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Cl1

Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?The terms "bullish" and "bearish" when used on Twitter and TradingView and in the media are more or less just poorly positioned synonyms for "going up" or "going down." Yet, it's a misnomer because some of the craziest pumps you'll ever see are during bear markets, and some of the craziest dump-a-thons you'll ever endure are during the most parabolic bull markets. Right now, the energy world is ablaze because the Russian Federation has more or less cut Europe out of Nord Stream 1 while Europe is already in the middle of an exceptional energy crisis, wrought by its own choices to follow the globalist-communist bloc in trying to punish Putin for a war in Ukraine that roots back to more than a decade of U.S.-NATO-led pot-stirring. News like this causes Europe's natural gas futures to print remarkably stupid prices, making a huge amount of widows from those who were trading short, and energy companies who are paying those prices and yet cannot charge those prices to the end user because of socialist command economy policies placed by the government. However, for North America's Henry Hub futures, Europe needing gas doesn't really help, because the Freeport terminal that's really the only place that LNG gets exported in any meaningful quantity blew up in July. It was supposed to come back online in October. And yet, news of its delay until at least November already printed on Aug. 23. Taking a look at the monthly, you can see that NG is still, really, historically cheap: The Biden Administration is going to donate a great quantity of natural gas to Europe once Freeport is back online. In my view, we're going to see a new all-time high print. Something that starts with the number "2." But before we get there, it's important to keep a cool head, and ask yourself: if Freeport has been offline since July and was set to come back online in October, why does price meander in this $8-9.50 range so early? Taking a look at the weekly provides some context: Before Freeport blew up in the first place, NG was flirting with $9. Once it blew up, it immediately took a three week liquidation spree to $5.50, with the worst part of that trip occurring on the final day of June as monthly futures contracts settled. Then it bounced. And for a commodity whose market maker usually likes to whip it up and down and gap up and gap down with violence on daily and weekly opens, it really just went in a straight line back to $9. Expanding down to the daily, it's even more obvious how much this traded like the SPX500 does when the Fed's money printer is doing work so that 75 year old men can mash buy and take a nap: And now here we are, entering the second week of September post-Labor Day. All the propaganda outlets and pundits crank the sirens, chanting, "Europe Natural Gas Utilities Crisis Russia Gazprom Texas Heatwave High Pressure Heat Dome California Electric Grid Shortage!!!" And all of that is true, just like all of that was true for WTI Crude when it traded at $125 for two months. And yet somehow, despite the fundamentals and all the pundits calling for $180 and $350 BECAUSE REASON S, oil is down 30% and it still isn't finished dumping. So, why is it? It's not hard to figure out. It really isn't. Retail buys high because they see confirmation that something is going up, and then panic sells when it gets rugged. And then when it goes back up they mash buy at a higher price than they sold at because of "Fear of Missing Out," and then they don't sell when they're in profit because their target on the SPX is 12,836 because Gann and Elliot said so, and everyone wants to be that guy you hear about who bought Google at $2 and held it for 20 years while playing golf. If Shell or Exxon traded like that, they would be bankrupt, none of us would have electricity to read these words, and we'd all either die from heat exhaustion or freeze to death without AC and furnaces. The reality is that when NG dumped at the end of July, it still didn't dump deep enough to enter a discount in this overall trading range. We've simply been watching what is still currently the 7th straight week of premium trading. If Natural Gas is going to go to $20 when Biden starts donating energy to save NATO's European arms, it really would make a lot more sense if some time were spent so companies and funds could accumulate a significant position at a relative discount. And indeed, there are at least two fat and curiously unchallenged double bottoms presented in the 4H chart that just happen to be in the sub-50% dealing range and at a price so low that it will have margin calling and leave ZeroHedge and Javier Blas from Bloomberg and friends in bewildered disbelief as to how energy commodities aren't worth anything "in a recession." I often say that what a person thinks can happen and what is actually happening in this world and this Universe are simply two totally different things. A human being is heavily deceived by the slow grind of time and the ostensible appearance before their eyes. Reality, on the other hand, simply follows a certain law and it will complete itself according to that law no matter how anyone cries about it. Whoever is in harmony with the law will establish themselves, and whoever is afoul of the law will get liquidated. The caveat to this chart is time. I can only fit so many 4H candles in a window and so the time on this chart only extends into early October. These lower prices, if they really come, could happen later in October or even in November. And while it'll really be quite the opportunity, it's also a "second mouse gets the cheese" kind of thing for those who are trying to get long for the moon at $7 and $6.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
CL1! - Weekly Market Update, 9/12WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - 9/12/22 (CLV2022) The GRAY descending support region currently @ 85.00 for this week can contain selling near term, above which the descending GRAY structure above @ 99.00 can contain buying strength near term. Upside, for this week, we'll be looking for price action to be contained by the GRAY descending channel above @ 99.00. A weekly settlement back above 100.00 (buy a 1%+ margin) should signal 109.00 to follow. Downside, 85.00 can contain weekly selling pressures, while a settlement below 82.00 by 1%+ could trigger an accelerated move towards 67.00 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
NYMEX:CLV2022
by SpecialeAnalysis
Oil Attempts a ReboundOil bottomed out at 81.30, as expected. Oil prices are generally trending downward off recession fears and china coronavirus lock downs . We are seeing a small pivot off lower levels and an attempt to regain 85.55, which should provide strong resistance as it was a low tested several times earlier last week. We are starting to see strong resistance as we approach this level. If we break through we could make a run for the $90's. If we retrace, then $81.30 should provide support again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
