WTI OIL Still in the long-term Buy Zone.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 73.50 short-term Target that we called on December 07 (see chart below) but remains within the 2 -month Channel Down:
On the wider 1D time-frame, we can clearly see that the price is still inside the 9-month Buy Zone. The tendency is that when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks after dipping within the zone, the price approaches the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
The 1D RSI is on a Triple Bottom, i.e. confirmed Low and buy opportunity while the 1D MACD is on a Double Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting either for another pull-back to 68.00 - 69.00 or the 1D MA50 to break (and close a 1D candle above) and target 82.50 for the medium-term.
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Commoditysignals
XAUUSD: Channel Down sell signal as last May.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
The All Time High (ATH) candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is a Channel Up on the medium-term, which last week broke below its bottom but found Support exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you see on the chart, there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, since the price has already brokne below the current Channel Up and seems to have been rejected on an emerging (dotted) Channel Down as in May 2023, we expect this time to break the 1D MA50 and Support 1 and extend towards Support 2. We are bearish, targeting 1930.
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GASOLINE Buy signal if 1D MA50 breaks.Gasoline (RB1!) has had a strong 3-day rise last week but that is still contained within the bearish barriers of a Channel Down. However during this whole pattern, the 1D RSI has been developing a Channel Up, hence a Bullish Divergence for the price.
As a result, we will look to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a break-out signal and if the price closes a 1D candle above it, we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with an early target projection at 2.4250 (but of course this can move depending on its course).
Technically, we can even see the rise extending to +30.00% from the bottom or even slightly higher, as the two major bullish runs of 2023 have risen by +34.60% and +32.60% respectively.
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XPDUSD on the verge of a long-term bullish break-out.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High. Today though, the price broke, marginally so far, above it for the first time after a strong post-Fed 1D candle. This rise was initiated on a Lower Lows trend-line but on an underlying Bullish Divergence as the 1D RSI was during the same period on Higher Lows.
This was the first signal of a potential long-term bullish break-out and a break (and 1D candle closing) above both the Channel Down and more importantly the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (which is where the April 18 2023 High was rejected), will be the confirmation.
If it happens (closing 1D candle above it), then we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1255.00, which is slightly below Resistance 1 (1291.00). A further closing above Resistance 1, will be new break-out buy entry, with which we will target slightly below Resistance 2 at 1625.00.
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📈 Gold Dilemma: Navigating Unexpected TurnsUnfortunately, Gold has taken an unexpected turn, deviating from my initial expectations. It appears that the previous upward impulse might be an extension of Wave 1. To maintain my bullish outlook, it's crucial for us to remain above $1810; any breach below this level would invalidate the bullish scenario. However, if our interpretation aligns with a Wave 2 scenario, then a strong Wave 3 is on the horizon. In such a case, targeting the Weak High becomes pivotal. As a risk management measure, I've placed my stop-loss below the 78.6% Fibonacci level. 📈✨
XAUUSD 1D Symmetry giving a strong break-out sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
That Monday candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is still a Channel Up on the medium-term, with the price approaching its bottom.
As you might have already observed there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, if the price breaks below the current Channel Up, we expect not to stop on the 1D MA50 or Support 1 but rather extend towards Support 2. That will be a break-out sell signal for us, targeting 1930.
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XAUUSD The NFP is 'do-or-die' moment for this pattern.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading exactly at the bottom of the 2-month Channel Up, restrained below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which ahead of today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is getting increasing dangerous. Technically, as long as the Channel Up holds, the current level is the most optimal buy opportunity for another +11.00% bullish sequence (as the previous two Higher Highs) targeting above 2200.
With the 1D RSI though showing no divergence at all with the price's Higher Lows (as opposed to the previous two bottoms of the Channel Up), it is the first time on this pattern that a bearish break-out is so likely to take place. We will look for a break below the 2010 Support as our sell signal. Due to the usual high volatility that is expected during NFP releases, if we do get a bearish break-out, it is quite probable to reach the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) even within the day. Sell target on this, 1965.
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WTI OIL Channel Down bottom buy signalWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually hit our 71.00 target we set last week (see chart below) upon the dotted Channel Up break-out:
The price is now attempting a rebound following the breach of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a typical procedure throughout 2023 and delivers a strong rebound. However, we we will our perspective short-term until the Channel Down breaks, and will only target 73.50, which is where we expect contact to be made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We reserve a spot for an additional buy at 67.00 (June 28 Low), in case the price makes one last pull-back to price a Lower Low on the Channel Down.
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COPPER Correction to accelerate lower.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!) 1.5 months ago (October 24), we caught the most optimal bottom buy signal:
The price action didn't only hit our Target but also broke above both the January 18 2023 Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The rejection that took place on Monday though, is giving rise to a new Falling Wedge pattern with the current Bearish Leg on full display. The bearish signal is already confirmed as the 1D MACD has completed a Bearish Cross, and so far the sequence is very similar to the August 01 rejection.
