Get started

Crudeoilwti

Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea with a slightly different count on October contract > Possibly in wave 5 now but the yellow wave iii could also be C wave and that could mean we're already in impulsive move down, key price is at the red line as crossing this will invalidate it (wave 4 crossing wave 1). Some nice fib levels in subwaves of wave iii (yellow) > Some nice fib levels in subwaves of 3 (white) > Zoomed in on the ABC from Fridays high of day to low of day it looks like a nice 5-3-5 structure > It will be interesting to see how this count develops on Monday morning, if it does complete 5 waves then that could be a larger degree wave 1, or wave A.
NYMEX:CLV2018
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaPlease ignore this idea > I forgot to plot any potential outcome (its late here) :) An update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice Fibonacci relationships > 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3 termination, 1:1 of wave 3 for wave 5 termination Zoomed in those waves you can see the ending diagonal for wave 5 of 5 > I'll let the current waves develop and attempt to plot some waves once things settle down but on 5min timeframe there is already some nice Fibonacci relationships > I think one possibility is a WXYXZ back to the level of wave 4 in the impulsive move up and the 0.382 retracement level >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA bearish alternative to this idea > And smaller timeframe analysis to this theory > I think it's possible that Fridays movement was an ABC to complete a larger degree wave 4. If you look on the 5m chart here > You can see 5 waves up (orange) before a pull back to the .236 level then up for one more wave which could be C; from the top there appears to be a starting wedge for what could be wave 1 down. The key level for this theory to play out is Fridays high, above that level then the move is invalid (wave 2 crossing wave 1 starting point).
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice Fibonacci relationships > 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3 termination, 1:1 of wave 3 for wave 5 termination Zoomed in those waves you can see the ending diagonal for wave 5 of 5 > I'll let the current waves develop and attempt to plot some waves once things settle down but on 5min timeframe there is already some nice Fibonacci relationships >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to previous idea > I previously theorized that C wave (I now have this as Y) would terminate at the 0.618 extension of A wave, however, it appears to have stopped short at the 0.5 extension; it's possible that the correction is completed and now on to new highs, or a more complex correction as shown in the chart. If WXY is not completed at 6613 maybe a more complex correction with X(2) and Y to follow to make WXYXZ. X(2) must be at least equal equal in length to Y so at least $70,40 for X wave if this turns out to be WXYXZ, followed by Z which must be at least equal in length to X(2) which may take us down to the 0.382 level at $64. If WXY is completed at the current level then we could go on to see new highs for 2018.
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to previous ideas on correction in crude oil > I previously had this down as an ABC but that doesn't seem to fit anymore so its possible that it is a WXY. Previously I had the first section as A with a WXYXZ correction but as per the rules for WXY W must be a zig-zag and looking at it again it is possible > A had 5 waves with a starting wedge wave 1 and a .236 correction for wave 4. X can be any type of pattern and that appears to be WXY with Y completing at the 1.272 extension of W > Z must be a zig-zag and must be, at minimum, equal or bigger than wave X which puts it back to 6785 which is the 1.414 extension of W. A of X must be a starting wedge or impulsive 5 waves and it appears there could be a wedge > So its possible we're in wave B of Y now with C to follow to at least 6785.
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
1
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to previous WXYXZ idea > I probably shouldn't get too hooked on the idea that this pattern appears the same as the one back in June as I could end up missing what's actually going on. Below is the period between 18th June and 21st June with what appears to be a large extended flat correction with B wave a WXY > Y extended 1.414 of W to complete B then C down to the 1.272 extension of A. Since last Friday we appear to have a similar structure and today could be B wave > Y of B extended to 1.272 of W to complete what could be B wave, and potentially now C to the 1.272 extension. If it goes much higher I will have to admit defeat in my battle to master WXY and WXYXZ corrections :)
TVC:USOILShort
by Joseph_King
2
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaExcuse the long post, it's Saturday, the market closed and too much coffee this morning :) I just wanted to share my analysis and why I believe Crude Oil can reach the $78 level; this is an update to a previous theory There are notes in the chart with reference to the daily MA20, the similarities between the drops from 7290 and 7520 and the daily candle pattern and below smaller timeframe wave analysis. Through 18th and 19th June (highlighted in the box in the below chart) there was a 5 wave impulse move upwards followed by a correction (WXYXZ) to the 0.618 level > If you compare this movement to 2nd and 3rd August the same wave pattern is there > 5 waves up followed by a complex WXYXZ to the 0.618 level; I theorized at the time that it was just a WXY > but it turned out to be much more complex even though the same expected level was met at 0.618. After 18th June first impulse up the correction appears to have been an expanded flat with C wave terminating at the 1.272 extension > Wave 3 then went on to the 3.618 extension moving up $9 from wave 2 termination point > I think its very hard to predict such a correction pattern but if early next week plays out in a similar way to the days following 18th and 19th of June we may have completed wave A on Friday and we're now in subwaves of B, possibly in WXY > It could mean a double bottom before going up for the big wave 3 > Smaller timeframe idea here >
TVC:USOILLong
by Joseph_King
Bullish reversal still in progress. 67 support solidified. Long.The first curve reversal pattern failed (dotted) as Wednesday's bearish Inventory build knocked down the price just below the previous 1D support level at 67.00. The move began its pricing the day before indicating that such fundamentals are now typically priced before the reports (indicating that the dominant trend can be identified as opposite to speculation). Despite the oversupply, the 67.00 support was quickly bought and solidified, indicating that the underlying long term trend is still bullish with 1W RSI = 54.669, MACD = 2.450. Despite being near the 67.00 support level, 1D remains neutral (RSI = 47.301, STOCH = 48.472, Highs/Lows = 0), indicating that a bottom has been made. The goal for this week's closing is to rally as much as possible and ideally hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 70.76. Our targets remain 71.88 and 72.86 in extension.
FX:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
1