J-OIL
Important update WTI. H4 26.09.2024WTI Important update
Past WTI oil buys didn't manage to get fully developed and the overall correction ended near the nearest resistance at 72.00. On the downside, large volume was poured at 69.65 and eventually gave a push to the downside, thus forming a sellers zone. I believe the overall upward correction is over and will break the lower boundary with downside potential to 64.50 to the block option spread. Then we will watch the culmination below if given, but for now selling is the priority.
BLACKBULL:WTI
WTI CRUDE OIL has bottomed. Buy.WTI Crude Oil has rebounded initially on Support A, a level that is holding since March 20th 2023.
At the same time the 1day RSI double bottomed the same way it did in December 2023 and May 2023.
This is a clear buy signal that is targeting the 1day MA200 and the Falling Resistance at 78.00.
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Oil, Up or Down?On the daily chart, it can be observed that crude oil has rejected the crucial 71.67 resistance as sellers entered the market to position for a drop back towards the 65 level. For the buyers, they will require the price to break above this resistance in order to start targeting the major trendline around the 76 level.
Interesting enough, there are two banks given contradictory forecast, MKTNews reports,
RABOBANK: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $70 NEXT YEAR DUE TO EMERGING SUPPLY SURPLUS
UBS: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE $80 PER BARREL AS INVENTORIES DECLINE
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Move From Confluence Zone
WTI Crude Oil tested a significant confluence zone yesterday.
That zone is based on a recently broken daily horizontal resistance
and a falling trend line.
Probabilities will be high that the price will drop from that area.
First goal - 70.45
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Crude Oil IdeaFollow up on a very old OIL idea from 2021
OIL completed 5 waves up from the COVID lows until the $130 highs, now appears to be in a multi year correction.
There is bullish divergence on MACD and TSI on 1W chart indicating possible trend change.
I think this is possibly C wave up to $100 (1:1 extension) or $115 (1.618 extension).
A break above $130 would indicate the multi year correction was completed at the $64 lows, something like below:
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 72.56
1st Support: 70.33
1st Resistance: 74.76
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WTI OIL Still bullish, targeting the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually gave us the 2 green day streak we wanted in order to turn bullish, as per our suggestion 2 weeks ago (September 10, see chart below):
Event though it marginally broke below April's Channel Down, the buying pressure it has build is similar to all 3 major Bullish Legs since June 2023. Notice how the 1D RSI forms the same Bullish Divergence (Channel Up).
However due to the lower bottom than the one we expected, we have to change our Target to 76.00, which represents a +16.60% rise from the bottom, similar to the smaller Bullish Leg of the three that started on the June 04 2024 Low.
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2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me.
comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart
key levels: 69.5 - 72
bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema.
Invalidation is above 70.7.
short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Last short term buy.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.729, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 25.961) as it pulled back to the 4H MA50 intra day. The fact that it held, suggests that it remains the short term support of this uptrend that is targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 72.50) where so far we have had three straight rejections since August.
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HighPeak Energy | HPK | Long at $15.75HighPeak Energy NASDAQ:HPK currently has a 19.5million float, 24%+ short interest, 12x P/E, and debt/equity ratio of 0.7x... all while insiders are loading up on shares (CEO grabbed $5+ million in August 2024). Something may be brewing. The oil and natural gas company's earnings are expected to rise into 2025 after taking a hit in 2024.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price for NASDAQ:HPK has been consolidating for some time now between $12 and $17. It won't trade sideways forever, but that doesn't mean it's only going up. Personally, with the amount of insider purchases and limited selling since 2022 while the stock is consolidation mode, I anticipate an upward move in the coming months or years into 2026. At $15.75, the stock is in a personal buy zone. There is a gap near $14.50 that may be closed in the near-term, but unless some abysmal company news emerges (which is counter-intuitive to insiders buying right now), the stock may be gearing up for a big move.
Target #1 = $17.40
Target #2 = $19.00
Target #3 = $20.00
Target #4 = $22.30
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Daily bars looking weak but it does not matter, it’s a small pullback bull trend and it’s going higher. Not a single bar went below the previous so we are max bullish. 72 is very likely get hit on Monday and the first bigger target is 73. There market decides if this bigger bear trend is still alive or we have found a credible bottom at 64.
Quote from last week:
comment: Selling the 4h ema on Tuesday was as perfect as it gets. Bulls bought the lows again and 65 held. Neutral around 68 because both sides have reasonable arguments.
But also this:
Given the max bearish sentiment that everyone and their dog is writing about on x, I favor the bulls to trap late bears much more than I expect continued selling but as long as bears are below the daily ema, they are in control of the market.
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: 4h tf. Look at it. Every touch is bought. Until that stops, only look for longs. Bulls are only making higher lows and higher highs. Their next target is the obvious bear trend line around 73.5/73.7. Even if bears come around and print something below 70, bulls would most likely buy it for a retest of 71.5 or 72.
Invalidation is below 68.5.
bear case: Bears who sold below 67 were trapped and market just keeps going higher. Bears gave up completely on Thursday and Friday was most likely bulls taking profits and opex things why we stalled. Until bears print something below 69, they have no arguments as of now. Sure we are still inside the bear channel but the upper trend line is still almost 400 ticks away. Best they can probably get is sideways movement 70-72.
Invalidation is above 72.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 68. I have alerts and wait for one side to clearly take control again. Slightly favoring the bulls if they stay above 68 and get momentum going again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68.65 and now we are at 71. Bad outlook. Bulls took over completely. I still think it was a surprise since market did not even retest anything below 67. Would give the outlook again.
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull trend lines from the 4h tf.
OIL LONG 15M TF🚀The Atom Signals Trading View Indicator is a sophisticated tool designed for traders seeking to enhance their market analysis and trading strategies. Developed with the intention of providing clear and actionable signals, this indicator leverages a blend of technical analysis techniques to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. It aims to simplify the decision-making process by offering visual cues and alerts, which can be particularly valuable for both novice and experienced traders.🤖
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Brent Oil Resistance Rejection IdeaDescription: Brent oil is approaching a key resistance level. This level previously acted as support, but after being broken, it has now turned into resistance. If the price revisits this area, there’s a high probability of rejection based on past price action.
Trade Idea:
Watch for the price to approach the resistance level.
If there are signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns or declining momentum), this could be a good opportunity for a short position.
Set a stop-loss slightly above the resistance level in case the price breaks through.
Potential target: Previous support level.
OIL: Day 3 breakout traders long in the marketHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, I won't exclude the possibility for this market to setup for a long trade, the market performed a higher high on the HOW and started dropping, currently consolidating.
Short: primary, Day 3 long breakout traders, HOW, is most of the time a reversal signal, but considering the overall level and behaviour of price, before NY session start I can see more a pump and dump. Price still on the frontside, so I won't be looking for a dump all the way down back to the LOW, unless news release at 10:30am NYT will be catalyst.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 72.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 74.66
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 69.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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CRUDE OIL RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL will be retesting a resistance level of 72.72$ soon
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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