central bank digital currencies. If you want a future you and your family can live in, you want our traditions, imparted by God, and not this junk imparted by Karl Marx and the specters that belied him. I've mentioned before that Xi, an ostensible Chinese nationalist, has the option of weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the 100 million practitioners of the Falun Gong/Falun Dafa spiritual cultivation practice by the faction of his predecessor Jiang Zemin and the CCP in order to ensnare the IRBO and its banking cartel. However, all of the world's critical pieces (Yellen, Musk, Kissinger, Dimon) visiting Beijing "for talks" combining with a recent significant strengthening of the yuan and a potential recovery of China tech stocks indicates that the IRBO is now onside with the Xi administration. Which means that Xi may have sold out China and the future in a Faustian Pact with the IRBO in order to maintain his power, because he's too much of an idiot to throw away the CCP, return to China's 5,000 years of dynasties, and enter the future. Either way, once there's some kind of news cycle about "Taiwan" (just go look at all the war clamoring that appeared this month in The Economist et al), TSM can moon no matter what the rest of the equities market does, and counts as an excellent long hedge during catastrophe. I can only say that if you go long, especially significantly long, on anything right now, you really ought to be hedging volatility long while the VIX is maintaining a 13-handle. So here's the trade. TSM dumped some 6% on earnings under $98, which is a hell of a dip to buy. It's a dip to buy because daily price action on the way up stopped just short of the curiously-numbered $111.11 (the Chinese are extremely numerological/superstitious), which naturally makes this figure a target for a retrace It's only that on the hourly, TSM doesn't show any signs of having bottomed beyond not making a lower low on the first day. But with the biggest FOMC of the year on Wednesday, July 26 (big hike possible, next meeting not until Q3 end September 20), longing today may have been too early. But not too early by much. Arguably only 3%. The most bullish continuation for TSM would be to maintain a "higher low" formation, protecting the wick of the June low at $94.25. Upside targets are immediately $113+ (Masonry, roar?) and $130 (Masonry, rawr!) if bearish. If all things Taiwan become memefied like artificial intelligence did because of what's going on in China, then there's little to stop TSM from becoming a $1 Trillion market cap company like NVIDIA et al, which would actually mean upside over $200 is in the cards through the 2024 Presidential Election. But mankind's best laid plans are merely those of mice. This race is like bacteria and this planet is little more than a speck of dust when viewed from higher places in the enormous and boundless Cosmos we currently sit in. What the Cosmos looks at is a race, a planet, and an individual's moral standard and spiritual realm. Thus, the more calamity is on deck the more critical it is to take good care of your family and friends and use the time that we all have left before the world changes forever to make up for the things from the past that have been done wrong, when they should have been done well. Take good care of yourselves.
NYSE:TSMLong
by LordWrymouth
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China is attractive for investment again! Alibaba Ticker: HKEX:9988 or NYSE:BABA Entry price: 89 HGS$ Short term target: $120 Medium term target: $171 Long term target: $205 Potential return per trade: up to 125% Volume per trade: up to 3-4% of the portfolio 🛡 It is better to hold this stock for the medium term, and use the drawdown to increase the position. ❗️Risk Level: Medium Alibaba shares have been under pressure since November 2020. During this period, the shares fell -72% from the maximum, although the company itself has not lost its profitability and still has a significant market share in the Chinese market. The Chinese government made a big contribution to the fall, which strangled the company with fines and did not allow an IPO. But now this negative has come to naught and now the road up is open for the stock 📈 According to technical analysis, the stock gives the first signals for a medium-term trend reversal. Now the paper is at the border of the long-term ascending channel. If it breaks through, we can expect a fairly fast and impulsive growth, which should not stagnate, but rather gain strength ⚡️ But if you want to find more ideas in great companies with high growth potential, welcome to the profile 🎩
NYSE:BABALong
by Dorado_Crypto
3
Copper Conundrum: Diverging Indicators Point to More DownsideThe last time we looked at copper was last October, and the trade played out nicely in our favor. Much has happened since then and we think another opportunity lies on the horizon now. Revisiting the same analysis now we observe the following… China, being the largest copper buyer, its currency pair CNHUSD traditionally shares a high correlation with copper. However, a divergence has emerged since May 2023. Moreover, copper's wide usage in manufacturing - from batteries to appliances and industrial machinery - makes China's import and export figures a good indicator of global economic health. These figures currently paint a gloomy picture, with YOY Exports & Imports pointing lower. Again, we notice a divergence between copper prices and these economic numbers. The Gold/Copper ratio, usually confined within a certain range, has recently tried to break higher. Despite facing resistance, the movement may still have momentum. Previous breaks upward have proven to be quite rapid. One way this could play out is if copper trades lower, the Gold/Copper ratio tends to trend higher. From a price action perspective, copper seems to be breaking out from a seven-month bull flag, inching towards the 4.00 price level. However, the significant resistance at 4.00 casts doubts on the breakout's success. Further fuelling this doubt is the emergence of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) death cross on the daily timeframe. On a shorter timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests slight overselling, while the overall price structure is encapsulated in a symmetrical triangle. Summing up, we foresee short-term downside for copper due to diverging macro factors from copper’s price and a downward trend in the dollar. Moreover, price action suggests overbought levels and looming resistance. CME has the Full-sized Copper Contract or the Micro Copper Futures which we can use to express this view, taking a short position at the current level of 3.904, stop loss at 4.10 and take profit at 3.55 the next level of support and subsequently 3.30 if the symmetrical triangle breakout happens. Each $0.0005 price move in copper per pound is equal to $1.25 for the micro copper futures and $12.50 for the full-sized copper futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:HG1!Short
by inspirante
BSV : READY FOR THE NEW USDT WHALE INCREASEHello traders, I hope you have a nice time with the market trading and study. This update is for BSVUSDT adding about the possibility of a breakout we can see in the coming time, the expecting coming from the High interest that can be from USDT to BSV. As we did add before we expect that BSV is going to see a breakout that will take the price up $76 with the high breakout expected of $110 We expect with the long-term cycle that BSV can return back to $400 USDT can play a very important role in this, and also since the last trends in HK. (BSV is more interesting in Asia) This update is not trading advice, but an expectation depending on our view. We already follow BSV Since the previous week.
Long
by Goldenbreakout
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