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Market Analysis: Oil Takes a HitMarket Analysis: Oil Takes a Hit Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $72.20. Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today - Crude oil prices failed to clear the $80.00 region and started a fresh decline. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $80.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $76.35 support. The price even dipped below the $75.00 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $72.20 level. A low was formed at $72.16, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.44 swing high to the $72.16 low at $73.85. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85. The first major resistance is near the $75.80 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.44 swing high to the $72.16 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $76.35 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $79.45. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $72.20 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $70.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $70.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $68.50 support zone. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1
Crude Oil Is SandwichedPrice is currently between the white centerline and the long-term support/resistance level. Since the price is near the centerline, we're seeing a kind of pullback to it. According to the Medianline framework, this is expected after trading below it. The downside target would be the orange CL, as that aligns with the organic target. However, between the current price and the CL target, the long-term support level is quietly sitting there—possibly waiting to trap shorts. What should a trader do now? a) We could stay on the sidelines, observe, and learn. b) We could go short, reasoning that the price is trading below the white CL and has made a textbook pullback to it. My stop would be placed above the orange bar that broke through the white CL. A long position is not an option for me, as we are still below the white CL. By the way: Look to the left and notice how the current situation mirrors past price action: 1. Break below the CL 2. Retest the CL 3. Move downward
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
The Inevitable Descent of UKOILIn the shadow of a market that continues to revel in its own delusions, I find myself compelled to address the elephant in the room – or rather, the oil in the barrel that is UKOIL. We stand on the precipice of what I predict to be a significant correction, one that will see UKOIL prices plummeting to the region of $48 per barrel. Why the Fall? OPEC+'s decision to phase out additional output cuts by September 2025, announced in June last year, is a clear signal. The return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, should market dynamics permit, will flood an already saturated market. Despite the rhetoric of control, the reality is that OPEC+'s spare capacity, currently at 5.9 million barrels per day, limits any significant price increase. This, coupled with near-record production levels from non-OPEC countries like the United States, sets the stage for an oversupply scenario. The notion that demand will continue to grow unchecked is flawed. Global oil consumption growth is expected to slow dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, with similar levels in 2025. This deceleration is driven by multiple factors including the rise of electric vehicles, increasing efficiency in traditional vehicles, and a stuttering economic recovery in major markets like China. The market's current bullishness is more sentiment than substance. Indicators like the Stoch RSI currently at 77.9 suggest we are nearing overbought territory, a strong indication that a reversal could be imminent. This high reading, combined with the parabolic SAR signaling an upward trend now, might just be the last gasp before a significant correction. The technical and fundamental analyses converge on a bearish outlook. Long Forecast anticipates Brent oil, which closely tracks UKOIL, to hover around $60-$65 by 2026 before a potential rebound. This, combined with other forecasts suggesting a further decline in demand, paints a picture not of a soft landing, but of a sharp descent. If we extrapolate current trends and market sentiment shifts, $48 is not just a possibility but a probable near-term floor. Investors should consider reducing exposure to oil-related equities or hedge against the risk through diversification into non-correlated assets. For those with the stomach for risk, this scenario presents a unique opportunity to short UKOIL CFDs. In closing, let us not be swayed by the siren song of current market highs. The fundamentals, much like gravity, will eventually pull prices back to earth. Prepare for the storm, for it's not a matter of if, but when. Horban Brothers. Alex Kostenich
FX:UKOILShort
by horbanbrothers
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher within its range-bound market. On the daily chart, it faced resistance near the gap created on January 27. Even if the index continues to rise, it is likely to encounter strong resistance near the January 24 closing price of 21,911. Keep in mind the principle that gaps tend to get filled and that they often act as strong support or resistance levels once filled. Since the MACD is still maintaining a buy signal on the daily chart, it is advantageous to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy. The recent move appears to be driven by dollar weakness, and similar to gold's strong rally yesterday, Nasdaq could also experience an additional upward rally. Therefore, short positions should be taken at the highest possible levels. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the zero line and is now pulling the signal line upward as well. If the index continues to rise and fills the gap, both the MACD and signal line will be above the zero line, and after consolidating at the gap resistance level, the next directional movement will likely be determined. It is best to focus on buying on dips while setting strict stop-loss levels for any short positions above the gap. Proper risk management is key. Crude Oil Crude oil closed nearly flat but showed a meaningful breakout from the downward channel on the shorter time frames. It also created a gap-up on the daily chart and broke above the 5-day moving average. Previously, oil had been declining due to Trump's announcement regarding increased oil drilling, but this news is largely priced in now, making a technical rebound possible. The key level to watch on the upside is $74.50, while buying opportunities exist below $73, with a stop-loss at $72. On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence has formed at the bottom, leading to another buy signal. Since the price appears to be building a base, additional buying momentum could emerge. While the market is still range-bound, a buy-on-dip strategy remains favorable for now. Gold Gold surged to new all-time highs and closed with strong gains. The rally was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s tariff imposition, boosting gold prices significantly. As mentioned yesterday, the MACD turned upward again, leading to another sharp rally on the daily chart. Since gold strongly broke out of its previous range with a large bullish candlestick, today is a buy-on-dip day, particularly near the 3-day moving average. If the price retraces in the pre-market session, it could dip toward the 3-day moving average, so traders should be mindful of this possibility. However, if gold maintains its strength and closes with another bullish candlestick, the 3-day moving average will move higher, reinforcing the uptrend. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have diverged significantly, reflecting the strong uptrend. Buying on dips remains effective, while selling should be avoided since RSI indicates overbought conditions. As gold's volatility is increasing, traders should consider adjusting contract sizes, using micro contracts, or lowering leverage to allow for wider stop-loss levels and better trade management. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21680 / 21630 / 21580 / 21530 / 21465 -Sell Levels: 21770 / 21845 / 21890 / 22010 / 22055 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.40 -Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.10 / 74.50 / 75.00 GOLD - Bullish Market(April) -Buy Levels: 2845 / 2840 / 2831 / 2824 -Sell Levels: 2860 / 2866 / 2870 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed flat as the market digested the previous day's FOMC decision to hold interest rates and major corporate earnings reports. The strategy of selling at the 5-day moving average proved effective, and despite the FOMC decision and earnings from Tesla and Microsoft, the index remained within a range-bound market. On the daily chart, the MACD is still above the signal line and the zero line, indicating that the buy signal is still intact. However, as there has been no significant volatility, the gap between the indicators remains narrow, maintaining the current range. Since the buy signal is still valid, it would be advantageous to monitor whether the gap-down from January 27 is filled and trade accordingly within the range. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line below the zero line and is now consolidating. For the MACD to cross below the signal line, a sharp decline would be necessary, but given the current spread between the MACD and the signal line, such a drop appears unlikely. Instead, if the market continues to consolidate and the MACD and signal line converge, the next move—whether another buying wave or a selling wave—will determine the trend. Since key economic reports, including the GDP release and Apple’s earnings, are due today, it would be best to adopt a range-bound strategy. Crude Oil Crude oil faced resistance at $74 and closed lower. On the daily chart, the sell signal remains intact, with prices failing to break above the 5-day moving average and continuing to decline within a downward channel. Prices are currently supported around the $72 level. For a bullish outlook, it would be crucial to see a strong bullish candlestick breaking above the downward channel's upper boundary at around $73.60. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line. While the MACD has crossed above the signal line, the price has not surged, resulting in only a narrow spread. Given that the $72–73 range has historically been a strong support zone, it would be preferable to buy on pullbacks. However, if the price breaks below this range and a sell signal emerges, it will be important to monitor whether the $72 level holds as support. Gold Gold closed flat on the daily chart, maintaining a buy signal. The MACD and signal line are gradually converging, but the spread remains sufficient to prevent an immediate shift to a sell signal. If the MACD turns upward, further gains are likely. A key factor to watch is whether the weekly candlestick forms a bullish pattern and the MACD crosses above the signal line. Key resistance levels are at 2800 and 2820. On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is still intact, but the spread has narrowed, indicating weaker momentum. The market is range-bound with mixed buying and selling pressure. As long as no sell signal appears on the 240-minute chart, a buy-on-dip strategy is preferable. However, keep in mind that upcoming economic data releases may lead to pre-market consolidation. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21470 / 21400 / 21360 / 21285 / 21220 -Sell Levels: 21625 / 21680 / 21770 / 21890 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.50 -Sell Levels: 73.40 / 73.85 / 74.40 / 75.00 GOLD - Bullish Market(April) -Buy Levels: 2793 / 2787 / 2777 / 2773 / 2768 -Sell Levels: 2803 / 2809 / 2813 / 2821 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ successfully rebounded and closed higher. Yesterday was a day where selling at the 3-day moving average was possible, and after rebounding to the 3-day line, it faced resistance and closed at that level. The rebound appears to be a recovery from the excessive drop on Monday due to overblown concerns about China's Deepseek. On the daily chart, the MACD remains above the signal line, maintaining a buy signal, which suggests further attempts to rebound are likely. Additionally, today’s FOMC meeting and major corporate earnings reports will be pivotal in determining whether the downward gap created on Monday will be filled. