Community ideas
Another Tight Range on the S&P 500The S&P 500 is forming another tight range. Will it break out or break down?
Today’s chart of the E-mini futures considers patterns that could argue either way. We’ll begin with some potentially bearish points.
First is the May 1 high, slightly above the April 18 peak. Prices failed to clear this resistance and quickly fell back into the range. That’s a potentially bearish false breakout.
Second, two lower studies could suggest the upside is fading. The Advance / Decline Line has been inching lower for almost a month. MACD has also been negative since the last week of April. (MACD could be useful because it turned lower before the drops of late December and late February.)
However, bulls might see things differently. They could view the 4068 zone as important support because it was the monthly low in April that’s holding again in May. It’s also near the spot where ES1! peaked on March 22, so old resistance might have become new support. (This level roughly matches 4050 on the cash index.)
Next, the price area reflects approximately a 38.2 percent retracement of the move between March 13 and May 1. Finding new support so high, above the 50 percent retracement line, could suggest buyers outnumber sellers.
Finally, the Nasdaq-100 has been hitting new nine-month highs. Some investors may complain about leadership being concentrated in a small set of megacap growth stocks. However, these companies led the broader market lower in late 2021. If they’re in the driver’s seat again, it could suggest further gains are coming for ES1!.
In the near-term, attention is focused the debt ceiling. Then there’s a big cluster of events June 13-14 (CPI and a Federal Reserve meeting.) It could be interesting to see how the price action plays out, given the technicals cited above and the approaching catalysts.
Trading futures just got more accessible after TradeStation slashed commissions! Click our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
Quick post: Simple and Powerful Adam and Eve Pattern on DXYThe US Dollar index is one of the most important indexes one can watch to position themselves for long term moves in a wide range of markets. There is its role in currency markets, US equities, bond, anti-fiats like precious metals and cryptocurrencies.
For a basic primer: www.investopedia.com
As a quick post this is simply looking at the basics of chart formations and not going deeper. No indicators used. The Adam and eve reversal pattern can be found as a type of double top or double bottom. Here it is a double bottom.
The targeting for this pattern is roughly the 0.786 fib level which falls within the previous high bull trap. I do not see much further upside. Any over-performance would probably be a double top around 115
Long Term the Dollar has a lot of volatility to go through. Way more than people expect. The fact remains that the dollar index is in a decades long falling wedge with many upside targets yet to be reached. I discovered this wedge independently and I don't know of anyone who shared the draw publicly before me. The allegations of dollar death are going to appear really accurate when the dollar is back around 70 before going up above 140. But that is in decades to come.
My trades:
I have taken of my margin long positions in crypto for a while with the exception of one where I was stopped out. I have margin short Matic performing quite well. I am suffering a painful loss of USD value from my Optimism position and having the Matic short perform is helping me hold that position.
Future trades
When this DXY move goes to target it will be time to look for crypto entries. A little physical silver due to how it strengthens my hands. It should be on discount after a wee bit of a dollar pump.
ASX 200 bulls eye another crack at 7300 (Australia 200 CFD)The possible 'sympathy bounce' towards 7300 highlighted last week played out nicely. Whilst we're on guard for bearish momentum to return as part of the seasonal 'sell in May and go away', we retain a bullish bias over the near-term.
Prices have since pulled back from those highs and price action on the intraday chart appears to be corrective, in the form of a falling wedge (a bullish continuation pattern). It's forming a base around the 38.2% Fibonacci level and above the 50% retracement line, whilst RSI (14) is forming a bullish divergence.
- From here, bulls could consider bullish setups above 7226 in anticipation of a move higher
- The bias remains bullish above 7220
- The wedge pattern suggests an upside target near the base of 7300
Growth/Losses of All Altcoins Excluding Eth vs. BitcoinHere's a look at major peaks and valleys in Bitcoin and Total3 (total altcoin market excluding Ethereum) starting from the Dec 2017 peak until now. First, a key to follow along:
Key:
- Solid Green/Red Lines = Peaks/Valleys occurring during the same week or day between both markets
- Dotted Green/Red Lines = Peaks/Valleys where dates deviate between the two markets
Traditionally peaks and valleys have happened around the same time, sometimes with minor deviation where altcoin market's peak or valley occurs shortly after Bitcoin's, if not on the same week or day, and altcoins as a whole have typically shown stronger losses than Bitcoin from peak to valley, in the past.
After the 2017/18 peaks, Total3 lost more, in less time, than Bitcoin. It peaked a few weeks later and then bottomed on the same week.
More recently, that deviation has grown in length and changed in scope. Here's how:
March 2020 low through the April/May peak:
--Total3 moved stronger and for longer (by just under a month) than Bitcoin. It typically does move stronger, but moves tend to end nearer to each other than what happened here.
November 2021 ATH to our most recent ATL:
-- Despite many alts having steeper losses than Bitcoin, as a whole Total3 lost approximately 3% less than Bitcoin and its valley occurred 6 weeks after Bitcoin's. In this case, it moved weaker than Bitcoin and has shown the longest deviation in the time it took to do so.
About a month ago, around April 13th, Bitcoin made a new local high. Altcoins haven't yet followed. Interesting, right?
That said, we still don't know for sure whether Bitcoin is headed towards a new peak or a new valley. Let's see how this plays out.
Pound to break 1.27 amid BOE rate hike?On Monday, the dollar continued to show weakness against most of its major counterparts as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's acknowledgement of the end of its hiking cycle, while also hedging against the risk of a potential recession. Traders are also keeping an eye on the debt ceiling impasse in Capitol Hill, with the Treasury Secretary warning of possible inability to pay debts by June 1. On Wednesday, U.S. inflation data is expected to indicate whether the Fed needs to take further steps to control inflation.
The pound rose to a more than one-year peak against the dollar on Monday, trading as high as $1.2668, its highest level since April 2022, before slipping slightly below that to $1.2616. The pound is in focus this week ahead of an anticipated Bank of England rate increase on Thursday, expected by many to raise the base rate to 4.5% after voting 7-2 in March to increase it from 4% to 4.25%.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is above the 30-SMA for now, and the RSI is above 50 (although weakening). The price paused at the 1.2650 resistance level after a strong upward movement and is maybe reversing now, with resistance turned support (1.2075) the target to keep an eye on next to the downside. Negative developments with any of the concerns affecting the US or BOE’s rate hike will put 1.650 and 1.2700 in the crosshairs to the upside if the price begins to consolidate where it is now until Thursday.
Introducing The TradingView Show!Ladies and gentlemen, traders, investors, and market enthusiasts from around the world, the wait is over! We're thrilled to announce the launch of our new live show (and soon podcast) The TradingView Show! 🎙️🔴🎬
Guests of the show are experienced TradingView members and they use TradingView just like you. Our show strives to accomplish 3 important things:
1. Discuss the fascinating world of financial markets in an open format, always free, so anyone, anywhere, can become more informed.
2. Shine light on the fascinating stories, experiences, and wisdoms from fellow TradingView members including the time, patience, and hard work it takes to survive in markets.
3. Encourage new traders and investors to study, research, and learn the underlying principles of markets before risking hard earned money.
We recently finished filming our seventh episode and linked the every episode below. Each episode is filled with insights that'll help you think more deeply about markets including what it takes to be a trader or investor. Before you begin watching, please always remember our show is not advice or endorsement. Our show is focused on education, preparation, and community - be sure to follow your favorite guests!
Episode 1 - Live with @norok on trading windows, the importance of automation, and his journey in markets. Watch it here .
Episode 2 - Live with @WillSebastian on candle counting and wicks. Watch it here.
Episode 3 - Live with @EvanMedeiros on quant trading, rigorous backtesting, and finding an edge. Watch it here.
Episode 4 - Live with @TheChartGuys on new trader mistakes, lessons learned, and why you need a notepad. Watch it here.
Episode 5 - Live with @TASMarketProfile on trading in the pit, building indicators, and wisdom of the market. Watch it here.
