Get started

Earnings

PA #1 : NZDCAD BUY 27/11/24 SLFirst Post Analysis This explain my NZD CAD TRADE Here is the 3 main questions i answer: 1. what did i do right ? - Asking the right questions: is there activity/job today ? and if yes, where it is ? - Identification of fundamental high impact news - Confirmation of market reaction - identification of the asset (here NZD) - Conparision of the market reaction with the overall flow - Pair selection: pariring with the CAD which was weak plus high market reaction - Identification of the Power (previous day break and previous session break). Even if the loss is here, I still bought in the right direction and for a good price 2. what did i do wrong ? - Was wrong on the timing specifically, entered in a pullback when the sellers were still dominating. Didn't wait for the retest to confirm if the sellers are weak. - Too much Timeframes (30s) which create confusion. - Too stuck on a pattern, when the market won't necesseraly show the same way 2. What am I going to change from now - I will stick to the 2 TF (15 min and 3 min) or 1H and 15 min - I will wait for the sellers to fail and THEN look for the money spot. FINAL DAY: -2.76% OBJECTIF: +10%
Long
by elpatrondelamafia
2
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024) **SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well. Next resistance $5655and $5688 Next support $5521 and 5428 Weekly Sentiment = Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX. Next resistance $105.90 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to upside **Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Visualize $TSLA CALL pricing skew due to the upcoming earningsLet’s take a look at our new tradingview options screener indicator to see what we observe, as the options chain data has recently been updated. When we look at the screener, we can immediately see that NASDAQ:TSLA has an exceptional Implied Volatility Rank value of over 100, which is extremely high. This is clearly due to the upcoming earnings report on July 23rd. As we proceed, we notice that Tesla's Implied Volatility Index is also high, over 70. This means that not only the relative but also the absolute implied volatility of Tesla is high. Because the IVX value is above 30, Tesla’s IV Rank is displayed with a distinguishable black background. This favors credit strategies such as iron condors, broken wing butterflies, strangles, or simple short options. Next, let’s examine how this IV index value has changed over the past five days. We can see it has increased by more than 6%, indicating an upward trend as we approach the earnings report. In the next cell, we see a significant vertical price skew. Specifically, at 39 days to expiration, call options are 84% more expensive than put options at the same distance. This indicates that market participants are pricing in a significant upward movement in the options chain. The call skew is so pronounced that at 39 days to expiration, the 16 delta call value exits the expected range. This signifies a substantial delta skew twist, which I will show you visually. We see a horizontal IV index skew between the third and fourth weeks in the options chain. This means the front weekly IVX is lower than the IVX for the following week, which may favor calendar or diagonal strategies. Hovering over this with the mouse reveals it’s around the third and fourth week. In the last cell, we observe that there’s a horizontal IVX skew not just in weekly expirations but also between the second and third monthly expirations. Now, let’s see how these values appear visually on Tesla’s chart using our Options Overlay Indicator. On the right panel, the previously mentioned values are displayed in more detail when you hover over them with the mouse. The really exciting part is setting the 16 delta curve and seeing the extent of the upward shift in options pricing. This significant skew is also visible at closer delta values. When we enable the expected move and standard deviation curves, it immediately becomes clear what this severe vertical pricing skew in favor of call options means. Practically, market participants are significantly pricing in upward movement right after the earnings report. Hovering over the colored labels associated with the expirations displays all data precisely, showing the number of days until expiration and the high implied volatility index value for that expiration. Additionally, a green curve indicating overpricing due to extra interest is displayed. Weekly expiration horizontal IVX skew values appear in purple, and those affected by monthly skew are shown in turquoise blue. The 'Lite' version of our indicators is available for free to everyone, where you can also view Tesla as demonstrated. Pro indicators are available more than 150 US market symbols like SPY, S&P500, Nvidia, bonds, etfs and many others. Trade options like a pro with TanukiTrade Option Indicators for TradingView. Thank you for your attention.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by TanukiTrade
RIG - Good opportunity post-earnings drop with very tight stop We are seeing clear sell-side tapering with the orange algo and purple showing it's control. We are now retesting the breakout of strong selling magenta and coinciding with green buying continuation. This could be a very good opportunity knowing that if we don't hold green, we're out. However with a retest of magenta and a proven buying continuation lining up, I will definitely enter a position if the opportunity presents itself. Hope to be back more consistently in a week or two when I'm back in the states. Happy Trading :) - TraderDaddyOG
NYSE:RIGLong
by ReigningTrades