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a golden cross after the sharp drop and subsequent rebound. If the golden cross is not confirmed and the index falls again, it may test the double-bottom level, so caution is advised when chasing a buying position. However, if the golden cross is confirmed, it would be advisable to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy, as buying momentum remains strong. Today’s primary strategy should be selling at the 5-day moving average resistance level, making it advantageous to sell at resistance areas near the 5-day line. With strong upward momentum and potential pre-market consolidation due to economic data announcements, a box-range trading approach would be ideal. OIL Oil closed higher, encountering resistance near the $74 level. The daily chart shows that the 240-day moving average acted as support, with a bullish candle forming as oil prepares for another rebound attempt. The MACD still signals a sell trend, but consistent buying efforts could continue. As mentioned earlier, even if oil rises, it’s likely to face pullbacks at certain levels. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has been confirmed, with a double-bottom pattern forming alongside a lower shadow, indicating a favorable buy-on-dip strategy. If a strong rebound occurs, prices could rise to the 10-day moving average around $75.50. Selling positions should be avoided for now, with a focus on buy-on-dip strategies. Additionally, be mindful of price volatility due to today’s inventory report. GOLD Gold closed higher, supported by the 10-day moving average on the daily chart. The MACD and signal line on the daily chart still show separation, and gold has recovered both the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, making a buy-on-dip strategy effective. For April contracts, it is crucial to see whether gold can break above $2,815 on the weekly chart and form a bullish candle. Be cautious of increased volatility in gold prices resulting from today’s FOMC meeting outcomes. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is on the verge of a golden cross. If gold fails to see additional significant gains, the price could form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If the MACD fails to build further upward momentum and starts to fall, a third wave of selling could occur, so keeping this scenario in mind is advised. The clear trend will likely be determined after today’s FOMC meeting, so monitoring gold’s movement after the announcement will be key. ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21,520 / 21,475 / 21,410 / 21,375 / 21,290 -Sell: 21,610 / 21,700 / 21,770 / 21,900 OIL - Range-bound Market -Buy: 73.65 / 73.10 / 72.60 -Sell: 74.60 / 75.00 / 75.50 / 76.00 GOLD - Bullish Market(April) -Buy: 2,791 / 2,787 / 2,783 / 2,775 -Sell: 2,804 / 2,809 / 2,821 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ plunged to close lower, influenced by China’s Deepseek developments. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remained intact, and the gap-down movement pushed the MACD further downward, resulting in a sharp decline in the NASDAQ index. On the daily chart, a gap was created as a bearish candle formed with a high opening price. Given the moving average trends, breaching the 120-day moving average in the current range could trigger a downward wave, threatening the 240-day moving average as well. However, the MACD on the daily chart has not yet crossed below the signal line (dead cross), so it’s worth observing whether the market rebounds to form a box range or continues its downward momentum. If the 120-day moving average is breached, a drop to the 240-day moving average is possible. It would also be prudent to consider levels as low as 19,800, which aligns with the 10-day moving average on the monthly chart and the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. On the 240-minute chart, a steep decline is evident, with the MACD and signal line falling sharply below the zero line. The angle suggests that further downward movement is likely, making sell strategies favorable during upward corrections. With the VIX index surging, volatility has intensified. Traders using one-contract strategies should consider scaling down their leverage—e.g., by using micro NASDAQ contracts or splitting positions into smaller increments like 0.01 lots through MetaTrader—allowing for more flexible risk management in these volatile conditions. OIL Oil closed lower, finding support at the 240-day moving average. This is a key level, as it overlaps with a prior resistance zone, making a pullback buy strategy effective in this range. However, the MACD has crossed below the signal line (dead cross), maintaining the sell signal, and this suggests that any rebound is likely to face significant pullbacks. Rebounds are expected to occur within a large box range, with the market likely undergoing time corrections to align the moving averages. On the 240-minute chart, sell signals are evident. Even with further declines, the 240-minute chart indicates that the 240-day moving average could act as strong support, potentially allowing a rebound toward the 60-day moving average, which corresponds to approximately $76. This aligns with a resistance level seen on the daily chart, making a pullback buy strategy advisable near this zone. Oil prices are also being influenced by the strengthening dollar, fueled by global market volatility. While AI-related factors have contributed to the dollar’s strength, the impact on oil prices is expected to be limited, with oil maintaining its own unique volatility. GOLD Gold plunged to close lower due to dollar strength amid heightened volatility. On the weekly chart, the MACD resumed its downward trajectory, with the gold price showing a steep decline. The MACD has not been able to cross above the signal line decisively, consistent with its pattern. On the daily chart, it is critical to monitor whether the 10-day moving average provides support during the current downtrend. On the 240-minute chart, MACD divergence accompanied gold’s sharp decline. However, since the MACD and signal line are still above the zero line, there may be room for a rebound. It’s essential to check for support and recovery near the 2,730 level. If prices rebound, gold could aim to test previous highs based on the daily chart trend. Avoid chasing prices lower with aggressive selling; instead, focus on pullback buying strategies. If the NASDAQ continues its decline and gold follows suit, further downside toward 2,700 is possible. Overall, buying during pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but strict risk management with stop-loss levels is crucial. The volatility in U.S. markets has increased due to China’s Deepseek developments. As always, heightened volatility in futures markets presents both opportunities and risks. Traders who can maintain disciplined strategies may capitalize on this environment, while those who cannot may risk significant losses. With Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, as well as earnings reports from Tesla and Meta on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, market volatility is expected to remain high. Wishing you success in trading this week! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21,260 / 21,140 / 21,100 / 21,040 / 21,890 -Sell: 21,365 / 21,415 / 21,480 / 21,540 / 21,660 OIL - Range-bound Market -Buy: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.60 -Sell: 73.55 / 74.40 / 75.00 / 75.95 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy: 2,739 / 2,733 / 2,726 / 2,716 -Sell: 2,754 / 2,760 / 2,767 / 2,776 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Bounce from Support or Rally to $80?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). Crude Oil Futures Update Our prior trade idea from January 13 played out well, with Scenario 1 materializing. While prices briefly approached $80, crude oil futures have since retreated to trade near the $74 handle. As we close out January, here’s an updated map of key levels to watch: Key Observations: On the chart, we can see a downtrend channel after the recent push higher in crude oil. Our blue zone is our LIS (73.65 - 74 zone). We see the market pulling back towards the confluence of 2024 VAH, 2024 mid range and 2025 yearly open. This is our key support for bulls to take long trade. Scenario 1: Down and Back Up Watch for a pullback toward the key confluence zone from our LIS. A bounce from this confluence zone could offer a strong opportunity for bulls to take long trades, targeting higher levels. Scenario 2: Rally Toward $80 If prices reclaim the January 2025 mid-range and confirm bullish setups, long trades targeting a move back toward monthly highs in the $80 range may develop. For risk management during volatile conditions, traders can consider Micro Crude Oil Futures . Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
1
Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy. In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively. 2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures o Contract Specifications: Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity. o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL): Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract. Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies. o Margins: Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility). Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract. The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements: U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices. Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices. Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include: Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices. U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days. Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are: Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward. U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand. Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles: Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures. Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets. 7. Risk Management Strategies Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include: Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings. Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades. 8. Conclusion Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market. By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for Jan 26 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Disclaimer The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions. The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Tradius_Trades
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ closed lower, finding support at the 5-day moving average. Last Friday unfolded as expected, with a correction to the 5-day line being part of the wave pattern, making a sell-oriented approach the best strategy for the day. The downward wave emerged in the afternoon rather than during the pre-market, resulting in extended consolidation. On the weekly chart, it formed a bullish candle, reaching the upper range of the box zone; however, the MACD has yet to fully cross above the signal line. This week, the area between the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (20,800–20,600) could act as a short-term pullback buying zone. If this area fails to hold and prices close lower with a bearish candle, the market might revert to maintaining a wide-ranging box zone. Therefore, it's crucial to close the week with a bullish candle to confirm a buy signal. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are positioned above the zero line, indicating that buying pressure could persist. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting that significant additional surges are unlikely. A short-term correction perspective is advisable. If prices fail to decisively break above the 3-day moving average near 21,950, a correction to the 10-day moving average should be considered. The 240-minute chart shows the emergence of a long bearish candle forming a double top. If Friday’s low at 21,844 is breached, there’s a strong likelihood of filling the gap created on January 22. The MACD and signal line still show a significant gap from the zero line, so there could be support and a rebound at the lower levels. In summary, while a short-term sell perspective is advisable, buying opportunities could emerge near the gap-filling zone around 21,700 during pullbacks. OIL Oil closed higher at $74, finding support and forming a bullish daily candle for the first time in six trading sessions. This bounce establishes a foothold at the key support level of $74. On the weekly chart, prices found support at the 5-day moving average. Although the MACD has crossed above the zero line, the signal line is still slightly below it. If a bullish candle forms this week, it will confirm a buy signal on the weekly chart, favoring buy-oriented strategies. On the daily chart, prices could rise again, finding support at the 20-day moving average. However, the sharp downward angle of the recent decline from $79 and the ongoing sell signal from the MACD indicate that any rally may face resistance and pullbacks. If prices rebound to the $77–$78 range, there is a high probability of a pullback. The $74–$79 range is likely to hold, with a period of consolidation allowing moving averages to converge. On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence is forming near $74, and the MACD is on the verge of generating a buy signal. A buy-oriented strategy on pullbacks is advisable. GOLD Gold closed higher with an upper shadow on the daily candle. On the weekly chart, prices reached the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD, however, has yet to achieve a golden cross above the signal line, keeping the sell signal intact. A strong rally with a long bullish candle would be required to confirm a buy signal. If additional upward momentum fails and prices start to decline, the MACD may turn downward again. The current gap between the MACD and signal line suggests that an immediate buy signal might not be achievable. On the daily chart, buying pressure remains strong, and as long as the 10-day moving average holds, a one-way buying trend is likely. On the 240-minute chart, resistance is evident at higher levels, and divergence in the MACD could occur. It’s advisable to avoid chasing prices higher. Given the staircase-like upward movement, a buy-oriented approach on pullbacks is recommended. This Week’s Key Events: FOMC meeting (Wednesday) Tesla and Meta earnings reports (Wednesday) Apple earnings report (Thursday) Expect heightened volatility on Wednesday and Thursday. Good luck with your investments this week! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21,850 / 21,785 / 21,720 / 21,630 / 21,530 -Sell: 21,970 / 22,010 / 22,055 / 22,105 OIL - Range-bound Market -Buy: 74.15 / 73.40 / 72.80 / 72.40 -Sell: 75.20 / 75.95 / 76.40 / 77.10 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy: 2,774 / 2,768 / 2,762 / 2,752 -Sell: 2,782 / 2,793 / 2,799 / 2,816 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Setting New LimitsWe’ve been patiently waiting for an entry at $58, but the market hasn’t reached our level. After reassessing the chart, we believe it’s now more profitable to play CL1! as a long following what appears to have been a fake breakout. Recent developments, including Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency to “unlock the liquid gold under our feet” and prioritize U.S. oil and gas development, could bolster bullish sentiment in the energy sector. If our wave count is correct, we are currently in intra wave 2 of wave ((iii)). If this setup holds, a target of at least $115 seems achievable. We are placing our limit order and will patiently wait to get filled. Key Levels at the moment: Support Zone: $67.70–$64.40 Resistance Zone: $85–$88
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed higher, supported by the 3-day moving average on the daily chart. After a recent surge, it has reached the upper Bollinger Band, with both the MACD and signal line crossing above the zero line, confirming a buy signal. However, due to the sharp rally, there is potential for a pullback today. If the price retraces to the 5-day moving average, it could consolidate within a range, allowing moving averages to converge. Should the NASDAQ fall further, the key question is whether it will fill the gap near 21700. If the gap remains unfilled and the price breaks higher, the daily buy signal would stay intact, potentially accelerating bullish momentum. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains active despite a rebound. Selling at higher levels is preferable, while watching if the MACD avoids falling below the zero line and instead forms a golden cross with the signal line. Focus on dip-buying and selling at resistance, keeping the potential for a pullback to the 5-day moving average in mind. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, falling below the $75 level. It ended near the midpoint of the large bullish candle from January 10 ($74.66) after further downside pressure. This week’s decline reflects President Trump’s push to lower oil prices. Currently, crude is near the 20-day moving average and within the $74–$75 support zone, which aligns with the weekly 5-day moving average. This area is suitable for swing trading and dip-buying strategies. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, creating a short-term sell signal. However, the significant divergence from the zero line suggests that crude may consolidate with bullish candles before attempting another upward move. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has not yet formed a golden cross with the signal line, but selling pressure has weakened significantly. If a golden cross occurs, a strong rebound could follow. Avoid chasing shorts and focus on buying dips at key levels. GOLD Gold rebounded from key support levels, closing flat with a lower wick on the daily candle. The daily chart shows that bullish momentum remains strong, making dip-buying at major support levels the preferred strategy. Gold touched the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart before pulling back, indicating that a clear trend may not emerge until next week. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal formed at the recent high, with the MACD divergence leading to a sharp decline. While the price is recovering, the sell signal remains active, increasing the likelihood of another pullback. Gold appears to be consolidating within a range, building energy for the next leg higher. Today, focus on box-range trading with selling at resistance and buying at support. Be mindful of major economic data releases before the main session, and manage risks carefully. Best of luck with your trades, and have a successful end to the week! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Bullish Market -Buy: 21980 / 21910 / 21870 / 21790 / 21720 -Sell: 22040 / 22075 / 22110 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy: 74.10 / 73.40 / 73.00 / 72.40 -Sell: 75.10 / 75.70 / 76.20 / 76.75 / 77.10 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2750 / 2743 / 2737 / 2731 -Sell: 2770 / 2774 / 2779 / 2785 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
6
Prime Buying Opportunity for Crude Oil Nearing Crude oil is currently consolidating around the $75 level. A glance at the daily MACD reveals a close but no crossover of the MACD and signal lines. A bearish close today could signal a downturn, but a bullish close would likely see the MACD resume its upward trend. Since its correction from $79, the price has been holding above the midpoint of the January 10th bullish candle at $74.66. This level, also coinciding with the 5-day moving average on the weekly chart, is a crucial support zone. Given the significant volume accumulated in the first week of January, this presents a compelling opportunity for aggressive swing trading. Today's oil inventory report is expected to act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal. While the market is bearish on oil supply expansion due to Trump's election, technical analysis suggests further upside potential. We recommend adopting a buy-on-dip strategy. For daily insights into Nasdaq, oil, and gold, please follow and subscribe to my analysis.
TVC:USOILLong
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed higher on news of President Trump’s plans to expand AI investments. It surged strongly to the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, lifting the MACD above the zero line. However, a gap formed due to Netflix's earnings report, and there is a possibility that this gap could be filled during future corrections. While the signal line remains below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating the potential for a pullback, strong buying momentum on the 240-minute chart suggests the NASDAQ could rise further to the 22200–22300 zone. A sell-off might emerge only if the MACD on the 240-minute chart dead crosses the signal line, signaling a shift to a bearish trend. There is also upside potential to 22250, the upper boundary of the weekly chart, so it's wise to keep this level in mind. For now, focus on buying dips, but keep an eye on the transition from an uptrend (positive alignment) to a downtrend (negative alignment) on the short-term charts. If the 240-minute MACD dead crosses, it could signal a correction, so monitor the price movements closely. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, consolidating in a box range near the $75 level. The large bullish candle from January 10 serves as a key reference point, with the midpoint of that candle acting as a support level. For a rebound on the daily chart, a bullish candle needs to form. Currently, the MACD is closely aligned with the signal line. If the MACD avoids a dead cross and turns upward, there’s a high chance of a third bullish wave. Keep an eye on the upcoming crude oil inventory data to see if it triggers a trend reversal. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting to cross above the signal line in the oversold zone, showing a potential for a rebound. With prolonged consolidation around $75, a strong upward move could follow any breakout. Avoid chasing shorts, and if the price drops to $74, it could provide a great buying opportunity. GOLD Gold closed higher, breaking above the 2760 resistance level. This breakout opens the possibility of further gains to the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, around 2780. However, the divergence between the MACD and the signal line on the weekly chart makes a further golden cross less likely, meaning a correction could occur in the next week or two. On the daily chart, the bullish trend remains strong, making it advisable to avoid short positions. The 240-minute chart shows a third bullish wave following a golden cross of the MACD, supporting further gains. Ideally, continued strength above 2780 would prevent a divergence from forming on the MACD, which could lead to a sharp decline if unaddressed. For now, use 2760 as support and focus on range-bound trading while monitoring for a potential breakout above key levels. Always be prepared for volatility and manage risk carefully. Positive market momentum is being driven by new government policies and plans, including tariffs, the Stargate Project, and expanded AI infrastructure investments. These developments could act as catalysts for further gains. Stay updated on these issues, and as always, manage your risks carefully. Best of luck with your trading today! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21920 / 21870 / 21790 / 21720 -Sell: 22035 / 22075 / 22135 / 22230 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy: 75.10 / 74.70 / 74.30 / 73.60 -Sell: 75.70 / 76.20 / 76.75 / 77.10 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2759 / 2754 / 2748 / 2738 -Sell: 2771 / 2778 / 2783 / 2794 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard