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DXY

Analysis of EUR/USD: A Strategic Insight for TradersThe EUR/USD currency pair has extended its rally for the third consecutive day, trading near the 1.0430 level during Monday’s Asian session. This uptick is primarily driven by remarks from members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and expectations of delayed interest rate cuts in the Eurozone. However, the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a stronger U.S. Dollar (USD) could cap the Euro’s gains in the short term. Fundamental Factors Influencing EUR/USD European Central Bank (ECB) Robert Holzmann, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated that further rate cuts might be delayed. He highlighted recent inflation spikes and emphasized the inflationary pressures stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff policies, which may slow economic growth but increase inflation. Delayed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets anticipate the ECB to slow down rate cuts due to rising inflation and the need for economic stabilization. U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) The Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points during the December meeting, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts anticipated for 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell: He reiterated that the central bank would approach further rate cuts cautiously. Impact on USD: The Fed's hawkish messaging has bolstered the USD, acting as a counterweight to the EUR/USD rally. Economic Policies under the Trump Administration Tariffs and Tax Cuts: The administration’s policies are expected to intensify inflationary pressures, potentially altering the Fed’s monetary policy outlook in favor of the USD. Short-to-Medium Term Outlook for EUR/USD Bullish Scenario : Signals of delayed ECB rate cuts and improved Eurozone economic data could sustain support for the Euro. Bearish Scenario : Continued hawkish Fed messaging, coupled with strong U.S. economic data, could exert downward pressure on EUR/USD.. Technical Analysis: Pivotal Levels in Play Weekly Momentum: Momentum indicators on the weekly timeframe highlight persistent selling pressure, aligning with the prior bearish analysis. Key Support Levels: The price is trading near the confluence of the lower boundary of a neutral channel and the median line of the Andrews Pitchfork, intensifying the sensitivity of this zone. Potential Breakdown: The momentum suggests a higher likelihood of breaking below this support unless weekly price action signals a reversal by surging and breaking above the 1.0534 resistance level. Conclusion and Call to Action This analysis outlines critical fundamental and technical elements shaping the EUR/USD’s trajectory. With key macroeconomic events and technical levels at play, traders should stay vigilant for decisive moves. 👉 What’s Your Move? If you find this analysis insightful, hit the Boost button and share it with your trading community. Let’s navigate these markets together—profitably!
Short
by Mohammad_Mirdehghan
XAUUSD - Gold reached its previous day's target!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and has exited its short-term bullish channel. The correction of the price of gold towards the demand zones will provide the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. In the early days of 2025, gold prices surged by over $40, regaining some of the losses from December and once again capturing investors’ attention. Although December’s decline in gold prices was not significant, it was disappointing for many investors—especially considering the positive news at the start of December 2024 that the Chinese central bank had resumed its gold purchases after a months-long pause. Several key factors are currently shaping the outlook for the gold market. First, the release of China’s economic data on January 7 is expected to play a crucial role in influencing the market. Second, the weak start to 2025 for Chinese equities and domestic investors’ disappointment with the lack of tangible economic stimuli, particularly in the consumer sector, have acted as supportive factors for gold. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s interest rates and the strength of the US dollar remain important elements to watch. While US bond yields dipped slightly today, the dollar remains strong. For gold to replicate its impressive 2024 performance, a reversal in the dollar’s upward trajectory will be essential. Gold had a very strong performance in 2024, but it now appears to be entering a phase of range-bound movement for a period. Historically, gold has exhibited back-and-forth fluctuations, and with US interest rates continuing to rise, this trend could work against it. Analysts estimate that the $2,500 level could serve as a price floor in the first quarter of 2025. Any price dips are likely to attract buying pressure, though a significant upward breakout is not expected. A key factor that could support gold would be a decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield. For instance, if the 10-year yield drops below 4%, it could trigger a significant rise in gold prices. However, there is little interest in selling gold under current conditions.It is predicted that gold’s behavior in 2025 will resemble its performance in 2021, where buyers were present but no substantial upward movement occurred. Should gold break above the $2,800 level, this could trigger major changes and push prices toward the $3,000 mark. It would not be surprising if this happens at some point during 2025. However, the first few months of the year are expected to favor range-bound price movements.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → Breaking the resistance level. Growing interestFX:XAUUSD enjoys interest despite the growing dollar. Geopolitical and economic crisis is the reason for seeking safe harbor. The price is breaking resistance and trying to renew local highs On the first trading day of the new 2025, gold rose along with DXY amid escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and eastern Europe and rising tensions around the upcoming policies of Trump and the Fed. Traders are awaiting US manufacturing PMI data from ISM and the Fed President's speech due later on Friday for more trade stimulus for the gold price. Support levels: 2649, 2639 Resistance levels: 2675, 2690 A false breakdown of key support areas is possible. If after the false breakdown the bulls hold the defense above 2639 - 2649, gold may strengthen to 2675 - 2690 in the short term. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
4
