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Commoditysignals

XAUUSD Trading plan until the end of summer.This Gold (XAUUSD) analysis is on the 4H time-frame where the current consolidation becomes clearer. As you see all three 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) have converged is a similar (almost) Double Bottom fashion as the March 2021 and July 2021 fractals. On all three occasions, the 1D RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the price rebounded (attention again, the candle action is on the 4H time-frame while the RSI on the 1D). With the exception of the August 04-06 2021 flash crash on fundamentals, the market hit the 0.5 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels for the July and March fractals respectively. On the August flash crash the price plummeted as low as the -0.382 Fib extension. As a result, we maintain a buy position on Gold throughout the Summer targeting 1920 (just below the 0.5 Fib) and then with the SL moved on profit, pursuing the 2000 mark (just below the 0.786 Fib) in extension. However with a break below the 1787 Support, we will book losses and switch to a sell instead, targeting the -0.382 Fib ext at 1680. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
NATURAL GAS Strong sell towards at least the 1D MA200Natural Gas (NG1!) broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week for the first time since February 11 and upon the first re-test as a Resistance, it got rejected. This indicates strong sell bias on the medium-term. The likely target is the zone within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (green trend-line) or when the 1D RSI turns oversold. With the long-term pattern being a Bullish Megaphone since July 2020, the 1D MA200 was reached on both previous Higher Lows formation. Depending on the news at the time, as long as the pattern holds, the price is then more likely to bounce back up. However NG's multi-month cyclical behavior shows that it is close to the end of the current Cycle. So if the Megaphone breaks to the downside, be ready to invest in a long-term sell. Updates will follow until then. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Still bearish unless the 1D MA50 breaks.A lot of volatility lately on Gold (XAUUSD) with the inflation data weighing on the technically bearish long-term pattern, which as we outlined last week was a Channel Down: As you see, the price got indeed rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the current chart, red on the previous analysis), which is just below the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. Naturally, the price is heavily bearish, trending towards the 1789 Support, i.e. the May 16 Low, as it broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Still, there seems to be a strong medium-term Support around the 1D MA200. So best to do is trade upon confirmation, i.e. bearish continuation with a sell trade if the 1778 bottom of the 2021 Support Zone breaks (target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low) and buy if the price closes above the 1D MA50, or even better above the 0.382 Fib (target progressively the higher Fibonacci levels). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL heading to $160 long-termThis is not a new chart I'm sharing with you on WTI Crude Oil today, I've initially posted it 2 months ago, calling for a medium-term consolidation and then bullish break-out when the Resistance breaks, based on the striking similarities with the September 2020 - March 2021 pattern: It is time to update my thesis, as the Resistance broke and the similarities continue to be striking both in candle and RSI terms. The analysis is on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) standing out. On the May 31 2021 1W candle, when the price broke and closed the week above the prior High/ Resistance, Oil eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Currently that Fib level is at 159.00. With the 1W RSI well above its MA, it appears that WTI has enough momentum to break its prior High/ Resistance by July. This is a long-term thesis. I will be making updates on the 1D time-frame for shorter term trades. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
9
XAUUSD Still bearish unless this level breaksGold (XAUUSD) has established a Channel Down pattern since its March 08 peak during the Ukraine - Russia war. Since May 16 it has been forming its new leg to a Lower High but three sessions ago it got rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), cutting the uptrend from a 1D MA50 test (red trend-line) which is the long-term pivot for Gold between a bullish and a bearish trend. Being a barometer, it won't be until Gold breaks the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, that a sustainable bullish reversal can be achieved. Until then, every such rejection, is a sell opportunity towards roughly 1790, which is the top of the 2021 Support Zone. Notice also that the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 crosses above the 4H MA200) got held up with that 4H MA200 rejection last week and then last time we had such a Golden Cross was on February 11, right at the start of the enormous war rally. As a result if a new 4H Golden Cross is achieved and the Lower Highs break, be ready to buy the break-out with short-term targets the Fibonacci retracement levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD One last dump possible before a 2000 rallyGold (XAUUSD) is consolidating for the 6th straight day after the mid-May rebound. So far the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) is being used as the short-term Support. As long as this holds, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the immediate target. If broken and a 1D candle closes below it, we may see an aggressive correction of the rally towards 1800 - 1785, in the same manner as March 2021, whose fractal the current price action seems to be following. Both sequences bottomed at around -10.50% from their tops, were under Lower Highs with 2021 briefly consolidating on the 4H MA100 before dropping to the previous Low. Notice that in both sequences the initial rebound stopped and got rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. What followed after that in 2021 was an aggressive rally to the 1.236 Fib extension. If we complete the current pattern in the same fashion, then a 1.236 leg would be just above 2040. It might be safer to target the start of this correction just below 2000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Targeting the 4H MA200 short-termGold (XAUUSD) has turned the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support as it broke the Lower Highs trend-line of the April/ May downtrend. As you see this is now the Pivot line and last week it successfully held as Support upon testing. The 4H RSI got rejected exactly on the 70.00 overbought barrier and should turn neutral as the rise will most likely continue in a more sustainable manner. As long as the 4H MA50 pushes the price, the short-term target is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) with our projections showing contact within 1885 - 1890. See also how well the Fibonacci retracement levels have acted as Resistances and provided short-term rejections. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