Episode 6 - Live with @MarcPMarkets on why you should always know who you're trading against, the realities of markets, and the time it takes to master trading. Watch it here.
Episode 7 - Live with @JimHuangChicago on the crash of Silicon Valley Bank, the complexity of banking, and event driven trading strategies. Watch it here.
If you have any questions or comments, please let us know below. You can also request a guest by writing their name in the comments. We look forward to hearing your feedback!
- TradingView ❤️
#OKXIDEAS - Is The Bitcoin Sell-Off Over ?Hi folks,
Foreword: Please read the whole article, I believe this will help you to enhance your point of view. If you like it, do not hesitate to hit the "LIKE" button. 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Fundamental Data
📌I've been closely monitoring Bitcoin's recent price movements, particularly in light of the FED's recent announcement regarding interest rates, to assess the potential impact on the cryptocurrency market and identify key trading opportunities.
📌Most likely, the FED has completed its interest rate-hiking cycle.
📌With the partnership with eToro, Twitter users will be able to view market charts and trade cryptocurrencies and other assets thanks to a wider range of financial tools. Additionally, the collaboration between the social media platform and fintech company will expand Twitter's "cashtags" feature, which currently allows users to view real-time trading data from TradingView. I believe that in the near future, this will be the most significant part of the bull rally.
Technical Data
📌BTCUSDT 1D Logarithmic Chart
📌When we look at the Fibonacci Retracement levels:
--> 0,5 is our major PIVOT (42257 Yellow Line)
--> 28263 is our key support (Fib 0,236)
--> 36K is the next target (Fib 0,382)
📌White Zone is --> 50 Days Accumulation Zone
📌Red Trend Line --> Bearish Resistance till November 2021 (69K), which was finally broken on 12 January 2023. Following the resistance breaking we saw perfect RETEST on 10 March 2023.
📌Right after the RETEST process #BTC has started its own relief rally (I will explain why I called it a "relief rally" in the further part of this article).
📌The Bitcoin price showed an increase of nearly 55% right after this "RETEST".
Bonus Chart 1 - Short-Term BTC Target
📌When we look at the short-term data (12 Hours Chart) shows there is an ascending symmetrical triangle formation on the table.
📌Elliot Triangle Waves points to 35 - 36 K as a target, which is also a long-term (1D Chart) resistance level.
Bonus Chart 2 - Awesome Oscillator - MACD Combo
📌When we look at AO+MACD Indicator --> It gave us a strong buy signal simultaneously with the restest level (right after the breaking long-term bearish trend resistance).
📌AO+MACD Indicators give us new buy signals nowadays (needs good news).
Bonus Chart 3 - Fixed Range Volume Profile
📌FRVP says that 27850 is a short-term pivot
-->Above 27850 is Bullish
-->Below 27850 is Bearish
-->30430 is a strong resistance
On-Chain Data
Bonus Chart 4 - All Exchanges Stable Coin Inflow
📌While not providing a definitive answer, this data creates a positive expectation. We can simply think that market makers can buy coins (this is only an expectation).
Bonus Chart 5 - MVRV Z-Score
📌MVRV Z-Score indicates that we are no longer in the bottom zone, which is also bullish.
Bonus Chart 6 - Pi Cycle Top Indicator
📌111DMA is a key level (it was resistance, now support) for the relief rally. I believe when an asset completed its' own rally it needs to go back to the Fib 0,5 level (half of it). Bitcoin's Bearish run has been completed from 69K to 15-16K area. We can see a relief rally till Fib 0,5 level, which is also approximately the same level as Pi Cycle 350DMA (42 - 44K).
📌350DMA is another key level for the next bull rally, whenever Bitcoin price breaks this level it has a huge bull rally. You can do the back-test.
Final words: If you read till here mate, I knew you loved it. I will appreciate if you leave a comment (whether positive or negative criticism).
See you in the next detailed one! 🤟🏼🤟🏼
#OKX #OKXIDEAS #TRADINGVIEW
Why Russell Index the most Reflective for Bank Run Crisis?Russell represents the true economy of United States.