As a result, we are bearish on Copper, looking to take advantage of today's green 1D candle and short near the closing in anticipation of being close to the peak. Our short term Target is 3.6100, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a symmetrical level where the price bounced on August 17. Selling can only be extended if the green Support Zone breaks.
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NATURAL GAS Turned bearish but short below the 1D MA200.Natural Gas (NG) opened today below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern and that is of course the strongest indication that the market has turned bearish long-term. The first sign was breaking and closing below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which hasn't been done since June 14.
The safest course of action would be to sell after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks and target first the bottom of the Support Zone at 2.425 and after a bounce, 2.135 (Support 2) in extension.
Until the 1D MA200 breaks though, we can see a dead-cat-bounce if the price breaks the Lower Highs trend-line and closes above the 1D MA100 again. If that happens before, as well as the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, we will buy first the target Resistance at 3.275.
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XAGUSD peaked and expected to pull-back for the rest of DecemberSilver (XAGUSD) has hit a peak price amidst the geopolitical unrest this weekend (Red Sea attacks) and this is technically the Higher High of the medium-term Channel Up that started on the September 22 High. The 1D RSI is reversing already and as a target we have two technical candidates.
In the past 7 months we've had 5 major corrections, the minimum being -7.61% and the maximum -13.13%. As a result our target is the minimum projection of -7.61%, aiming for 24.000. However we may even see a technical extension as low as 23.450, which will not only be the bottom of the Channel Up, but also a 1D MA50 test (blue trend-line) but more importantly the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the November 13th Low almost bottomed.
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XAUUSD Made new High. Is a rejection inevitable or 2250 is next?Gold (XAUUSD) has made a new All Time High (ATH) today early during the Asian session opening amidst the attacks in the Red Sea, peaking just below 2150 before being sold-off on each passing hour. Regardless of the pull-back, this managed to make a new ATH after almost 3.5 years.
There is technical evidence however showing that if the current weekly (1W) candle closes in red (which is still very early to tell as we are only at the start of it), Gold may share the fate of the previous peaks at 2082: a rejection and immediate bearish reversal towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (blue lines) from the October 02 Low on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case, we will target 1980 (0.5 Fib), which would also test the Channel's 0.5 Fibonacci level as well as the 1W MA50 again (blue trend-line).
Be aware though that the current 2-month rally is the most 'systematic' of all previous as first it rebounded on the 1W MA200 and then on the 1W MA50. As a result and while considering the Fibonacci Channel Up trend-lines, as they are applied perfectly to Gold's uptrend since 2020, if the current (or any that follow) 1W candle closes above the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level, we will buy the break-out and target the 1.0 Fib level (top/ Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel) at 2250. The risk (and as a result the SL) is low in each case.
As a side note, check how well the majority of the price action since January 2020 fits within the 0.786 - 0.236 Fibonacci levels. This range is Gold's 'High Volatility Zone'.
Also as an additional observation, check how rejection candles look on the monthly (1M) scale, which is again of course too early to tell for the current one:
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WTI OIL Loosely supported by the RSI.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected yesterday just before it hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Down. It may have broken though below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as well but found support on the short-term Channel Up (dotted lines), which is essentially the bearish leg towards the Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
The early October bullish sequence traded within such a Channel Up as well and broke downwards only when the 4H RSI broke below its Higher Lows trend-line (October 22). Currently the RSI is supported by a similar Higher Lows trend-line. If broken, we will see and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 71.00. Until then we have the opportunity for a Channel Up bottom long towards 79.50 (4H MA200 potential contact).
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XAUUSD Is it time to finally break above the 3 year Resistance?Gold (XAUUSD) entered yesterday the Resistance Zone that has been in effect for more than 3 years (40 months actually) since the week of August 03 2020. The main characteristic of this zone is that even though the 1W (weekly) candles broke within it, they all closed eventually back below it. And this is why we make this analysis today on the 1W time-frame instead of the 1D, which is about to complete a Golden Cross.
The question on everyone's mind and rightly so is, will Gold finally break past this Resistance or it will be emphatically rejected into a new round of selling as the previous 3 times? Of course there is no definitive answer but we need to look at the pattern dynamics infront of us.
The current rally since the October 02 (1W) Low has a distinct set of features that wasn't present in the other times the Resistance Zone was tested. Its bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the first pull-back found support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This indicates bullish bias of buying on key demand trend-lines that we didn't see on the previous tests.
The 1W MA50 rebound in particular basically invalidated the similarities with the May 31 2021 rejection, which broke below the 1W MA50 and was later rejected on it, turning it into a Resistance.
So what's next? Well despite the obvious different buying pressure on this rally, if the current 1W candle closes below the Resistance Zone, it will be a bearish sign. And the fact that it is such a long-term Resistance, makes a potential sell-off of significant magnitude. If however it closes inside the Resistance Zone, Gold will have made the first step after more than 3 years to finally attempt to break above it in December and make a proper new All Time High (May 01 2023 was just a marginally ATH).
What do you think will prevail? Rejection or new ATH?