XAGUSD Maybe temporary bounce unless the 1D MA50 breaks.Silver (XAGUSD) has been on a short-term rise since the May 13 Low. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down since May 18 2021, so practically a whole year of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The recent one, isn't a solid Lower Low however, in fact it resembles the August 09 2021 Low, which despite a short-term rise, it failed exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and got rejected to a Lower Low. It was only when the price later broke above the 1D MA50 that the uptrend was sustained and eventually made a new Lower High. As a result, with the 1D Death Cross imminent (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200), it is best to buy either on the exact bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line of the Channel Down or if the 1D MA50 breaks first. Notice how in the rise to the Lower High, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also rejected the uptrend twice. Keep those in mind if you engage into long-term trading within this pattern. It is also important to have the 1W RSI Resistance and Support Zones in the equation. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Can scratch 1900 but watch the 1D candle closesGold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since its March 08 top due to the 'fear' mix of war and inflation. On Thursday it broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 07 2022 and Friday saw the price touch the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down. Today it marginally broke below it, with the 1D RSI hitting the 30.000 oversold mark but the price is recovering and we should pay close attention to the 1D candle closings. As long as we close inside the Channel Down, it is more likely to see a rebound towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the last Lower High, as seen on the previous rebound within the Channel. If done within May, it may test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance. If however a 1D candle closes below the Lower Lows trend-line, I expect the price to seek the lower Channel Fibonacci extension of -1.00 around 1720 - 1715. Below 1700, the way opens for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) test, for the first time since December 06 2018. Note that in order for the long-term bullish trend to be restored, Gold has to break the previous Lower High which was marginally below 2000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1
GASOLINE Buy the dip for the next 2 monthsGasoline (RB1!) has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since January 2022 and after the most recent contact with the trend-line (April 07 2022), it has been on a strong rise. This shouldn't surprise us as the 1D RSI has been printing the same pattern as the March - June 2021 period, when Gasoline formed a Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. This suggests that every dip towards the Support should be bought until at least the end of July. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL 1 month of scalping with 12 successful tradesAs mentioned on my last two ideas (April 19 and May 02), WTI Oil has been neutral on the medium-term where scalping was favored: Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame where you can see the range more clearly (Resistance at 116.60 and Support at 93.00). On this post I present the golden combination that offered 100% profitable results during this 1 month of scalping. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) can be used as the Pivot Line. I've also plotted the Bollinger Bands (blue range). As you see, every time the 4H RSI touched either its Resistance (sell signal) or Support Zone (buy signal), it bounced towards at least the 4H MA100 and in most cases even the top/ bottom of the Bollinger Bands before the next signal emerged. So far this approach has given 100% success rate with 12/12 correct signals. We will continue scalping this until either the Resistance or Support level breaks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD approaching the 1D MA200. Strong medium-term buy signal.One and a half month ago, I posted the following analysis, making a case of the similarities of the Ukraine - Russia war parabolic rise, with the blow-off top of August 2020: The long-term levels were clearly stated and as you see, Gold's (XAUUSD) price action has followed my projection fairly well. The bullish invalidation level (green trend-line), remains intact, and the longer it does, the more likely it is for Gold to dive lower. However, it has come close to the first important Support level of this correction, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As you see, this happens to be exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up that started after the August 09 2021 Low and broke parabolically with the war in Ukraine. In the late September 2020 fractal, that led to a medium-term rebound to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That level is a little above 1960 and swing traders can use this as a short-term target. On top of that, the 1D RSI has entered its multi-year Buy Zone. Notice also the lower Fibonacci extensions of the Channel (-0.5 and -1.00). Similar to the 1.5 and 2.0 upper extensions that were hit as the war escalated, those are the lower extensions that may be hit as the war deescalates and Gold loses its value as a safe haven to the USD, which has seen enormous strength lately. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL Scalping medium-term. Check these break-out levels.On my last WTI Oil analysis, I stated that the price action was neutral, which favored scalping: Two weeks later, that still remains the case as we remain within the 117.00 Resistance and 93.10 Support, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) being used as the pivot trend-line. For now, a high return strategy would be scalping the 1D Bollinger Bands (chart on the left). On the longer-term 1W time-frame though (chart on the right), we see that the last 5 months resemble the price action of late 2020/ early 2021. The 1W TSI sequence is fairly similar and the longer we trade sideways on the medium-term the more it favors the consolidation bias of the accumulation scenario of March - April 2021 and then bullish break-out towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. A break below the 'Prior High' level of 85.00 would break both the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-lines on both charts) and should target the 66.10 December Low at least. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