There are 2,000 medium size companies with each value between $300m to $2b. The index includes a diverse range of companies from various sectors, including financials, healthcare, consumer goods, industrials, and technology. In my opinion Russell represents the true economy of united states.
If the bank run crisis deepens, it is possible that 2,000 companies will not hold up well. The reasons for this are stated in the video. This could affect the other major indices, with the Russell 2000 potentially leading the pack. The Russell 2000 is considered more reflective of the US economy compared to the other major indices with big names like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures & Option
Outright:
0.10 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures
Outright:
0.10 index points = $0.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures & Option
Outright:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Index Futures & Option
Outright:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures
Outright:
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
GS Bear FlagGS bear flag formation and double top pattern, with a clear RSI bearish divergence in formation.
Goldman Sachs has been making a series of higher lows on the 2H time frame and had shown no sign of weakness. However, after the recent failure of First Republic Bank, FRC, the spotlight is back on the banking sector. FRC assets were sized by the FDIC the past week and JPMorgan stepped in to buy the failed bank. And while the President assures all deposits are fine, and Jerome Powell assures the banking industry is solid; we also have Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger shedding huge positions in banks and sounding the alarm on the banking industry.
Goldman Sachs looks bearish on a break below $338.50. Demand area at $338.50-$340. Resistance at $345. A stock to have on watch this week as we have the interest rate decision this week and FOMC!
Our OptionsSwing Terminal picked up bearish activity on the $332.50 strike for this week at $0.85.
Russell 2000 is CHEAP relative to S&P500AMEX:IWM long vs AMEX:SPY short
--------------------------
This is a "spread trade" between two indexes which is sometimes called a "pairs trade". Typically a "pairs trade" is between two similar stocks in a similar industry whose fortunes are tied together to a similar end user or buyer. Imagine NYSE:KO and NASDAQ:PEP (Coca-Cola vs Pepsi) as a decent example.
The typical "pairs trade" swings back and forth on expectations from different economic environments. The Russell 2000 ( AMEX:IWM and CME_MINI:RTYM2023 ) can be influenced by perceptions of interest rates and projections of economic activity. The rationale is that smaller companies like those in the Russell have higher dependency on borrowed money and will be hurt more in an economic contraction. They don't have the international reach and have more risk to the domestic economy and have lower borrowing capacity, which makes them overall more risky.
This isn't necessarily true, but it is the way the market views this trade and what gives it the potential to generate returns.
What this ratio tells me here is that expectations are very low for Russell 2000 companies and very high for S&P500 companies and that there may be risk to that assumption. Therefore, we should research into the actual facts and see if that is true.
The fact is that here at current levels the Russell2000 has lagged the S&P500 Index by 30% from the high in 2021 but in order for this ratio to move back to the levels of 2017-2018-2021, it would need to advance by over 45%.
How much do we risk in this trade here? The average "monthly" range in this ratio is about 4%, so we can risk about 4%-5% and admit we are wrong if the ratio slides under 0.41 (the bottom of the green box). The upside? Let's see how it moves, but the goal initially would be a gain of 3x the average monthly range or 12%-15%.
Tim 11:11AM EST 5/1/2023
A traders week ahead playbook - managing risk like a ninjaThere are weeks when the landmines by which traders must navigate are seen in such abundance, where the implications for market pricing are so meaningful, that we manage risk well or we simply get schooled - this week seems to be one of these.
As we look down the calendar we see marquee catalysts everywhere – earnings, central bank meetings and tier-one economic data – what’s more, they’ve given the UK a holiday to get the mindset on point.
It's all there, yet interestingly implied levels of volatility over the week remain subdued, and traders are simply not betting on broad cross-asset volatility. We’ll see if that aggregated view on volatility is priced correctly, but it certainly feels like many of the questions being asked will be partly answered this week.
Subdued volatility aside, the set-ups are there to entice – the NAS100 will look to Apple’s numbers, but price (in the index) has broken the consolidation phase and while breakouts have limited success, the upside target of 13,800 from the bull flag remains a real risk and the pain trade.