BONUS MATERIAL See how successful and accurate trading on a long-term time-frame can be:
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WTI OIL Excellent buy opportunity.WTI OIL (USOIL) has been trading within a long-term Rectangle since the August 30 High. This is most accurately displayed by the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels where we can see that the majority of the price action has been within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci range. We call that the "High Volatility Zone". On November 16 the price almost hit the bottom of that Zone and since the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is just below and has been the long-term Support (hasn't closed a 1D candle below it since January 29 2021!), we consider the commodity to have significant upside potential.
On top of that, the 1D RSI has Double Bottomed on the oversold barrier of 30.00 (where it always gave strong rallies on May 04 2023, March 17 2023, December 09 2022 and September 26 2022) while the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross (with all such crosses below the 0.00 mark being a buy signal).
We are bullish at least for the short-term, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 80.50, expecting also a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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XAUUSD Double Top Sell SignalGold (XAUUSD) is failing to break early into today's E.U. session above Friday's High, and that is so far a Double Top. If it holds, it will be a technical rejection sell signal and based on the similarities with the September 01 peak fractal (+3.65% rise, identical 4H RSI patterns), it can complete a drop even a little under the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
With the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) involved this time as the long-term Support and the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA200 (orange) each offering its part as Supports the past 10 days, we will put our target a little higher at 1950.
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WTI OIL Short-term rebound expected.Last month's Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern (see chart below) hit both of our Targets (79.00 and 75.00) and transitioned into a Channel Down:
The price almost hit the pattern's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) and after a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection, the 4H RSI formed the same Higher Lows trend-line as it did on October 12.
We are expecting this to be the start of the Lower High leg towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is expected to be within the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and a +10.25% range. Target 82.50.
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XAUUSD Retracement almost completed. Sell opportunity.Gold (XAUUSD) took advantage of the lower than expected U.S. CPI and rose aggressively back above both the Channel Down and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but not before hitting our Lower Low target within the Channel Down (see chart below):
Even though this rise is more based on fundamentals than technicals, the price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level where the previous Channel Down break-out formed a top and reversed (September 01 2023). If fundamentals continue to influence the market more, then we might see Gold rise a little more, until the 4H RSI gets close to 80.00, but the upside is limited. You can start selling with a first short-term target the 0.236 Fib ay 1947.50.
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XAUUSD Is the pull-back completed?Almost 10 days ago we made a bold (at the time) bearish call (see chart below) for a short-term pull-back on Gold (XAUUSD) towards the 1W MA50:
The yellow metal has so far responded positively to this call as it dropped below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) to 1945. The Channel Down pattern that emerged is using the 4H MA50 as its Resistance/ Lower Highs trend-line and until it breaks, we should be expecting a continuation. Oversold 4H RSI readings will always give technical bounces like yesterday's but as long as the 4H MA50 holds, it is more likely to see Gold test the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1933. If the 4H MA50 does break and closes a candle above it, we will buy and target 1995.
Notice how the Channel Down pull-back is similar to the declines of July - August, May and April. The 4H MA50 served as the Resistance and in the case of April, it did test the 4H MA200.
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XAUUSD Channel Up into Head and Shoulders? Which will prevail?Gold (XAUUSD) is heading into today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report trading on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) within a Channel Up pattern. Even though the volatility will be great coming into the report, we should trade this on a candle closing approach.
A 4H candle closing above the 1993.50 Symmetrical Resistance, will be a bullish signal, targeting 2020, which will be a typical +2.70% rise as the previous two bullish legs of the Channel Up.
A 4H candle closing below the 1970 neckline and more importantly the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), will be a bearish signal for us and we will target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1930.
Note that the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. However the previous one on October 27 failed to turn the trend bullish and instead formed the (so far) top of the Channel Up.
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WTI OIL Head and Shoulders within A Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually formed the Channel Up we projected on our most recent (see chart below) analysis 2 weeks ago:
As the price is below both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we spot the completion of the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern inside that Channel. We will not short however before the price closes a 4H candle below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. Technically the H&S targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (75.00) but for the time being, we will settle for a 79.00 target, which will be marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
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XAUUSD High chances for a short-term pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) is having an remarkable 3 week rally after a technically flawless hit-and-rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the week of October 02. Obviously, this rally has been stretched by the geopolitical unrest in Middle East and isn't purely technical on its full range, but besides the small fundamental correction we should see once peace is restored, there are a few important conclusions we can make from similar technical situations in the recent past.
For the past +3 years (since the August 2020 High), Gold has seen another 6 similar rallies (+10.53% to +14.12%). Of those 6 only 2 formed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, such as the rally we are currently at. Even the 3 rallies after the September 26 2022 bottom that were on an uptrend, delivered short-term corrections to at lest the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This time the 0.382 Fibonacci level is marginally below 1940 and can be your target.
If the current rally is indeed the start of a new multi-month bullish sequence to new All Time Highs (ATH), then a hit-and-rebound at 1940 would be ideal technically, as it will test successfully the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the standard Support level during long-term uptrends.
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