USOIL 5th SEPTEMBER 2022The standoff over Russia's gas and oil exports escalated on Friday after Moscow promised to close its main gas supply pipeline to Germany and G7 countries announced plans for price caps on Russian oil exports aimed at squeezing Russia's war chest in Ukraine. This latest closure of the Nord Stream pipeline, which Russia says will last as long as it takes to make repairs, adds to concerns over winter gas shortages that could pull major economies into recession and lead to energy rationing. Europe accuses Russia of weaponizing energy supplies in what Moscow calls an "economic war" with the West following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Moscow blames Western sanctions and technical problems for supply disruptions.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
6
USOIL 8th SEPTEMBER 2022Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday (September 7th), slipping below levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine as dismal Chinese trade data and growing fears of a global economic recession hurt fuel demand. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures for October delivery plunged US$4.94 or 5.7 percent. With lower prices this time it is a good opportunity to supply companies that are optimistic about surviving the recession and tightening monetary policy. This week, OPEC+ is scheduled to discuss oil production cuts as part of their future strategy. OPEC+ revised the market balance this year and expects demand to lag supply by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. However, the group of major oil producers expects the oil market to be in deficit by 300,000 bpd by 2023.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX
11
Crude Oil in 4H time Frame.Hi Everyone, Please see updated 4H chart, Oil already hit the support around 86 ready to test the key point at 90, if break there is likely 2 possible upside moment. as we can see the oil will make range until the fed release their new hike Interest rates. we also need see the next coming geopolitical movement from Russia , China and USA. The oil embargo will also have an impact on price movements. first possible range(4h - 1D): 80 - 110 USD second possible range (4h - 1D): 75 - 103 USD i try to always we will keep you all updated . Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, i really appreciate you support ! Goodluck i'll help you to have a great trade. Please using good money management. dont take any emotional trade. Note: Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market Wish good luck for all people. Please help support me by Clicking like button, and if you like my ideas please follow me and support me. i Relly Appreciate it! i'll make more and more great analysis if this chanel grows. on Gold , Oil , Nasdaq, SP500 , and some American, China, Japan, Indonesia stocks. Best luck for you. Cheers mate! Thankyou.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LaurentWilvyne
CRUDE to continue downward spiralCrude prices are oddly (well, perhaps not so) set to spiral down further below 80. Here is technically why it would... Light Crude Oil futures weekly chart show the recent consolidation around the weekly 55EMA, and that it appears to have broken down decisively, particularly closing at the lowest in the last 5 weeks. Technical indicators, particularly the RPM, suggest more momentum as does the weekly candlestick. The daily chart had a 55EMA failure with a large bearish engulfing candle that overwhelmed a decently large bullish candle the day before. This was followed by a down candle, completing a Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. As if it was not enough, a Gap Down was further followed by a candlestick that closed the week with a long top tail. The daily MACD crossed under the signal line and pushed further down into the bearish territory. Taken together, all these are simply pointing to more downside, likely to press below 80, targeting 70 towards the end of September. On another note, the USD appears to be technically bullish and pushing further up. Ceteris paribus , a rising USD usually pushes Crude prices lower.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
The Two Main Factors Effecting Oil PricesOil saw support at $85.55, confirmed by many green triangles on the KRI. As anticipated, we saw a nice pivot there, bouncing back just below $90. We are currently testing $88.74, but a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Recession fears, bolstered by the non farm payrolls headline miss, will likely weigh on the price, however supply side shortages will likely keep prices above $85.55 for now. Our level at $90.06 is likely to be a ceiling for the time being.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
why you lose your money !!!Ladies and gentlemen for 50 days smart money entered the market only 2 times, so this is very normal because the market has no direction to ride nowadays if you want to earn the money from the markets look for trends, 95% of traders losing money and only 5% making money from the markets, and the market 80% of the time in a range situation and 20% in a trend situation, so now you know the difference between profitable traders and losing traders. TAKE A TREND, MY FRIEND.
NYMEX:CL1!
by BidAskMagnet
Oil Hits our TargetOil has tumbled, giving up the $90's entirely, and plummetting deeper into the $80's. We have breached $90.06, and several levels after that in the upper $80's. In particular, $87.21, our target from yesterday, was hit exactly (to the tick) and is currently providing support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If we plummet further, our next target is $85.55. If we can manage to pivot, we should be able to test the $90's again, with $90.06 to provide resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Recession Fears Slam OilOil plummeted off recession fears , rejecting the mid $90's. Technically we are already in a recession (by multiple metrics) but our puppet masters would like us to think otherwise, constantly chasing hope like a carrot on a fishing pole. We slammed past multiple levels in the $90's, giving up the $90 handle entirely. We are currently testing $88.74, with the next level down being $87.21. If we can test higher levels, then the $90's will provide a barrier, in particular at $90.06. A relative low at $85.55 should serve as our anticipated floor price for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100In this tutorial, I will explain both its fundamental and technical reasons for crude oil likely to break above and stay above US$100. I am having two portfolios at all times, one for long-term investing and the other for short-term trading. For the long-term I am mindful the current global inflationary pressure is real and it may last many months or even years ahead. Therefore, my current investment mandate: • U.S. stock markets – To trade them • Commodities – To buy them Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. For your reference: NYMEX Crude Oil $0.01 = US$10 Example: From $94.00 to $100.00 (10000-9400) x US$10 = US$6,000
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by konhow
1