Recession Fears Slam OilOil plummeted off recession fears , rejecting the mid $90's. Technically we are already in a recession (by multiple metrics) but our puppet masters would like us to think otherwise, constantly chasing hope like a carrot on a fishing pole. We slammed past multiple levels in the $90's, giving up the $90 handle entirely. We are currently testing $88.74, with the next level down being $87.21. If we can test higher levels, then the $90's will provide a barrier, in particular at $90.06. A relative low at $85.55 should serve as our anticipated floor price for now.
Cl1
Are gasoline prices heading back to 2.00 dollars a gallon? $ugaWholesale gasoline futures could be telling us that the driving demand is bad and just not there to support these high prices. War and geo politics is pushing Crude Oil prices up as well as the heating related products, but gasoline is trading on its own forces currently. With the rejection at around 4.00 a gallon, is the support here or are we destined to look for support lower?
USOIL lost 95They came up to test it this morning, but couldn't overtake it again. As of now it looks like a stop hunt and reversal. So now, this is a short unless they can get it back over 96. OIL stocks also pulling back hard - I expect a big whoosh down in the oil sector unless they can get it above 96 soon. Good luck!
Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100In this tutorial, I will explain both its fundamental and technical reasons for crude oil likely to break above and stay above US$100.
I am having two portfolios at all times, one for long-term investing and the other for short-term trading.
For the long-term I am mindful the current global inflationary pressure is real and it may last many months or even years ahead.
Therefore, my current investment mandate:
• U.S. stock markets – To trade them
• Commodities – To buy them
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
For your reference:
NYMEX Crude Oil
$0.01 = US$10
Example:
From $94.00 to $100.00
(10000-9400) x US$10 = US$6,000
US Digs into Oil ReservesOil has made a run for higher levels, testing the next level above $95.24 at $96.88. US oil reserves are at lows not seen since 1984 , as the Biden administration hastily digs into reserves to frantically buoy prices before midterms. Nevertheless, we are still trekking closer to the $100 mark. If we are able to break through $96.88 then $100 is the next target. We should have some resistance there. If things turn south, then $92.03, or $90.06 are candidates for a floor price for now.
The post - Powell autopsy SPX500, BTC, USOIL, WEAT, Bonds, USD OK, the last video for the week after the markets got murdered today. Unfortunately I was being optimistic and got caught in a loss - it happens. Other trades are looking good - OIL, BONDS, WEAT especially. BTC looks like it's ready to drop, Gold may too. Both being pressured by the US Dollar. The Dollar rally will continue to make headlines. OK have a great weekend all and see you next week!
The Jackson hole play - SPX500 USOIL TLT Weat GOLD BTCJackson hole this week may be interpreted as dovish - a sell down today may set up a C leg tomorrow for Powell's speech. Breaking below 4100 and we've got a better short signal on the market. Oil continues it's struggle with 95, no decision yet. Bonds need to reverse soon. Weat looking good but no breakout confirmed just yet. GOld, looking better and could get up to 1850. BTC getting close to 22k resistance again. Good luck
USOIL support reached, could get slippery for shortsIf they don't break 90, it's a buy. Inverted head and shoulders points to a target of 104-105. If the market rallies from here, Oil likely will as well, but we'll see about both quite soon. My feeling is it should continue up to correct the massive move down and this is the price to try a long. Good luck!
Oil Stalls in the $90'sOil saw strong resistance at $95.24, the relative high we called out yesterday. After testing and rejecting this level we saw a brief ratracement, finding immediate support at $92.03, the next level down, as we anticipated. We should see further support from $90.06, the base of the $90 handle. If prices pick up, we must solidly break $95.24 and $96.88 before we can attempt $100 again.
CL1!: Short Trade Explained
CL1!
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell CL1!
Entry Level - 95.26
Stop Loss - 101.39
Take Profit - 86.05
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from higher levels.
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USOIL first target reached95 reached overnight. Now the question is - do we reject here? or do we consolidate these recent gains? Bulls want to see consolidation here for a day or two to build energy for the next target - 104. Bears want to see this level be the last stop on this counter trend rally and a swift rejection today. I'm expecting more upside with the 4 hr bullish divergence, but price will let us know soon enough. Good luck
Can Oil Test $100 Again?Oil has rebounded into the $90's after establishing a solid value area in the high $80's. It seemed like prices were finally coming down, when we saw a nice spike back to the $90's, reestablishing value above $92.03. We are currently testing $95.24, but a red triangle on the KRI may indicate that we are running into resistance. If we can break through then the next target is $96.88. After that, we are clear to attempt the $100's again. If we reject current levels, we should see support at the base of the $90 handle.
OIL8.23.22 This is a review of oil, specifically how you could have made significant trades in both directions with $3,000 ranges for more. The support and resistance were easy to identify, but there were nuances that you could see if you knew how to look at the chart that could have helped you make fewer mistakes and better trade decisions. Honestly, I don't know how you can make a lot of money in markets with relatively risk unless you focus when support and resistance areas. On the other hand, it is not quite as easy to trade the support or resistance because of the battles between buyers and sellers at those lines. I believe if you don't really think in terms at support or resistance, your risk will actually be that you will trade wrong direction. You can't live without focusing on those lines.... And once you do that, you have to learn how to manage your trade decisions. I go to those scenarios has the buyer and the seller looking at support and resistance in a two-day., with long and short trades. If you can learn this in one market, even the market you may not trade, you can use the analysis one markets that you will trade.
USOIL 23rd AUGUST 2022Oil prices briefly surged in mid-trade due to a push to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate. However, prices eased back after investors believed that the US central bank's policy this month was to maintain interest rates.
Another factor, the US dollar strengthened again to its highest level in five weeks, which limited the increase in crude oil prices. This is because oil becomes more expensive for buyers with non-US dollar currencies.
US Dollar Index
Oil prices will not be too bearish, this is due to the prospect of higher demand entering the winter season.
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn
This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week
Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
- Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)