NZDUSD - The uptrend of the dollar is over?!The NZDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that range with appropriate risk reward. A valid break of the support area will provide us with the continuation of the downward path of this currency pair. At the beginning of 2025, the US dollar has continued its upward trajectory, solidifying its position as one of the leading global currencies. After delivering a strong performance in 2023 and 2024, the dollar has now risen by more than 1% against the euro and the British pound, outpacing other major currencies. From an economic news perspective, recent reports have had little impact on the market. While data on jobless claims, affected by holiday factors, were assessed positively, reports such as construction spending and manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. However, these statistics failed to create significant market movement, with US Treasury yields seeing only a slight uptick. According to data published by S&P Global, the US manufacturing PMI for December 2024 stood at 49.4, a slight decline from 49.7 in November. This figure remains below the 50-point threshold, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity. Nonetheless, there has been a slight recovery from the mid-month figure of 48.3. Manufacturing output in November declined for the fourth consecutive month, hitting its lowest level in 18 months. Additionally, new orders continued to fall, though at a slower pace compared to previous months. However, export orders experienced a steeper decline, primarily driven by economic weakness in Europe and Australia. In the employment sector, there has been modest yet positive growth for the second consecutive month, reflecting manufacturers’ efforts to retain their workforce. Input cost inflation has reached its highest level since August 2024, largely due to concerns over trade tariffs and potential protectionist policies. Approximately 25% of firms attributed their increased purchases to tariff threats, highlighting concerns over the inflationary effects of such policies. Despite current challenges, manufacturers are increasingly optimistic about the future. This optimism, which has reached its highest level in two and a half years, stems from reduced uncertainties following the elections and positive expectations of stronger economic growth and supportive government policies in 2025. However, the gap between current production levels and future expectations has reached its widest point in a decade, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. The main driver behind the strength of the US dollar is capital inflows. While the US economy appears robust, this alone does not explain the dollar’s growth. A confluence of positive factors has made US assets attractive, with the country’s stock markets outperforming other global markets. Currently, a significant portion of global capital formation is concentrated in the US dollar and its markets. Nevertheless, risks such as rising tariffs or restrictive fiscal policies could alter the dollar’s trajectory. For now, the market shows little concern about the Republican-led Congress, and the US dollar continues to assert its dominance in global markets. Donald Trump, the US President-elect, recently tweeted that tariffs have brought immense wealth to the country and that he plans to continue these policies after assuming office on January 20. Trump also referenced border issues, calling Joe Biden the “worst president in US history.” The chief asset strategist at HSBC Bank highlighted the hawkish messages from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting as a cause for concern. January is expected to be highly volatile, but these fluctuations could present intriguing investment opportunities.
Short
by Ali_PSND
🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback. The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency. The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro. However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks. What’s going on? The answer is two-fold. 👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens. 👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades. Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.
by Pandorra
2
DXY: HTF Analysis (72D)What’s Happening Now on the High-Timeframe? The DXY measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. On the 72-day chart, we’re seeing signs of a potential shift, but the overall trend is still in downtrend territory. Keep an eye on how the price reacts to these levels and stay ready to adjust your strategy! RESISTANCE (Areas where price struggles to rise above): If Resistance holds firm, Price Action could reach Support I (see below) If Resistance is strong, Price Action could short to Support II (see below) 118.53 (Sell Limit Order II): the 2nd resistance level for sellers 117.09 (Supply Zone): This is a hard ceiling for now, far above the current price. 113.50 (Sell Limit Order I): the 1st resistance level for sellers 110.29 (Resistance) If the price keeps getting stuck here, it might fall back down. SUPPORT (Areas where price might stop falling): 100.4180 (Support I): The first major safety net if the price drops. 95.8590: A deeper support that could attract buyers. 93.96 (Support II): The second major safety net if the price drops. 89.9269: A historical level where prices have bounced in the past. OSCILLATORS (Measure speed or momentum of price) Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 81.36, it suggests the price is overbought, meaning it’s been rising too fast and might slow down. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): At 134.004, it’s signaling a potential SELL since the price might drop soon. Momentum: Shows a weak SELL signal, suggesting the upward speed is losing steam. MACD: Shows a small BUY signal, meaning there’s still some upward energy left. MOVING AVERAGES (Track average price over time) Most moving averages (10-day, 20-day, etc.) show a BUY, meaning the price has been above its averages and is in an uptrend for now. Hull Moving Average: Shows a SELL signal, hinting at potential short-term weakness. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Good News (for buyers): The moving averages suggest that DXY is still in an upward move on shorter timeframes, with prices above key averages. The Bad News (for sellers): Oscillators like the RSI and Momentum show that the current upward push might be losing strength. The market might correct (fall) soon. If the price struggles to break 110.2990, it might fall back to 100.4180. A breakthrough above 112.5000 could lead to a move toward the 118.5326 zone. Even though we’re seeing some upward action now, the bigger trend is still downward. A reversal would need sustained movement above major resistance. If price falls: Look for potential rebounds around 100.4180 or 95.8590. If price rises: Be cautious as it approaches 112.5000, where sellers might come back in. Right now, DXY is facing challenges near 110.3990. If it can’t push higher, it’s likely to fall back to lower levels. Moving averages suggest strength, but oscillators are hinting at exhaustion. This mix of signals means you should be cautious and wait for clear moves.