The US500 is having another crack at 4160 resistance – we saw a series of failed breaks in Feb, but is this time different? With all talk about awful breadth and so much of the heavy lifting done by Apple and Microsoft we see this leadership hasn’t given up yet, and a firm break of 4160 and many will be chasing the index to 4300.
The JPY crosses saw big moves on Friday and will continue to garner much attention this week – we’ve seen some huge breaks of significant resistance levels – pull up a daily chart of CHFJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY and the question will be “to chase or not to chase”? I am sure many will be fading this move, but I am keen to let the buyers push this a little further, notably in USDJPY where the scalper in me has the 137.60/70 area in firm focus. The real action for the JPY comes into June where tactically I see a strong bullish backdrop in the making, but for now, the JPY is the weakest link.
AUDUSD held the 0.6584 range low last week and a poor China PMI (released Sunday) won't do longs many favours. Good support was seen here last week, but I would have preferred price to print a bullish outside day on Friday and that failed. The pair still looks heavy, and a close below 0.6584 would get a lot of attention.
Gold continues to consolidate – although you can flip it to XAUJPY and see a firm rally to new highs. I like a momentum move in XAUUSD and would be a buyer of strength through HKEX:2012 – that may not come, but a “body in motion stays in motion” approach is compelling. The trade will need buyers in US Treasuries, a steeper yield curve and US 5yr real rates headed through 1.14% (they currently sit at 1.23%).
Anyhow, plenty of going on – get in front of the screens and question where you see the balance of risk – or as is typically the best way in times like this, be agile, react like a ninja and be a slave to price action.
Marquee event risks for the week ahead
Treasury Secretary Yellen to announce the debt ceiling X-date (2-5 May) - Not a volatility event in itself, but the start of a process that could get blanket market attention going into July – where the market should give the debt ceiling far more consideration once we know the X-date; the explicit point when the US Treasury start having to cut back on essential payments.
FOMC meeting (4 May 04:00 AEST / Jay Powell press conference 04:30) - A 25bp hike seems a done deal – could this mark a temporary end to the Fed’s tightening hiking cycle? We see 79/98 economists calling a 25bp hike, with the market pricing an 85% chance of this outcome. With just 5bp of hikes priced for the June FOMC meeting, the market expects strong signals that a pause is coming. With inflation still highly elevated the risks are skewed to a hawkish hike. I see two-way risks for the USD through this meeting.
ECB meeting (4 May 22:15 AEST) - A 25bp hike to 3.75% is not just fully priced, there is a small premium for 50 bp. Positioning will be important, with the market long of EUR's and expecting to remain hawkish. There will be a focus on the upcoming wall of TLTRO repayment for EU banks and whether the ECB offer a short-term bridge to offset any potential liquidity issues for EU banks - the market sees the peak/terminal rate of 3.62%, implying 3 more 25bp hikes – does this seem correctly priced? EURJPY and EURAUD are the vehicles for the EUR bulls. EURGBP favoured into the range low of 0.8730.
US nonfarm payrolls (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The consensus is for 180k jobs (the economist’s range of 265k to 125k), which would be the lowest number of job additions since Dec 2020 - the U/E rate is eyed at 3.6% (unchanged), with average hourly earnings expected unchanged at 4.2% yoy. The NFP takes place after the FOMC meeting, so the outcome could influence June FOMC rates/OIS pricing. A number below 150k could hit the USD and boost the NAS100.
EU CPI (2 May 19:00 AEST) – the outcome could heavily shape pricing for the ECB meeting 2 days later – the market consensus is that we see headline core CPI (estimate) at 7% (from 6.9%), with core CPI at 5.6% (5.7%) with the economists range seen between 5.8% to 5.5% – EURUSD trades a 1.0900 to 1.1100 range – happy to be guided by this, but the market seems skewed for an upside break.
RBA meeting (2 May 14:30 AEST) - The market prices a 12% chance of 25bp hike for this meeting, which despite the base case for a hold, seems to be priced on the low side - Leverage funds are long AUD but real money are short - the market is priced for an extended pause from the RBA, which should limit the downside in AUD. Huge support at 0.6580 in AUDUSD, and happy to revisit shorts on a closing break.
