USDWTI Daily. Being 2 steps ahead.Hello everyone. I hope it goes all well for You. I have been working this set up out this evening. Crude Oil seems to be struggling and is not giving us a wild rally eventhough we had two consecutive very bullish stockpile reports. The first one that came out on July the 6th has not endured the bears pressure and session closed much lower than the days high. Have a look Yourself and please share Your view at this idea with us! It may be a little bit too optimistic and too far ahead reaching, but what makes us successfull if not being endlessly positive about our own ideas? As You can see above we have a bullish butterly forming out in the space of the next several weeks. The trend has been respected as well as supply/demand levels along with fibonacci have been accomplished. I hope the idea is well explained. Should You have any questions, advises or even different, more sensible idea? Feel free to message me!
Crudeoilwti
Oil Remains A SellThe daily time frame shows that oil is heading to the lower orange trend line again. Stoch indicator is also supporting this indicator thats its a clear sell. Oil is also still setting lower highs and lower lows.
However, oil has already completed the bearish 5 wave Elliot structure. This is usually followed by a by bullish wave structure and indeed we can see a green wave after the 5th bearish wave. this green wave could be the 1st wave of the bullish wave structure an are now in the 2nd wave which is down. How ever this 2nd wave cant break the start of wave 1 meaning that very soon price will reverse back up again into the 3rd wave. An easy way to find this out is the Red Trend Line. If the daily candle closes above the Red Trend Line its a buy with 1st target at the Purple Trend Line and 2nd target and the Red Trend Line.
Trading advice:
1. Sell with a stop a bit above the red trend line. Target is the orange lower range. (If stop gets hit and daily candle closes above the red line then switch to buying)
2. If you dont feel comfortable with selling then either wait with buying till price has hit the lower orange range or till the daily candle closes above the red trend line.
Crude Oil looks like the bottom has been made (Elliott Wave)Previously I was considering that the up move from 42 levels was a Wave 4 and that we still had a leg down remaining, however it clearly was not the case as that count was invalidated today.
The count published in this post is the most likely scenario for WTI Crude Oil.
As per this count we are in an impulsive move from the 42 levels and currently in Wave iii of Wave (iii) which suggests that we have a lot of upside remaining.
There is still a slight probability that we might get a connecting Wave x which will follow another leg down, however that would only be clarifies in the sessions to come.
I will update further as this market progresses.
$WFT gap up incoming$USDWTI rebound likely to continue (shale profitable > $45), $WFT oversold conditions developing large gap similar to last year (followed by immediate upward correction); new CEO is a positive, potential upcoming divestments. Technicals and fundamentals seem to align for a pop on this within the next week or two, followed by possible uptrend into earnings and beyond, depending on guidance.
Possible ending diagonal in Crude Oil (Elliott Wave AnalysiCrude looks to have formed a reversal right at the crucial support level of 46.90, if this support level is held then this is most likely an Ending Diagonal in Wave C.
If things go as expected this market will see levels above 51.95 in the upcoming sessions.
I will update further as this market progresses.
US Oil (WTI)- After OPEC production cuts. Oil resuming downtrend after a rally from major support @ $45.25 to the top of the daily descending channel @ $51.75. The recent catalyst for this strong rejection of resistance was caused by Oil news after the OPEC meeting where they decided to cut Oil productions for another 6 months to reduce the supply glut. This is good for Oil prices as supplies have been cut throughout 2017, unfortunately the market was hoping for a longer period of supply cuts from anywhere between 9 months to a year.
USOIL IdeaI believe WTI has entered the consolidation zone and is now looking for the correct direction. Experts state that OPEC will continue with production cuts and look to extend them to November but U.S. shale producers and OPEC members not involved in production cuts (Libya, Nigeria, Iran, and Iran due to failing economies) continue to ramp up production. Unless OPEC can come up with an extraordinary measure, I believe Crude Oil will fall below what we saw last week. And the fall we be swift. In the mid term, I believe US Oil will continue to trade between low $40s and mid $50s so i will continue to range trade.
Please comment your viewpoints below.
USOIL pre OPEC meeting movement / possibilities.Here we have possible movement for USOIL in the next week (until the OPEC meeting).
The blue frame showed that the huge liquidation that happened a few days ago stopped right at the 2.0 WL, with a huge impulse returning back in. That gave us a major pivot (new C) for the orange frame. Price has been following both since. It has currently bounced strong off the ML of the blue frame (almost touching the 0.5 of the orange - energy point)
I believe the following will happen:
1. A small but healthy retrace to the major TL(A) in this swing.
2. If the price continues to respect it, major impulse to break the ML of the blue and 0.5 of the orange
3. Continuation in the swing with big impulses up and small healthy retracements, following the TL(A).
4. OPEC meeting time aligns with the convergence of the TL(A), projected TL(B), MLH (1.0) of the orange frame and 0.5 of the blue frame.
5. There, I expect consolidation and two possibilities: 1. Formation of a new pivot in case of massive selling after the news, dropping to several Support points or 2. Huge impulse up on the OPEC news and continuation on the TL(A) making, quite possibly, a new HOY.
6. However, if we don't manage to pass the blue frame ML and orange frame 0.5, and BREAK the strong TL(A), price might be going to the horizontal TL(C), consolidating there, giving more questions than answers towards more movement. I do think, however, this is a much less likely scenario than the continuous upmove into the OPEC meeting.
Entries:
Long entry @48.60 to 48.75 / Trgt1: 51.25 Trgt2: 53.00+ (after OPEC for people who want to risk it) / SL: Below the TL(A), wherever that is depending on the time of your entry.
I'll be updating maps with each day, following this closely.
Good luck with your trading, stay frosty.
Nick
CL on a larger TF / Start of crucial two months for USOILThis shows what, in my opinion, CL might do in the next couple of months. CL will reveal its hand on the day of the OPEC meeting (whatever people think, OPEC WILL create a strong reaction). After that meeting, the candle we get is going to show many things. However, I believe movement after the meeting, into summer, will be much more interesting and violent. It will be very strong, giving us a new HOY or a new LOY. During these months, I will provide maps daily / weekly showing what I think will be happening on smaller TF's using primarily Andrews, Indis and PA.
A: If we manage to get above the 1y TL, in my opinion it will drift around it until the OPEC meeting. Then we might see a surge to the TL5, quite possibly will try to take it out. If price manage to get above it, I believe new HOY will appear. If the OPEC candle will be anything like November, it is more than likely.
B: If we don't retake the 1y TL2, might retest the low (and TL3) around 44.60, which would on a bigger TF make a double bottom of sort. Then surge into OPEC meeting and the decision in the blue cluster.
Looking a bit further ahead, at July, that cluster (blue circle) might be very interesting, and a likely target for consolidation before the most important move in 2017 (after all the geopolitical nonsense and OPEC). If that TL5 isn't taken out with the OPEC candle, it might provide the roof for price and a consolidation zone.
Crude Oil WTI Bearish 3rd waveCrude Oil WTI daily time frame.
Looks to be in the process of a 3rd Elltiot
wave.
Stoch Rsi shows selling pressure and
DMI a strong bearish trend. Price also broke
through the 72 EMA. 3rd wave should beat
the low of wave 1. Meaning WTI might break 47.80.
Crude Oil WTI is a strong sell.
Crude Oil Continues Sell Off, 48.20 in SightMid-Day Update: Crude Oil continued to decline through the morning session today and looks intent on tagging the previous pivot low from 4/27 at 48.20.
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.