ICEUS:DXY
by ProfessorCEWard
Apparently, bright days are ahead of DXYDXY has underwent a reversal: 1- A clean inverted head and shoulders 2- A dropping wedge break high (Which is a reversal at the end of the bearish move) 3- Break and retest of the inverted head and shoulders and the wedge simultaneously 4- Ichimoku cloud broken high as well, indicating the shifting trend bias Expect the target area as marked on the chart either by the end of this year or whenever FED announces rate cuts. Best of luck and happy trading!
TVC:DXYLong
by Uzi-Trades-Forex
2
DXY at 108.4: The Dollar’s Midlife Crisis—Breakout or Breakdown?Alright, traders, let’s not sugarcoat it. What you’re looking at here isn’t just another chart—it’s the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) standing at the gates of destiny. 💥 🔥 The Setup: Testing the almighty 108.4 resistance. Will it smash through like a battering ram or faceplant into oblivion? 🤔 Riding the top of the Bollinger Bands like it’s a rollercoaster at peak speed. Overbought much? 🎢 RSI? She’s chilling at 59 —neither here nor there but whispering “don’t count me out just yet.” 🧘‍♂️ 🚀 The Bullish Dream: Break 108.4, and this thing’s flying to the moon (or at least 112). Bulls will party like it’s 1985. 🐂💃 💀 The Bearish Nightmare: Rejected here? Say hello to a pullback at 104, and if things really hit the fan, we’re looking at 100.6. Bears will sip their coffee smugly. 🐻☕ But here’s the kicker: DXY isn’t just a chart—it’s the puppet master pulling the strings of everything from Bitcoin to gold to your morning cup of coffee. ☕ (Yes, inflation is still a thing.) ⚡ Final Word: Whether it breaks or bends, this is the make-or-break moment for the dollar. Get ready for fireworks. 🎇 George out. ✌️ #DXY #DollarIndex #Forex
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
2025 Outlook : DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, has shown notable strength in the last quarter of 2024. This trend is influenced by several key factors: 1) Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Concerns The Federal Reserve's renewed cautious approach to interest rate cuts has been pivotal in supporting the dollar's value. Concerns about inflation, potentially exacerbated by anticipated fiscal policies under President Donald Trump's administration, further contribute to this cautious monetary approach. The Fed's reluctance to reduce rates aggressively may continue to bolster the DXY. 2) Economic Performance and Trade Policies The U.S. economy's robust performance, coupled with expectations of new tariffs and tax reforms under the Trump administration, is anticipated to sustain the dollar's strength. However, these policies may lead to increased inflationary pressures, influencing the Fed's monetary decisions and, consequently, the DXY's trajectory. 3) Global Economic Comparisons Comparatively weaker economic growth in regions like Europe and Japan, where central banks maintain dovish policies, enhances the dollar's appeal. This divergence in economic performance and monetary policy stances contributes to the DXY's bullish outlook. Projections for the DXY in 2025 may vary. A rise to around the 115 level (2022 high), driven by the factors mentioned above, seems very likely. Additionally, based on the Fibonacci Extension, the DXY could possibly reach a high of 124.50 in the long-term. However, fluctuations are anticipated at those historic high levels, with some significant declines. While the current outlook for the DXY appears bullish, it's essential to consider potential risks, including: - Trade Policies: The implementation of new tariffs could introduce uncertainties affecting the dollar's value. - Global Economic Conditions: Improvements in other economies or shifts in their monetary policies could influence the DXY's trajectory. - Domestic Economic Indicators: Factors such as the U.S. budget deficit and overall economic health will play significant roles in shaping the dollar's strength.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
4
Weekly Forex Forecast: Last Show For 2024Dec 30th to Jan 3rd. USD is still strong, and so are the indices. I will be looking for buys until there is a significant bearish Break of Structure. A strong USD is a headwind for Gold, Silver and the other metals. It is also a headwind for GBP, EUR and the other majors. USDCHF, USDCAD and USDJPY should see some upside. Thank you for hangin' with me for 2024! I hope you found a benefit in my weekly forecasts this year. 2025 will be even better! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 107.49 1st Support: 106.72 1st Resistance: 108.52 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DXY at a Critical Juncture: Will Bulls Break the Resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently consolidating just above the ascending trendline while approaching a critical horizontal resistance zone around 108.00. The price action shows a contracting triangle pattern, suggesting indecision in the market. A breakout above the resistance could confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving the index toward 109.50 or higher. Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trendline and support zone could indicate bearish pressure, targeting the next key level at 106.50.
TVC:DXYLong
by unichartz