Sterling stands as this week’s G10 laggard as Brexit...Sterling stands as this week’s G10 laggard as Brexit pessimism took the helm, with the fallout from the mid-week dinner between PM Johnson and EC’s VdL highlighting the outstanding differences and prompted both sides to play down the chances of a deal, with VdL and Johnson both stating a no-deal Brexit is the most likely outcome. Talks were given a “deadline” of Sunday, although a German official floated the possibility that talks may need a few days beyond this. From a domestic standpoint, the Thursday data-dump, saw GDP growth slowing to 0.4% MM in October from 1.1% in the prior month, manufacturing output increasing 1.7% MM in October and the trade balance flipped to a GBP 1.7bln deficit from a GBP 613mln surplus a month earlier, although the metrics were unsurprisingly overlooked. Sterling unwound the Brexit optimism that was baked in the prior week, with Cable sliding from its 1.3478 weekly peak to a base a 1.3134, taking out its 21 and 50 DMAs in the process and with the 100 DMA residing around 1.3090. Meanwhile, EUR/USD looks set for a flat close in what has been a busy week for the Eurozone (barring Brexit), from a monetary and fiscal front. First, the ECB’s policy announcement largely fell in-line with consensus whereby rates were maintained, PEPP expanded by EUR 500bln but extended by 9 months (vs exp. 6- or 12-months), TLTRO further calibrated and extended by 12 months. President Lagarde at the presser provided little by way of concrete commentary for markets to grip on, and remarks around the EUR were reiterations, although sources highlighted split views in the GC regarding the size of the PEPP expansion, the tweaks to TLTROIII and the economic outlook. Verbal intervention also came from GC member Villeroy who stated the central bank is vigilant on the exchange rate and all instruments are available on this. On the fiscal front, Hungary and Poland reached a deal to withdraw its veto of the EU budget and recovery fund and thus neutralising threats of delays. EUR/USD heads to the European close with a 1.21+ status having had notched 1.2558-1.2123 weekly band.