US JOLTS jobs openings (3 May 00:00 AEST) - The consensus is that jobs openings fall to 9.725m (from 9.931m) - we've seen jobs openings steadily fall since March 2022 - a drop below 9.7m could be a positive for risk and be a small negative for the USD.
ISM manufacturing report (2 May 00:00 AEST) – the consensus sees the index at 46.8 (46.3) - a weak number, but less so than the prior month - one for the recession callers will be keen to point out, while crude holds a strong relationship with the new orders sub-component.
Euro Bank Lending survey - We look for intel on a tightening of bank lending standards - EU rates pricing, the EUR, and EU bank equity firmly in focus.
ISM services (4 May 00:00 AEST) - The market sees the index at 51.8 (from 51.2) – in essence, US service sector data continue to show the US is growing, but below trend.
April Employment report (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The market looks for 20k net jobs to be added, with the U/R at 5.1% - the market sees the BoC on hold in June, with rate cuts priced from Q3 and its hard to see this jobs report affecting pricing too intently. USDCAD is finding better sellers of late, and a break of 1.3531 may accelerate the move lower.
NZ Q1 Employment report (3 May 08:45 AEST) - The market looks for the U/R of 3.6%, with an employment change +1.8% - could get attention from FX traders, but unlikely to be a significant vol event for the NZD. That said, I see risks NZDUSD trades to 0.6250.
Apple earnings on 5/4/23Apple earnings are on 5/4/23 at 4:30pm. Apple (AAPL) Q2 March 2023 consensus earnings estimate is 1.44 per share on revenue of 92.94 billion. The same quarter a year ago AAPL made 1.54 per share on revenue of 97.28 billion.
Q2 March 2023 Consensus:
PE = 28.8
EPS = 1.44
Revenue = 92.94 B
Apple (AAPL) reported Q1 December 2022 earnings of 1.88 per share on revenue of 117.2 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was 1.93 per share on revenue of 122.1 billion. Revenue fell 5.5% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
Q1 December 2022 Results:
PE = 25.8
EPS = 1.88
Revenue = 117.2 B
Cash = 30.22 B
Debt = 99.63 B
Assets = 128.78 B
Liabilities = 137.29
I'm posting this as a short with a 10% share hedge idea going into earnings. By using a collar strategy to hold 90% of shares and 10% of shares hedged. A collar is often used for downside insurance. Implied volatility often results in IV crush after earnings if the share price does not exceed the options premium. For example: with 1000 shares held, 1 options contract equals 10% or 100 shares.
With a wide range collar strategy sell 7/21 expiry 150 call simultaneously buy 7/21 expiry 190 put. The upside / downside, risk : reward = 10% : 20% for this options wide range collar strategy. So essentially, by using the collateral value of 10% shares, it equals 20% downside risk insurance for all 1000 shares for 3 months. If AAPL share price exceeds 170 after earnings, it only takes a +11% upside move to 189 / share of 900 shares to have the same share value as 1000 shares had at 170 / share.
*options use 100x leverage you could lose everything*
There are many types of options trading strategies and positions, simple to sophisticated & hybrids. I group them into theta, delta or mix strategies and bull, bear or neutral positions. There's a buy side and sell side to every trade. If you check the open interest (OI), you can see how liquid it is. Check how wide the bid vs ask spread is.
Theta:
iron condor
iron fly
covered call
cash secured put
calendar spread
collar
Delta:
call
put
straddle
strangle
debit spread
credit spread
Bull:
call
put credit spread
call debit spread
cash secured put
Bear:
put
call credit spread
put debit spread
covered call
Neutral:
straddle
strangle
iron condor
iron fly
collar (often used for downside insurance)
calendar spread (short or long time)
Options important variables:
Strike = share price
itm, atm, otm = strike position
Expiry = Date of expiration
Value = H, L & Mark
Liquidity = bid vs ask spread
Direction = put or call
OI = open interest
V = volume
IV = implied volatility
Delta = price
Theta = time
Vega = volatility
Gamma = momentum
What are all types of BTC adresses doing? Just recently, we remarked on Bitcoin’s positive reaction to weakness in the U.S. banking sector. We said that, potentially, Bitcoin started to show the first signs of maturing as an asset Furthermore, we said that we would pay very close attention to its price action during the banking earnings season. Intriguingly, Bitcoin started to drop with solid earnings from major banks (marking the top above 31 000$ on the same day as JPM, C, and WFC reported their earnings). However, a few days later, it started to show signs of strength as regional banks (mainly First Republic Bank) revealed persisting problems in the industry (followed by FRC shares dropping more than 49% on 25th April 2023 and another 29% yesterday).
In the same time span, Bitcoin rebounded from 26 931$ back to 30 000$. As this raises more questions about Bitcoin maturing as an asset (and becoming what it was intended to be), we think it is important to look at Bitcoin addresses to determine whether this might be only a temporary shift or a lasting trend. For this purpose, we will focus on a period starting in November 2022, which marked the 2022 lows for Bitcoin and coincided with a big expansion of Bitcoin addresses.
Addresses with balances of more than 0.01 BTC, 0.1 BTC, and 1 BTC (first category - small investors)
Based on the information obtained from LookIntoBitcoin, Bitcoin addresses with more than 0.01 BTC in the balance stood at 10 816 039 on 1st November 2022. This figure rose to 11 774 869 on 25th April 2023, marking an increase of 8.8% (accounting for a 2% increase from 1st March 2023 until 25th April 2023).
Addresses with more than 0.1 BTC rose approximately 11.92% from 1st November 2022 until 25th April 2023 (from 3 855 510 to 4 315 213 addresses); meanwhile, the increase in the number of addresses from 1st March 2023 until 25th April 2023 amounted to 1.8%.
Next, Bitcoin addresses with more than 1 BTC in holdings stood at 909 577 on 1st November 2022. This figure rose to 994 701 on 25th April 2023, representing a 9.37% increase over the past six months (but showing only a 1.23% increase between 1st March 2023 and 25th April 2023).
Overall, all three types of addresses in the “small investor” category saw relatively significant increases (with big spikes in the number of addresses following November 2022 lows).
Addresses with balances of more than 0.01 BTC, 0.1 BTC, and 1 BTC (first category - medium investors)
As for Bitcoin addresses with more than 10 BTC in the balance, these rose from 150 873 on 1st November 2022 to 155 967 on 25th April, showing a growth of 3.37%. Meanwhile, these addresses rose only 0.28% between 1st March 2023 (from 155 522) and 25th April 2023. The growth in the number of addresses in this category was significantly less than in the previous category of “small investors.”
Addresses with balances of more than 100 BTC and 1000 BTC (third category - large investors)
Addresses with more than 100 BTC in the balance saw an uptick from 15 848 on 1st November 2022 to 16 160 on 19th December 2022. However, as the price increased, these addresses slowly declined (until reaching 16 018 on 8th April 2023). Interestingly, at that time, Bitcoin reached 28 600$, and the number of addresses started to shrink very quickly (suggesting that big players were unloading their holdings into the hands of smaller investors, just like we speculated); the number fell to 15 819 on 16th April 2023, accompanying Bitcoin above 30 000$. Then, once Bitcoin started to drop below this critical level, the number of addresses rose slightly (reaching 15 891 on 25th April 2023).
Finally, the most prominent addresses carrying more than 1 000 BTC amounted to 2 135 on November 2022; however, this figure dropped to only 2 019 addresses on 25th April 2023, marking a 5.43% decrease (and a decrease of nearly 20% from an all-time high of 2 490 on 8th February 2021).
Growth trends among addresses in the “large investors” category paint a stark contrast to what is going on in the preceding two categories. With that said, we think it is very likely that we are seeing merely a temporary shift in Bitcoin reacting to the banking sector. Based on this discrepancy, we continue to think that small investors are buying from more savvy traders and will end up holding the bag in the end (which we warned about already a few weeks ago). Because of that, we think it is important to be very cautious, especially as market volatility is picking up as fast as it is.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
EURAUD And Using Entry Confirmation In Bull RunsHey Traders,
Sometimes the best indicators are ones you can't apply to the chart.