NATURAL GAS Multi-year Cycles.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been one of the most profitable trading assets of the year offering great returns. On a long-term scale though (1W time-frame on this chart) it has starting to form a peak pattern, which we have seen previously in the past 20 years. I've plotted the Sine Waves on the chart to more efficiently illustrate NG's long-term cycles. Currently it is within a Bull Cycle having formed a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) last June. However after every 1W Golden Cross since 2000, the market made a Top shortly after. This was disrupted this year due to the Ukraine-Russia war and as a result the price negated the peak of October 2021 and broke outside the Sine Wave. This is not the first time we see that. On the upside this took place in December 2003 - January 2004 and on the downside in June 2015. If 2004 - 2005 is repeated, we should see the price pull-back immediately towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and within this year towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), and then rebound on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows towards the next Sine Wave to form a Top. On the other hand, this is negated if we get 2 straight weekly (1W) candle closings below the 1W MA200 or if the December 2021 low of 3.535 breaks first. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
GOLD on a buy opportunity but watch this invalidation level.On my last Gold (XAUUSD) analysis, I stressed the importance of a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test while the price was at the top of the Channel Up before discussing a new rise. However, the price broke even below the 1D MA50 and is now approaching the 1890 low of March 29. As long as it trades above that level, Gold is a buy especially as the 1D CCI is just above its 1 year Support Zone. A break below 1890 level though, would invalidate the structure that is similar to the late 2021/ early 2022 pattern, so be ready to adjust by either taking the loss and opening a sell on a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target or hedging. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
5
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance. Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break. A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling. A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario. The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
5
XAUUSD Channel Up needs a 1D MA50 test before new All Time HighsGold (XAUUSD) has been trading inside a Channel Up on the 4H time-frame since the March 16 bottom. The 1D MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting. As long as the Channel Up holds, keep buying near the Higher Lows trend-line and selling near the Higher Highs trend-line. Based on the 4H MACD, this Channel Up resembles that of December - January. That pattern upon reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, it pulled-back to the 0.236 Fib before eventually breaking above the 1877.75 Resistance. The 1D MA50 has been holding as Support ever since. As a result, you can expect a potential pull-back towards the 0.236 Fib (1932) before a new rally. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1
XAUUSD made a bullish break-out, one last barrier left to break.We saw Gold (XAUUSD) trading sideways last week but this Monday broke above the 1966 short-term Resistance: As per our trading plan, that was a short-term bullish break-out signal that should be enough to test the 2010 level. We have this as the long-term bullish break-out level, above which Gold should target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the long-term Channel Up and our target zone will be 2085 - 2120. Another strong bullish development is the fact that the price rebounded once it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 07. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, the trend should continue to be bullish and even a rejection on the 2010 invalidation level, should get a second chance at breaking it. We have a bearish break-out signal if the price closes below the 1915 short-term Support. Another closing below 1880 will be another sell position for us, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Important Note: The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. Inside the past 12 months, this has been a bullish signal 5 out of 6 times. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
ALTSEASON might be right around the corner.This is the Crypto Total Market Cap excluding Bitcoin, which illustrates the Capitalization of the rest of the cryptocurrency market (altcoins essentially). As you see, this index has been trading around the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since late January 2022, basically since the start of the year, with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) firmly supporting below. Practically the market has been consolidating in a sideways (wide though) trade since May 2021. The last time we saw the price consolidating around the 1W MA50 was in Q3 - Q4 2019. That was the 1st Accumulation Phase of this Cycle. If it weren't for the Black Swan event of the COVID melt-down in March 2020, the index would have continued rising after breaking above the 1W MA50 for the last time. This chart shows all Accumulation and Rally phases since 2014. The RSI patterns on all are similar. I speculate that the current Accumulation Phase (which is this Cycle's 2nd) is about to end because the 1W RSI is completing the curve pattern upwards as it has broken above its MA (black line) for the second time. If it does, then the 2nd Rally of the current Cycle should start, which is essentially what we call an 'Altseason'. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by TradingShot
13
WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line): That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence. On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
GOLD Giant Cup & Handle or new Bear Cycle long-term?This is a long-term perspective on Gold (XAUUSD) following the March top rejection, which was largely led by the geopolitical fundamentals (Ukraine - Russia war). In fact that was a Double Top near the 2075 Resistance of the August 2020 All Time High (ATH). Such Double Top rejections typically lead to selling sequences, and so far this is what we see in the weeks that followed (this chart is on the 1W time-frame). The RSI pattern of the March rejection is identical to that of the August 2020 ATH. This time, however, we can identify a giant Cup pattern, and technically what follows is the Cup formation of the pattern. This formation typically breaks higher, above the previous Resistance and into a strong rally. But how can we determine if that is indeed a Cup & Handle pattern (C&H) or if a new long-term Bear Market is ahead of us after the Double Top? Well, one way to look at it is by seeing if the Symmetrical levels (Resistances and Supports) play any part. A break below the 1850 Symmetrical Support 1, would most likely hint to a new Bear Cycle on the long run as that would also mean a break below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line. When that happened in February 2021, it took the market more than 1 year to recover the November 2020 High and that was a Bear Cycle. The November 2020 High is the Symmetrical Resistance. A break above that level, after the price trades within the Channel Down indicated, would mean that the C&H pattern is confirmed, and that the Handle will give way to a new Parabolic Rally, similar to the one that led the market to the August 2020 All Time High. Which of the two do you think is the case? Cup and Handle into new All Time Highs or Bear Cycle? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot