Indextrading
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash.
*Equity Futures are up to start the week and Cryptos are currently seeing some Sunday Scaries, this particular combination typically bodes well for the Equity bulls in Monday's trading session. DXY is up and US Treasuries are down. Today Russia accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a 'dirty bomb' (an explosive with radioactive elements) with hopes of blaming Russia for using weapons of mass destruction and instigating a response from NATO . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24 ; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently trending up at ~$3752 after bouncing from $3658 minor support, the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume is currently High (low) and trading in the third largest supply/demand zone as it broke a three day streak of seller dominance with a green close in Friday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3507, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 51 as it approaches a retest of 52.68 resistance for the first time since 09/12/22. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 88 in the 'bullish autobahn zone', as long as it stays above ~85 this would still be bullish. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -43.84 resistance for the first time since July of this year. ADX is currently trending down at 29.36 as Price keeps pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance before potentially retesting the 50 MA at ~$3900 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3658.
DXY I LONG to follow its historical growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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#Nifty Nifty Levels for 21-10-22
Support: 17400/17350
Resistance 17600
Look for buy neat support and sell near to resistance
S&P500 For the first time since the COVID sell off the SP:SPX closed the WEEK below the 200 SMA at 3583 points, for the previous three weeks the index was trying to test the support of the 200 SMA but after the heavy selling pressure in the other indexes TVC:DJI NASDAQ:IXIC and NASDAQ:NDX .
SP:SPX has broken the support to the downside and most of the stocks are closing at the lowest prices after breaking most of the medium and long-term supports. on the other hand, the indicators are confirming the same view as the RSI is below its moving average at 36 level, also the stochastic is still giving sell and weakness signals.
A small rebound is expected as a correction in the very short term closing the long positions, and opening short positions are recommended.
wouldnt be surprised to see overbought pullbacktop of envelope is typically a pullback level when estimate is changing directions. sss ma is resistive and supply zone is sinking. i wouldnt be surprised to see a pattern similar to the ghost feed.
US30 technical setup home work levels.. trading in the zone, itl, volume ponit of control,, balance and imbalance .. look the the price reaction..
The OPEC Supply Cut Effect will push the price = $110My bias,the market was overall bearish before the change in trends as a result of the double bottom chart pattern at around the .0 Fib level.
The latest cut of crude supply to the global market by opec will bring a rise in oil price up to 1500 Pips,ie price from current to $97 and a brief pull back before rising to $10. The would likely play out as sanctions on Russia oil left most market with lesser choice but to compete in purchase with the limited oil supply. Tell your oil producing countries to get ready for this price surge vice versa.
volatility still horror pic in the makingthe fed isnt interested in saving the market. it only cares that it delays the maximum selling until late in the year. they want choppy action because this allows them to scare retail out and institutions can scale horizontally. were likely to hit signal, sss ma, trama and rebound. uvxy is a sell if we get to top of envelope or we break pivot and continue lower. its still a buy around green signal.
betting on rip sellits fantastic that major indices are still managing to find areas of support on the way down. this to me is indicating when we do finally recover it will happen in a reliable manner. its also telling me that these areas are not max pain. to find a bottom permenantly id like to see bullishly diverged oversold levels in high volume. right now signal is still red, and trama sss ma are resistive near top of envelope. these indicators would need to show green candles before spx is a buy again.
S&P 500 to outperform Eurostoxx 50 as recession hits Europe?The S&P 500 index may perform noticeably better than the European stock market ( STOXX 50 ) in the event that the European Union experiences a sharp economic downturn.
The S&P 500 to EURO STOXX 50 ratio, which gauges the relative strength of the US stock market in comparison to the EU stock market, has been largely flat so far in 2022.
In the past, when the Euro Area economy contracted faster than that of the United States, the S&P 500 index significantly outperformed its European counterpart.
The S&P 500 gained 50% more than the EURO STOXX 50 between August 2001 and December 2003, at a time when the Euro Area's GDP growth was materially lower to that of the United States.
The S&P 500 outperformed the EURO STOXX 50 by 82% between May 2007 and October 2012, as the EU economy lagged far behind the US.
More recently, from October 2017 to July 2020, the US stock market recorded another period of outperformance relative to the European stock market, with the S&P 500 rising 56% relative to the EURO STOXX 50 amid a global economic downturn and the pandemic outbrake.
What is coming up next? The EURO STOXX 50 could enter another period of relative underperformance relative to the S&P 500 if another significant economic slowdown occurs in Europe due to the impact of the energy crisis and inflation on consumption and investments.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
talk about non-fungible a es1! call contract is the be allwhy do we pay so much to securitize capital? anyway were coming to a head with front month spx futures. the s&p is reacing the bottom end of envelope, and revisiting trama or sss ma seems likely. i bet if we breech pivot we see upper horizontals, and if that lwvel resistswe see lower. if vix is raging monday im still not interested in calls until we see bullish divergence. if we reverse from extremes im only interested in calls off the bottom level or bull breeches of pivot. interesting puts are around upper level. daily is bear until we see the pattern of lower highs break.
High Risk Low RewardThe S&P is not looking like a safe place to hold your assets. A huge head and shoulders may be forming on the monthly chart with a measured move down to 1787. The true support I see when taking a quick look at the chart is all the way down at 1556. RSI just made a lower low and has a long way down until oversold conditions. The MACD has painting record sell pressure. SPX looks like it's about to cliff jump!
vix should rebound, but continue fallingthe hourly is looking oversold, so id imagine we have some rebound in vix, but the overall daily trend is threatening to confirm return to bear vix while broader market bounces. if we get spx, ndx making new lows of day simultaneously with multiple sectors like xlf, soxx in the red a return to bull vix could happen (highlighted areas where nadaraya watson envelope turns up). solid horizontals are targets, dashed line is pivot.
#Banknifty#Banknifty inside bar in 1 HR
Break out on either side will give a trending move.
Keep watch
weekly picture at crossroadseither we hit this weekly sss demand zone and bounce, or we blow through it and make new lows. we are at bottom of envelope, and it appears to be turning. if sss signal stays red and we break 362.17 i thikk were in for 350.77 if not much lower around 320. if we bounce off that 363 level, and we get over the 377 range ithink were in for 396 maybe 405. horizontals dont align exactly with fib but thats because were in the middle of the retracement and havent found a bottom. the chances are low that we finish the week strong and start next week with a bounce, but i bet that when we do get a move with clairity its either a reversal around double bottom or a bearish continuation of trend.
SP500 INDEX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (REVERSAL!)Overall evaluation of the SP500 is bearish within a 1-2Y time frame mini trend, but not on the grand picture. Greetings everyone, we dumped very hard this past few days but this is a sign of a potential reversal. The fact that the candle closed as a DRAGONFLY DOJI , this is a warning for all shorters to consider that the bulls are now entering the market. The proper way to trade this signal is to wait for confirmation on the next daily candle, but seeing as how
it is a text-book perfect dragonfly doji on any manual you can find, this is especially stronger in a daily time frame.
We will probably get rejected again on the moving averages after this mini-trend change. The catalyst for the mini dump we had today was a negative sentiment report from U.S. Michigan.
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TIP:
SP500 also had a reverse hammer on the hourly charts followed by a green candle -- also called as a bullish harami.
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large cap semiconductors carrying market lower or highernasdaq us large cap semiconductors are carrying big tech right now. if they drag the market lower im bearish on the broader market. if we bounce in this group especially NVDA and AMD i think were headed for a test of the weekly lower high around 5500 translating to a $15 SOXL. if we bearflag, and head lower id imagine were in for much more of a drop. the pivot is dashed and upper/lower horizontals are solid lines. the extended line rising is the recent low linked to the all time low. if we break below this range its bearish for SOXL and the market in general.
has tech retraced enough off this bottom to hold?if we get support over this pivot and the 0.5 retracement level id imagine we would have a bull pull up to a sell the rip level. if we get resistance to this pivot i see that well have a continued selloff to lower horizontals. if we have resistance to upper horizontals i think were at a sell the rip level. if we support along lower horizontals i see that were at a buy the dip level. if we start to breech lower horizontals with volume tech is bearish, and if we start to breech upper horizontals tech is bullish. the red or green ghost feed is a path the nasdaq could follow.trama sinking and resisting is bearish. trama rising and supporting is bullish. qqe and sss red or green is long or short. if we stay short qqe and red sss it s bearish if we turn green sss and long qqe its bullish.
#BANKNIFTY Range MomentNSE:BANKNIFTY
in a small range. If break resistance. Target would be 40350. If break support, then small target would be of 40525 only.
Note: This is my personal view, only for learners