That being Price Action. When used correctly Via lower TFs... You can get a way better deal.
That is because you do not race in large.
Watch for more and post Qs if you got em.
Tim's Guess for Mortgage Rates for 2023I thought I would publish this "guess" for the sheer entertainment value to show the dramatic increase in mortgage rates and to put in perspective the damage that has likely been done to the purchasing power of home buyers.
The Fed has engineered an attempt to shut down an excessive spending to cool the economy down and we are all waiting for reverberations to indicate that they have been successful.
M2 money supply, which I will add on a follow-on chart, is declining at a sharp rate which is indicative of recession ahead. I believe this M2 money supply contraction is a sign that mortgage rates will fall and here is a "guess" just to put a guess out there.
There is 1 datapoint per week for this series and you can see the box that represents a week as shown with a gray box around the blue line.
I added the 2008 contraction for reference.
Let's see what happens.
I hope this is wrong because it will mean that the economy is falling sharply, but also it would imply that the Fed believes it will have conquered inflation.
Tim West
April 26, 2023 9:54AM
What is GEX?Gex is short for Gamma Exposure.
I started tracking gamma exposure over a year ago. In fact I posted an idea with a really good explanation idea of gamma exposure but the idea was banned and I never got around to reposting.
So many private messages asking me to explain GEX, I decided to repost the banned post without the restricted content in it. If you want the restricted content, send me a message and I will send you the link
==== Original Idea posted March 6th 2022 ========
I finished updating the simple GEX tool. This tool is for educational purposes only and gives a very basic/naive overview of gamma exposure for any Ticker.
So What is GEX?
GEX stands for Gamma EXposure. Options are derivatives of financial assets that give investors more.. options. Gamma is the rate of change in an options delta per 1-point move in the underlying asset's price. When someone buys an option, there is typically a market maker (dealer) that needs to sell that option to you. Because the dealer does not want to take directional risk on the other side of the option, they hedge the option by buying or selling the underlying asset. As the price changes, the dealer must continuously make changes to that hedge to remain delta neutral.
Gamma Exposure, in this tool's case, Naive Gamma Exposure is an estimated measurement of gamma exposure that a dealer has taken on based on the full options chain's open interest. It is an estimate because nobody really knows if an option's open interest was bought or sold to a dealer.
Negative\Positive Gamma is hedged differently by dealers. If a dealer is positive gamma they will sell the rally (price up) and buy the dips (price down). Positive gamma creates a supportive and less volatile, more liquid market. If a dealer is negative gamma they will buy the rally and sell the dips. Negative gamma creates more selling pressure and more volatility, an illiquid market.
Zero Gamma or Gamma Flip is the assumed point at which dealers would flip from negative gamma exposure to positive. When the dealer is positive gamma, the Zero Gamma strike will usually act as support. When the dealer is negative gamma, the Zero Gamma strike acts as resistance.
GEX can measure individual asset gamma exposure but is more effective at measuring overall market indexes such as SPX and NDX. GEX shouldn’t be used as a directional measurement, but more of a volatility indicator.
Notional GEX is the dealers notional (total dollars) exposure in 1% move in the underlying assets price. If SPX is -20B for example, dealers will have to buy 20 billion in underlying shares for every 1% move up, or sell 20 billion for every 1% move down.
Option Quotes are delayed by 15 minutes from the open and close of the Regular Trading Hours.
Disclaimer: The GEX tool is meant to be used for educational purposes only. It is NOT meant to be used for/as financial advice. Use at your own risk.
The reason I included the JHEQX HEF Pin is because of how the different expirations effect the markets at different times.
The general idea I like to emphasize in my naive understanding of these market mechanics is TIME.
Notice in the following ideas from the past 3 months all have the 4165 HEF Pin in the forecast.
This is only possible by calculating the Gamma Exposure of the options sold to JPM and making some assumptions (next time).