MS - Updated Analysis before earnings. Super healthy chartLove what i'm seeing here on Morgan Stanley pre=earnings next Tuesday. I want to see us continue to build liquidity in this very controlled orange selling channel where we can then find yellow to activate and bring us further up for a breakout of orange and beyond. My price target for the next few weeks is in the $99-104 range, earnings dependent. Obviously, as with any industry, if banks that are announcing earnings on Friday announce positive results, you can expect the rest of the industry to follow. This, in addition to the extremely healthy chart movements, has me very bullish on MS and interested in watching this stock closely. Happy Trading :) - TraderDaddyOG
NYSE:MSLong
by ReigningTrades
1
Gold- Is it the right time to buy some?Gold has been the go-to hedge against inflation and uncertain economic/political/social situations. But has it always given good returns? Not necessarily. There have been times when gold has been in a range or even in a downtrend for more than a decade. Eventually it might rise, sure, but will you be willing to wait for so long? Of what use is the profit if you cannot enjoy it in your lifetime. That said, if timed well, gold has also given phenomenal returns. So, in my opinion, it all comes down to finding the most probable time to buy and percentage of funds allocated, which should not and cannot be more than 25 to 30 percent, no matter what Robert Kiyosaki says. There is a lot to learn from him and a lot of what he says makes sense, but betting everything on Gold and Silver? Probably not.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Amit_Thakkar_
NVDA has topped. Sell it now.2023 has been an incredibly strong year for stocks. The Nasdaq rallied 38% in the first six months for one of the best starts to a year in history. This rally has been primarily led by an AI/tech theme that has been responsible for the bulk of these gains. That part of the rally is likely over, however… at least for now. Every bull market has a “theme” with leading stocks that set the pace. In the late 90s that was the dot-com bubble. In the 2009-2020 bull market that was big tech like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Google (hence the FAANG stocks moniker). The 2020-2021 bull market was led by “work-from-home” stocks like Zoom, Teladoc and Peloton. The 2023 bull market has been led by artificial intelligece. The leading stocks have been Meta, Microsoft, Dynatrace, MongoDB, Palantir, AMD, and the biggest leader of them all, Nvidia. Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs. Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected. Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion. They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news. But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before. This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year. In a bear market, like we had in 2022, what you want to see is the market going UP on BAD news. This is the sign that the low is in, and buyers are coming back in. We saw this on October 13, 2022. After a government inflation report revealed the worst numbers yet – far worse than expectations – the market gapped down and opened a full 3% lower than it was the day before. However, stocks immediately began to rally, and the index surged 5% that day. This was the signal that the low was in. On the other hand, in a bull market, we want to watch for times when the market goes DOWN on GOOD news. This often signals a top. And I believe we saw that on Thursday. Nvidia was the only stock that could have reversed this pullback. The earnings report was better than even the most optimistic investor had hoped. This should have absolutely put an end to the pullback and caused the market to rally higher. Instead, we saw the opposite. So, what does this mean? First of all, and let me be clear on this, I am NOT saying the market is about to crash. I simply believe the “easy money” stage is over. I expect to see fairly choppy conditions for the next few weeks or months, and investors can no longer rely on the bull market to push everything higher. I believe tech stocks have seen their highs for 2023. Those with large open gains in stocks like Meta, Amazon, Apple, Google, Nvidia and the like may consider selling to lock in those gains here. There will still be stocks that go up, some of them by substantial amounts. But I believe this is now a more selective stock picker’s market. Personally, I sold the index funds in my long-term account and moved to cash ( I also went short the Nasdaq via QID). As of yesterday, those index funds funds were up 37% year-to-date. That is a phenomenal year, and I do not want to risk giving those gains back. To me, this is a low-risk decision. The worst-case scenario is that I am wrong or something material changes that propels stocks higher. If this happens, and the Nasdaq makes new highs this year, I will simply buy those funds back. All I will have missed is a 6% move.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by rossgivens
79
NVDA Earnings Outlook:High Premium, Potential Post-Earnings DropNASDAQ:NVDA trades at a premium, with a P/E ratio of 277, towering over the sector median P/E of 25.56 and the S&P 500's P/E of 24.50. Its EV/EBIT is also remarkably high at 207.38 against the sector median of 19.45, signaling significant market sentiment. The options market's pricing in a potential $50 move,trading well above recommended levels 50-day EMA, suggesting that it might be overbought. While there may be a continued run-up leading to earnings, a post-earnings drop is anticipated. Target levels post-earnings could be $433, $419, and $400. Play the run-up but be cautious to sell the news.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Solidified
Take Profit Screener Tutorial (EN)Hi all, I'm going to introduce you to the Take Profit Screener tool. It allows you to manually scan your watchlist so to determine at a glance the assets that would give you the best profitability potential. It is a 2 in 1 tool that allows you to : identify where your Take Profit ratios are located whether you are in SHAD or Cycle Strategy identify the potential reward percentages when approaching the key Fibonacci levels Thanks for watching Waiting for your feedback. enjoy ;-)
Education
by boursicotman